Poland Parliamentary elections 2015

yeah lets get on with it!
festering is not that good for an organism too much poison.

But Kaczyński feeds on it, anyway. Such a type.

so lets cut off his food supply if you are right blood we would get rid ourselves from Soviet parasites who call themselves elite and Kaczynski.

Good news for PiS fans. The party`s popularity increased by 2 points to 22%.
Still better news - Palikot`s Party dropped out of the ranking.

What about your blood pressure increased as well?

hahahaha not yet. It would increase if PiS reached 50% or more.

But that isn`t going to happen.

So my fav TV commercial about PiS victory will never come true.



Newest poll
PO 29%
PiS 23
SLD - 10
RP- 7
PSL - 6
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TNS Polish PO - 29 percent .; PiS - 23 percent . support
Tuesday, 22 January 2013 ( 11:55 )

If elections to the Sejm took place on Sunday , the most votes - 29 percent . obtained the PO ; the second would be named PiS with 23 percent support - according to the January survey, TNS Poland . Would come to the Sejm also: SLD and PSL RP.


Aah, I forgot you retained the right to vote thanks to your old Polish passport.
How unfair! You have been living in US for nearly 15 years now and you want to decide about Polish matters???


I knew your patriotism is a complete fake. :):):)

Possible scenarios for the 2015 elections:
1) Nothing changes; the PO-PSL coalition is repeated as the same groupings make it into the Sejm in roughly similar proportions;
2) A PiS-PSL coalition emerges after winning 45% of the vote.
3) A PO-SLD coalition emerges after winning 45% of the vote.
4) During the campaign, as a result of behind-the-scenes negotiations, the conservative wing of PO merges with PiS; they do not join PiS but form the PS (Partia Sprawiedliwości) which win 50% of the vote. Gowin is at its head and forms a non-coalition PS government; Kaczyński becomes honorary president for life;

5) A SLD-Palikot-PSL coalition emerges after winning 45% of the vote.
6) Impossible as it may seem, politicians belatedly come to their senses and realise too much time, effort and money has been spent on a futile Polish-Polish war and resurrect the original PO-PiS coalition planned in 2005.

7. Some other option?
Thoughts?

Most probable, although Palikot's lot will also be in there.


No chance: PSL would want DuckBoy's head as a condition for entering a PiS-led government but DuckBoy won't ever leave PiS.


Possible but unlikely. Only happening if there needs to be a government of national unity in order to keep PiS out (the one thing that all parties have in common is complete recognition of the need to keep the 'Teraz Kurwa My' crew well away from power) or to prevent another election being needed.


LOL! No chance.


Unlikely that they'd collectively win that share of the vote.


Not a chance now that DuckBoy has shown his true colours and many of his crew have too.

Harry


If you are referring to our great leader Jarosław Kaczyński, he wil under the right cirucmstances. He is not a megalomaniac but someone to whom service to hisi beloved Polish, Catholic homeland is paramount.

I believe everythign should be done to make sure PO is a closed chapter. Na wieki wieków. Amen.

It took years for Tusk to recover form the 2005 defeat. Billboards were proclaiming a President from Gdańsk (Tusk)and a PM form Kraków (Rokita) but they lost. The PO reacted by pouring an unprecedneted amount of vile, vicious scorn on the winners. Not even the ex-commies, who deserved all the scorn anybody poured on them, were so brutally reviled. Have you forgotten those details already? That was not decent political rivalry, it was vulgar, gutter-level, no-holds-barred slander and character assassination by Gang of Tusk.

He's neither 'great' nor a leader nor 'our' anything. To you he's a leader and to me he's a source of amusement.


In that case he must be a superb actor; oh, wait, we've seen him acting and he's rubbish at it too.


I see that you are lying yet again: PO won both the largest number of seats and the largest number of votes in the Voivodship elections of 2006.


Almost all of your specialities: all that's missing is lies, bitterness, hatred and envy.

That's the key. He hates being proved wrong and has an absolute lack of humility. He'll cling on until the bitter end unless he's forced out. As he was forced out of office.

I've left those for you to direct at Duckboy, Mr Maybach and the Smolenskist twats.

Unfortunately I overlooked Solidary Poland (Ziobro grouping). Over the next two years they may garner additional support and cross the 5% threshold. They would be a natural to join a Kaczyński-less Gowin-led Partia Sprawiedliwości (Justice Party --see point 4 of my previous post).

That is the most plausible outcome of 2015 elections in my opinion, I am afraid.

It means I won`t take part in casting a ballot at all. I am not going to vote so that ex-communists come to power.

And they could well get it. I have a hunch that Kaczyński will gently withdraw and become honorary president for life, a kind of senior statesmen status with consutlative input. In fact, that might lead to a grand cioalition: Gowin break-away faction of PO, PiS, PSL and Solidary Poland. Maybe also PJN is they meet th threshold.

If that happened, the PO; SLD and Palikot couild go and f*** themselves.


There are probably many more like you. The problem is no-one will know until after the voting. I doubt if the PO would make a campaign pledge to cosy up to the SLD. Once the results are in, voters are powerless to stop coalition building and it's the politicans that rule the day.

Your hunches when it comes to politics are utterly worthless.


It's not going to happen. PiS will never again form a government in Poland: deal with that fact.

He tried this before with Marcinkiewicz, only to come back when he thought the coast was clear.

Assuming that PiS and Gowin can find any common ground (unlikely, given Gowin's free market beliefs) - the head of Kaczynski would have to fall. For what it's worth, why do you think that people wouldn't stab Kaczynski in the back if it meant tasting power?


Except you forget that there is some very real animosity there. Ziobro would have far too many enemies from the PO camp, PJN are dead, etc etc.


If. It's not going to happen.

The only certainty right now is that Kaczynski will not be Prime Minister or have any influence whatsoever in the Government post 2015.

What seems quite credible right now is that PiS, after facing yet another disaster in 2015 (despite actually winning the most seats) make a behind the scenes deal to Tusk that can't be refused - they expel Macierewicz et al and accept a genuine power sharing deal that sees real power remain with PO for another 4 years - but in exchange for quite a few ministries. Tusk in return offers some concessions that fits the social agenda of PiS, meaning a win-win deal for most people.

Kaczynski then tries to join Solidarna Polska (themselves humiliated) - but that party is also decimated in the polls, leading Ziobro to join the new-PiS while Kaczynski leads a small minority of lunatics.

That is a process called "democracy". In Poland this means that after the elections the remainder 70% of the votes go to a sound coalition.

Voters vote for parties and not for coalitions.

" Kaczynski then tries to join Solidarna Polska"
Not going to happen: DuckBoy is simply never leaving PiS, he'll just let little groups spilt off one at a time; he's too popular with the core PiS support.

In politics, one should never say never. :):):):)


Yes, true. But if today Tusk openly accepts the coalition with SLD, the party which refused to pay tribute to the boy murdered by communist police in 1980s, then you can count me out of this voting game. I don`t intend to vote PO with a clear reason: I am not going to contribute to communists` comeback to power in Poland.

Shouldn't they vote for the best candidates -- not costly and wasteful bureacracies (parties) with fully , expensively equipped offices all over the country, company cars, paid staff, loads of documents, etc. etc.?

Maybe parties as we know tham are becoming obsolete.

Not in this century, I am afraid.

PiS now is 9 points ahead of PO in the latest Millward Brown survey. The pollsters found that 26 percent of respondents said they would vote for the centre-right Civic Platform, down six points from last month, while PiS, led by conservative former prime minister Jarosław Kaczyński is up four points to 35 percent.

thenews.pl/1/9/Artykul/140432,Poll-opposition-extends-lead-to-nine-percent

Yes! You can enjoy! :)

Tusk probably won`t call early elections so in 2015 PO results might be even 20% or lower. But it will be still too much for PiS to take power.

Only if we rule out such developments as the following, and in politics most everything is possible:

1) Gowin's breakway group set up their own party (let's call it the Polish Justice Party) which will get 12% of the votes in 2015. Added to PiS' 37% and Solidary Poland's (Ziobro) 6%) that produces a 55% coalition able to rule Poland for the next 8 years..

2) The Gowin brekaway group merge with PiS or enter PiS and Gowin becomes their new president. The new party (whatever it may be called) wins 44% of the votes and enters into a coalition with socially conservative PSL (8%).

Other parties will get 21% (PO) . SLD (15%) and Palikot (5%). PSL and SP do not cross the 5% threshold..

You really do have a crystal ball. You should play Lotto.
Or do you take your wishes for granted? More likely that option.
By the way, as far as I know, elections are held in Poland every four, not eight years.

The opinion poll shows what has been the truth since many years. 65-70% of the voters do not vote PIS.

Of course, this is only a projection suggesting that PiS or the PiS-PS (Partia Sprawiedliwości) coaltion or whatever it may be called will sweep away PO and at win least the next two elections -- 2015 and 2019. Maybe 2023 as well. People are pretty fed up with Tusk & Co. as polls for the past 2 months have consistently shown.

A pretty unlikely suggestion, considering their miserable past performance.

In line with your non-conservative mind-set, aren't you always saying 'things move ahead'?

70% of the electorate has not voted PIS since ages. They for sure all must be misguided.

Things change. The Fourth Republic will soon be back to finish the job it started in 2005 -- this time with a solid mandate.