Assuming that PiS wins the election (not unreasonable since the Polish electorate likes to regularly change the party in power) who the hell could they ever form a coalition with?
This is the thing that I keep repeating on this thread. They have a lack of coalition partners, particularly as all the poll results show any gain for PiS resulting in a loss for Solidarna Polska. The other parties aren't going to go into coalition with PiS after what happened last time, which means that PiS would be backed into a corner. If there needs to be a second election, then PiS (in line with history) would be punished for not managing to form a coalition - so they would want to avoid that at all costs.
The current electoral mathematics make it nearly impossible for PiS to win without a huge compromise on their part.
Kaczynski has basically accused the leaders of every other party of being criminals (or worse).
Indeed. This is why I can see a coup within PiS with Ziobro forcing out Kaczynski and a viable coalition being formed, perhaps with a social agenda (with the SLD, perhaps). Kaczynski has just too much history for anyone else to support him - and the smaller parties aren't going to risk their electoral credibility for the sake of 4 years of power.
The only way PiS could govern is by getting an absolute majority which I don't see happening.
It would have to be one of the most stunning victories in the history of democratic politics. The general consensus is that any party seeking an outright majority would need between 45-47% of the vote - which even the PO and SLD landslides failed to get anywhere near.
The
only way out for PiS right now is to use Kaczynski's charisma to win the election, then force him out in order to put together a viable coalition or at least a minority Government that can do deals on an issue-by-issue basis. The situation in Elbląg suggests that PiS as a party have no problems with doing deals with whoever can help them - but on a national level, Kaczynski has to be reckoned with.
For what it's worth, I think a PiS-SLD social democratic coalition would be popular with many voters. But Miller is no political novice, and PiS would certainly have to eliminate many of the old guard to get anywhere near an agreement...