AfD Party is growing ever more powerful throughout country

A very interesting article by Jarosław Lindenberg in the latest issue of "Do Rzeczy"...

dorzeczy.pl/kraj/758058/niemcy-nie-takie-straszne-mateusz-morawiecki-sie-myli.html

... the author argues that AfD's program is largely aligned with Poland's strategic interests, and that if AfD were to form a government in Germany in the future, we would gain a very strong ally in the fight against threats to our national sovereignty (namely, transforming the EU into a European superstate and uncontrolled mass migration). Lindenberg also writes that AfD has the highest proportion of Polish-speaking politicians among German parties and that during the PiS government it was the only German party in the European Parliament that systematically and publicly defended Poland against accusations of violating the rule of law. After Tusk became the PM, representatives of Alternative for Germany (the most well-known being Tomasz Froelich, a politician of Polish descent) repeatedly spoke out on Polish issues and accused the European Commission of applying double standards depending on who is in power in Poland.

If Poland moves right in the 2027 elections (I'd say there's about 95% chance of that happening), and AfD enters government in Germany, then it might mean the opening of a new and very interesting chapter in Polish-German relations.

It would probably be divine punishment. But for what?

Yes, indeed!


For the mental leftardation of the current "elites".

Political parties who seek sovereign interests and possibly form a closer alliance with its neighboring country would be divine punishment? Hmmm...peculiar.

The author really doesn't know anything about the AfD does he? Sadly the article is locked for me, but how does he reconcile the AfD's anti-NATO, anti-Ukraine pro-Russia and pro-NS positions with Poland's interests?

It sounds like he does. I have the article in pdf format and can send it to you.

I guess Tacitus has a point here!

As much as the AfD would righten some things gone seriously wrong inside Germany during the last decades, it could complicate our outside relationships...*looking at Poland*

AfD thinks a good understanding with Russia would be alot more beneficial for german security and economy than being part of the West is, no matter who rules in Moscow!

(Or at least alot in the AfD think that way today, that doesn't mean that once the AfD would be in power she hasn't to take a more realistic stance and correct these points!)

Nothing new; that is an old German strategy. The question is: what does a good understanding mean?

....well....keeping our mouth shut, no matter what Moscow does, springs to mind immediately....no sanctions....no boycotts.....maybe even military and high tech trades, etc.....the whole nine yard!

Yes, there is always this threat. That's why Poland can never become properly European (whatever that means in current conditions) because we are doomed to alliance with the USA. We are not Washington's Trojan Donkey - this is simply our survival strategy.

It is certainly within the realm of possibility. If certain conditions are met, Poland and Germany could establish a profound understanding. In this scenario, Germany would reap the benefits while Poland assumes the role of defending Europe from Russia. Since our economies are aligned, a strong German economy could lead to a thriving Polish economy as well.

Wouldn't that be the best for both of us!!!

But for that Poland definitely needs to change its medial tune...in Germany Poland sadly is seen mainly as "hater"....that Poles still dislike/hate Germans/Germany! Not as someone to build a close, trusting relationship with.

Thats the thing....even today Putin's Russia still tries to woo Germans, with possible future relations in mind, as curious as it sounds, its a fact!

... and it would to have to be a lot of conditions: the Central Transportation Hub, navigation on the Oder River, the expansion of the port in Świnoujście, even the exploitation of newly discovered oil deposits in the Baltic Sea - are all developments that certain circles in Germany do not approve of and even complain about. Add to this all the mental ecotardation of the EU: no combustion cars since 2035, the CO2 emissions trading system (ETS) that is stifling our economy, Fit for 55, the Green Deal, the Mercosur deal that can destroy our farming, the metan directives for mines, EU Taxonomy Regulation - limiting cheap gas, nuclear and coal energy... I could go on.

Sometimes it seems that any sort of common sense agreement with Berlin-Brussels is impossible.


German medial tune towards Poland is not all rosy either. Maybe AfD could change that... provided they don't get too cosy with Russia.

Blame your mass media for that.
Also, it doesn't matter; I don't have to like you to do business with you.
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You side needs to be ready to make a deal, not trying to tell Poland what to do and how.
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It doesn't surprise me at all.

Na ja....our mass medie are hardly to blame for the Kacinsky brothers, etc.

It's a fact...every nationalist proud-Pole-Party-Politician makes a career of being also anti-German....it seems as if one includes the other automatically....our mass media of course report on that, but they don't build that!


Not business, no.....but putting your security in someones hands? Sure!


Why not?

Russia suffered under Germans as much as Poland did....why are Russians willing to make good relations with Germany but Poland is unable/unwilling to?

It's easier for Russians - you are not seen as a threat to them. If Poland had the largest territory and the largest nuclear arsenal in the world, it would also be easier to be friendly with Germany for us.

As it is, your economic and political advantage are still seen as a threat. Not to mention that you commemorated everyone and their grandmother who suffered from the German hands in WW2, but Polish victims of the war still haven't been properly commemorated by Germany, 80 years after the war ended.

Also, German society is mostly modern and liberal whilst Poles are conservatives and more religious. Not many common platforms of understanding there.

Oh je

Russian and German interests align. Russia can lure Germany with a market for their products and offers cheap ores in return

The AfD is not only pro-Russian but also anti-Ukrainian. So if the AfD gets into power:

Germany stops all support for Ukraine =>Ukraine loses its' largest remaining supporter=>Ukraine collapses=>Millions of Ukrainian refugees would travel to Poland (and not allowed into Germany ofc)=>Poland has also now a long border from Kaliningrad to Lwiv with Russia and its' proxies.

How would that be in Poland's interest?

Never mind NATO that supporting Poland/Eastern Europe would become next to impossible without Germany as a logistical hub.

How would that be in Poland's interest... let's see...


Poland is in the state of demographic collapse; millions of white, Slavic Christians would be a blessing.


Poland's border with Ukraine is shorter than our border with Slovakia, so it wouldn't extend the border that much. Besides, neo-banderist Ukraine where Waffen-SS units and UPA genocide perpetrators are still celebrated as heroes is not necessarily a friendly country. The collapse of Ukraine, or more likely the creation of a smaller and weaker Ukraine, would not necessarily be bad for Poland.


As far as I know there have been some voices of criticism of NATO from AfD politicians but, as a national party, it has not adopted a formal policy of leaving NATO and I don't think they ever will (Russia is too unpredictable, as we have seen, for them to risk such move).

Yet Poland is already struggling with the refugees that have arrived so far from Ukraine.


Now add the border with Kaliningrad Oblast and Belarus. A pretty long border to protect.


Is the current status of Belarus good for Poland's security? Would Poland's geopolitical situation improve if Belarus was neutral instead of being a Russian satellite?

Nevermind that by subjugating Ukraine, Russia gain access to the most battle-hardened soldiers on the European continent, who have far more experience in fighting a modern war than any other army.


You do realize that they view Russia as an ally, not a threat, don't you?

No, we're not. We have record-low unemployment despite all the Ukrainians here.


The most battle-hardened soldiers are already dead after 3 years of the war of attrition. Every month they are replaced by new conscripts of ever declining quality.


Russia doesn't care how they view her. Without NATO protection Germany would be vulnerable. AfD wouldn't risk that.

The potatoe «King» tries his best to anger and provoke Poland on the border and force to a deal based on making Poland fear her (for what excactly?) yet experienced Potato «famine».

Belarus would gain a lot more from friendly relations with Poland trade, potentially buying food in times of crises to at least not starve in that backyard. But, it doesn't fit with his Soviet History so he does what he does instead.

Only trouble would be if Russia used Belarus as staging ground in to Poland or Lithuania. Yet Russian tacticians know that any disturbance near Baltic creates unnecessary disadvtanges for the Russians in Królewiec area.

That concern is largerly ignored, but it can easily grow to a hotbed of anti-Putin nest of opposition. If army get's too pissed off. It can ignore it falling more and more to the hands of the Russian opposition and use it as leverage against Putin.

That they need more «means» to be able to silence or control anything there etc

This is an illogical statement.

It is more correct to say that "a large proportion of the professional and career military" has been attritted.

Even with horrific casualty rates - some portion of personnel survive. Perhaps half or 3/4 - depending on the sector of the front and time of year.

There are several hundred thousand men, that have been fighting for 3 years.

Among the officer corps - maybe up to 90% are still alive. Captains, majors, lieutenant colonels, colonels, generals - we lost maybe a few dozen. Junior lieutenants and lieutenants are the ones that die.

Among the rank and file personnel not assigned to assaults - I think there may have been a turnover of 20-40% over the past three years. Still terrifying numbers, especially by NATO standards where a formation suffering 30% attrition is considered to no longer be battle capable.

In the assault formations, the attrition rate can reach 70-90%. If we are talking about convicts and other disposables - then closer to 90%.

These frontline units obviously differ amongst each other as well:

1) Artillery crews - 10-25% attrition (all causes)

2) Armor crews - 20-40% (all causes)

3) Logistics, signals, engineer - 10-30% (all causes)

4) Finally - the salt of the earth - motor riflemen: 25-45%. (all causes)

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Bottom line, even amongst the motor riflemen - I think the casualties over 3 years amount to a maximum of 45% at an aggregate, blended calculation.

Certainly - there have been units which have been completely wiped out. Some units have been wiped out twice-thrice over (e.g. 810th Naval Infantry Brigade). But that's still the exception.

You're right, it was a thought-shortcut.

Thanks for all the info - it's difficult to find reliable data in all the omnipresent propaganda.

The immorality of low intesity wars couldn't be more obvious.

In this respect, German blitzkriegs and American shock-and-awe invasions are humanitarian and models to follow.

As they say...If you want to inflict pain, do it quickly.

There is no data.

Russia made it a state secret after the first few months. Ukraine has kept it secret throughout.

There are articles in the Washington Post, which claimed that Western politicians had "a better idea of Russian losses than Ukrainian ones".

That is, Ukraine does not even share with Washington or Brussels the true extent of their losses.

What I provided was educated conjecture - no more. I think it's in the ballpark, but there's no way we'll know the true numbers for another 10-15 years.

Some future government will release the full details of the losses. In the USSR, we didn't know the true extent of losses in WW2 until the whole thing collapsed and the archives were unsealed. So... 45 years in that case.

Apparently though the Far-Right aka AfD is trying to soften her message while
not her policies!

See Alice Weidel and Tino Churwalla are getting desperate.

What about estimated anti-aircraft defense losses on both sides?

I'm asking for a friend.

I think very low.

Maybe 5% of nominal strength.

Tons of systems have been lost, but these guys usually know when they are about to be hit and vacate their stations.

This is for primary defenses, like S-300, Patriot, NASAMs, etc.

For the guys that ride in trucks and fire machine guns at Shaheds - I think the casualty rate is zero.

For the guys that operate Shilkas, Iris-Ts, Gepard's, etc - I think also 5% or so.

They have radars. They know when something is coming that they already failed to intercept.

They just walk to the nearest tree line and watch their equipment explode.

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Bottom line, no one suffers like infantry.

This is why I respect Yuri Butusov, the editor in chief of the Ukrainian nationalist website censor.net.ua

After three years of talking about, he finally enlisted - and enlisted as an infantryman.

He could have chosen anything else, but he decided to become an infantryman. Not even an officer.

Amazing. Hats off to him. Genuinely hope he is not killed.