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Posts by Atch  

Joined: 1 Apr 2015 / Female ♀
Warnings: 2 - OO
Last Post: 4 Jul 2020
Threads: 17
Posts: 3,224

Displayed posts: 3241 / page 1 of 109
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Atch   
4 Jul 2020
Travel / Poland in photo riddles - part 2 [209]

If you can remember which bits of Rszeszów you visited, you could go on google street view and see if you can locate it. That way you'd have the address and could possibly find out something about the building. Btw is that a crucifix on the roof??
Atch   
4 Jul 2020
Law / Putative Spouse Poland [7]

common law Spouse i

No, it's not the same thing, not as you described it anyway. You said:

a spouse who cohabits with another on the bonafide belief that he or she is lawfully married to the other person

That sounds like somebody delusional, 'believes' they're married. You're either married or you're not. As for common law spouse, that status can only exist in a country that has common law as part of its legal system. Poland doesn't. Also, a common law spouse in the handful of countries where that status is acknowledged has certain legal rights and entitlements if they're a citizen of that country but those rights are limited and they are not treated as a full, legal marriage partner. Anyway, as far as immigration in Poland is concerned, no you can't bring your girlfriend to Poland if she's not an EU or EEA citizen, as a family member or dependent.
Atch   
2 Jul 2020
News / Coronavirus in Poland [2652]

There is really no change between May and June except that the age of those dying is dropping.



Atch   
26 Jun 2020
News / Coronavirus in Poland [2652]

We can't stay in lockdown.forever.

No and I wouldn't advocate that either. I just think that people could behave a bit more thoughtfully at this time in terms of simple things like social distancing. Why sit practically on a stranger's lap in the tram if there are plenty of seats free? Why push your unmasked face into the fruit and veg in the supermarket? Learn to cough or sneeze into the crook of the elbow like we did during Swine Flu. Just basic things like that.

I don't disinfect my hands when I go into the shops though, unless they make an issue of it and I have to. I wash them before I leave the house but I think too much washing/disinfecting etc is unhealthy and will destroy your immunity to other things. It's not natural to disinfect your hands every ten minutes and if you go to a few shops that's what you can end up doing. The other day I was in a shopping centre and had to submit to having my hands forcibly disinfected by a young Pani Kommandant, -as I call officious females- at the door of one, then again going into Rossmann as the security man was watching. Don't agree with that.
Atch   
26 Jun 2020
News / Coronavirus in Poland [2652]

A corrupt organization

There are some decent individuals within it though and Mike Ryan is one of them.

It can't be stopped

Back in May Mike Ryan said that it may never go away.

"This virus just may become another endemic virus in our communities and this virus may never go away. HIV hasn't gone away. I'm not comparing the two diseases but I think it is important that we're realistic. I don't think anyone can predict when or if this disease will disappear."

And still economically active until 67 or 68 in some countries

Absolutely. They are also the backbone of many a volunteering group, not to mention taking on a large share of childcare duties for grandchildren. And what about the 'grey pound' and how it contributes to the economy.
Atch   
26 Jun 2020
News / Coronavirus in Poland [2652]

Absolutely. We'll never know the true fatality rate in any country, or globally, because we'll never know how many people have been infected. We'll also never know how many people have died but not been counted as a coronavirus death. Some experts suggest that the true rate of infection could be up to ten times the known number of cases, so that would mean a fatality rate of around 0.7% for Poland (and indeed for Ireland). Of course it would be much higher for certain age groups.

What I object to is the attitude of 'so what if a few old people die'. People over 65 are human beings too and some of them have families and friends whose lives they enrich, who love them and would quite like them to live for another ten or fifteen years. Many people of that age have only mild health issues such as slighly elevated blood pressure or angina which are under control and don't stop them leading a normal, active life. I don't find it acceptable that any nation gets comfortable with the idea of continuing to have ten or twenty premature deaths per day from a nasty contagion.
Atch   
25 Jun 2020
News / Coronavirus in Poland [2652]

Actually AFAICT the current fatality rate (of all infections) is about 4 % which is a bit high

You're using a flawed mathematical model there. You can only obtain an accurate fatality rate when you base it on cases which have had an outcome.

Closed cases: 20,066
Deaths: 1,412
So that's a fatality rate of 7%.
Atch   
25 Jun 2020
News / Coronavirus in Poland [2652]

The latest data from the WHO is that 80% of Covid-19 infections are mild or asymptomatic, 15% are severe infection, requiring oxygen and 5% are critical, requiring ventilation so I suppose you can extrapolate from that. I notice that Germany's stats have a critical rate of around 4% at the moment and their death rate stands at 5%. Poland never seems to have a serious/critical rate of more than 1% and the yet the death rate is 7%. Curiouser and curiouser............
Atch   
23 Jun 2020
News / Coronavirus in Poland [2652]

And nowhere is doing that.

Not publicly, but you can be sure they are because they need that data in order to find out to what extent the virus is transmitted by asymptomatic people.

(sixth day in a row with more cured than discovered infections)




Atch   
23 Jun 2020
News / Coronavirus in Poland [2652]

the more testing the more cases.

Ireland is carrying out more testing than Poland per capita, and the number of new cases has dropped to almost nothing, 59 new cases in the last week compared to Poland's 2,032. With the population of Poland being around eight times that of Ireland, a very crude comparison would suggest that Poland should have well under five hundred cases, if the infection rate is dropping as steeply as it has in Ireland. There is no getting away from the fact that Poland has failed to supress the virus.

@ Spike, the chart you posted doesn't relate to the study in Geneva. In any case, it's far too early to determine the exact fatality rate and it will vary according to demographics etc. We also don't have enough information yet about the long term damage to survivors.

All I do know for definite is that Ireland's annual deaths from flu is around 500 and we're already at 1,700+ deaths from coronavirus, so that's more than three times the rate for flu.

I have a feeling that you're very juvenile or have never experienced serious illness and death in your own immediate circle. Maybe you have but are desperately immature or have a personality disorder that prevents you from understanding the suffering this virus has caused in communities. Only a boy in his early teens trying to sound cool, would make inane comments about the 'corona comedy'.
Atch   
22 Jun 2020
News / Coronavirus in Poland [2652]

But don't they have more or less the same amount of cases

If you look at the graph for active cases you'll see how different the profile is for Ireland where the cases have steadily dropped whilst the rate of infection in Poland has been climbing steadily. Today Estonia has put Polish nationals on the quarantine list, restricting their entry along with Romanians and Bulgarians because of the rate of new infections in Poland.





Atch   
22 Jun 2020
News / Coronavirus in Poland [2652]

Nobody ever showed me a formula for this r number

There isn't one single formula. The number is determined by using different mathematical models.

This link shows some of the models used and the equations for them:
calculate.org.au/wp-content/uploads/sites/15/2018/10/spread-of-disease.pdf

In Ireland they determined the R0 number by calculating it via four different models and at a certain point found that they were all giving a similar answer. The R0 number can certainly be fairly accurate because since Ireland's R0 fell to an average of around 0.5 the number of deaths and hospital cases has dropped dramatically. In Poland, where the R0 hovers around just above 1.0 there is no significant drop in hospital cases or deaths. The disease seems to have stabilized at a certain number for the present but will get worse over the next couple of months.
Atch   
21 Jun 2020
Work / Hands-on agricultural jobs in Poland? [20]

@ Zlatko, you might enjoy this if you haven't seen it before, 1942 dance footage, 1967 music, Fred and Rita:

youtube.com/watch?v=8AXkfhqvO44
Atch   
21 Jun 2020
News / Tesco abandon Poland [66]

Lots of customers plus little space (compared to Auchan

Absolutely. Higher turnover of stock equals fresher perishable produce. Auchan is shocking really. Once, the potatoes had become so rotten and mouldy that you could smell them about five metres away!
Atch   
21 Jun 2020
News / Coronavirus in Poland [2652]

The purpose of a good quote is to interest the reader

No. The purpose of your quotes is to attempt to convince readers that your spurious arguments are supported by facts.

the response by governments everywhere has been feeble

Poland's has been woefully inadequate but there have been some fairly generous support packages offered in several countries.
Atch   
21 Jun 2020
News / Tesco abandon Poland [66]

Tesco & Biedronka are the crappiest stores.

Biedronka is not that bad. It depends on the branch. In my local Biedronka the quality and freshness of the fruit and veg is much better than my local Auchan. The fish in Biedronka is frequently fresher than Auchan. The meat is similar. It's very hard to get decent meat in Poland. Biedronka's bread is far superior to Auchan's. Biedronka also stocks many of the same brands as Auchan.

Biedronka is hopefully local-owned.

It's Portuguese.
Atch   
20 Jun 2020
News / Coronavirus in Poland [2652]

Stanford study

You forgot to quote this bit:

"The Stanford study, however, does not include the largest antibody study to date.......that would convert to an IFR of 1.1 per cent."

You also failed to mention that the article is over a month old since when many more results have been published. A more recent article quotes Timothy Russell, a mathematical epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine as saying "The studies I have any faith in are tending to converge around 0.5-1%,"
Atch   
18 Jun 2020
News / Coronavirus in Poland [2652]

I know that you don't consider the number of new cases to be important Maf, because of the rise being related to the increased testing, but I think it's worth noting that out of the 314 new cases, only 88 were in Silesia. That means the virus is still very active in other regions of Poland. Cant see how these figures will diminish any time soon. We will continue to see hundreds of new cases each day and more deaths.
Atch   
17 Jun 2020
News / Coronavirus in Poland [2652]

Your endless faith in government i

Only in some governments. I don't think much of the Frenchies :))
Atch   
17 Jun 2020
News / Coronavirus in Poland [2652]

Be a smart person

That's a rather foolish suggestion, seeing as I obviously already did what you say a smart person would do. Your post is a deliberate attempt to misrepresent facts. You open by referring to deaths in the England and Wales and then omit the first part of the sentence about the research which states:

"A recent study in the southern Île-de-France region suggests confinement itself has had catastrophic consequences. In long-term care facilities with excess Covid-19 deaths, researchers found" etc.

No doubt the care home crisis across Europe will be looked into in those countries most affected and we're likely to see the facts emerge, particularly from those countries such as the UK, with a strong tradition of accountability and transparency.
Atch   
17 Jun 2020
News / Coronavirus in Poland [2652]

"researchers found

Misleading people again?? The research refers to France, whilst your post suggests that you're talking about the UK.
Atch   
15 Jun 2020
Off-Topic / Random Chat Poland [1273]

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Atch   
15 Jun 2020
Off-Topic / Random Chat Poland [1273]

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Atch   
15 Jun 2020
Off-Topic / Random Chat Poland [1273]

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Atch   
15 Jun 2020
Off-Topic / Random Chat Poland [1273]

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Atch   
15 Jun 2020
News / Coronavirus in Poland [2652]

Does Ireland publicize hospitalization numbers?

Yes. Last night there were 74 people in hospital confirmed cases and 128 suspected cases, with 27 confirmed in intensive care and 9 suspected. They also publish the minutes of the meetings of the National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET).

if all hospitals are treating coronavirus patients then it might be awkward to collect....

They've been really efficient, I have to say. They even publish the numbers for each hospital. I suppose that's because the epidemic is being managed by a team of doctors including a special infectious diseases team and they micro-manage everything.
Atch   
14 Jun 2020
News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [1978]

Whats the plan for economic recovery? Whats the plan for foreign policy?

It was just the same years ago. That's Polish politics. I remember back in 2006/2007 watching so-called political programmes on Polish television. Nothing of importance to the welfare of the country or electorate was ever discussed. It was nothing but 'skandal' , lustracja and prokuratura, mud-slinging and finger pointing.