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Election marathon 2018-2020 in Poland


pawian 157 | 9,053
26 Jan 2019  #1
Within two years, 4 major elections are taking place in Poland.

2018 autumn - local elections: councils, mayors, city presidents, local parliaments, counties
2019 spring- European Parliament elections
2019 autumn - national parliamentary elections
2020 spring - presidential elections

Will intelligent, reasonable, responsible, patriotic people manage to wrest Poland from the grip of currently ruling neobolshevik destructors? Will we suffice to save our beloved country from again falling into the Russian sphere of influence where PiS manic rule is leading us?

That is the question.
delphiandomine 83 | 17,596
26 Jan 2019  #2
Pawian, I did some hypothetical election calculations based on the provincial elections, and it turned out to be either a 231-229 victory for PO/PSL/SLD or a dead heat depending on how you interpreted the results of the local commitees that only stood in one province.

Nice to see you back!
OP pawian 157 | 9,053
26 Jan 2019  #3
Yes, it is quite possible that the united opposition might get an upper hand in coming elections.

Let`s have a short look at the results of local elections last year.

Local parliaments - compared to 2014, PiS control grew from 1 province to 8
.
It might seem like a victory of PiS (or United Right), but in fact it wasn`t because they expected to get much more. If we take into account how much PiS invested into their brutal campaign, I mean all their blatant lies, manipulation and primitive attacks, especially by PiS controlled state TV and radio, plus Prime Minister`s active engagement, clandestine or sometimes open support from the RC Church and other resources like abundant social benefits, then we can say that they lost, getting fewer votes than in previous national elections in 2015. This year they managed to collect 34%. An optimist might say "only" 34. :):)

So, if we look at pure numbers, then there is a draw.

Cities/ towns councils and mayors - here, the pro European opposition took 90% of big, medium and even small cities/towns. If not the opposition, independent mayors/councils rule in them. PiS won only in a few.

That is why PiS decided not to put forward their candidate in new elections in Gdańsk after the assassination of Adamowicz. They realise their chances in a big city are low.
jon357 63 | 14,110
26 Jan 2019  #4
The Adamowicz murder has come at the worst possible time for PIS (that sounds so cynical). A lot of soul-searching going on and very little of the 'national unity' that they hoped to promote before the election. That and Kaczynski's rapidly declining health.

News reports of problems in the U.K. if there's the calamity of a no-deal brexshit will certainly help the pro-Europe parties too.

Nice to see you back Pawian!
delphiandomine 83 | 17,596
26 Jan 2019  #5
That is why PiS decided not to put forward their candidate in new elections in Gdańsk after the assassination of Adamowicz.

Have you seen the latest news? Piotr Walentynowicz is standing for election there. It's effectively PiS in disguise, so their announcement was just PR and nothing more.

As you say, PiS expected to do so much better than that. They were boasting about a 'real support of 45%' before the election, and despite the huge propaganda in favour of them, they only managed to score 34%.
OP pawian 157 | 9,053
26 Jan 2019  #6
Nice to see you back!

Nice to see you back Pawian

Good to see you both, too. You are unbreakable, especially that many old posters are gone, as I saw looking through the member list.
OP pawian 157 | 9,053
26 Jan 2019  #7
Piotr Walentynowicz is standing for election there. It's effectively PiS in disguise, so their announcement was just PR and nothing more.

I don`t think it was agreed with PiS Chairman. Walentynowicz is a free lancer, but of course, if he won, PiS would be happy.
bolek_tusk 3 | 243
27 Jan 2019  #8
Poland from the grip of currently ruling neobolshevik destructors?

Isn't PO the party preferred by the Marxists running the EU?
delphiandomine 83 | 17,596
27 Jan 2019  #9
What Marxists?

I fear you've been watching way too much TVP.
bolek_tusk 3 | 243
28 Jan 2019  #10
What Marxists?

I don't need to watch TVP to know that the EU is run by an unelected cabal of people with a left wing mindset.

Lenin would be so proud.

I vote Leave to stop the UK being run by that Marxist Merkel.
jon357 63 | 14,110
28 Jan 2019  #11
I fear you've been watching way too much TVP.

Looks like it. Hopefully whatever the results of the election, the better parties will form a coalition and the present shower of crap will be out of office.
OP pawian 157 | 9,053
3 Feb 2019  #12
More remarks on the local elections 2018.
The situation is a draw as I already mentioned. PiS increased its influence in local parliaments from one province in 2014 to 8 in 2018. They gained majority in 6 provinces but managed to "persuade" urban movements members to join them. 8 out of 16 is a fantastic progress but it is still a disappointing result in view of all the benefits and social reforms PiS had been introducing for 3 years. They had expected a decisive victory, counting on 50% plus but they got 33%, 5% less than in 2015 national elections.

Even worse than that is the situation in towns and cities where PiS lost almost completely - urban dwellers refused to support the right wing conservatives for various reasons, the main one is the tensions between PiS and the EU which provoke fears of Polexit.

The general outcome means PiS`s failure to attract centre voters who, hoping for a new style of rule, had supported the party in 2015. However, EU brawls, judiciary "reforms", constitution breaches and financial scandals put these voters off - they realised that despite noble promises, PiS is doing a lot of harm to Poland.

Episode 2
When PiS leaders learnt about local elections results and realised that the support won`t grow but can only go down with time, they panicked and decided to change the style and rhetoric and repeat the same trick they successfully used in 2015 - the policy of love. So, the most controvercial PiS members who actively lashed at the opposition in the Parliament or online have been told to shut up and disappear from the media. Pro-PiS media spread rumours they have withdrawn from politics for good. The PiS Prime Minister started to call for cooperation and mutual understanding. Will it be enough to attract back the centre voters? I doubt it. Too much evil has been done by PiS to forget it so easily.

PiS is especially worried about the coming elections to the Europarliament which are traditionally attended mostly by urban dwellers. Country voters aren`t interested in Euro elections for some reason. So, it is quite possible that antiPis voters from cities will make the majority of votes, thus depriving PiS of many Europarliament positions. That wouldn`t be so bad after all, because PiS candidates are mostly people who brought shame on themselves in internal politics with their stupid decisions and now want to find a safe haven, like the Education Minister who introduced a highly controvercial junior high school system reform . BTW, that only shows what hypocrites PiS politicians are - they spit at the EU in public but all desire well-paid positions in its structures.

In 2015 national elections PiS got 38% but due to D Hondt method they managed to gain over 50% seats in the Parliament and create their own government. The situation might repeat if the opposition doesn`t unite. The talks about a broad coalition are taking place.

The coming months are going to be a really interesting time.
OP pawian 157 | 9,053
3 Feb 2019  #13
New parties arise before the Europarliament elections.

Today Robert Biedroń declared that his newly-created party is called Spring. Various polls which predicted the creation suggest it is able to gather 6 - 10 % votes.

Well, I am not going to vote him and his party because he vowed to oppose both PiS and anti PiS opposition. That is wrong because in order to oust PiS from power, all opposition bodies must unite or at least form a coalition, If Biedroń is against such cooperation, the scattered opposition votes will be lost again.

Sorry, Robert, I can understand how you dislike those right wingers from PiS and PO, but your personal objections are nothing compared to a much nobler goal.

rp.pl/Polityka/190209824-Robert-Biedron-zaklada-partie-Wiosna-Przedstawiono-postulaty.html
thenews.pl/1/2/Artykul/404674,Biedron-brings-in-his-Spring-
france24.com/en/20190203-openly-gay-polish-politican-launches-progressive-spring-party

Beginning as a left-wing gay rights activist, Robert Biedroń in 2011 became Poland's first openly gay MP. In 2014 he was elected Mayor of the mid-northern city of Słupsk. Before his term wound down, Biedroń announced that he would not be running for re-election. Rumours were that he intended to run for President in 2020. He initiated his own movement last autumn, beginning to hold meetings and organize structures, with an intention to put the formation to the test at the European elections this coming May, ahead of Poland's general election in the autumn.
Ironside 47 | 9,622
3 Feb 2019  #14
Today Robert Biedroń declared that his newly-created party is called Spring

LOL! Good luck to them, they might have a problem to find an appriopate place for their events. They need a hall with long walls as most of them would like to sit with their backs to the wall.

Spring my foot! What he has to offer beside his bedroom activities? Gay- activist it means he is a dude know for being a gay. Not a politician that happened to be a gay. Phew!
OP pawian 157 | 9,053
4 Feb 2019  #15
What he has to offer beside his bedroom activities?

Yes, that`s another question because he offered twice as many benefits as PiS. But he didn`t explain how to finance them.
OP pawian 157 | 9,053
4 Feb 2019  #16
Gay- activist it means he is a dude know for being a gay. Not a politician that happened to be a gay.

Not exactly, He`s been the mayor of a medium-size city for 4 years. And his party`s program which is very liberal looks attractive enough to collect up to 10% votes.

irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/robert-biedron-is-latest-political-hope-of-poland-s-left-1.3781863

The openly gay politician's new party is making a targeted pitch at progressive, left-oriented Poles with an unashamedly pro-EU message, and promises to boost social spending, separate church and state, liberalise abortion laws, and introduce civil partnership for same-sex couples.
delphiandomine 83 | 17,596
5 Feb 2019  #17
Latest poll is fascinating:

29%: PiS
20%: PO
14%: Wiosna
7%: Kukiz
6%: SLD
5%: Wolność
5%: PSL

Broken down, it gives a left/right split of 45% / 41%.

Certainly right wing politics are no longer as strong as they were in 2015.
OP pawian 157 | 9,053
5 Feb 2019  #18
Fascinating because that`s what Robert Biedroń counts on saying he is going to become a Prime Minister in autumn. His party might be decisive for anti-Pis coalition to create the government.

Certainly right wing politics are no longer as strong as they were in 2015.

Power uses up its holders, that`s a common truth..
Ironside 47 | 9,622
6 Feb 2019  #19
Not exactly, He`s been the mayor of a medium-size city for 4 years.

He entered politics as a gay, a token gay or whatnot. The fact he became a mayor doesn't refute my argument I made in my previous post.

anti-Pis coalition t

Another nonsense anti-PIS? What that? Morons in action>?

ight wing politics are no longer as strong

What? PiS never was right wing. So I don't know what you talking about.
Ziemowit 12 | 3,382
6 Feb 2019  #20
Robert Biedroń counts on saying he is going to become a Prime Minister in autumn

Either Robert Biedroń follows the fate of Janusz Palikot or he manages to create a new political quality as he intends to. The problem, however, is that his principal asset as of now is only his great enthusiasm for his new party. There is always this shortage of details how things should be done to achieve the goals and with what money. The immaturity of the project is even visible in this ridiculous name for a political party such as 'Wiosna'.

Biedroń originates from the party of Janusz Palikot which party he shrewdly managed to abandon in the right time when he felt the star of Palikot was on the wane before the slow-down actually happened. Then he successfully started in the election for the mayor of Słupsk which he won to much amazement (and outrage) of the so-called true Polish patriots who would have never thought that a gay man could do that in Poland. Also, he had the courage not to start in the following election for the post which he would have undobtedly won, while having already this new project of his in mind. So, he seems to be a skillful politician who is able to feel the pulse and trends in Polish politics (or 'politiks' as Iron typically writes). In my view, he could possibly win a lot of votes from the Left, but also in the centre, votes cast by those who become incresingly tired of PiS and its primitive propaganda, and also by those who continue to be dissatisfied with PO.
jon357 63 | 14,110
6 Feb 2019  #21
Fascinating because that`s what Robert Biedroń counts on saying he is going to become a Prime Minister in autumn.

He's certainly very popular. Whether he'll become PM is impossible to predict, however he does have an urban support base and some interesting points in his political programme.

Wiośna is ahead of the lamentable Kukiz in the polls, and as a new coalition, could mathematically cause a lot of problems for PiS.
mafketis 19 | 7,009
6 Feb 2019  #22
he shrewdly managed to abandon in the right time when he felt the star of Palikot was on the wane

Was talking with a friend about RB and he came up with exactly same word as I was thinking... śliski. He talks a good game but I don't trust him (and bits of his speech seemed a little.... shrill? It was like he was auditioning for the part of an up and coming young dictator.

I'm not crazy about politicians who make lots of big promises with no details about how they intend to carry them out (which is all of them but some are definitely worse about that than others).

Pass.
OP pawian 157 | 9,053
6 Feb 2019  #23
What? PiS never was right wing. So I don't know what you talking about.

Economically they are left, but ideologically - right.

in this ridiculous name for a political party such as 'Wiosna'.

I have no problem with it. Spring is associated with flowers, one of them is a pansy. So, why not?

he could possibly win a lot of votes from the centre,

Yes, the latest poll proves that. His party scored 14% at the cost of PO which went down to 20%.

politicians who make lots of big promises

Unfortunately, he is following others who had tried it before and won. Black masses will buy everything, the popular saying goes. And it is true.

Piotr Walentynowicz is standing for election there. It's effectively PiS in disguise, so their announcement was just PR and nothing more

No more. He was unable to collect 3000 signatures and had to give up. But he offered support for another guy whom PiS might accept..

PiS are currently disinterested in Gdańsk elections due to much worse thing - the tape scandal with Jarosław Kaczyński as the main protagonist.

tvn24.pl/tvn24-news-in-english,157,m/gazeta-wyborcza-published-second-recordings-with-kaczynski-in-them,905585.html
OP pawian 157 | 9,053
7 Feb 2019  #24
The talks about a broad coalition

Nothing has been settled yet but polls are promising: 42% for united proEuropeans, 38% for PiS.
Rich Mazur 4 | 2,832
8 Feb 2019  #25
PiS is against gay "marriage", abortions, and refugees. That's all a truly patriotic Polish voter needs to know. The rest is noise.
OP pawian 157 | 9,053
8 Feb 2019  #26
Yes, we know, Russia would love to have PiS "patriots" in power as long as possible, counting on more tensions with the EU and potential Polexit in the future. Thank you very much, PiS will lose, so will the Kremlin .
delphiandomine 83 | 17,596
9 Feb 2019  #27
Well, the good old days were very good for some people.
Ironside 47 | 9,622
9 Feb 2019  #28
Economically they are left, but ideologically - right.

nah, not at all. Their main opponents are just spineless creatures liking foreign boots and that gives the wrong impression about them.

Black masses will buy everything, t

Talking about yourself? or you consider yourself their better lol!

PiS will lose, so will the Kremlin .

Another moronic slogan. Yo, stop your campaign for PO scum!
OP pawian 157 | 9,053
9 Feb 2019  #29
How about reversing it into: Stop your campaign for PiS scum/(scam too) ?
Ironside 47 | 9,622
9 Feb 2019  #30
except that I don't. Your line is just awfully partisan - like vote for PO to stop PiS. Really to have those yokels and thieves lord over 'black masses' all over again? One need to be stupid like F to fall for it.

They have no proposition nor solution to any of the problems facing Poland. Only totally clues and A stupid peasant TO THE BOOT would fall for their BS.

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