How might Britain`s withdrawal from EU affect Poles there and here?

To be exact: Brits, Irish and Commonwealth citizens who live in the UK, along with Brits who have lived abroad for less than 15 years, are eligible to vote.

I don't think that when Britain escapes the EU it will affect the Polish community very much. Jobs need doing. Business as usual. English women like Polish boys. Men. Males. (Whatever!) English lads like Polish gals. Polish ladies like English Gentleman. (Get the subtle difference?) (Come on, pick it up!) I don't see a problem.

(Serious!)

Try doing any of that from 1000km away.

And how is Britain going to do that? Because a skewed poll in the Independent newspaper says so?

Doug
I hate to break it to you, but a large number of people are hell bent on leaving and will vote. However, the Remainers cannoot be bothered to do so.

Half the undecided will make the choice in the Poll booth. Its impossible to know what will happen.

have you heard, we are to have a referendum in about 2 weeks?!

All perfectly true. It would be a disaster of titanic proportions. For Europe as a whole. I am not a conspiracy theorist but the British establishment will never allow Brexit to happen. The 18-30s will come away from the sea, sangria and sex and vote for Remain -

and the UK will stay in OUR Europe.
Otherwise I might shoot the dog and top mysen.

Dont blame your dog for the behaviour of some crazy idiots.

There will always be individual cases where people are going to be worse off, but the UK as a whole has more to gain from leaving the UK. Rather, it can better distribute the resources that it allocates to the EU, theres no question. No trade will actually be gained or lost. The world is too connected, to interdependant to allow for lost trade. Theres no reason the cannot participate in make of the projects currently undertaken by the EU, but it would be taken on a case by case basis. Being on the periphery of the European integration theme and not being part of the euro, it makes sense for the UK, but the benefits wouldnt be obvious for the likes of France or Holland for example.

Poles there and here anyway aren`t satisfied neither with Britain, neither with EU. Britain`s withdrawal from EU would only strengthen Polish determination to care for their own Polish interests, while there still is anything Polish.

The thing is, for the UK the EU just doesn't offer very much in return for the annoyance of know-nothing technocrats regulating everything to death and carrying Mama Merkel's milk whenever she goes off her meds and makes a rash horrible decision.

Poland still has more to gain (subsidies, unemployment tension release valve) from membership and or crazy government policies so enthusiasm is still high.

Whatever sense the EU made at some point has run out. It is an overbloated and vastly incompetent body that has reached the point where its interventions usually do more harm than good.

It's kind of a shame, but really pull the plug already. I'm not an EU hater; in its day it did more to alleviate poverty than any other international organization in history but... its day is over and something else is needed now (and the EU is not capable of producing that).

You are, apparently like a lot of the British, living in a fantasy world. The World will stay connected, but the UK won't be connected to it. That is the point of the Referendum.

Britsh companies (well obviously excluding Scotland which will stay) will lose the ability to sell in the EU.

The EU will decide on a case by case what THEY will allow to be exported into the EU. The finance industry. 12% of the UK GDP will be F***ed as it will have to move on mass to continue to do business. The UK services industries will also be screwed

There is also the issue of international companies using the UK as their European headquarters, from being an stable EU nation it is now a politically unstable local market. They will move.

Don't think the EU is going to allow the UK to dictate trade terms. Germany and France will take over the Finance industry. Tarrifs will destroy the UK's exports. The export service industry will be devastated.

What will this mean for the UK? Poorer, much poorer. More taxes, less welfare state and more strikes.

Its going to be like 1973 again.


Except, maybe 25% of its GDP from being able to sell into the single market and having the worlds business headquartered in the UK.

So.... it will be exiled to the bitter pale where pariah nations like Norway and Switzerland reside? Unable to trade with the EU? Attracting no capital?

The countries most fearing Brexit are Ireland, Luxembourg and the Netherlands, all tax havens for the rich.

The UK may not be offered EEA membership and will certainly not be given Switzerland's status which was a one off mistake that the EU regrets.

However, if we do join the EEA for access to the single market, I can't understand the logic,

- Let's leave the EU so we don't have to pay, can control our borders and have control of our laws.
- The join the EEA, pay MORE to the EU, lose control of our borders and keep all other EU laws except Agriculture and Fisheries.
- Oh and have absolutely no say in the EU laws we would have to implement (like Norway).

The reality is that the most likely outcome - EEA membership will mean

- Pay MORE money to EU,
- Lose all the special treatment we negotiated
- Have zero say or influence on EU laws that will have to be rubberstamped by British Parliament

For that we are going to thrash our economy for the next few years?


Huh? Ireland will gain massively as UK based companies relocate.

Luxembourg and Germany will welcome banks with hundreds of billions of Euros, Dollars and Yuan that will exit the UK.

Poland has most to lose being the biggest EU recipient of funds (100billion pln per year), unless the UK joins the EEA and pays even more money.

EU runs a surplus with the UK and exports to the EU from the UK are falling year by year (the fact that the UK export industries are uncompetitive is a seperate issue, but the bulk of the economy is driven by services of which the vast majority is domestically driven). Running a surplus means essentially the EU sells more to the UK than the UK sells to the EU. If both sides slap on tariffs (which they wont) the EU loses out.

Peterweg I was fine reading your argument until I reached the comment about France taking over the finance industry. You have just been outed as a lunatic. I will no longer be able to read anything you say and take it seriously.

I doubt it, we are a clearing house for the Yuan.

We are the biggest tax haven in the world.

Do you honestly think a bank will relocate to a place where tariffs will be placed on bonuses and profits, unlike the UK where the political class managed to avoid any EU tariffs.

Yes let's relocate to Germany !.

Poland does have the most to lose. When the Eastern Bloc joined the EU, funding from other places was diverted to them.

They have had a good run.

Money talks I am afraid, that's what TTIP s about.

As for the EEA and trading with Europe. Do you honestly think companies will allow Merkel and Claude to ruin their exports profits, some up to 60%.

Irelands double tax arrangement has ended and, by 2020 all companies need to find an alternative destination, Poland maybe ?.

>>clearing house for the Yuan.

Outside the EU? whats the point?


Uk has quite strict bonus rules. It avoids applying EU rules by agreement, once out of the EU all that is out the window. The European business will have to goto the EU and their Tolbin taxes etc.


That business will (probably) move to the EU. They again we can attract more with lax laws, but the EU/USA would sanction us unless we towed the line.


Some German Minister said out will be out and no option of the EEA.

They managed it with sanctions against Russia, that was a hugh finacial loss for Germany, they did it becuase they had to. You forget with the crashing UK market it won't be so important for German exports. Most of the top end cars go to high paid finance and services who will be relocating out of the UK.

The EU will take what it wants and block what Britain wants to export. The City of London has been Germany and Frances target for decades, far more valuable than exporting cars.

All this assuming that no country veto's UK's EEA entry, a few million of Putin's dollar's in a Prime Ministers pocket would wipe out the UK application. I'm sure a few countries would veto the UK for free.

I agree. I hope the UK withdraws, and the Germany's Fourth Reich will finally start to come to an end.

This is where you lose me. You refer to a country having what seems to be a mutually beneficial relationship that it's happy with as a "mistake" to be regretted.

If the EU cannot deal with anything but full membership then it's not working.

We will see how your view changes when after Brexit, Deutsch Bank and it's derivatives of 63 trillion implods on itself. It's only because the ECB is printing and giving it free money that it hasn't happened sooner.

Typical of the banks, too big to fail, too big to jail.

No wonder they dont want us to leave !!

No, it won't be Brexit that causes EU disintegration, but the German Banks full of debt.

You apparently think members apply to join the EU on their terms. They don't. The EU tells applicants what they need to do and everyone gets the same entry conditions.

Allowing an agreement with the Swiss was a mistake by the EU and the EU will not do it again.


Then its tough luck to you.

A possible scenario (if the vote is to leave in this referendum, especially if it's close) is that (and remember that post-Brexit it would take at least two years to actually leave the EU) at the next general election which would be likely to be earlier than planned one or both of the main parties would include EU membership in their manifesto and that would of course supercede the 'Brexit referendum' nonsense which in any case isn't legally binding.

No more freedom, terrible, terrible freedom.


So they're not even pretending to negotiate? Just straight up in your face "Do what we tell you!" from the get go?

You are making a stronger case for Brexit than maybe you intend.


The most damaging (ulimately) for the EU would be for a "leave" victory that is then followed by another referendum or trickery like you describe. I can't imagine anything that would turn people away from the EU faster ore more strongly. It's already clear that the Brussels institutions are deeply, pathologically non-democratic, what better way to show it?

Hard to see a leave vote as a "victory" however either way it looks like it will be close and a lot can happen in the two years following this non-binding referendum - and yes, if a political party won an election (one would probably follow a leave vote) it is likely that their election manifesto will be treated - as it should be - as a mandate to act upon.

If you believe in democracy it would be hard to see any result that is respected as not being a victory. Democracy is on the retreat all over the world, every free and fair election is a precious victory.


So when the big parties agree on something the voters cannot have their voices heard?

One issue is that the referendum is non-binding - this was made clear right from day one. The General Election is the important one.


There are several political parties who are opposed to EU membership and people are free to vote for them or vote for other parties.

Sums up the strange way the Leavers think - the British Governement does something and its the EU's fault.


For you, obviously. Currently we have more influence that we will have if we join the EEA. The EU will send a fax and the UK will rubber stamp it without any influence at all. Fax machine democracy as the Norwegians call it.


Imagine, the vote is for Leave, Camaron refuses to leave, so the Carpet Biters call a vote of no confidence in the government. Labour support Cameron - Tory Civil war. Labour support Carpet Biters spliting Conservatives in two and we have a Labour government.. maybe Labour/SNP.

What a shambles.

Unfortunately, I don't think that this would happen with Corbyn and Momentum (fast becoming a party within a party) which is basically his supporters however yes, the Labour Party as a whole is pro-remain.


That is a real possibility however I suspect the Tories would get back in at the moment, though if the SNP and Labour get together (possible, since polls show that fewer people support Scottish independence than a couple of years ago) they would have a chance.

Boris is a problem - he cares more about Cameron stepping down before 2020 than he does about EU issues; for him the referendum is above all a publicity opportunity. If it actually does end up with a slim majority for leave, I suspect his star will shine a little less. Or maybe even the opposite :-(


Too right!

Boris is the singular most unsuitable person to run the country, according to his stream of ex wives/girlfriends/prostitutes.