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Do you believe that western Europe (ie EU) won`t punish Poland if Poland try to go out of EU?


Crow 143 | 7,507
17 Jan 2016  #1
For many years i tries to tell something, i tries to explain. Now, i am fascinated that all that focusing in one very simple question, while answer or answers on that question reveal true reality of situation - Do you believe that western Europe (ie EU) won`t punish Poland if Poland try to go out of EU?

and to even reformulate question - Are friendly relations possible between western Europe and Poland, if Poland abandon EU, with no hostility from Poland on western Europe but only with Poland`s intention to be independent, even with publicly announce desire from Poland that wants warm friendly ties with western Europe after abandoning EU?
kpc21 1 | 763
17 Jan 2016  #2
Noone will have to punish Poland for leaving EU, it will be simply destructive for its economy.
OP Crow 143 | 7,507
17 Jan 2016  #3
So, in other words, you think EU would cut major economic ties and contracts with Poland if Poland go out of EU. Is that what you say?

But we all see that EU member states tries to develop good economic ties with China, for example, with anybody, with USA, even with Russia, even no matter sanctions to Russia, in order to economically profit. Why then cut ties with Poland on fields where exist common interest between Poland and some western European country?
InPolska 11 | 1,821
17 Jan 2016  #4
"Geez", what do you drink and smoke, Crow, to imagine things???? Why would Poland leave the EU????? Poland is the no.1 funds' recipient and could develop thanks to EU's money. Do you think Poles are insane and want to kill the hen with golden eggs???? My goodness, in Serbia, you are very isolated and live in your own world!
kpc21 1 | 763
17 Jan 2016  #5
So, in other words, you think EU would cut major economic ties and contracts with Poland if Poland go out of EU. Is that what you say?

It might be so.

Why then cut ties with Poland on fields where exist common interest between Poland and some western European country?

It's difficult not to cut ties with Russia, when you need Russian gas. China and USA are much bigger and more developed countries.

Maybe they will not necessarily cut economic ties, but they will cease pumping huge amounts of money into Poland, in the infrastructure and so on, as they are doing now.

Poland is not Norway, neither is it Switzetland. It needs to cooperate with others to stay alive. Our most important natural resource, proud of the nation, is coal, from extraction of which we not only get no money, but we have to pay extra for that...

By the way, it's more likely that Poland will get thrown out of the EU than that it will leave it on its own.
Bogatyr
17 Jan 2016  #6
Totally correct, Poland will have no say in whether it stays in the EU or not.
Poland is heavily reliant on Russia and always will be.
Coal is yesterdays news, last weeks T.Shirt.
Grzegorz_ 51 | 6,170
17 Jan 2016  #7
It will likely take a war to leave that thing.
Harry
17 Jan 2016  #8
Do you believe that western Europe (ie EU) won`t punish Poland if Poland try to go out of EU?

You might as well ask if we think western Europe will punish Poland if Poles decide that the whole of Poland is to be transformed into a vast unicorn farm. Although that event is rather more likely, given that a number of Poles like unicorns, while virtually none have any wish to leave the EU which Poland does so well in.
OP Crow 143 | 7,507
17 Jan 2016  #9
Maybe they will not necessarily cut economic ties, but they will cease pumping huge amounts of money into Poland, in the infrastructure and so on, as they are doing now.

alright, let us presume that western Europe don`t cut economic ties with Poland. After all, Poland have some friends on the west of Europe. At least declarative.

So, no annul of contracts of mutual interests. But, for sure there won`t be money from EU funds. Then, Poland is great market. That is interesting. Some investors from western Europe would for sure like to stay in Poland and new would like to come, exactly because Poland isn`t part of EU. Have in mind that, for example, Fiat abandoned Poland no matter Poland`s EU membership. In my opinion, at least on the short run, to attract investors Poland would have to lower the wages. It immediately rise question- are Poles ready to pay that price for independence? But, on the other side, have in mind, if Poland have developed economic ties with China, Russia, India, Japan, USA and rest of the world, it would for sure help that Polish economy consolidate faster if Poland one day leave EU. Most important for maneuverable space of Polish economy is to have strong political and economic ties with countries from Baltic to Balkan via Central Europe. For sure, in first and hardest days when/if Poland leave EU, traditionally loyal, friendly and economically capable countries from the region can greatly compensate lack of funds in Polish economy. Countries like: Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Serbia.

It will likely take a war to leave that thing.

i myself was sure about that few years ago but, with time, i see that new era of multi-polar world may prevent that what happened to Yugoslavia happen to Poland. It is possible. Have in mind that if Poland decide to go out of EU, in multi-polar world, western Europe would at least like to keep some influence on Poland and that is possible only with at least declarative friendly ties and at least minimal economic cooperation. Rest of economic input-output Poland would have to make with the rest of world, what is even desirable for any independent state, especially for one that seek to be center of one civilization.

By the way, it's more likely that Poland will get thrown out of the EU than that it will leave it on its own.

Totally correct, Poland will have no say in whether it stays in the EU or not.

Poland would have say on the subject. Especially if have internal stability. If isn`t stable from within then, there is the all kind of problems, if Poland tries to go out of EU. Questions like Silesia and some other border regions, near to the countries that are EU members. Yes, Poland may face problems of local separatist movements that would like to stay within EU. Mechanisms? well, its for discussion.

Poland is heavily reliant on Russia and always will be.

Poland should be related to whole world when it comes to economy. When it comes to politics, Poland should focus on countries from Baltic to Balkan and Ukraine, via Central Europe. Today`s Poland looks to me quite isolated and heavily dependent on western Europe.
polishinvestor 1 | 362
17 Jan 2016  #10
When the EU was drawn up there were no set rules for a member leaving the union. They are not going to kick anyone out or let them leave as it will set a precedent. In fact Poland has agreed to join the euro but it has signed to an exact date, this was the condition on joining the EU. Because the UK joined much earlier and was seen as a more important partner, Thatcher was able to avoid the euro clause and also managed to get a right to veto. Poland was late joining so wasnt able to make demands.

Russian and Ukraine exports have fallen throught the floor for Poland given sanctions and war, so its much more dependant on Europe and in particular Germany, a fair bit of manufacturing produce goes over there and it needs a strong Germany to keep that up.
NocyMrok
17 Jan 2016  #11
so its much more dependant on Europe and in particular Germany

This is what should be changed and PiS seems to go in that direction.
OP Crow 143 | 7,507
17 Jan 2016  #12
NocyMrok, i agree with you. i think that Polish leadership understand situation pretty well. No matter what would Poland decide, to stay or to leave EU, Poland have to have better economic relations with rest of the world, not just to depend on western Europe. Even more so, having in mind that Polish leadership, aware of bad sides of EU membership but also advantages of Intermarium, considering option that is Poland one day outside of EU.

That is the reason why Duda in first days of his presidency, after announced plans for Intermarium, decided to visit China and meet with Chinese president. There he got green light for better economic cooperation and also political support. China will support Polish intention to become a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council.
kpc21 1 | 763
17 Jan 2016  #13
Although that event is rather more likely, given that a number of Poles like unicorns, while virtually none have any wish to leave the EU which Poland does so well in.

Well, in £ódź we already have a stable for unicorns.

Crow, Poland leaving (or thrown out of) the EU is nothing more than political fiction.

Noone (I mean no country) in the western Europe will start a war in Europe, it's the most stupid thing they could do. Something we should be afraid of is some kind of a civil war due to unpopular politicians decisions, like letting immigrants from Arabic countries do too much in Germany.

Yes, Poland may face problems of local separatist movements that would like to stay within EU.

No, you are totally wrong :) Poland is probably the most homogenous country in Europe (or, for sure, one of the most homogenous ones). There is simply noone who could start such separatist movements. Silesians are considered themselves to be Poles.

Poland should be related to whole world when it comes to economy.

It is, like almost each country in the world these times. Now the world is a single huge economy and everything relies on export and import. We buy TVs of Korean and Japanese (or, in the best case, Dutch) companies, made of parts manufactured in China, assembled in Czech Republic, Poland or Hungary. Not a long time ago there was a moment when the prices of the computer memories rapidly jumped up due to... floods in the areas where most of them was manufactured (AFAIK somewhere in the East-South Asia) and damaged factories.

China will support Polish intention to become a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council.

Poland is trying to establish economic cooperation with China for a longer time. From 2013 there is, for example, a cargo train from £ódź to Chengdu - and from August 2015 it is carrying goods not only from China to Poland, but also from Poland to China (in this direction - mainly food).
NocyMrok
17 Jan 2016  #14
Thing is there is virtually no Pole that is against the idea of Paneuropean Union. Majority of Poles are simply against EU in its current state which is an economic version of oligarch driven USSR.
kpc21 1 | 763
18 Jan 2016  #15
Why do you think that majority?
delphiandomine 85 | 17,823
18 Jan 2016  #16
Wasn't there an opinion poll not so long ago that showed the majority were massively in favour of the EU?

Here we go : gazetaprawna

Poles still overwhelmingly accept our membership in the European Union. In the November survey, the CBOS poll showed support for Polish membership in the EU was declared by 84 percent of respondents. Opposition was expressed by 10%.

Seems pretty clear to me that NocyMrok is speaking nonsense.
OP Crow 143 | 7,507
18 Jan 2016  #17
will you please enlighten me, why then Duda spoke of Intermarium? what kind of political maneuvering is that, then? and we speak of president that won on elections. Do you say that Duda as president forcing one political idea and that he don`t have political support for that idea?

i ask, because on the long run, Intermarium means going out of EU. Its must. So, you must be wrong. If Duda spoke of Intermarium, he must believe that he have support.
NocyMrok
18 Jan 2016  #18
I believe it doesn't have to mean going out of EU immediately. In the case of Poland that is. It could be like the Balkan Confederation idea. Or it could exist as parallel to EU for some time before its fully developed and getting significance.
OP Crow 143 | 7,507
19 Jan 2016  #19
yes, i also sense that Poland won`t go out of EU immediately. It would be process. Now, what would EU (ie western Europe) during that process and what when is Poland finally out of EU, that`s a million dollar question.
polishinvestor 1 | 362
19 Jan 2016  #20
There is no mandate for any member leaving either the euro or the EU. In Polands case accepting the euro would require a change in the constitution and 75% referendum vote (its highly unlikely that 75% of voting Poles would vote for such). Id suggest similar would be required to allow the government at the time to address the situation in Brussels. But even so, there is nothing in the EU framework to cover this. There is also the financial aspect to consider and neither side would be able to agree on numbers. A pipe dream for communists nothing more.
delphiandomine 85 | 17,823
19 Jan 2016  #21
In Polands case accepting the euro would require a change in the constitution and 75% referendum vote (its highly unlikely that 75% of voting Poles would vote for such).

Where did you get the 75% number from? It doesn't exist in Polish law, and the EU would have strong words to say about a referendum that was rigged in such a way.
polishinvestor 1 | 362
19 Jan 2016  #22
Sorry a change in constitution requires 2/3 of parliament voting for it, something that will be required to join the euro. Prior to that, talk was that the people of Poland who need to vote on it via a referendum and then it would go to parliament if the referendum achieved a 75% vote. This second part was just discussion but the first part is set in stone. And I presume leaving EU would demand similar approach.
OP Crow 143 | 7,507
19 Jan 2016  #23
so for you its all financial. No political consequences for Poland because of leaving EU?

Anyway, call me naive, but i do believe that friendly relations between western Europe and Poland could be maintained in case Poland leave EU. At least in the same level as in case of Poland`s-USA, Poland`s-Chinese, Poland`s-Russian, etc relations.
Borsukrates 5 | 131
19 Jan 2016  #24
Crow, have you read and watched lectures with Jacek Bartosiak ? He clearly says why Intermarium isn't a bright idea.
InPolska 11 | 1,821
19 Jan 2016  #25
The EU have demanded Duda and Szydło (sorry, I am not sure of spelling) to bring their a### to Brussels and to Strasburg and guess what, they have obeyed (too scarred that EU closes the cookie jar ;).
Ironside 47 | 9,572
19 Jan 2016  #26
The EU have demanded

They can demand nothing! How hard is it to understand?
OP Crow 143 | 7,507
19 Jan 2016  #27
He clearly says why Intermarium isn't a bright idea.

Idea of Intermarium originates from Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth and Commonwealth was best what happened to Poles in last 1000 years. It triggered golden age in Poland. It was positive for Serbs, Hungarians, others. It was good. It established balance with Russians. It stooped penetration of Germanics and Islamic Ottomans.

Sure, everything could be criticized, improved. But, point is that we don`t have alternative in world that globalize.
polishinvestor 1 | 362
19 Jan 2016  #28
so for you its all financial. No political consequences for Poland because of leaving EU?

All starts and finishes with money. Monies paid by the EU to Poland will at some level have to be reimbursed prior to leaving. They wont be able to agree on this. So its a non starter. If Poland walks away on its own terms it will be hit with sanctions and shakes hands with Ukraine. Its simply suicidal and there are no benefits for Poland in this.
InPolska 11 | 1,821
19 Jan 2016  #29
Absolutely, Polishinvestor! It may be unfortunate but everything turns around money....
OP Crow 143 | 7,507
19 Jan 2016  #30
We shall see now how many true or just so called friends Poland have on the west of Europe. Maybe France? Britain? Maybe they show understanding for attempt of Poland to brake free and to offer them hand as equal partner, as center of another (Intermarium) but still friendly civilization. Would France be the one who shall understand Poland and accept offered hand?

Great times


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