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Poland's post-election political scene


delphiandomine 87 | 16,884    
7 Dec 2015  #121
The latest averaged support levels according to polsters: Milward Brown, Ibris and Estymator:

Any idea what's going on with the SLD recently? I haven't read a thing about them, and even friends involved with politics say that they've gone very very quiet.

It's a long way away, but I wonder if the 2019 election won't be some sort of PO/Nowoczesna vs PiS/Kukiz battleground with two large and formal coalitions, like in Croatian politics.
OP Polonius3 1,007 | 12,507    
8 Dec 2015  #122
PO/Nowoczesna vs PiS/Kukiz

Are you convinced PO and Kukiz will even survive the next election? Petru most likely will to become PiS' chief antagonist. Razem may be the SLD's replacement. PSL will probably not make it but Korwin may do.

Likewise haven't hear of the ZL or SLD, although I got a glimspe of their blonde bombshell (name escapes me at the mo) on one of the talking-head shows but I didn't follow it.

Actually Petru has done quite well for himself in a relatively short space of time. So did Palikot a few years back but lost it.
mafketis 16 | 6,286    
8 Dec 2015  #123
but Korwin may do.

I reckon he might could at that. What is this "write like a hillbilly day"?

I'm really not invested in the longterm survival of PO (I'm glad they were able to stop the madness of the first PiS government but no, as my dear grandmother would say they're as useless as t|ts on a boar hog. If it's Nowoczesna's turn then I'm fine with that, as I keep saying I'm fiscally more conservative, socially more liberal (realistically given the makeup of Polish society) and against further European integration (without dumping the baby out with the bath). If any Polish party is on board with that then I'm on board with them, if not I'll go with the lesser of various evils.

An interesting question is will this PiS government actively energize younger voters against them the way the first did? Unless they turn their attention to job creation and have some success my answer is no.
Borsukrates    
8 Dec 2015  #124
PO was a leader party like PiS. Donald Tusk was very careful to remove or discredit anyone with an ounce of charisma or vision. I'm not sure it can recover at all.
mafketis 16 | 6,286    
8 Dec 2015  #125
PO was a leader party like PiS

Almost all political parties in Poland are vehicles to power for a single leader, even ones that start off as more or less normal parties turn into that pretty quickly. SLD and PSL are the exceptions and they're not doing well.

Does anyone expect that Duda or Szydło will survive their first disagreement with JK or that would survive if they develop a base of power in the party?
OP Polonius3 1,007 | 12,507    
9 Dec 2015  #126
PiS government

Foreign Ministry rejects CNN report as one-sided. That's diplomats for you! It was actually a scathing attack on Poland's democratically elected government repeating the slander and lies cooked up by frustrated Platformers and off-the-wall Michnik-style haters.

"We listened to the arguments presented in the last program of 'GPS' on CNN and the article by J. Diehl in the Washington Post with astonishment and surprise," noted foreign ministry spokesperson Artur Dmochowski in an official statement.

"They represent a false and one-sided message on the situation in Poland that is not supported by facts," he argued.
The CNN report claimed that the recently-elected Law and Justice party had "embarked on a dizzyingly rapid power grab that has drawn comparisons with a coup d'etat."

The report also dwelt on Law and Justice's "anti-immigrant rhetoric", which CNN argues has "emboldened" nationalists. A clip showed an effigy of an Orthodox Jew being burnt by nationalists in Wrocław, south west Poland.

The Washington Post article created a similar picture, describing recent developments in Poland as "disturbing" and noting that the new Polish government "could deliver a wake-up call" to Americans.

Poland's foreign ministry has said it will "demand from both editors the opportunity to present the Polish position on these allegations." (nh/di)

thenews.pl/1/10/Artykul/231980,Polish-foreign-ministry-claims-CNN-coverage-onesided#sthash.JG6ONneK.dpuf

getting rid of the OFE funds

Shall we scroll back and look for your scathign attack on PO when shifty-eyed Tusk pulled his heist on OFE in broad daylight? Pot & kettle syndrome?!
Harry    
9 Dec 2015  #127
Does anyone expect that Duda or Szydło will survive their first disagreement with JK

Duda's illegal and unconstitutional actions show that he's just going to do whatever his boss tells him to do.
OP Polonius3 1,007 | 12,507    
9 Dec 2015  #128
Duda or Szydł

Are you a PiS member? If not, why worry about the internal relations of a party to which you do not belong. All parties have their internal issues and interactions which they arrange as they see fit. So where's the problem and what's it to you?!
mafketis 16 | 6,286    
9 Dec 2015  #129
why worry about the internal relations of a party to which you do not belong.

Because that affects the country I have chosen to call home.

Have you chosen to call Poland home? Why worry about what happens there?
OP Polonius3 1,007 | 12,507    
12 Dec 2015  #130
political parties in Poland

LATEST CBOS POLL:
PS 35
Nowoczesna 21
PO 15
Kukiz 8
delphiandomine 87 | 16,884    
12 Dec 2015  #131
Polonius, this might interest you - ewybory.eu

It also shows how the polls were performed and if any translation into seats was made.

I don't think polls are particularly worthwhile right now though - PiS/Kukiz have enough seats between them to make sure that PiS last 4 years in government regardless.
OP Polonius3 1,007 | 12,507    
13 Dec 2015  #132
ewybory.eu

Thanks. Very helpful. But I couldn't find where they translate the reusults into Sejm seats.
delphiandomine 87 | 16,884    
13 Dec 2015  #133
Looks like they only publish it if the polling agency gives the numbers.

Wonder why ZL hasn't decided to become a formal party, though?
OP Polonius3 1,007 | 12,507    
13 Dec 2015  #134
why ZL hasn't decide

Probably the Miller faction (with or without Miller) does nto wandt to shed its SLD logo and lose itself in the ZL coalition. More interesting sóis what Razem are doing. They could become the "court leftists" in a future Sejm.
jon357 65 | 13,618    
13 Dec 2015  #135
Wonder why ZL hasn't decided to become a formal party, though?

The parties that make it up have strong local bases and a variety of perspectives, hence still being a coalition
delphiandomine 87 | 16,884    
13 Dec 2015  #136
They could become the "court leftists" in a future Sejm.

Probably, although to be honest, I don't see much point in the SLD remaining an independent party now. Nowacka has become the 'face' of the Left in Poland, and the SLD don't seem to have enough of a electoral base anywhere - most of their centrist voters went to Nowoczesna, and the hard left went to Razem.

An interesting poll just published in Rzeczpospolita - but again, I don't place much value in these polls.


Grzegorz_ 52 | 6,181    
13 Dec 2015  #137
The thing with Swetru is that no one has attacked him yet. PiS hasn't done it so far as he is taking away support mainly from PO and PO hasn't done it so far as he's a political "project" of the same guys, originally designed to be a minor partner of PO.

Once the season for Swetru is opened, the guy will quickly lose most of whatever real support he really has. What is this ? A bankster and a group of no names. The amount of garbage that can be bring up against him is huge. Wprost has reported that the guy got almost a million of public money to publish his books... that's for a start. This guy is largely the essence of 3rd RP's pathologies.
OP Polonius3 1,007 | 12,507    
14 Dec 2015  #138
taking away support from PO

LATEST IBRIS POLL:

PiS 30
Petru 25
PO 15
ZL 7
PSL 6
KUKIZ & KORWIN 5

Looks as though multi-millionaire bankster Ryszard Petru will be replacing the Tusk/Kopacz clique as Poland's chief pro-oligarch lobbyist. But, like his predecessors, he too will couch his backroom connections with cleverly phrased pro-demcoracy rhetoric. Will the Polish people let themselves be duped again?
Harry    
14 Dec 2015  #139
Will the Polish people let themselves be duped again?

The amount of anger and the massive protests held round the country on Saturday show that the people of Poland are not going to be duped by a party which named itself Law and Justice but has shown itself to be opposed to the rule of law and the Polish constitution.
delphiandomine 87 | 16,884    
14 Dec 2015  #140
I think it's worth pointing out that in many of the protests, these were also people of the Solidarność generation that aren't afraid of PiS.
Harry    
14 Dec 2015  #141
people of the Solidarność generation that aren't afraid of PiS.

However, the reverse is most certainly not true (largely because most of PIS either wish that they could have been the active Solidarnosc crew or lost their privileged status as party members when communism came to an end).
delphiandomine 87 | 16,884    
14 Dec 2015  #142
It's very obvious from the aggression and smears in the right wing media that PiS are not happy at all with what happened on Saturday.
Harry    
14 Dec 2015  #143
PiS are not happy at all with what happened on Saturday.

Isn't it excellent?

Any news about what the plan for next weekend is?
G (undercover)    
14 Dec 2015  #144
Any news about what the plan for next weekend is?

Spearhead columns of German "peace-keeping" forces stepping in :)))))))
Harry    
14 Dec 2015  #145
columns of German "peace-keeping" forces

I'm pretty sure that action like that would be unconstitutional and illegal; but which German forces are going to support the party that believes in unconstitutional and illegal action? Germans (or at least the ones who know what PIS is) dislike PIS almost as much as PISites dislike Germans.

But, Delph, anybody, any news about what is being planned for this weekend?
G (undercover)    
14 Dec 2015  #146
If you call in jon, that could be...
smurf 39 | 1,994    
14 Dec 2015  #147
Isn't it excellent?

It is pretty excellent.
But y'know the fact remains that those that were too lazy to vote are to blame for this mess.
They really should be ashamed of themselves and never allow it to happen again.

I would support a law saying that every one must vote like in Australia. You can still spoil your vote and lodge a protest vote but you must at least turn up and be counted as having voted.

You could see from Jarek's speech last night that he's scared. He's completely outnumbered on this. And while he has the backing of his party and his army of ***** grannies, the numbers against him far outweigh that.
G (undercover)    
14 Dec 2015  #148
He's completely outnumbered on this.

Early elections then ?
delphiandomine 87 | 16,884    
14 Dec 2015  #149
But, Delph, anybody, any news about what is being planned for this weekend?

Latest information I have is that nothing is planned, but wait and see.

Y
And while he has the backing of his party and his army of ***** grannies, the numbers against him far outweigh that.

They're definitely scared. Duda has gone completely silent and is trying to avoid doing anything other than boring Presidential duties, Szydło was conspiciously absent yesterday and the polls are hammering Szydło's government. The voters have no faith in PiS already - it's an astonishing turnaround.
G (undercover)    
14 Dec 2015  #150
The voters have no faith in PiS already

Are you going to show me a single PiS voter that "have no faith in PiS already" ?



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