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Will America send troops to fight a Russian invasion of Baltics and/or Poland?



Bobko 5 | 100    
1 Aug 2017  #1

Just read an article on the nytimes website about these huge, upcoming military drills in Russia and Belarus that will involve 100,000 troops.

nytimes.com/2017/07/31/world/europe/russia-military-exercise-zapad-west.html

The drills are called Zapad-2017. These large scale drills along the Western border were more or less regular during the times of the Soviet Union, but have been conducted only 3 times since 1991. Though this is certainly not the case now, it is important to note that in 2014 Russia used the cover of another large set of military drills to move its forces across the Ukrainian border, catching Western intelligence agencies by surprise.

The Russians are engaging huge amounts of military equipment during this exercise. Here's a quote from the article:

"[...]in combination with the highly mobile tank army, that force has about 800 tanks, more than 300 artillery pieces and a dozen Iskander tactical missile launchers.That is more tanks than NATO has in active units deployed in the Baltic States, Poland and Germany put together, not including armor in storage that would be used by reinforcements sent from the United States".

And the US/NATO response has been pretty laughable:

"The United States is taking precautions, including sending 600 American paratroopers to NATO's three Baltic members for the duration of the Zapad exercise and delaying the rotation of a United States-led battle group in Poland."

The comment section to the article is full of people espousing a sentiment along the lines of: "We need to get real with the Baltics and Poland, and tell them we're not going to go over there to fight the Russians for them."

However, people may say what they want, but America is still treaty bound by Article 5 to defend its allies. America has also been the only country in history to have actually invoked Article 5 (2001 Invasion of Afghanistan), so it would be pretty hypocritical of it to leave its allies hanging high and dry when their hour of need came. But unfortunately in these Trump days nothing seems certain... So as a hypothetical, what do you folks think about the chances of American boots on the ground in case of a Russian invasion into the Baltics or Poland?

P.S. - I fully recognize that an invasion of Poland is much less likely than one in the Baltics, which in turn - also has a pretty infinitesimal chance of happening.So this question is just for fun:)


Lyzko 17 | 3,640    
1 Aug 2017  #2

If we do, we'll have President Duda's blessings, I'm sure:-)
Crow 138 | 5,830    
1 Aug 2017  #3

The real question is >>> Will Russia send troops to fight a NATO invasion of Baltics and/or Poland?
OP Bobko 5 | 100    
1 Aug 2017  #4

@Crow

But Crow... Poland and Baltics are in NATO?
Crow 138 | 5,830    
1 Aug 2017  #5

What does it matter who is in NATO. Look how things developed in Warsaw Pact.
weg04    
2 Aug 2017  #6

that force has about 800 tanks,

800 tanks is more than Russians entire modernised tank fleet (around 500). I doubt Russia has 100K combat troops to take part in this exercise, as the vast majority are stationed around Ukraine.

This is yet another bullshit Russian proclamation.
Crow 138 | 5,830    
2 Aug 2017  #7

How did Poland even founded itself in this situation. There is no win win outcome for Poland here.
delphiandomine 87 | 15,827    
2 Aug 2017  #8

So as a hypothetical, what do you folks think about the chances of American boots on the ground in case of a Russian invasion into the Baltics or Poland?

Depends what the objective is. If the plan is merely to seize the Suwałki Gap, then it's likely that the Americans will agree to a UN-supported ceasefire with free passage for all sides rather than confront Russia head on.
mafketis 16 | 4,725    
2 Aug 2017  #9

it's likely that the Americans will agree to a UN-supported ceasefire

The chances of the US doing more than protest and suggest diplomacy against anything other than a full scaled military invasion is kind of ludicrous. The US is simply not a very reliable ally (I say this with sadness).
delphiandomine 87 | 15,827    
2 Aug 2017  #10

I think the US would intervene if it posed a serious threat to those countries, but it's hard to see them intervening over a sparsely inhabited territory, especially if they don't actually invade Suwałki or Marijampolje. Creating a UN protection zone there would suit Russia perfectly, and the inability of Poland to respond would be a massive coup for Russia.
OP Bobko 5 | 100    
2 Aug 2017  #11

8I doubt Russia has 100K combat troops to take part in this exercise, as the vast majority are stationed around Ukraine.

I'm afraid that yours is the bullshit proclamation. Mind you, this quote was also from a NY Times article - they're not sloppy on the factchecking. In 1991 the Soviet Union had 63,900 tanks of all types in service and in storage. The present day figure for Russia is 2,700 in active service and 17,300 in storage (they are allowed no more than 20,000 under the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe). The 2,700 tanks in active service are all modern tanks, from T-72B, to T-72B3, T-90S, T90SM.

Regarding the 100,000 being an exaggeration I would also like to call bullshit. The Russian Armed Forces have around 1 million personnel total, with another 2.5 million in reserve. Out of the 1 million, around 450,000 belong to the Ground Forces (in America it would be called the Army), another 280,000 in the Air Force, 180,000 in the Navy and so on. Are you still sure in that Russia can't spare 100,000 men for these drills? The units involved in action in the Ukraine numbered in the hundreds, or low thousands, and it was still enough to crush the Ukrainian army and force Kiev to sign the humiliating Minsk Accords.
weg04    
2 Aug 2017  #12

The present day figure for Russia is 2,700 in active service and 17,300 in storage.

Utter bull. A collection of knackered, 50 years old tanks (T-72) is no use on the battlefield. Russian has been modernising its forces and got to just over 500. The tanks in storage are most likely lumps of metal in the open air. They can be reactivated, but Ukraine spends $500k per tank reassembling them. Assuming they were not stolen and sold as scrap after the end of the SU.

The Russian Armed Forces have around 1 million personnel total, with another 2.5 million in reserve.

Deluded Russian fantasy (you are Russian of course), Russian combat forces number 170K. Most are involved and located around Ukraine, where their bases have been relocated.
OP Bobko 5 | 100    
2 Aug 2017  #13

A collection of knackered, 50 years old tanks (T-72) is no use on the battlefield.

Such an expert. By this measure the M1 Abrams is a useless rust bucket too, and if one is to take the analogy to airplanes then the B-52 Stratofortress shouldn't be flying at all (maiden flight 1952). Military equipment has modernization potential you know. The T-72B3 I listed (currently 600 T-72B tanks have been upgraded to that standard) is actually a very modern version of the T-72, which is in many ways superior to the newer (at least by nomenclature) T-90. Here's a link:

nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/the-t-72b3-the-lethal-russian-tank-ukraine-fears-most-16500

Deluded Russian fantasy (you are Russian of course), Russian combat forces number 170K.

I don't know where you are pulling this info out of. Cite me a single source that lists Russian combat forces at under even 200,000 and I will admit that I am a Russian troll.
Crow 138 | 5,830    
2 Aug 2017  #14

I once believed that we Serbians can save Poland. Now, with this display of cretenistic policy of current (and former) Poland`s governmant, I don`t know. So I pray to God
weg04    
2 Aug 2017  #15

Cite me a single source that lists Russian combat

The problem is, most sources simple cite Russia sources (which lie) and use ex-SU figures (meaningless).
OP Bobko 5 | 100    
2 Aug 2017  #16

Ok. That's as good a way to slide out of a debate as any.
Peeweeher    
3 Aug 2017  #17

You and I going to debate over other peoples guesses? Nobody but the Russians knows the true state of their armed forces and everything they do recovers around exaggeration.

One unmovable fact; Russia is a huge country with a small economy.
Ironside 44 | 8,292    
3 Aug 2017  #18

Just read

What do you mean? Even in your opening post you say that American and NATO troops are already in Poland and Baltics. So America doesn't has to send anything, already has boot on the ground there.
johnny reb 13 | 2,461    
3 Aug 2017  #19

Things have been ratcheting up this week between the U.S. & Russia & Ukraine

Fighting between Ukrainian fascist forces allied with Ukraine proper and pro-Russian separatists in the Donbass region has escalated in recent days and the proposal comes with tension between the U.S. and Russia, itself being escalated by a sanction bill (...)

activistpost/2017/08/pentagon-state-dept-proposals-arm-ukraine-against-russia.html

Putin can't be happy about this and no doubt will counter.
Crow 138 | 5,830    
3 Aug 2017  #20

What cross my mind is that if they ever got chance, banderists would with equal passion commit bestial genocide, on Russians and on Poles. I hope this madness end in Ukraine
OP Bobko 5 | 100    
4 Aug 2017  #21

Banderists should try to prevent their state from collapsing, before thinking about attacking Russians or Poles.
Crow 138 | 5,830    
4 Aug 2017  #22

banderists are foreign penetration onto Ukraine. Western European gift. Ukraine don`t belong to banderist nazi s***. Same as Poles and Russians, Ukrainians are decent people. My Slavic people. Long suffering. Bandersists are just one of their many sufferings. But it would end. After night comes the morning
weg04    
5 Aug 2017  #23

You lot are a bunch of Putin fan boys. Who gives a **** is a few Ukrainians are Banderists. They are killing Russian Scum, and defending Poland by proxy. So good for them

Russia cannot defeat Ukraine and he won't attach the Baltic's because he will get his yellow-livered arse handed to him on a plate.
weg04    
5 Aug 2017  #24

ever got chance, banderists would with equal passion commit bestial genocide, on Russians and on Poles.

You, as a murderous nationalist, know that this would only happen if Poland invaded Ukraine. International law allows self defence by any means, which is why Ukrainians are killing Russian invading scum, legally and justifiably and are no threat to Poland.
OP Bobko 5 | 100    
9 Aug 2017  #25

which is why Ukrainians are killing Russian invading scum, legally and justifiably and are no threat to Poland.

Russia cannot defeat Ukraine.

Hate to rain on your parade Weg04, but it's kinda been the other way around. Your Ukrainian friends received an epic ass kicking from the Russians. Even more epic than the Georgians received. Ukrainians were being encircled and annihilated in strategic cauldrons with such regularity in the summer of 2014, that they needed Merkel and Hollande to hastily convene a mediation session that resulted in the humiliating Minsk Accords. If it wasn't for Mommy Merkel and Papa Hollande, the Donbass separatists would be in Kiev long ago.

Mind you, that epic ass kicking from the Russians was delivered in such a way that still no one is able to provide conclusive evidence of the presence of regular Russian military formations in east Ukraine. In other words, a few hundred Russians managed to wreck a Ukrainian army that is, on paper at least, many times the strength of Poland's.
Crow 138 | 5,830    
9 Aug 2017  #26

You, as a murderous nationalist, know

You talking to me?

Ukrainians are killing Russian invading scum, legally and justifiably and are no threat to Poland.

First of all, I mentioned banderists, not Ukrainians. And just give them chance, let them close to unprotected Polish civilians and even Pope himself won`t be able to prevent bloodbath. Its because banderists, same as Croatian ustashe, serve first to Germany and just then to Vatican and to USA. So yes, banderists are threat to Poland.

As for legality of that killing, as you said, I can tell you that you gravely mistaking. If there was no EU (ie western Europe) and USA meddling, ethnic Ukrainians and Russians of the region, would talk about new border between them. For, by historical and any moral right, Ukrainians and Russians there are owners of the land. Not to mention Ruthanians and, even Poles and even Serbs have their historical rights there.

What I want to tell you, say one great thanks to Germany and to entire western Europe and to USA because they wanted to f*** Russia over heads of both, ethnic Ukrainians and Russians of what is/was Ukraine.
peterweg 36 | 2,270    
10 Aug 2017  #27

still no one is able to provide conclusive evidence of the presence of regular Russian military formations in east Ukraine

Except the rest of the world has dropped sanctions on Russia and the Russians are screaming about it. Nobody believes you because nobody is that stupid.
Crow 138 | 5,830    
10 Aug 2017  #28

But why not send troops after all? Poland as battlefield could be perfect. Look what business opportunity presented was little Syria. Poland could be even batter chance. Bigger territory, bigger conventional battles, more diverse equipment, transportation, tanks, magnificent air battles, about 40 million peoples for experiments- civilians for collateral damage, millions of Polish refugees and soldiers for cannon fodders. Then, in case that things goes out of control, many big mushrooms. And all that out there, happening to somebody else.

Truly, why not send troops

Oh, how could Britain, France and Germany cry for Poles. Big tears like crocodiles`s tears.
OP Bobko 5 | 100    
10 Aug 2017  #29

Except the rest of the world has dropped sanctions on Russia

If you are referring to U.S. sanctions, then these are mainly tied to the annexation of Crimea and alleged meddling in the 2016 US elections. There is no language there about removal of Russian troops from east Ukraine.

The European sanctions package, on the other hand, is to a greater extent tied to the fulfillment of the different clauses of Minsk 2, but also doesn't mention removal of Russian troops, but rather things like allowing Ukraine to regain full control of the Russian-Ukrainian border in that part of the country.

So I'm not sure what your accusations are about. Looks like you're the only stupid one here. Read the news.
Crow 138 | 5,830    
10 Aug 2017  #30

What Poland need is independent policy.




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