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Residential real estate values go down in Poland


teflcat 5 | 1,032
21 Jan 2012 #421
easily exploited by gombeen men

Take note Harry and Delph. No American, not even an Irish-American under sixty years of age, would use this expression. Let's put the lid on this Mark B. crap once an for all.
Avalon 4 | 1,068
21 Jan 2012 #422
I have no idea where his 45 k figure comes from but maths obviously not a strong suit, nor economics by the look of it.

I must apologise for getting the calculation wrong, I was in a hurry and talking to someone at the same time.
Even so, you are not very clever yourself, you assume that the 3000 PLN per month is saved, what about living costs, rent, food etc. We did cite this as a single, average wage.
Harry
21 Jan 2012 #423
Average wage is 3000, multiply by 12 and it's 36k. Use an earnings multiple of 3x and it is 108 k. Add a 20 percent deposit and you get to about 130 k.

And that should be about the range that family accomodation starts in smaller towns.

Which it does, I know that for a fact with connection to Slupsk.

However you overlook the fact that it is unusual for a Polish family to have only one wage earner. So to take your calculation, the earnings would be 72,000 per year and the multiple 216,000, with a 20% deposit that is about 260,000. Reckon that is enough to buy family accommodation in the average Polish city?

As to kids, I'd like to have a yacht and a Citroen DS; however I can not afford them (unless I sold my flat and rented). Children are no different: if people can't wait until they are in a financial position to have kids, they have no right to whine about not being able to buy a flat.
delphiandomine 88 | 18,455
22 Jan 2012 #424
However you overlook the fact that it is unusual for a Polish family to have only one wage earner. So to take your calculation, the earnings would be 72,000 per year and the multiple 216,000, with a 20% deposit that is about 260,000. Reckon that is enough to buy family accommodation in the average Polish city?

More than enough. Most Polish people don't live in big cities, and right now, 260k will buy you a lot.

260k is certainly more than enough for a 3 bedroomed flat of 80-90sqm in a commuter town for Poznan. A 45 minute commute is hardly the end of the world, and work isn't concentrated in the centre of Poznan too. For example - let's take a couple who work for Allegro. It's located near the airport, and with the opening of the dual carriageway past Lawica, living in a small town about 20km away isn't a big deal. With 6000k a month in their pocket, it's perfectly possible for a young couple to do well in such areas.

Children are no different: if people can't wait until they are in a financial position to have kids, they have no right to whine about not being able to buy a flat.

This is one of the real problems - very often, women are studying something useless for 5 years, getting a worthless bit of paper - and then getting that first job. They get the "umowa o prace" - and suddenly fall pregnant. Their career is finished, because no employer will trust them again - and they stagnate, if they even go back to work.

Quote and personal remark removed
cms 9 | 1,255
22 Jan 2012 #425
As I pointed out before, rather the opposite is true. It is unusual for a polish household to have 2 full Time wage earners. Given that they make up only 23 percent of the population.

And to answer avalon I have showed the typical budget including all costs for a family and the resulting amount they could afford for a mortgage

Banks always look at the major wage earners salary and security of employment. Starting to base that on 2 wage earners is suicidal as the chance of both being stable over the period of a 20 year loan are very low.

I still think the current prices are way overdone. People do not want to live in small towns yet and the commutes door to door are actually far longer than the 45 minutes you talk about.

As for having kids well someone has too, otherwise there is nothing quite look a population decline to reduce house prices long term ! Look at east Germany which people here some are fond of referencing.
milky 13 | 1,657
22 Jan 2012 #426
Starting to base that on 2 wage earners is suicidal as the chance of both being stable over the period of a 20 year loan are very low.

yes, I have already stated this to the lads, but they seem to ignore.

As for having kids well someone has too, otherwise there is nothing quite look a population decline to reduce house prices long term !

There is a major population decline in process. Especially in Poland B.
Avalon 4 | 1,068
22 Jan 2012 #427
However you overlook the fact that it is unusual for a Polish family to have only one wage earner. So to take your calculation, the earnings would be 72,000 per year and the multiple 216,000, with a 20% deposit that is about 260,000. Reckon that is enough to buy family accommodation in the average Polish city?

Even so Harry, If you are renting, look how long it would take to save a deposit. If you are looking at a central location in a city, the most you will get with that sum would be something old and crappy, certainly not new unless it is 23-33m2 studio flat.

I understand that people would have to buy what they could afford but there are some real problems out there at the moment, mainly with lending and social housing. Goverment interference is gooing to be needed in the near future.
cms 9 | 1,255
23 Jan 2012 #428
I understand that people would have to buy what they could afford but there are some real problems out there at the moment, mainly with lending and social housing. Goverment interference is gooing to be needed in the near future.
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Why should the government intervene ? You accuse Milky of being socialist (maybe he is) but then say the government should step in to help one sector of the economy. How is that different to bailing out the banks ?

And what can the government do ?

Allow banks to relax lending criteria or the 20% deposit requirement ? That would be extremely risky and is precisely what started the problems in US, Spain, Ireland etc

Decrease interest rates ? Unlikely when they have lots of bonds they need to sell to cover their deficits and would also damage the zloty.

Housing grants ? Because of the deficit the government needs to cut spending, not increase it and in any case there is fairly credible evidence that the rodzina na swoim cash found its way straight on to developers bottom lines.

The only intervention they should make is to reduce bureaucracy, make permits and zoning easier and reduce transaction taxes if they can afford to do so. I guess they could make a straightforward ban on foreign currency lending but the banks have more or less imposed that anyway.

I think the government probably also wants the housing bubble to deflate slowly so that Poles are able to divert more of their income into other sectors.
Avalon 4 | 1,068
23 Jan 2012 #429
The only intervention they should make is to reduce bureaucracy, make permits and zoning easier and reduce transaction taxes if they can afford to do so. I guess they could make a straightforward ban on foreign currency lending but the banks have more or less imposed that anyway.

I agree. Also get rid of VAT on new build, this would stimulate the industry and create more jobs.
cms 9 | 1,255
23 Jan 2012 #430
Why cut VAT - I would love to be able to cut prices to my customers by 23% but I'm not able to and I just accept that as part of doing business here. Why should developers get special treatment ? How many jobs would be created by that and what would be the hit on the governments finances ?
Wedle 16 | 496
23 Jan 2012 #431
I agree. Also get rid of VAT on new build, this would stimulate the industry and create more jobs.

Why should the real estate industry be singled out for special treatment, it is not like the investors behind Real estate development companies need a leg up, developers have had good times, they should have saved their profits for the bad times. like any normal business. Cut the profit margin and operate like any normal business does, in my opinion the government needs to raise the standards of developers and real estate agents to protect home buyers. The sh1t that some developers get away with in Poland is beyond criminal.
Avalon 4 | 1,068
23 Jan 2012 #432
What are you waffaling on about now?. I am not aware of any developers asking for special treatment. I think you will find that they have also lowered their costs and lowered their profit margins. Criminality occurs in all walks of life, even in governments.
Wedle 16 | 496
23 Jan 2012 #433
I am not aware of any developers asking for special treatment. I think you will find that they have also lowered their costs and lowered their profit margins

You do what you have to to survive and put the Bentley on hold.

I agree. Also get rid of VAT on new build, this would stimulate the industry and create more jobs.

As I mentioned

Why should the real estate industry be singled out for special treatment, it is not like the investors behind Real estate development companies need a leg up, developers have had good times, they should have saved their profits for the bad times. like any normal business.

There are plenty of developers in Poland running round today trying to tell anyone that will listen that they have fallen on hard times,some developers can discount house prices from 2.5 Million PLN to 1.5 Million PLN to sell, it makes one wonder just what margins they operate on. I have absolutely no sympathy for Polish developers or Real estate agents during the current economic downturn, they have got to do the same as all other business owners, " adapt to the current times".
PeterWeg03
23 Jan 2012 #434
He denegrates the very people he expects to provide him with somewhere to live. I imagine that he thinks doctors are doing him a favour when they treat him.

Got an elevated opinion of yourself don't you? Just about anyone can build themselves a place to live if they had to. Developers simply offer the service at considerable cost. You could shoot every builder in the world and they could be replaced immediately.
Avalon 4 | 1,068
23 Jan 2012 #435
Got an elevated opinion of yourself don't you?

Yes, especially when it comes to you.
poland_
20 Aug 2012 #436
Here is a interesting article by Savills of London who indicate that prices on central European farmland have shown the highest increases globally since 2002.

savills.co.uk/research_articles/141557/141604-0
Wincig 2 | 220
5 Aug 2020 #437
How have residential real estate prices in Warsaw performed over the past 2 years? Stable, slight decrease or increase?
pawian 178 | 16,078
5 Aug 2020 #438
Stable, slight decrease or increase?

You are close but if we are accurate, none of the three. Think of another option.
Wincig 2 | 220
6 Aug 2020 #439
You mean sharp decrease?? Or maybe simply prices have gone nowhere..
dolnoslask 6 | 3,074
6 Aug 2020 #440
prices have gone nowhere..

In my experience prices have gone up.
Cargo pants 3 | 1,142
6 Aug 2020 #441
You mean sharp decrease?

Never happened in the last 25 years in Poland.The prices are still going up and I think will go up till they reach the average EU level.You can still pick up a deal here and there but on an average they are up.
pawian 178 | 16,078
6 Aug 2020 #442
You mean sharp decrease?? Or maybe simply prices have gone nowhere..

About 20% since 2018. I said you were close with slight increase but 20% isn`t so slight.
Wincig 2 | 220
6 Aug 2020 #443
Indeed, +20% over 2 years is quite susbstantial. Would you say that this type of rise also applies to large houses in Warsaw (Wilanow)?
pawian 178 | 16,078
6 Aug 2020 #444
Do you have a house there and was wondering whether it is time to sell it with profit? hahaha

Even if you are not planning to sell it, it won`t lose its value, so don`t worry. It is just like Cargo said: The prices are still going up and I think will go up till they reach the average EU level

Well, prices of big houses increased slightly, as you predicted, up to 10%. Apartments were more popular among buyers.

rp.pl/Nieruchomosci/302239955-Hossa-zawitala-na-rynek-domow.html
Wincig 2 | 220
6 Aug 2020 #445
Thx. To your first question, answers are yes (part one) and no (part two) :)
pawian 178 | 16,078
6 Aug 2020 #446
and no (part two) :)

Good. So if you can, keep it as long as possible coz prices, even if they have stopped rising now due to pandemics, soon will go up again, together with Poles getting richer and richer every year.
Wincig 2 | 220
6 Aug 2020 #447
Indeed that was our bet when we built the house 11 years ago, plus the fact that Warsaw will continue to grow fast, given that it is currently undersized if you compare to other capital cities in Europe, its population being less than 10% of the population of the country. And since the house has been let ever since we built it, we are in no hurry..
cms neuf - | 1,600
7 Aug 2020 #448
What is interesting is the impression that getting richer every year is the norm and to be expected automatically.

In fact that needs hard work, sensible government, stable geopolitics and lots of investment. Be careful as each of those is in doubt
Miloslaw 11 | 3,197
7 Aug 2020 #449
@cms neuf

Well said.
Many people will be worse off by the end of this year.
pawian 178 | 16,078
7 Aug 2020 #450
Off course they will. Capitalist prosperity fluctuates: up and down, up and down.
But in Poland it has been up all this time since early 1990s.


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