The BEST Guide to POLAND
Unanswered  |  Archives 
 
 
User: Guest

Home / Real Estate  % width posts: 455

Residential real estate values go down in Poland


f stop 25 | 2,513
9 Jan 2012 #211
Even though my husband does work in commercial real estate

That explains some things. It's in the best interests of the realtors to insist that nothing's wrong.
Salary to cost ratio out of whack? - no problem! Get that 50 year mortgage!
Harry
9 Jan 2012 #212
That explains some things. It's in the best interests of the realtors to insist that nothing's wrong.

Which word of the phrase "commercial real estate" are you failing to understand?
f stop 25 | 2,513
9 Jan 2012 #213
why would you assume I'm failing to understand it? Maybe you're missing the point?
Harry
9 Jan 2012 #214
You say:

It's in the best interests of the realtors to insist that nothing's wrong.

Pip's husband is not a realtor in the sense of selling residential property.

Salary to cost ratio out of whack? - no problem! Get that 50 year mortgage!

So companies have salaries and take out 50 year mortgages, do they?
f stop 25 | 2,513
9 Jan 2012 #215
WTF are you talking about?
This is a prime example of arguing for argument's sake. Now you want to argue about the differences between commercial and residential real estate?

Really?
Is that going to change the fact that the real estate prices in Poland are out of whack with the salaries?
Since ALL realtors loathe the "bubble" word, you can call it anything you want, and keep attacking anyone that uses it to your hearts content. Nobody sane thinks that prices are going to go up now.
Harry
9 Jan 2012 #216
WTF are you talking about?

You making comments about Pip's view being explained by the fact that her husband is in commercial real estate.

Nobody sane thinks that prices are going to go up now.

And that is your definition of "bubble" is it? Prices not going up = bubble? Nice.
f stop 25 | 2,513
9 Jan 2012 #217
you keep grasping at fringes, parsing sentences to find holes and baffle with bullsht - do yourself a favor and look at the big picture.
pip 10 | 1,659
9 Jan 2012 #218
commercial and residential in Poland are two completely different things. Rents haven't gone down since drastically in this market either.
Harry
9 Jan 2012 #219
ou keep grasping at fringes, parsing sentences to find holes and baffle with bullsht - do yourself a favor and look at the big picture.

The big picture being that there is not now a bubble in the Polish residential property market and never has been.
f stop 25 | 2,513
9 Jan 2012 #220
maybe if you thought about what your definition of the "bubble" is, it might diffuse some of this animosity.
It is not such a "black and white" definition, like pip thinks.
For some, more sellers than buyers is a bubble already.
What is yours?
gumishu 11 | 5,696
9 Jan 2012 #221
commercial and residential in Poland are two completely different things. Rents haven't gone down since drastically in this market either.

rents won't go down drastically for some time until there is serious cooling of the economy with because of first price hikes (with much lower salary rises to acompany them) and second a bit delayed job losses that will follow the price hikes - and the price hikes are pretty inevitable (with the perspective of the zloty losing more of it's value but not only that) - rents will not go down drastically in 2 or 3 years because there just aren't millions of empty flats awainting to be occupied (though there is a considerable problem for developers to sell flats already)
Harry
9 Jan 2012 #222
maybe if you thought about what your definition of the "bubble" is,

It is not my definition.

It is not such a "black and white" definition, like pip thinks.

Yes there is.

For some, more sellers than buyers is a bubble already.

Those people clearly do not know what the word 'bubble' means.
f stop 25 | 2,513
9 Jan 2012 #223
Yes there is.

No, it is not. You don't want to commit to yours, do you.

Those people clearly do not know what the word 'bubble' means.

Maybe you just want to keep arguing about it.
cms 9 | 1,255
9 Jan 2012 #224
In commercial property and rents are most decidedly going down in warehouse, industrial and in retail. Not sure about office. Sales prices are also very depressed.

For residential well we keep being told there is a specific definition for "bubble" but if you google "property bubble definition" you get wikipedia and investopedia. If you know of an official definition then maybe supply it ?

I will give one of my own - a developer builds a modest 150 sqm house in a boggy field 15km from the middle of Warsaw with a commute that you would be lucky to do in an hour. He initially decides he wants 350.000 euro for this in a town where the average wage is 12.000 euro per year, i.e. a 25x multiple. After thinking it through he decides he was joking and actually it is now worth 40% less than his original offer. That story is being repeated in hundreds of developments accross Poland at the moment.
patrick 6 | 113
9 Jan 2012 #225
My own personal definition of 'bubble' is my story. Raced to get something in 2007, because I thought we'd be priced out. Spent more than I wanted. Then everything cools off and my property is worth less than when I bought it. Now we want to leave Poland, but can't sell the damn thing without losing our *ss. Yes, I know you're thinking that I deserve it for being so stupid, but there was a lot of emotion in decisions being made, and not only by us.
Harry
9 Jan 2012 #226
In commercial property and rents are most decidedly going down in warehouse, industrial and in retail. Not sure about office. Sales prices are also very depressed.

From a report about office space which I read recently:

2009 to 2010 saw tenant-favourable conditions with market features such as a growing sublease market as well as downward pressures on rents. In 2011, however, the situation on the market stabilised and currently some cities are gradually becoming more balanced. This is mostly pronounced in Warsaw and Wrocław, which have already entered on the growth path in terms of rents for office space. Looking forward to the fourth quarter, Kraków should join these two cities as well.
...
Construction activity is booming all across Poland. Currently more than 904,000 m2 is at the construction stage. This is one of the highest levels of construction seen in Poland this century.

Foreigner4 12 | 1,768
9 Jan 2012 #227
Having no dog in this fight, I would be wary of a source whose financial health or that of their spouse depends on there not being a "bubble" of any kind; based on source alone it serves their interest to deny that a bubble exists and encourage as many people as possible to do the same. Nothing against, pip (sometimes I agree with her and sometimes I don't) but it's like accepting the validity of a news story from a controlled source- sure it might be accurate but it'd be silly to put your trust in that source.

That being said, this is all just a big argument over semantics. Is the real estate market going to come crashing down in Poland? I don't know about that but the patient is in dire need of medical attention.
Wroclaw Boy
9 Jan 2012 #228
The big picture being that there is not now a bubble in the Polish residential property market and never has been.

200% + capital appreciation within two years on specific inner city developments, thats a bubble.

Whats happening right now could be referred to as a market correction, but there has been a bubble.
Harry
9 Jan 2012 #229
200% + capital appreciation within two years on specific inner city developments, thats a bubble.

Those developments would very much be the exception and not the rule.
pip 10 | 1,659
9 Jan 2012 #230
about 5 pages ago I posted a really good link by a few experts that discussed the situation with regards to residential real estate in Poland.

with regards to the above scenerio about an osiedle 15 km outside of warsaw and then the developer dropping the prices by 40%.

This is the situation now. There is osiedle "Le Village" in Piaseczno- the prices when during construction were close to 1 million and yesterday I saw the billboard advertising 699,999 for a a segment.

In Janki there is osiedle sosnowy doliny- exactly the same price 699,999 and they started at 1.2 million for a segment.

The drop is large yes, but now the price is reaching a fair market value. Developers have inflated their prices so much that they can afford this 40% drop and they will still make money.

A "bubble'" is a defined term. This why I am arguing- there is a definitive definition in all real estate "bibles" that explains what a bubble is. not a wiki pedia entry or whatever.

it is easily googled and defined on any good real estate website.

so once again- based on the actual definition of what a real estate bubble is---there is no bubble in Poland- yet. and the thing is typically you can't define a bubble until after it has happed

so what we are experiencing in Poland is a dropping of prices and a leveling out to reach fair market value. If in the next two years the prices drop by another 30 to 40% then we have a bubble- but again- we can't define it until after it has happened.
cms 9 | 1,255
9 Jan 2012 #231
So what is that definition ? We are lambs in the wilderness in our ignorance. Please help us with the bible.

You can spot a bubble beforenit happens. We have one now and it's going to pop
pip 10 | 1,659
9 Jan 2012 #232
So what is that definition ? We are lambs in the wilderness in our ignorance. Please help us with the bible.

don't be obtuse. In order to be an agent- commercial or residential it is necessary to be licensed. nothing new. and in order for this to happen you need to take courses and pass these courses- which all are about real estate- both residential and commercial. the books for the courses are considered "bibles" in real estate because the discuss every picky detail- of which one is the bubble.

You can spot a bubble beforenit happens. We have one now and it's going to pop

you don't know this until it happens.
gumishu 11 | 5,696
9 Jan 2012 #233
Wroclaw Boy:
200% + capital appreciation within two years on specific inner city developments, thats a bubble.

Those developments would very much be the exception and not the rule.

no harry - your typical block-of-flats appartment gained more than 150 per cent from say 2003
Wedle 16 | 496
9 Jan 2012 #234
you don't know this until it happens.

In theory, Pip is correct.

How can you call a bubble until it has popped, you may believe that Poland is going through a ' Economic bubble' this is not a property bubble as truly defined, you can say ' The USA went through a property bubble because it has popped. I would like to know, how much has the money supply increased by, in Poland since 2003 and are we in an illusionary period of wealth in Poland?

Any idea?
Harry
9 Jan 2012 #235
no harry - your typical block-of-flats appartment gained more than 150 per cent from say 2003

They certainly didn't go up by 200% in two years.

And you also have to remember that while we have seen massive growth (places tripling in value in a ten year period) in the major cities, in the minor citites prices are far far lower. For example, in Slupsk you can get a 40m apartment in the city centre in fairly decent condition for as little as 100,000zl, and those places cost a lot more than 30,000zl in 2001.
gumishu 11 | 5,696
9 Jan 2012 #236
in the minor citites prices are far far lower.

yes it is true that flats cost much less outside big cities - but they gained value on the same scale - my mum bought a studio flat in a very small place in Opole region in the year 2000 for 120 000 PLN and we sold in in 2008 for 330 000 PLN
Harry
9 Jan 2012 #237
yes it is true that flats cost much less outside big cities - but they gained value on the same scale

Well, that same flat in Slupsk was apparently 50,000zl in 2001 and has had at least 10,000zl spent on it since then, so it hasn't even doubled in value.

my mum bought a studio flat in a very small place in Opole region in the year 2000 for 120 000 PLN and we sold in in 2008 for 330 000 PLN

So you got in the region of 10,000zl per sq m? That's pretty much Warsaw prices!
gumishu 11 | 5,696
9 Jan 2012 #238
gumishu:
my mum bought a studio flat in a very small place in Opole region in the year 2000 for 120 000 PLN and we sold in in 2008 for 330 000 PLN

So you got in the region of 10,000zl per sq m? That's pretty much Warsaw prices!

oh, sorry - one magnitude too much (I mean cut one zero in both prices) :) - my mistake - you know I sometimes still count in old millions when 33k PLN was 330 millions in old money
f stop 25 | 2,513
9 Jan 2012 #239
A "bubble'" is a defined term. This why I am arguing- there is a definitive definition in all real estate "bibles" that explains what a bubble is.

so why can't you, or Harry, tell us what it is?
Harry
9 Jan 2012 #240
oh, sorry - one magnitude too much (I mean cut one zero in both prices) :) - my mistake

So it was possible to buy an apartment for as little as 33,000zl at the peak of the market? So much for the great bubble!


Home / Real Estate / Residential real estate values go down in Poland
BoldItalic [quote]
 
To post as Guest, enter a temporary username or login and post as a member.