News / Poland to officially demand $1.32 trillion WW2 reparations from Germany [457]


PiS must be a long-running KGB/FSB operation. There's no other explanation that would make quite as much sense. Really, these guys are an amazing gift to Russian foreign policy.

After the start of the war, when Poland and Hungary began to diverge over the question of sanctions and refugees, I started getting worried. I thought, "sh!t... Poland may be adopting a more mainstream position, which may potentially leave the Hungarians as the only wrecking ball inside the EU, that we can rely on for our games of divide and conquer." Thankfully, my fears were misplaced. Poland was simply taking a time out, and is now back to reclaim its leading role as a time bomb under the EU.

Bravo!

Genealogy / Looking on information on the name Hreben. [12]


Okay... Was it at least gratifying to know the correct location of the village?


Very happy for you.

Genealogy / Looking on information on the name Hreben. [12]


I Googled the term "Hreben surname" in Russian («Гребень фамилия»), and the results were pretty unanimous in stating that this is a Jewish surname, indicating an origin in the person's profession - that of a barber. In Russian, just as in other Slavic languages, the word гребень (greben', hreben, etc) means comb. It could also mean the fleshy red thing on top of a rooster's head, or the crest of a wave or mountain, but that surely is not the relevant definition here. It seems it would be unusual for a Pole, Ukrainian, Belarusian, Czech, Slovak, or Russian to have such a surname.

The town, Signevichi (Сигневичи), is located in modern Belarus, in the Brest Oblast. At the time of your ancestor's emigration, however, it still lay within Poland. In 2019, it had a population of 245 people, down from 500+ in the 19th century. Hope this helps.

Wikipedia article for Signevichi in Russian (use Google Translate):
ru.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%A1%D0%B8%D0%B3%D0%BD%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B8%D1%87%D0%B8

Life / Why Polish singers are not popular abroad? [95]

@Alien

Okudzhava is beyond reproach, I meant exclusively female pop singers, since I assumed that this is what it was about. Plenty of good Russian music in other genres.

Life / Why Polish singers are not popular abroad? [95]


You have not heard Russian pop stars. Polish singers will seem like Whitney Houston in comparison.

Feedback / I love this forum - It's so Polish: tolerant, inconsistent, amusing [252]


Amen brother!

News / Will Poland be badly hit by Recession ? I don't think so. [70]


Interesting.

I'm assuming that a typical restaurant's gross margin is ~70%. Also, from past cases brought to me, know that in general full service restaurants end up at somewhere below 10% in terms of the net margin after all is said and done (a little higher for fast food, maybe 15-20%). If my 10% assumption is correct, and we both know that inflation in Poland is already running @ with 15% - I also would have been increasing prices. Probably like the guys you mentioned that are increasing prices beyond the rate of inflation. But I suppose that's why I'm not in the restaurant business and you are.

I believe you, that they are being punished for the overly aggressive price hike by patrons, but do you think they are actually net losers? Perhaps it's more of a wash - dollar sales up, volumes down, but overall they're doing just about as good as they were in the past?

Thanks for your reply.

News / Will Poland be badly hit by Recession ? I don't think so. [70]


I know we don't like each other particularly much, but would appreciate if you answered some questions.

1) Are incoming Ukrainians helping to offset labor costs for hospitality businesses? The steak restaurant example you cited - was he keeping all of his pre-war staff on payroll despite seeing only 10% of expected business month in, month out?

2) How much is inflation affecting your recipe ingredient costs? Did you have to update your menu prices during this period? If so, how many times?

3) What's happening with rents for commercial RE? Top end, like Rynek, and lower end?

4) I understand your business is more reliant on foreigners, but have you seen any noticeable drop off of Poles dining out?

5) Do you expect inflation to slow down next year?


I don't know - maybe because unless they are in the east near our humanitarian corridors, there is really no easy way for them to reach Russia. I guess the shortest route would be to travel to Poland, then fly to Istanbul, and from there to Russia. That involves money, which I expect is precious for them at the moment.

News / Will Poland be badly hit by Recession ? I don't think so. [70]


I didn't even mean this in my typical sense of "Ukrainians don't exist". I meant that there are many ethnic Russians and Russian-speakers amongst the flow of refugees. The majority are Ukrainian, yes.


I was following up on PAK's post. I said so. I even explained how the security anxieties and refugee anxieties were both surprising to me, because I imagined a different mechanism for the tourism drop.


It's a fact, and I don't think CNN is a Russian propaganda outlet. If anything, it's a propaganda outlet for your camp.

News / Will Poland be badly hit by Recession ? I don't think so. [70]


Maybe you are confusing me with someone. If you read through past posts in other threads, you will see that I do actually have a sinister motive, and that is that Poles will become closer to understanding Russians through housing so many ethnic Russian or Russian-speaking refugees in their homes. I don't hate my own people, and if some of them choose to go to Poland to hide from the war instead of Russia, why should I wish them misery?

I am intelligent enough to understand that the vast, vast majority of refugees have nothing to do with the origins of the war. Also, the less women and children there are in Ukraine, the easier it is for us to do the job.

Again, I am grateful to Poland. Furthermore, I don't think refugees have a big impact on the economic difficulties of Poland currently (compared to, for example, energy issues related to gas and coal). Perhaps refugees are number 10 on list of reasons for economic trouble. I can't exploit, what I don't believe in.

If Poland exhibited a two-faced attitude towards the war by supplying weapons but not accepting refugees - you would see a lot more toxic sh!t flowing out of this Russian

News / Will Poland be badly hit by Recession ? I don't think so. [70]


I really am not. I said - people are idiots. If they think it is bad to be having fun around refugees (first, how would a hypothetical Englishman even tell Poles and Ukrainians apart, in order to realize he is mingling amongst refugees?), then why do they also not think that by cancelling their plans they are hurting both Poles and refugees?

I'm not Velund, and I don't dislike Poles. You actually helped me in this regard. I can respect your approach that you hate so-called RuSSists but can at the same time show solidarity with normal Russians (like in the thread about people drowning). I don't agree with you, but I understand it's no different than me liking Ukrainians in general and at the same time hating Banderists.

I don't live in Poland, but I am very curious about it. I can show the Russian perspective in the Ukraine War thread, and I can help with Polish economics - so that is what I do. Sometimes I can help on genealogical questions, if it is relevant to Russia or Ukraine. I wish I could participate in other threads, like the photo riddle threads - but again I do not live in Poland.


Nothing I wrote above is "exploiting refugees". I wrote about coal prices, recession fears, central bank incompetence, and finally the tourism drop (and said people are idiots for their misplaced anxiety about refugees), but only in response to PAK's interesting post. You will not believe me, but I am grateful to Poland for accepting the refugees in such numbers and with such warmth.

News / Will Poland be badly hit by Recession ? I don't think so. [70]


Not sure if this is what you meant, but I believe it's clear that it is not a post-Covid slump that is affecting tourism to Poland. What is happening is a direct result of the war in Ukraine, and it is not unique to Poland - with all of Eastern Europe being affected. Of course, it's completely irrational to fear for one's safety in Poland, but that seems to be the calculus of potential tourists.

A good CNN article with lots of numbers and some good quotable pieces:

cnn.com/travel/article/ukraine-invasion-tourism-eastern-europe/index.html

According to the article, it's not just a question of safety, but also a fear that it's morally wrong to have fun while refugees are flowing in. Quote:

"People are saying they don't want to go somewhere and be seen to be having fun in a place where they perceive there to be a lot of refugees.

"Someone lost their home and you're there in matching t-shirts, drinking beer -- there's a juxtaposition that doesn't sit right."

My initial personal assumption regarding why tourist numbers were depressed, was that it was because of a reduction in disposable income due to higher energy bills, making many people postpone travel until better times. But reading this article I realized I was wrong, and it's really war-based concerns that are driving the decline. The most important indicator arguing against my POV, is that many people actually CANCELLED their trips (so they were already paid for). Quote:

At the end of March, Poland's deputy minister for sport and tourism, Andrzej Gut-Mostowy, told media that cancelations from foreign visitors were up between 30% and 40%.

In January, Jacek Legendziewicz was hoping 2022 would be the year his Krakow-based hospitality company, Jordan Group, recovered from the pandemic. But then came the invasion -- and they lost 80% of group bookings in three days.

Those numbers are crazy. I sympathize with the feeling that this is not fair, since the war is happening in another country and Poland is absolutely safe. People are idiots.

News / Will Poland be badly hit by Recession ? I don't think so. [70]


Mhmm. Two days ago, already: politico.eu/article/poland-central-bank-adam-glapinski-germany-design-poland-territory/

Here's a quote for people that want a sense of the article, or have not read the original interview in Gazeta Polska:

"Poland is heading toward a recession, its currency is losing value and inflation is among the highest in the EU, but the head of the country's central bank has other concerns.

The danger for Poland lurks in Berlin and Brussels, Adam Glapiński warned in an interview with the right-wing Gazeta Polska published Wednesday."

This fellow sounds a lot like Turkey's central bank head, who does whatever that madman Erdogan orders him to do. No central bank independence whatsoever in Turkey, and it seems that in Poland's case it's the same - where Adam Glapiński is a political hack in the pocket of PiS leadership and not a neutral technocrat (as should be in any normal place).

There (in Turkey) they are promoting an extremely unorthodox monetary policy, according to which higher interest rates spur higher inflation (any student of economics know this is the opposite of how it works). Defying the laws of economics has a price: Turkey has a forecasted inflation rate of 80% for this year, and the lira is now at 18 to a $ (it was at 2 in 2014). So if Poles ever feel bad about the economic situation, they can make themselves feel better by reminding themselves that at least it's never going to be as bad as in Turkey.

News / Will Poland be badly hit by Recession ? I don't think so. [70]

@Alien

The practical definition of a recession is two back-to-back quarters of GDP declines. So there isn't a recession, yet, but if Q3 produces another decline we will be in official recession territory.

Through the reports I've read, there is a near consensus amongst analysts that Q3 will be even worse than Q2.

Good news is that recessions typically have a depressing effect on inflation, through lower demand and lower economic activity. Price growth should slowly cool down as the economy moves through a recession. However, there are examples of anomalous situations when you have both a recession and persistent high inflation. This does monstrous damage to economies. We will have to wait and see what happens in Poland's case.

News / Will Poland be badly hit by Recession ? I don't think so. [70]

According to Eurostat, Poland is the EU's worst performing economy this quarter. Somebody should tell Adam Glapiński that he should start focusing more on the economy and less on Tusk's plan to overthrow the PiS government.

Link: ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/14675418/2-17082022-AP-EN.pdf/e2a24cfe-ee79-d042-0a17-be6a117fba1a?t=1660721345061

Look at page 3 👆

News / Will Poland be badly hit by Recession ? I don't think so. [70]

From the Financial Times:

The region's largest economy, Poland, surprised analysts by contracting in the second quarter, falling by 2.3 per cent, according to preliminary data from its statistics office.

"We see it as a first step into recession," said Katarzyna Rzentarzewska, chief analyst for central and eastern Europe at Erste Group. "The economic growth in Poland is a massive surprise to the downside . . . [it] wiped out expansion from the beginning of the year."

Surprise to some... logical to others. Still, this is quite the swing, from rather strong growth in the last two quarters of 2021 and the first quarter of 2022, to a full blown recession in Q2. Even I would not have expected such a rapid pace of deceleration. Remember this post, since it may mark the point when Poland's rapid economic growth hit a wall.

Consumer confidence is at its lowest levels since the first weeks of the pandemic. Remember - this is when we all sat and home for days on end, and waited for death to come - that's how jolly Polish consumers are feeling at the moment.

Inflation is at a 25-year record high of 15.6%.

The Central Bank, in its efforts to rein in inflation, has raised the key interest rate to 6.5%. This is up from pretty much zero at the end of last year. This will absolutely hammer businesses reliant on raising debt, and people planning to buy a house or car. Despite this, the CB is warning that further rate hikes may be necessary, since inflation is still not responding and continuing to grow.

The prognosis for the rest of the year and the first half of next year is deepening pain. There is now almost a 100% probability of the Polish economy contracting year-on-year.

Let's look at what is happening in Hungary, who's government was not so keen on virtue signaling on the subject of energy sanctions. Hungary's annual growth slowed from 8 per cent in the first quarter to 6.5 per cent, while quarterly growth halved to 1 per cent in the three months to June, the statistics office said. Remember - Hungary has still not received a single Euro of help from the EU post-pandemic recovery fund, but is expected to come to an eventual agreement with Brussels. If this money comes, Hungarian economic growth will likely pick up substantially. Bottom line: Poland is entering a recession, and Hungary is growing at rates that would still be the envy of most any country in the world.

In other news - the IMF keeps revising its forecast for how much the Russian economy will contract this year. From its initial estimate of -15% in March, it has now revised it down (in several steps) to just -6%, while the Russian Central Bank is forecasting -4%. It will be very funny if Poland's recession ends up being deeper than Russia's this year, which has thousands of sanctions applied against it.

History / Communist memorials in Poland [50]


I have thing for Popes, and he is the only Polish Pope.

History / Communist memorials in Poland [50]

@pawian

Ah, my favorite Pole after John Paul II.

News / Tragedy in Russia - shouldn`t Poland declare national mourning? [41]


Wooooooow. I could not even imagine, that a baboon could utter such words. Hmm. Again you confuse and disbalance me. Are you sure it is not you that is an intelligence agent?

Seriously, you are a good guy. Thanks for bringing this thread up.

Travel / Is Poland a popular tourist destination for Swedes? [20]

Statistics indicate that Scandinavians drink less on average than both Poles and Brits.

PS - no surprise seeing Latvians and Lithuanians up in the tops, miserable assh0les...

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Off-Topic / Best posters [875]


Indeed.

It is a combination of two English responses to a question with an obvious answer. That is, it's a combination of "Does the bear **** in the woods?" and "Is the Pope Catholic?".

Off-Topic / Best posters [875]

Does the Pope sh!t in the woods?

Off-Topic / Best posters [875]

It is time for an updated Top 5 list:

1) Still Crow - a favored son of Svetovid
2) Cargo Pants - first pig to master human language
3) Johnny Reb - world class detective, sage-like day trader, and just a good Christian
4) PolAmKrakow - titan of business, and also a very good shot with sniper rifle
5) Pawian - he is the king of baboons

Law / Why is Poland importing so much coal? [76]


This is not true. I am - if I was a Polish citizen - a neutral party.

Law / Why is Poland importing so much coal? [76]


... and here we are - back where we started.

Perhaps, you have a solution which is practicable for Poland to solve its shortage of coal ahead of this winter, that does not include the "past tense" and spreading blame upon your political opponents?

Law / Why is Poland importing so much coal? [76]

@pawian

Was it not you, that several months ago was agitating to cut all trade links with Russia? Now you are saying that Poland should have continued trading with orcs up to the point that it's needs were covered through this winter? What happened to sleeping in your fur coat as long as it meant Russia would be cut from access to hard currency?

News / Ruling PiS party tried to cover up eco disaster in Odra River [88]

As a lifelong amateur fisherman (I just came back a few hours ago from a day trip fishing), it is absolutely depressing to look at that dead catfish.

We have regular issues like this in Russia, and even had a paper and pulp mill located on Lake Baikal (25% of world's freshwater reserves in just this one lake) that dumped toxic chemicals into the lake for 50 years until it was finally shutdown in 2013. You folks might not like Putin, but he's the first Russian leader in forever to take environmental issues seriously. Perhaps it's because he's also an avid fisherman.

Fisherman for President!

Law / Why is Poland importing so much coal? [76]


I see. Apologies for causing confusion, and yes you are correct - that's what I meant.

Before anybody else accuses me of providing a too simplistic explanation of the causes for the Industrial Revolution - allow me to say that coal is just one factor, but a very important one. Of course, Britain's legal system, the high literacy rates, it's expansive overseas holdings, and the fact that the most important inventions were discovered there are all very important factors too. However, in many ways they are also tied to coal. For example, James Watt's steam engine, was invented as a solution to the problem of pumping water out of coal mines - before it began to be applied to other uses.

Stick to the subject of the thread please, i.e. Poland

Law / Why is Poland importing so much coal? [76]

@pawian

I don't know how this chart disproves what I said.

It shows a rebound in wood coverage at the turn of the century, by which point coal would have completely phased out wood as a source of energy and heat. Also, you can see the rate of decline in wood coverage was reduced in the period lasting from 1300 to 1700, which is when coal exploitation began to rise in Britain. It picked up again afterwards, but this is due to an explosion in the population of Britain.

Quote from Wiki:

Coal production increased dramatically in the 19th century as the Industrial Revolution gathered pace, as a fuel for steam engines such as the Newcomen engine, and later, the Watt steam engine. To produce firewood in the 1860s equivalent in energy terms to domestic consumption of coal would have required 25 million acres (100,000 km2) of land per year, nearly the entire farmland area of England (26 million acres (105,000 km2))

Finally, my point was why the Industrial Revolution happened in Britain and not elsewhere. Pointing out that there were almost no forests left by the time it was in full swing is completely besides the point. Industrial, or rather proto-industrial extraction of coal in Britain began precisely in the 13th century - when sea coal began to run out, and people started following the seams inland. This happened in Britain several centuries before it happened in the rest of Europe, which again, is why Britain was well positioned for the Industrial Revolution to happen there.


Yes. They would be flooded, unless active (expensive) measures were taken to place them on "conservation". Restarting flooded mines is near impossible, and much more expensive and much less safe than digging new ones.

Law / Why is Poland importing so much coal? [76]

@pawian

Left outside the discussion, is that if everyone adopted your methods - soon there would be no forests at all. I'm assuming you're not burning trees from your land, but from someone else's - otherwise your orchard would look like the Gobi Desert.

I'm an economic historian by training. A classic explanation of why the industrial revolution happened in Britain first, is that they burned all their trees (believe it or not, at one point Britain was covered in forests), and consequently were forced to make an early transition to coal (with which they were blessed). The higher caloric output of coal, it's ready availability, and the fact that Britain was the first to develop its deposits at a truly industrial scale (again, because they were forced) fueled the Industrial Revolution - spurring developments in metallurgy, scaling of manufacturing, and provision of heat. However, Britain lost its forests forever.

In brief - your approach is absolutely not sustainable.