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Will todays tragedy effect the economy of Poland?


love_sunil80 14 | 127
10 Apr 2010 #1
What do you guys think that economy of poland can effect because of todays incident? Can it also effect the exchange rates in the international market?
convex 20 | 3,978
10 Apr 2010 #2
Not really, Poland is used to having governments cycle out every couple of years.
jonni 16 | 2,485
10 Apr 2010 #3
For a few days certainly. A lot depends on whether the Warsaw financial markets open as usual on Monday or if they close for mourning which might be practical as well as appropriate. Also the loss of the head of the NBP at the same time is a factor.

Long term, probably not much except that the new President is from Platforma and is therefore far more likely to support the party's programme than exercise his veto.
OP love_sunil80 14 | 127
10 Apr 2010 #4
I feel the same about the Currency exchange rates can have big fluctuation for few days. As decision makers are no more :(
Avalon 4 | 1,068
10 Apr 2010 #5
I am touched that your thoughts are of the economy, rather than the dead and the relatives that are left to mourne. I suppose that business is business, you should fit in well if you are thinking of investing in Poland. Perhaps you can set up a chain of shops selling plastic figurines of the ex-president of maybe even scarves to sell to the football fans.
jonni 16 | 2,485
10 Apr 2010 #6
Even a small fluctuation in the exchange rate can make a big difference if you issue invoices pegged to one currency and have to pay people's wages on time in another.
Seanus 15 | 19,706
10 Apr 2010 #7
Avalon, I don't think he was thinking of business and profit though I'm not sure. I don't want to second guess him but this can have repercussions that many eyes don't see at the moment. Look at what happens when the powers-that-be don't get their way. They do it by force! I rue the day when a yes-man is appointed and the global elite are satisfied at the expense of the Polish national interest. That man wasn't supposed to die and I bet some fatcats are rubbing their hands in glee now.
OP love_sunil80 14 | 127
11 Apr 2010 #8
I wasnt thinking of making business or money. I am thinking about how the poland economy was growing having these important people in the power and now since they are not there it can affect polish economy tremendously.
Karl1983 8 | 41
11 Apr 2010 #9
Mourn does not have an e on the end.
delphiandomine 88 | 18,454
11 Apr 2010 #10
Won't make a difference, because no real decision makers were on the plane.
The Shadow 3 | 86
11 Apr 2010 #11
except for Skrzypek, of course. From our dealings with him and his staff, this guy showed himself to be a class act above some other elite hoi-paloi we had the opportunity to contact. He was not only a good example as a Polish business leader, IMO, but also a strong voice in fiscal policy. Where others may have displayed themselves to be characters on the political scene, this man had character.

online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304170204575175653844316766.html

I also note that, while the loss of human life is an undesireable end for any of us not to wish upon any one else, the loss of a stable long term economic policy will directly effect a great many more people in Poland than 100 or so families. There will be more reported on this in the days to come as Poland will face uncertainty until after the coming elections and the permanent appointment of Skrzypek's replacement. Will it be a PO sweep...?

Will that necessarily be good for Poland? Is change in debt reporting required - considering Poland did not suffer a recession under its current structure while the rest of Europe and the Americas did....?
delphiandomine 88 | 18,454
11 Apr 2010 #12
Will it be a PO sweep...?

Jaroslaw Kaczynski alone knows the answer to that question. If he runs, then he could very well snatch it with an emotional campaign against the robot Komorowski. PO's choice in candidate may very well turn against them badly.
The Shadow 3 | 86
11 Apr 2010 #13
If he runs, then he could very well snatch it with an emotional campaign against the robot Komorowski.

To be honest, I have not been real impressed with his campaigning style or arrogance. I was approached by one of his PR consultants during the last campaign (Razem Tusk FTW) and I advised against the arrogant tone. After "swallowing all knowledge" there was just enough room left to swallow defeat. To believe the level of political campaigning in this country, if you are looking in from abroad, you have to turn your clocks backward 40 years. (That would be just after Watergate and a little before President Jimmy Carter.)

If Jarosław ran on Monday, you're probably right. Too bad for him elections will wait until around Corpus Christi and his brother's body will have gone cold by then. People say things they do not mean when under stress and they may vote in the opposite direction when the climate cools. Right now it is fashionable to burn candles and say nice things.
MareGaea 29 | 2,752
11 Apr 2010 #14
Jaroslaw Kaczynski alone knows the answer to that question. If he runs, then he could very well snatch it with an emotional campaign against the robot Komorowski. PO's choice in candidate may very well turn against them badly.

Is there a chance that Jaroslaw will run for presidency?

>^..^<

M-G (would that be good?)
Bratwurst Boy 12 | 12,310
11 Apr 2010 #15
Please not!

The time as both governed was a dark time in the german-polish relationships...it's much better now and I would like to keep it that way!
delphiandomine 88 | 18,454
12 Apr 2010 #16
Is there a chance that Jaroslaw will run for presidency?

It's impossible to tell. He's about the only face left within PiS that would have a chance of winning the Presidency, and given that his political career is all but over if he doesn't - he may have absolutely no choice but to attempt a run at it or retire from politics.

A lot depends on the party itself - they may very well attempt to draw a line under the Kaczynski era and put forward a young member without the baggage of old. Certainly, right now, PiS can either renew itself or stick with the old guard. But again - who is going to deny the dead President's brother a chance to win the Presidency in honour of his late brother?

(would that be good?)

It would be a complete disaster.
RevokeNice 15 | 1,859
12 Apr 2010 #17
Its time to buy up a bit of zloty, me thinks.
convex 20 | 3,978
12 Apr 2010 #18
But again - who is going to deny the dead President's brother a chance to win the Presidency in honour of his late brother?

I don't think he wants the presidency... PM gets things done, the President just vetoes things.
OP love_sunil80 14 | 127
12 Apr 2010 #19
Zloty hasn't gone down it is still the same in comparison to Euro.
bolek 6 | 330
12 Apr 2010 #20
Its time to buy up a bit of zloty, me thinks.

if you like to loose your money, then buy up zloties now, I am of the view that the zlote will loose value slightly as buyers are not certain how current events will effect the direction of the Polish government, a guess only, the US dollar will reach 3 zlote in the short term only. If in fact the business sector see the old government as a obstacle to creating a capitalistic environment then the zlote will rise.
Crow 160 | 10,257
12 Apr 2010 #21
Will todays tragedy effect the economy of Poland?

count on new Saudi Arabian investments in Poland and increased NATO presents. Definitely
RevokeNice 15 | 1,859
12 Apr 2010 #22
If in fact the business sector see the old government as a obstacle to creating a capitalistic environment then the zlote will rise.

I am thinking long term, son.
peterweg 37 | 2,319
12 Apr 2010 #23
having these important people in the power and now since they are not there it can affect polish economy tremendously.

As sad as the deaths of so many people are, I cannot see how it would make any difference to the Polish economy. Most were military or Politicians who have little economic impact by their absence. Military staff would be most missed in war time, politicians are easily replaced. The biggest impact will be the close of business in mourning.
OP love_sunil80 14 | 127
12 Apr 2010 #24
peterweg

There is economic growth in poland and lot of foreign investments. After this incident when there is no stable government and dont know what govrnment comes in power, foreign investors will think twice to invest. So this can affect the economy.
convex 20 | 3,978
12 Apr 2010 #25
After this incident when there is no stable government

The government is still very much intact.

The PM is still here, as is his entire cabinet.

97% of the Senat is still there.

98% of the Sejm will be back at work.

Piotr Wiesiołek is taking over running NBP... Monetary decisions are made by committee, which is still in place.
delphiandomine 88 | 18,454
12 Apr 2010 #26
No stable government? The government is very much intact. Most people killed were of a ceremonial nature, and in fact, if Komorowski wins, it'll make Poland even more stable than before. You can even add in the fact that the replacements for most of the killed officials will be PO appointees - so the Prime Minister (and thus Government), the President and many of the top brass will all be PO affilated. If that's not stable, what is?
OP love_sunil80 14 | 127
12 Apr 2010 #27
If that's not stable, what is

I am not sure about it, it is just a thought. Thats why I am asking people about there opinions.
lynneg
12 Apr 2010 #28
I am travelling to Krakow from Scotland on Wednesday and wondered if the tourist attractions etc will be affected by this week of mourning?
Amathyst 19 | 2,702
12 Apr 2010 #29
Apparently no cultural events will be happening, but the pubs are open (this was from a work colleague in the Warsaw office) - you could still go for a walk to the Jewish district and a walk round the castle...there's plenty to see, its a very pretty place.
peterweg 37 | 2,319
12 Apr 2010 #30
foreign investors will think twice to invest. So this can affect the economy.

Thats utter garbage.

Bloomsberg, probably the second most important business news source after Reuters says,

"The momentum that's been generated over the past few days is just astounding," said Bartlomiej Sienkiewicz, who heads Othago, a Warsaw-based consultancy that helps firms do business in former Soviet Union countries. "It means the possibility of doing serious business with Russia and breaking the mold of 20 years of strained relations."

bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109

Economically, this is very good news for Poland, which was already in line for a major boom.


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