Real Estate /
Is there a Real Estate bubble in Krakow? [60]
As a non-emotional builder, I can give you a some good reasons.
a) Even with 2,000.000 Poles working abroad, there is a need for some 3,000.000 new dwellings including those needed to replace exisiting defective housing stock.(Stats according to GUS 2004)
b) Building costs for new apartments is around
2,000 to 3,000 PLN m2 (average quality to developers standard, I am not talking high end developments) excluding the cost of the land.
(not the 600 PLN m2 that the idiot Mark Biernat would have you believe)
c) Average time from initial planning for large blocks or estate is 3-4 years by the time all permissions are granted.
d) Wages/materials/fuel used in constructioin have been rising for the past 4 years and are not going down.
e) Green taxes being brought in by the EU will increase the cost of everything from materials to the new certificates for "energy efficiency" that are required to be provided by the developers to the buyers (all these costs mount up substancially and have to be included as overall costs.
f) complying with Health & Safety legisilation with soon become compulsary in Poland (more jobs for the EU boys) which will again add to the cost of a project. (In the UK it added 8% to my project costs. ( an example would be having to supply toilets, showers and a canteen for the men on site, even small sites. Disposing of waste by approved contractors to landfill sites where they charge a fortune because of the EU regulations)
g) Financing a new project is going to cost more from the banks (if you can get them to lend to you) because of the ass-**le bankers.
h) As a pre-condition to joining the EU, Poland has to adopt the euro which means that wages will have to go up or is the suggestion that all the countries to the West of Poland will come here to do their shopping?. When Spain and Germany adopted the euro, prices for food etc, rose by around 15% and the people there are still complaining now.
So you see, 5-6000 PLN m2 does not seem all that expensive if you know what you are talking about and you want something
"new". Developers have to make a profit to make it worthwhile to build at all. Try and remember a single building project that has come in under budget?
The reason that Polish people are asking 4000 PLN m2 for total crap is that they know they can get it as there is not enough "affordable new" on the market.
Poles would rather have a new car than a nice apartment, thats their choice, but you will see the price of cars shoot up in the next couple of years, if you can afford the petrol/diesel to drive them.
Petrol has risen by 50% in the past 4 years, has that stopped people from driving?
Perhaps people will go back to using horse and carts?
I have spent most of my whole working life in construction so I hope this is the non-emotional response you wanted.
I welcome constructive criticism about the property market here in Poland but when I want an opinion on my health, I do not ask a bus driver.
Do not ask me how the Polish people will be able to afford housing, I have no idea, any more than I have any idea why nearly eveything here is dealt with in cash purchases.