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Residential real estate values go down in Poland


wielki pan 2 | 250
27 Dec 2011 #181
It would be interesting to compare the selling prices of 'new' properties vs older properties, actually

Yes, I would love to know what the profit margins are in new homes? Mr D like in every country I predict property prices to fall in 2012, Poland is a bit of a wild card in the sense that wages are too low to access real property, sure if a 32sq metre flat satisfies your need, that's about it, The problem with stats and figures is that because a property sells for a lot of money, people jump on the bandwagon and say all properties are worth the same amount, a lot of properties are purchased by foreigners who can afford to pay a inflated price. Another problem facing housing prices is the predicted unemployment levels in Poland and people returning to Poland from UK/Ireland due to lack of work. I can only conclude by saying that housing is out of reach by most Poles, but still attractive for foreign buyers...further once the Chinese get access to the Polish market they will buy up all the prime locations...(this they are doing now in other countries)
milky 13 | 1,657
27 Dec 2011 #182
Ireland and Britain atm are far better investments than Poland. Poles returning home,is something that has yet to materialise even after so much talk of it. The Chinese are everywhere so........
wielki pan 2 | 250
27 Dec 2011 #183
Ireland and Britain atm are far better investments than Poland

Milky are you involved in the Real Estate business or just a investor?
delphiandomine 88 | 18,475
28 Dec 2011 #184
Poland is a bit of a wild card in the sense that wages are too low to access real property, sure if a 32sq metre flat satisfies your need, that's about it

The thing to bear in mind is that while (in the city) - people will only be able to afford a 32m2 flat on low wages - the same low wages will buy you much more outside of the big cities. I've had a look just now, and if you go 30km outside Poznan, you can buy more or less double the size for half the price. And for low-level workers, the wages are pretty much the same.

further once the Chinese get access to the Polish market they will buy up all the prime locations...(this they are doing now in other countries)

Already bought by the Germans, Irish and Brits. Not much left here for the Chinese to buy.

I can only conclude by saying that housing is out of reach by most Poles

Many of my peers own their own places in their 20's. It's certainly not out of their reach.

It's certainly out of reach of those on minimum wage, but since when has owning a house been a right?
Wedle 16 | 496
28 Dec 2011 #185
Just caught the tail end of the news(panorama) on Polish TV, they are predicting a 30% drop in real-estate prices.

You will need to supply a youtube clip for that one Milky. I believe real estate prices will slow down in 2012, maybe 2013 we could see a bigger slow down, during Euro 2012 a lot of second home owners in the main Polish cities will be able to rent their places short term and generate enough money to cover a whole year of mortgage. There are just not enough hotels in Poland. Regular flats in good locations will be rented for 50-70 per person during Euro 2012. Apartments in good locations will be competing with 4/5 * hotel prices.Football fans who are prepared to pay 1,000 Euro for a ticket don't give a sh1t about paying 100Euro per night +. This revenue will support the real estate market, if there was no Euro 2012 more of these people would be loosing there buy to lets.
Avalon 4 | 1,068
29 Dec 2011 #186
preperty

Founder at Learnfast languages

Should this read "of"?

Consulting/Management at Other experience

Should this be "and"?

Its funny that Mr.Biernat (College and University?, is that one day at each?) and yourself, both seem to be dyslexic and suffer from poor English. Having read some of the rubbish on the "Claritaslux" sites, its not difficult to see a similarity in style.

I have reported you and Harry a hundred times and still you get away with it......

You report and abuse anybody who disagrees with your fantasy predictions. If you want to be believed, at least have some knowledge of the subject. Its no use using out of date comments from newspapers or youtube. You need to be invovled at ground level and use your eyes. If it was that easy to predict the market, you would have been a millionaire, years ago.

I happen to agree with Delph and Harry that buying a property to live in makes sense, if people buy as an investment, they run the risk as any gambler does, the first rule of gambling is never to lose more than you can afford.

In a few days we will be into another year and your predictions will be another year older. Lets get to the end of 2012 and see what happens. I have a feeling (not a prediction) that there will be much volatility in prices and availibility of credit to buy property, small loans with high interest rates will be the norm while large loans will be extremely difficult to get.

Have not heard much from AndyB in Krakow recently, is he still around?
Harry
29 Dec 2011 #187
No need for a time machine. If you would just confirm which day you are talking about (27th? 26th?) and the time during the broadcast when this item was (I assume that it was towards the end), we can watch for ourselves and check:

tvp.info/panorama/wideo/27122011-1800/5807541

Do feel very free to complain about this post again. I wonder why you would want the link to the program which you claim predicts a 30% fall to be removed from here. Could it be because the program says no such thing and you are very simply lying when you claimed that it did?
delphiandomine 88 | 18,475
29 Dec 2011 #188
Its funny that Mr.Biernat (College and University?, is that one day at each?) and yourself, both seem to be dyslexic and suffer from poor English. Having read some of the rubbish on the "Claritaslux" sites, its not difficult to see a similarity in style.

It's almost certainly the same person - both Mark and Milky rant about Lublin, both Mark and Milky have posted the same thing on here and on other sites - I really can't comprehend why he keeps this up, but it seems to be the actions of a madman who is desperate for property prices to reduce.

The other telltale sign is that he seems to think that 50m2 apartments are "small", which is a dead giveaway that he's not a European. Someone from Ireland certainly wouldn't come out with this stuff - they were living for years in tiny houses.

I have a feeling (not a prediction) that there will be much volatility in prices and availibility of credit to buy property, small loans with high interest rates will be the norm while large loans will be extremely difficult to get.

We're definitely going to see it becoming tougher to get credit with the new rules demanding that all loans are calculated on the basis of 25 years. It's a very sensible rule, and will stop people lending up to their eyeballs.

My own feeling is that we might see prices actually increase in the small towns within 30-45 minutes train ride from the big cities. Property is still ridiculously cheap in those places, and young people especially will want to get a property somehow, even if it's not in such a desirable location.
PeterWeg03
29 Dec 2011 #189
My own feeling is that we might see prices actually increase in the small towns within 30-45 minutes train ride from the big cities. Property is still ridiculously cheap in those places, and young people especially will want to get a property somehow, even if it's not in such a desirable location.

Well, from Krakow that would be 30km for a 45min train/car ride. Impressive eh?. The effect of the motorway building on property buying will be dramatic, I think.

It depends on your definition of desirable, some people like country living with a 20 minute commute.
Wedle 16 | 496
29 Dec 2011 #190
[quote=delphiandomine]My own feeling is that we might see prices actually increase in the small towns within 30-45 minutes train ride from the big cities. Property is still ridiculously cheap in those places, and young people especially will want to get a property somehow, even if it's not in such a desirable location.[/quote

When we take into consideration Polish real estate trends, I can only speak from the my own experience in Warsaw. When I first came to Poland in the early 90's I talked to people who decided to sell their 30-50 m2 flats in 1st and 2nd tier areas of Warsaw in order to move out to areas like Konstanscin, Podkowa, Lomianki, Anin and Piasecno. It was great for families with young kids up to 4/5 years old. As soon as the kids hit school age the parents realised that the locals schools were not up to the mark and the only schools for their children were in Warsaw proper, many decided to sell their houses just as the market went into meltdown in 1997. So they were stuck with a 1-2 hour drive in to Warsaw each morning from the suburbs. Those that had a little money bought 2-3 room flats in Warsaw again, lived in them monday to friday and back home for the long weekend. Things have not changed here the best schools are still in or around the centrum, with the exception of a few International schools that are for the higher echelons of society. The same trend is the world over, people will always gravitate to the areas with the best schools. As much as I dream about a better rail and road service in Warsaw and Poland, we are still a way off the infrastructure of schools, hospitals. rail and roads being built. If you are in your 20's or early 30's and are buying for the long term- why not !

If not it is all about location, location, location.

Getting back to your quote, when prices are going down in the centrum areas of a city in Poland, they are going down twice as quick in the burbs.

Unless you live in ' Pips ' osiedle of course.

have agreed over the past 3 years that there would be a fall/correction in prices due to the credit scenario

Exactly house prices are NOT in fact determined by the balance of supply and demand, but by how much money lenders are willing to lend.

If there is eventual increases in interest rates further down the line, and no return to the days of easy lending, mean that house prices will fall for several years to come.In theory house prices have to keep falling until they get back to long-term norms of about three or four times earnings. we shall wait and see...
wielki pan 2 | 250
30 Dec 2011 #191
Exactly house prices are NOT in fact determined by the balance of supply and demand, but by how much money lenders are willing to lend

You may be right but 99.99% of real estate advisers would disagree...
bullfrog 6 | 603
30 Dec 2011 #192
I happen to agree with Delph and Harry that buying a property to live in makes sense, if people buy as an investment, they run the risk as any gambler does, the first rule of gambling is never to lose more than you can afford.

Pure common sense!
milky 13 | 1,657
30 Dec 2011 #193
this is not common sense, if you spend 10 times your salary on a property, and it devalues, well, if your salary also deflates as is happening in Eire you are in the sh1tbox. Common sense is never to over borrow.Generally speaking, most prospective homeowners can afford to mortgage a property that costs between 2 and 2.5 times their gross income. If you you earn the average industrial wage in Poland ,7000euro, a proper house is at least 15 times this.

eraireland.ie/en.cfm/loc/buy/action/view/id/21880.html

lot bigger than a 50 M flat in a communist block,,and poor people live in council houses.

I know .have the cash hahah
Harry
30 Dec 2011 #194
if you spend 10 times your salary on a property, and it devalues, well, if your salary also deflates as is happening in Eire you are in the sh1tbox.

Any bank which lends a person ten times their salary deserves the problems which it will get. Any person who borrows ten times their salary also deserves the problems which they will get.

If you you earn the average industrial wage in Poland ,7000euro

EUR 7,000 = PLN 30,940 (source) conti.waw.pl/cennik.html
Current average monthly wage in Poland = PLN 3,416 zus.pl/default.asp?p=1&id=24
PLN 3,416 per month = PLN 40,992
milky = liar

Can you tone down the personal attacks, its boring.

Although not as boring as the ceaseless stream of lies which come from a certain poster (two of which I have pointed out on this very page).
milky 13 | 1,657
30 Dec 2011 #195
here you are Harry
independent.ie/opinion/analysis/poland-celebrates-good-for-lodz-bad-for-ireland-1596376.html
even if its 2000 euro more, a family house/apartment will be well over 10 times a Polish wage.
Show me a family home for under 10 times the average industrial wage,,,??
Harry
30 Dec 2011 #196
^Who to believe: an Irish journalist who's probably never even been to Poland and was writing in 2009; or ZUS, writing last month?

BTW am still waiting for you to tell us when in that program they made the prediction you claim they made....
Foreigner4 12 | 1,769
6 Jan 2012 #197
^to be fair, attacking the source is not the same as refuting the information presented.
there is scant information on what he's claiming the article illustrates- don't bother.
delphiandomine 88 | 18,475
6 Jan 2012 #198
BTW am still waiting for you to tell us when in that program they made the prediction you claim they made....

You'd think that it would be easy for him, seeing as he watched it at the time.

Could it be that our old friend Mark is just telling yet more lies?
f stop 25 | 2,513
8 Jan 2012 #199
this is so amusing.

Could it be that our old friend Mark is just telling yet more lies?

especially since the real estate prices are continually going down.
pip 10 | 1,661
8 Jan 2012 #200
yes- prices are going down--NOBODY is arguing that- why is this still a topic? What the argument is- there is NO property bubble. A decrease and leveling of prices does not mean there is a bubble.

once again
the market is saturated
the prices are leveling out to a fair market value.

just yesterday we were driving through Piaseczno and Janki outside of Warsaw, there are two housing developments that have dropped their prices from 1.2 million pln to 700,000 for a house about 150 m2.

The site in Piaseczno has flooding issues and the one in Janki is in a bad location.
Where I live there are still a good number of housing osiedle's being built- houses are selling- just not at inflated prices.
f stop 25 | 2,513
9 Jan 2012 #201
the market is saturated
the prices are leveling out to a fair market value.

I see... So, it is the word "bubble" that makes you see red.
pip 10 | 1,661
9 Jan 2012 #202
no- it is simply not an accurate description. A property bubble is a term that is used- but in Poland it is not an accurate description. I am kind of sticky about details and this is an important detail.
milky 13 | 1,657
9 Jan 2012 #203
I see... So, it is the word "bubble" that makes you see red.

She has a bubble problem.
pip 10 | 1,661
9 Jan 2012 #204
I have an accuracy problem.
If you are watching a football game and a player hits the post- it does not count as a goal.
If you go to the dr. and say that your nose is broken- he does not wire your jaw.

words and terms are used to describe the way we live. A "property bubble" is a defined term in real estate. It happens in commercial and residential. By saying Poland is having a property bubble is not accurate and nobody in real estate would use this term at the moment.

If you want to say that Poland is experiencing a drop in prices- then I would agree with that and have about 10 pages ago- but to say that it is a bubble is not accurate.

you don't call an earthquake a tornado.
Wroclaw Boy
9 Jan 2012 #205
you don't call an earthquake a tornado.

But many may become confused between a hurricane and a gale, Poland is not far off a property bubble, its actually further away now than it was in first quarter 2009.

Youre biased pip.
f stop 25 | 2,513
9 Jan 2012 #206
A "property bubble" is a defined term in real estate. It happens in commercial and residential. By saying Poland is having a property bubble is not accurate and nobody in real estate would use this term at the moment.

I think you should study up a bit more.
Wedle 16 | 496
9 Jan 2012 #207
Undervalued Real estate markets:

ryankett.hubpages.com/hub/3-Seriously-Undervalued-Property-Real-Estate-Markets
Midas 1 | 571
9 Jan 2012 #208
1. Germany is undervalued now. Although one has to be really careful, investing in the former DDR --> most local German people are running away from there and if you buy property there you might be stuck with it until the end of days.

Berlin on the other hand is VERY good for deals right now, IMO.

2. Regarding Poland the banks are looking to tighten their lending guidelines and that doesn't mean anything good for the Polish property market, unfortunately. Most Polish people buy the flats we invest in based on a bank loan, something they're more and more unlikely to get in the future.
Wedle 16 | 496
9 Jan 2012 #209
especially since the real estate prices are continually going down

"In the next 12 months the average price of an apartment will fall 4 percent," Bartosz Turek, an analyst at property agency Home Broker told the daily Puls Biznesu.

thenews.pl/1/12/Artykul/81760,Property-prices-seen-falling-5-10-percent-in-2011
pip 10 | 1,661
9 Jan 2012 #210
I think you should study up a bit more.

I don't need to I know exactly what it is.

I am not biased at all. In fact I would love to see prices achieve fair market value so that more people are able to buy their own home and finally say goodbye to those hideous communist style blocks.

Even though my husband does work in commercial real estate- it is a completely different thing.--different rules and different objectives and different standards.


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