Polonia /
Polonia outraged by EU interference [196]
The other 2 agencies habve upheld Poland's high rating.
Fitch affirmed Poland's Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings at 'A-' and 'A', respectively, with stable outlooks
(outlooks lower than that of S&Ps at the time)The agency noted that the stable outlook reflected the assessment that upside and downside risks to the rating are currently balanced. That said, Fitch warned that
any relaxation of the fiscal stance that worsens the government debt trajectory and weakening of policy credibility or economic performance, could trigger a negative rating action.All the rabble-rousing hoopla by the trough defenders did cause concern and the złoty dropped to 4.11 = $1 last weekend.
The EUR/PLN rate is much more relevant since the majority of business is with the EU and this touched a multi year high of 4.50. The dollar rate itself is at a multiyear high and means the country benefits less from falling oil prices.
For those interested, the summary from S&P:
"The downgrade reflects our view that Poland's system of institutional checks and balances has been eroded significantly as the independence and effectiveness of key institutions, such as the constitutional court and public broadcasting, is being weakened by various legislative measures initiated since the October 2015 election," S&P said. "In our view, these measures erode the strength of Poland's institutions and go beyond what we had anticipated regarding policy changes from the general election," the agency added. The rating outlook was also lowered to 'negative' from 'positive', suggesting at least a one-in-three likelihood that the ratings could be lowered within the next 24 months, if monetary policy credibility is undermined or if public finances deteriorate beyond S&P's current expectations. Further, S&P no longer expect Poland's fiscal metrics to improve, but foresee some reversals in Poland's sound macroeconomic management of the past years, for instance by targeting certain sectors with new taxes. The agency also raised the fiscal deficit forecast for 2016 to 3.2 percent of GDP, saying that various spending-side measures, either planned or announced, are not fully offset by revenue-side measures or expenditure cuts.
Its important to note that S&P did add at the end that they could upgrade their rating if the situation changes for the better with less government interference.