History / What should Russia and Poland do to become if not friends, then at least not enemies? [945]


Considering that there are 110M ethnic Russians living in Russia, I will assume you are advocating a genocide against the Russian people.


I wouldn't be surprised if there were a couple hundred thousand Polish citizens that would quite like it if they had a preferential path to a Russian work permit over other Europeans. There are hundreds of Polish companies in Russia. Nobody likes to deal with bureaucracy, and it can be a huge obstacle to business.

News / Americans incite hatred towards Russia in Polish media [75]

@pawian

A weakening ruble is great for the Kremlin.

It means the budget makes the same amount of money, even if commodity prices (which are in USD) go lower.

This, in turn, reduces the deficit.

It makes it easy to pay off Ruble-denominated debts, because as a country we mostly earn in foreign currency.

A weakening ruble is bad for Russians that:

1) Like to buy imported things

2) Like to vacation abroad

3) Have a business arrangement, where they owe someone foreign currency, while they are earning in rubles.

For Putin, a weakening ruble is the fastest way to close the gap on the budget deficit. We sell oil, gas, metals for dollars, euro, yuan, but have to pay pensions and state salaries in rubles. So if every dollar from oil exports, now brings 100 rubles instead of 70 - that's quite convenient.

History / What should Russia and Poland do to become if not friends, then at least not enemies? [945]


I have a hard time seeing Putin celebrating Poland's EU and NATO status.


Defend them when they get attacked, no problem. But only when they really get attacked.

History / What should Russia and Poland do to become if not friends, then at least not enemies? [945]

Polish-Russian Friendship - Realism Edition:

I will start with what Poland must do:

1) It is unreasonable for us to expect Poland to leave the EU, however, it can begin to act as Russia's advocate within the EU. The same way it does for Ukraine.

2) Simplify travel requirements, and liberalize the movement of goods between Kaliningrad Oblast and Poland.

3) Defend Russia's position on the defense of the Russian language in the Baltics.

4) Resist sending any Polish forces to various American adventures around the world.

Now, as a Russian this is a little more difficult for me, but I will try to list what Russia can do symmetrically on its part to improve relations:

1) Declare, as a foreign policy principle, that a Poland within NATO and within the EU is fully acceptable to Russians and even to our advantage.

2) Simplify entry for Polish business into the Russian market.

3) Remove visa requirements for Poles (even though Poles would not be able to make this reciprocal due to obligations to Brussels).

4) Allow Poles to gain work permits within Russia, on a simplified basis.

Things both countries can do:

1) Foster student exchanges

2) Host a "Year of Russian Culture in Poland", and a "Year of Polish Culture in Russia", to reintroduce the two to each other.

3) Form "historical remembrance commissions", where historians - not politicians, can study questions like Katyn, Warsaw Uprising, etc.

Something like that.

History / Warsaw Rising 1944 - National Disaster or Triumph of Spirit ? [515]


Not sure this is the case, to be honest. If anything, it showed us how much Poles hate us - that they were willing to throw out that many lives to avoid falling under communist control.

By the time of the Warsaw Uprising, everybody in Moscow already had quite a good idea of Poland's "berserk bravery". There is of course the long, and ancient history. But then, just two decades earlier there was also the Polish-Soviet war, where the Soviet Union suffered an embarrassing defeat (and where Stalin acted as a field commander).

Losing in a war to the Poles, one could argue, is a little bit more impressive of a "reminder" than watching them fight a one-sided battle with the Wehrmacht for a few months.

History / Did Poles living in Germany support Hitler's rise to power before World War II? [161]

What a strange topic...

Not Poles, but Poles in Germany. How many were there? Are you talking about Polish citizens living in Germany, or ethnic Poles with German citizenship?

News / Poland highest inflation in 20 years [319]


Certainly these two are those most capable of directly affecting inflation, but it doesn't mean it's necessarily caused by them.

In the case of the United States, insane spending definitely played a role in driving a surge of inflation. However, it's hard to say to what extent it was a bigger factor than the pandemic-related supply chain shocks.

Trump passed a total of $3T in pandemic stimulus bills, and then Biden another $1.9T. That's basically $5 trillion dollars of spending that would not have occurred otherwise. Inflation surged immediately after - this was not a coincidence. They were literally putting thousand dollar checks into every American's pocket - driving up demand for everything, while at the same time supply was struggling more than ever before due to myriad bottlenecks created by the pandemic.

Shortages of key components, such as chips, drove up the price of everything - from cars to medical equipment.

In any case, what you guys are discussing is an incredibly complicated subject, that economists have debated over for centuries. What is inflation, and what causes it, is not a straightforward thing at all. The modern debate is between a monetarist school (broadly what Novichok argues), and the Keynesian school (which argues that short term fluctuations in demand as well as cost pressures play an important role).

To some extent, you folks are conflating a currency's devaluation, with an increase in the price of goods - but that is not always the case, and this is easily demonstrable. Anyway, let's not make this an academic debate.

Travel / Being Transgender and visiting Wroclaw [467]

I would never go from being male to being a female. The lines to the bathroom are so incredibly long. I imagine there must be quite a lot of time management that goes into peeing, otherwise you risk going in your pants.

After a movie ends, I'm in and out of the bathroom in no time. Then I wait 15 mins for my girlfriend.

Even in the outdoors, where there are no lines - the peeing experience is incomparable. Having twigs and thorns scraping at my ass, instead of wistfully staring at the horizon as I stand proud and do my business.

This is not to say, that being a transgender tourist in Wrocław is not a safe thing to do.

Life / Gas / Benzyna prices in Poland [29]


Silly Jon... How do you buy things like Polska Press without outrageous profits?

Life / In need of good Polish jokes about Polish culture, people, etc [239]

This made me laugh:

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News / Russian criticism of Poland - Soviet war memorial removal [332]

Really? No! You are lying! This cannot be.

Why? Are they brain dead?

News / Polish Parliamentary Elections 2023 [933]


Yes, air has been cleared, and hate has been established.

Now a tell me again, how your buttocks clench at the thought of PiS forging a nationalist coalition.

News / Russian criticism of Poland - Soviet war memorial removal [332]


Very nice. Dismissing 600K dead with one wave of the hand.

Sending good thoughts to my great grandpa that burned alive in a tank under Warsaw, instead of stopping at the Soviet border and enjoying the rest of his life.

News / Polish Parliamentary Elections 2023 [933]


Another worrying sign of Polish-Ukrainian closeness.

Famous Ukrainian saying is: "where there are two Ukrainians, there are three hetmans".

News / Polish Parliamentary Elections 2023 [933]


What is with these names?

Why so many bloody parties?

Does it really further democracy, when every voter can basically have his own party? To me, this type of fracturing indicates an intellectual vacuum and absence of substance.

The problems facing Poland are simple. The top list consists of maybe 5 items. There are maybe three different ways to approach each of them. This is enough for 3-4 parties to really chew and digest. What the hell do the other parties do?

News / Poland highest inflation in 20 years [319]


Well yes, but again - do you know what to look for? Some porcelain cup from China might seem priceless to you, but an appraiser will later tell you that it's an imitation made in Japanese-occupied Formosa brought back by someone's grandad from Malaysia.


Oh f*ck. Is it a map of Guyana? I would buy that from you. I did some work for a project offshore (remotely from NY). If you really did buy an antique map of Guyana with that in mind - pretty savvy!

News / Poland highest inflation in 20 years [319]


This. If you know what to buy, definitely the best hedge against inflation. It's not like you have to be alone in figuring this out either - there are mature industries around these things, and plenty of professionals prepared to advise. Just for fun, go to the next Sotheby's or Christie's show next to where you are . You'll be surprised that many items are going for $10, $20K and not millions and millions. You don't even have to buy the items outright, but can again enter fractionally with other investors (but then you can't hang it up at home, instead it gets locked in a vault somewhere in the alps).

I may sound like some trash Forbes writer, but "art" really is the inflation hedge of the rich. Along with trophy properties.

But do buy something that has at least some promise. Don't go blowing hundreds of quid on antiques in your local shop. There are websites for this type of stuff, as there is for everything. I think Masterworks.com is one, and artelier.com another. There are a few of these startups popping up every year that are trying to "democratize" art investment.

News / Poland highest inflation in 20 years [319]


Which a retail investor should never try to do anyway. The system is completely rigged towards the market makers, and large institutions when it comes to making a fast buck. Normies that make a quick buck are lucky exceptions.


Gold is the worst for that. A compact store of wealth, that is completely untraceable and for all intents and purposes practically irrecoverable.


Another good thing. Avoid all the "Forex" sites like the plague. These are essentially criminal operations, parting good people with their money. Guys with PhDs that work at hedge funds, haven't a clue about where currencies will move - but just make educated guesses. Your chances against them are hopeless.

Of all things mentioned, bonds are probably the safest bet. Gilts are kind of a complicated story, I would rather look at US Treasuries.

That being said, if you did well on your real estate investments, why not just continue with that? If you don't have the means at this moment to buy something interesting outright, you could still invest into REITs. Real estate investment trusts own income producing properties, and as a shareholder you're paid your little share of the rent, as well as earn from the appreciation of the underlying asset. But be careful with REITs - study them carefully, and if unsure ask me - I'll tell you if it's trash.

News / Poland highest inflation in 20 years [319]

The problem with regulating prices, is you can tell businessmen what to sell something at, and you can even place export barriers so they have nowhere else to go - but you cannot force them to continue producing something.

If I'm used to enjoying a 30% gross profit margin on sales of my eggs to Tesco, and then suddenly my freight, labor, feed, and fuel prices go up - eroding my margin to 10% - I'm not going to be very inclined to continue in the business of selling eggs. I might even try to go grow something, which the UK government has not started regulating yet, so I can once again earn the profits that are necessary to develop and grow.

News / Poland highest inflation in 20 years [319]

In my industry, this is typically interpreted as some sign of weak mindedness.

In general - historically - yes, gold has acted as a good hedge against inflation. Except, for those cases when its price fell like a rock - far more than the Sterling or Dollar ever fell.

Gold is highly volatile. None of our currencies are pegged to gold anymore, and developments in the mining industry or idiosyncratic shifts in price due to changes in investor sentiment can create huge volatility.

If you held gold instead of USD, over the last century - you would have done well. If you did it for shorter periods of time over the last 10-15 years - then you are more likely to have been wrecked than made any return.

Right now inflation is at historic highs - what is gold doing? Well - it's actually moving sideways. It hasn't gone up all that much - what a great hedge against inflation!

Land is better than gold.

Stocks of very good companies are better than gold.

Bonds are better than gold. They are literally designed to provide higher yields, as inflation goes higher.

Other currencies are better than gold. For example, for US investors wary of inflation, the Japanese Yen has for a long time acted as a safe haven. As one currency weakens, you can always find another that is strengthening.

Please do not buy gold unless it is to wear it.

News / Poland highest inflation in 20 years [319]


The zloty certainly IS a reason.

The strength of the zloty, forint, koruna is in fact a direct result of inflation. The incredibly high (in recent historic terms) interest rates, make it attractive to hold zlotys for some investors. As the Polish central bank continues to attempt to tame inflation by keeping interest rates high, the zloty will continue to be strong - yes. But you are missing my broader point about the benefits/drawbacks (depending on context) of being on the zloty vs the euro.

Being on the zloty, means - as I explained above - having much higher interest rates than in the eurozone. What does this mean in practice? It means it is much more expensive for businesses to borrow. While leading to a general economic contraction, it also means that business are going to attempt to pass on these costs to consumers. What do we call it when costs to consumers rise?


Here I agree

News / Poland highest inflation in 20 years [319]


Poland has itself to blame, though I can appreciate the politics.

1) The main driver of inflation, across the board - regardless of industry - is energy prices. Nobody held a gun to Poland's head when it came to reducing purchases of Russian energy. Great virtue signaling, but you didn't have even a 1/10th of the resources the Germans had to address the issue.

2) One thing which could have significantly depressed prices for key food items in Poland, is if you opened your market to Ukrainian agri-produce. Of course, this would come at the price of the destruction of your own agriculture industry (something many countries did, perhaps not as rural in demographic profile as Poland).

3) Idiots have been appointed by PiS into the economic bloc of the cabinet, as well at the Central Bank. Main criteria seems to be loyalty to Chairman Kaczynski's unorthodox views on how markets work.

4) Being on the Zloty, in times like these, is of course a much more probable way of ending up with high inflation, than being on the Euro.

Setting price controls, as Jon wants, is rarely a good solution. Key word - rarely. Those rare cases where it sort of, maybe, potentially works - are almost all cases where prices are set higher than would otherwise exist in the market - not lower. This is normally done to benefit a thin cohort of farmers, at the expense of the rest of the population. Price controls in the other direction, are great at putting people out of business.

Life / Specific Military to join? [13]


Eh? What do you mean?

There's plenty of romantics/autists in the Russian and Ukrainian military too - despite all efforts of commanding officers to beat this dangerous mindset out of their minds before they kill somebody.

Life / Specific Military to join? [13]

Sorry in advance for offending anyone - but the military service threads on PF are kinda scary. I imagine that it is in fact representative of a large segment of the type of people that actually enlist. The fact that it is these people heading there is what scares me.

A normal soldier:

1) Doesn't want to be one
2) Hates the service
3) Is good at making friends and keeping himself entertained through long periods of excruciating boredom
4) Has a healthy disdain for authority
5) Definitely does not see himself as a knight (these are the guys that get the other guys killed)

Just some thoughts.

News / Polish Parliamentary Elections 2023 [933]


Interesting characterization. A sort of Russian interpretation, versus a Chinese one - if one is to think of it in terms of Communist philosophy.

Though Lenin sometimes argued that peasants can be a revolutionary force, he really thought of them as one of the main enemies of the proletariat. Exactly for the reasons described above - he viewed them as a reactionary force.

Mao, of course, thought the Revolution could and should be built on the peasants. Guess he didn't have much choice, since there existed practically no proletariat.

History / I want Kawalers. [10]

Have to say - most funny title for a thread. It looks like you are looking for eligible bachelors to marry. Are you, by chance, a woman?

Can you explain to me the difference between a knight and a kawaler - in your opinion?

News / Russian criticism of Poland - Soviet war memorial removal [332]


Ughhh... thanks for keeping my faith in Poles alive.

News / Americans incite hatred towards Russia in Polish media [75]


Fool.

Good for America. Good for China. Bad for Europe.

History / 1920 Germany Lands in exchange for the Eastern Lands? [31]


I understand you are inclined to view fellow Slavs as ballast, unless they have been thoroughly cucked by Latins, but all I meant is that adding some millions of people that are broadly your blood relations should not be seen as some tragedy.

Where does all this love for the Czechs come from? What happened to - "biggest country in europe", "shield of christendom", "teaching French to eat with forks"? All that, was thanks to ballast of Lithuanians.

Life / In Poland on holiday - need help with bad case of homesickness [108]


Few things in life are easier done than said. In fact, very few indeed.

But what does the Bible say, again? In the beginning, there was the Word.