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Why has the US dollar reached almost 3.99 zł in Poland?


Polonius3 1,000 | 12,448
12 Nov 2015 #1
Coupla days ago the US dollar rose to around 3.99 zł but yesty and today has dropped to 3.92? Did the election have anything to do with it or the prospect of cabinet formation? Maybe some international considerations? Anyone know?
jon357 63 | 14,255
12 Nov 2015 #2
There's a lot of mess in the markets at the moment, not just a Poland thing. Mostly to do with the China slowdown and low oil, steel and sugar prices.

I doubt the election has had much effect one way or another. Shares do drop when a government is elected who are perceived as less business-friendly than their rival, however the markets generally rally again over the month unless there's instability and like 'em or not, the transition has been stable.

Given that a Wall Street Crash was predicted by some for last month, things have only actually been slightly bad. Rolls Royce shares plummeted today, down 20% last time I could bear to look due to a profit warning. Hopefully they've rallied a bit. Sod's Law that I bought a lot (by my standards) when they appointed a new CEO a while ago.

Where are the four horsemen of the Apocalypse when you need them...
Levi 12 | 450
12 Nov 2015 #3
Nothing to do with the Election. In the entire world this year the USD gained a lot of Power.

The currency from Chile (where i lived before) went from 480 Pesos / USD to 700 Pesos / USD....
jon357 63 | 14,255
12 Nov 2015 #4
In the entire world this year the USD gained a lot of Power.

And very good too, for those who get paid in $$.

Not so good for American exporters and the knock-on that has for their domestic figures. The changes this week in the zloty aren't to do with that. More about commodities, production and the China market.
delphiandomine 83 | 17,788
13 Nov 2015 #5
Anyone know?

Sometimes it's just pure speculation. The Złoty isn't traded heavily on international markets, so it tends to bounce around a lot.

Interesting is to look at the PLN vs CZK/HUF - over the last few years, you can really see how much stronger the PLN has been.
OP Polonius3 1,000 | 12,448
20 Jan 2016 #6
Merged: $1 = 4.13 zł on Wednesday, 20th January - anyone know why?s

The US dollar was fetching 4.11zł last Saturday and then dropped to 4.09zł. Today it has soared to 4.13zł. Anyone know why?
delphiandomine 83 | 17,788
20 Jan 2016 #7
The CHF is now at 4.11PLN as well. It's because the forced conversion of mortgages will destroy the banks financially, hence no-one wants to be holding anything in złoty now.
polishinvestor 1 | 362
20 Jan 2016 #8
Stockmarkets across the globe are falling and that means people are exiting trades in Asia and CEE, places deemed higher risk. So you are seeing outflows from the currencies. This is aside from domestic policy in Poland. This always happens when stockmarkets in developed nations fall sharply - people move into the dollar and US treasuries as they are deemed safe. The dollar should stop in its tracks in the near future but the euro may move even higher against the zloty as that does focus a lot on domestic issues in Poland since its the most liquid of the zloty currency pairs.
jon357 63 | 14,255
20 Jan 2016 #9
currencies

Stockmarkets across the globe are falling and that means people are exiting trades in Asia and CEE

Horrific isn't it. I'm down thousands this week.

This always happens when stockmarkets in developed nations fall sharply - people move into the dollar and US treasuries as they are deemed safe

Sterling too. Still strong against the złoty and the current instability within Poland can only contribute to that.
OP Polonius3 1,000 | 12,448
20 Jan 2016 #10
current instability

Things will stabilise in Poland as soon as the rabble-rousers stop whipping up hysteria and sending nervous signals abroad.
jon357 63 | 14,255
20 Jan 2016 #11
Things will stabilise in Poland as soon as the rabble-rousers

are voted out of office. Until then we can expect the same continued instability that we've had since the election.
polishinvestor 1 | 362
20 Jan 2016 #12
Sterling would be much higher if not for the EU referendum, so there's still a chance it will be unwound. I cant see it much below 5,70. In fact I will strongly consider making a purchase there. Last year saw large outflow from emerging markets this year will be no different so zloty should stay weak relative to others.

As for the markets we have touched stocks for a long time. There could be an opportunity presenting itself shortly but it depends on how the central banks approach the matter. As for Poland, last year we disposed of pretty much most of no yielding for profit assets and are sitting on cash. We still have yielding assets and are looking to add but politics makes one sit on the sidelines expecting a better price.
Jardinero 1 | 407
21 Jan 2016 #13
USD = 4.14 PLN today.
Do you see GBP going > 6.00 PLN in the next 2-3 months?
dolnoslask
21 Jan 2016 #14
GBP going > 6.00 PLN Nice one I will transfer more cash over, buy more building materials.
polishinvestor 1 | 362
21 Jan 2016 #15
I see zloty weak all year. More vs euro and maybe gbp, less vs dollar. Normally gbp would be well over 6 like the rest of them, but because of Brexit fears, the gbp has been just as weak or weaker.than the zloty. This may change very shortly and we will see pound move a little over the 6 mark. If the Brits vote for no Brexit, then you might see the pound as high as 6.50. But if I had pounds to sell, Id sell above 6 as the referendum isnt a foregone conclusion and really 6 is what you got about 10 years ago, so a pretty good price anyway. The main problem the zloty faces is outflows from emerging markets compounded by a less investor friendly government, while neighbours Hungary are improving relations and give ample opportunity to make the switch for those that want exposure to the CEE region but dont want the risk of more political woes.

We might see 4.70 but Id think ahead of 5 euros there should be a lot of value investors hunting. Dollar might have its own problems so dont see it too much higher.
porky pok 2 | 127
26 Feb 2016 #16
$ again hit 4.0027pln again.
porky pok 2 | 127
27 Feb 2016 #18
Honestly NOPE?But would like to know.
johnny reb 20 | 4,102
27 Feb 2016 #19
Oil which is traded in U.S. dollars.
Saudi just announced it will let oil fall to $20 a barrel which will put a strangle hold on the smaller oil companies.
There is a glut of oil world wide right now.
The U.S. is encouraging investors NOT to invest in Russia to help the sanctions in place against them.
The value of the U.S. dollar should be dropping very soon.
When that happens you will see super inflation world wide.
This next recession is going to make 2008 look like a cake walk.
porky pok 2 | 127
27 Feb 2016 #20
Johnny,you mean gas business will go down to tubes?I have recently seen for last cpl of years that exxon,shell,BP,sunoco and all big companies selling there gas station properties.is there something coming?Should the current private gas station owners sell there properties?
delphiandomine 83 | 17,788
27 Feb 2016 #21
When that happens you will see super inflation world wide.

Good news. Super inflation erodes the value of my mortgage. I'm all for it.

Do you know why?

CEE currencies are just weak in general, Hungary is talking about a negative interest rate, which probably means that FX traders expect something similar with the złoty.
OP Polonius3 1,000 | 12,448
27 Feb 2016 #22
Hungary

Poland has been victimised unwittingly by underinformed Westerners. Also in the past when one of the CE currencies was hurting, such investors figured that must also affect Poland at times when the złoty was rather stable. But supposedly other factors exist: US econ results, Chinese stock exchange, oil prices, formerly Grexit, euro problems...

Assuming that Brexit actually takes place, how would that affect the $, € and zł?
johnny reb 20 | 4,102
27 Feb 2016 #23
Johnny,you mean gas business will go down to tubes?

Here is an example.
At a Houston conference drawing oil-company executives and officials from producing countries, Mr. Naimi ruled out coordinated production cuts across OPEC and non-OPEC nations to address an oversupply that has caused crude prices to drop 70% since June 2014. Oil supply is outstripping demand by a million barrels a day.

Saudi said they will sell oil for $20 a barrel and still make money.
This will decimate the smaller countries oil production.
The bigger companies profits have taken a huge hit so they are selling off properties.
Yes something VERY big is coming but I refuse to go into detail to be mocked by the know it all idiots here.
The value of world currencies are going to drop unbelievable soon to the point people will not be able to pay their mortgage.
The banks in America have already prepared for this and the last place I would have my money is in a bank right now.
For example......one of my broker accounts just informed me that I must switch my money market core account to one of their
core accounts.
When I ask them if the reason for this is because negative interest rates where about to happen in the world banking market his reply was, "we haven't been informed of that yet". Yeah, right, I thought I asked a yes or no question.

All I will say is folks, hang on because it is going to be a very bumpy ride from here on out.
Even buying gold at this point will not save your assets.
The big banks will be charging you a negative interest rate (stealing your money) while they use YOUR money to make money by investing
your money plus charging you to keep your money in their banks.
Can't wait to see everyone running to the banks to withdraw their savings to put under their mattress.
Here is a website that explains it all.
CrashingBanks.com
delphiandomine 83 | 17,788
27 Feb 2016 #24
The value of world currencies are going to drop unbelievable soon to the point people will not be able to pay their mortgage.

Doesn't bother me. The PLN drops, my mortgage gets ever cheaper. Works for me.

The big banks will be charging you a negative interest rate (stealing your money) while they use YOUR money to make money by investing your money plus charging you to keep your money in their banks.

I'd love negative interest rates. Just had a look at my contract and there's no floor to my deal, meaning that if it heads into negative territory, the bank will be paying part of the original loan for me.
bald blanky - | 7
27 Feb 2016 #25
Since when polish banks have fixed rate mortgages?
OP Polonius3 1,000 | 12,448
16 May 2016 #26
Merged: Dollar dips following Moody's announcemnt

On the first working day following Moody's announcement that Poland's rating would not be downgraded, the złoty rebounded to 3.86 to the US dollar from 3.91 several days earlier. Moody's downgraded only the outlook from stable to negative, pointing to "a substantial increase in (Poland's) current expenditures and a shift towards more unpredictable policies and legislation". Since the Polish economy is in good shape and the European Union has raised its 2016 GDP growth forecast to 3.6 from 3.3 percent, the decision was largely the result of intensive lobbying by the country's anti-government opposition. In January, Standard & Poor's downgraded Poland's rating. The Fitch rating agency, the other remaining member of the big three, is expected to announce its decision on Poland this summer.
smurf 39 | 1,981
16 May 2016 #27
What's the point in rehashing press releases?
Like, you're written nothing here that we've not already read 20 times today

How much are you paid to shill?

anyway, the FT seems to think PiS are gonna be in more trouble with the EU coz they're kinda crappy at budgets :D

imgur.com/Ou4d6vJ
Grzegorz_ 51 | 6,163
16 May 2016 #28
Budget deficit at 3% of GDP, shock and horror after all these years with surplus.

Oh wait :))))))))
tradingeconomics.com/poland/government-budget
smurf 39 | 1,981
16 May 2016 #29
Budget deficit at 3% of GDP

which breaches EU budgetary rules

Sanctions here we come baby!
OP Polonius3 1,000 | 12,448
16 May 2016 #30
less business-friendly

More antics with semantics?! With PO scam-friendly and foreign-interest group-friendly would be more approrpriate and truthfully descriptive.
The EU-cartel-mafia will applaud Poland only as long as she agrees to continued neo-colonial exploitation as a milkable cheap manpower and tax-break zone. The minute Poland gets up off her knees and tries to assert her sovereignty, the powers that be clamp down. They support only their KOD shills and the movement's useful-idiot marchers.


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