Real Estate / Residential real estate values go down in Poland [455]


Very negative, and honest article, but if google translator is doing its job, I undestand that the risk is 25% that there would be a drop by up to more than 30% (headline itself doesn't reconcile to the body if the translation is good 30% vs >30%)

Analysts admit PKO BP, however, that there is a risk that within two years, prices could fall by up to more than 30 percent.! The probability of this scenario - as a result of "relapse recession in the global economy" - is, however, "less than 25 percent.." Let us add that the trouble wpadłoby then many existing borrowers. Growth franc exchange rate has meant that now, even 150-200 thousand. of them have flat burdened with debt, which exceeds its value. These borrowers had lost their jobs, they could not save, sell house - obtained in this way, the money would not be sufficient to repay the loan. Changes in market prices real estate analysts, PKO BP monitor with particular attention, because almost every fifth dollar of all granted loans in our country mortgage from the bank. Bankers are concerned primarily large

Real Estate / Residential real estate values go down in Poland [455]


I wouldn't go so far as 'pick your number' - however they are getting a high selling price - however you will see their sales are slow (although this is compared to the days when things were sold before they were even built, which isn't normal in the rest of the world). I'm not sure exactly where you are thinking of, for example:

Grzybowska 4 - prices PLN 11,800 to PLN 30,000 - about 70 of 240 left for sale
Twarda/Metropolotin - will be interesting, selling from Feb 2012 - prices up to PLN 20,000
Zlote 44 - average price of PLN 30,000 - about 75 of 200+ sold I believe
Platinum towers - bit of a disaster, I think they converted 200 of the apartments into hotel rooms
Opera 2- no idea what they have sold, they don't even advertise, prices up to PLN 50,000/m2 - anyone know the sales success for this project?

I think the safest place in Mokotow, anywhere from the center up to Racławicka metro station.

Warsaw has some similarities to Toronto (in terms of the metro layout) - my understanding is that all the real estate along the metro demands high prices whereas the real estate not along the metro lines goes for significantly less.

Personally (for myself) I would never buy anything not on the metro lines. It costs more but the premium you will recover (of course it will also go down with the market) - reality is I rarely take the metro - but I like to be able to when I want/need to.

Real Estate / Banks in Poland selling fewer mortgages in 2011, down 49% [285]


Is it time to start the gold bubble thread?

forbes.com/sites/feeonlyplanner/2011/08/28/gold-bubble-or-not/

Final line: It is anybody's guess when gold will correct, but it is very likely that it will be ugly when it does.
Or should we sing the song of oil and silver and all the commodities.

End of the day trust people's addictions, I bought Philip Morris during the 2008 crisis and if we have another crash I'll double or triple my investment - even the freezing cold doesn't stop the smokers from smoking. Sure they have no problem renting - but somehow they always find the money to buy cigarettes.

I welcome all suggestions, what to do with $100,000 today (investing in any currency).

Real Estate / Banks in Poland selling fewer mortgages in 2011, down 49% [285]


You're right - but most of what is written in this thread is nonsense - so I don't try too hard :-)

Reality today most people with money don't really have safe options how to invest it - people without money are basically in trouble

I'm not sure how/if this will ever clean up - while we may not repeat what happened in Japan - it really is impossible knowing what to do - while I feel apartment prices will drop, I do feel better being diversified (owning property and multiple currency savings and shares)

Real Estate / Banks in Poland selling fewer mortgages in 2011, down 49% [285]


If the zloty does tank there could be positive consequences for housing:

-foreigners will be more hesitent to sell their apartments, preferring to wait (as the price of apartments fall and the amount translated into their home currency also falls due to exchange)

-Poland might start to look attractive for foreign investment again (as in EURO, USD, GBP or whaterever the apartments will get cheaper combined with the fall in zloty prices)

-Polish people working abroad could get more zloty for the Polish savings, making housing less expensive
-people with Swiss Franc or other currency loans will continue to pay their loans off (they can't sell as they wouldn't have enough to pay off the loan)

Therefore a fall of the zloty could offer some support for housing prices if we believe the foreigners and Polish working abroad have such a large influence - personally I think these factors don't have as much influence as some would want us to believe.

Life / Exam for Drivers License in Poland; English? [99]

Do you already have a licence and if so, from what country? If it is from the EU I believe it is a simple swap of your licence.

If it is another country there may have to be an agreement between the two countries (but I'm not sure)

I purchased the practice CD in English from the same place you take the written test (but I don't know the address/name - did it 3 years ago and I think it was only PLN 15)

When you do the actual test it will be the questions from the computer CD but they are printed.

Additionally you have to bring a sworn translator with you when you do the written test.

You will also have to have sworn translation of your current licence and forfeit your current licence when you get your Polish licence.

If you don't have a licence you'll have to take the road test too.

Lastly I understand they are to increase the number of possible questions from 400 to 1500 in the NEAR future - so right it now - it took me a while to learn the 400 questions (some questions are simple and some are strange/unusual)

Real Estate / Banks in Poland selling fewer mortgages in 2011, down 49% [285]


This is proof of nothing, no one wants to live in East Germany, there are hundreds of articles about this going back more than 10 years, one of many below. Location, location, location - ghost towns are cheap.

A shrinking population and the tendency for people to move into big cities in western Germany has emptied out thousands of homes in small towns in the eastern region. - thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/article2627341.ece

Real Estate / Banks in Poland selling fewer mortgages in 2011, down 49% [285]

Despite this construction news, it is still impossible to even build a piece of $%*& apartment and sell it at a profit if there was a severe fall in prices.

Poland had a construction boom with easy profits, that why Italian companies are building the metro, Greek companies are building roads, Chinese companies tried to build roads and German and Austrian companies are so large - this still is considered the land of construction opportunity. Severe competition puts the poorly managed construction companies into bankruptcy and cleans up the market. I don't expect we will see any of the big names thinking its strategically a good idea to leave Poland.


For the life of me I can't get the edit to work, my message should start:

Despite this construction news, it is.....

Real Estate / Banks in Poland selling fewer mortgages in 2011, down 49% [285]


In the market to sell a used apartment maybe ;-)

It is true that new apartments are being constructed more cheaply in order to meet the demand that couldn't afford the price levels; however the idea that the supply is growing because of this simply cannot be true. Supply is growing because of the reasons mentioned on the last 8 pages.

Real Estate / Banks in Poland selling fewer mortgages in 2011, down 49% [285]

Think about it, get the house in Moldova you dream about now...don't wait for the price increase in Moldova and have the same regrets you have in Poland now

Prices are going down, but get realistic, we're not going back to Poland 2000

Back in 2000 we had our pick hiring university graduates, now we have trouble finding suitable candidates because we are competing with so many other companies and graduates salary demands are high.

Real Estate / Banks in Poland selling fewer mortgages in 2011, down 49% [285]

wbj.pl/article-57009-is-now-the-time-to-invest-in-rentals.h tml?type=lim

Another nonsense article - suggesting a good time to buy an apartment to rent as well as other self-serving nonsense.

Mystery solved, Milky thinks we are going to the level of Moldavia, the lowest priced apartments in Europe - from today's paper:

Warsaw 19th in European apartment price ranking
The most expensive apartments in Europe are in Monaco, says a ranking prepared by
the Global Property Guide, where a square meter comes to zł.173,000. London and
Paris reported similar levels, with prices of zł.66,800 and zł.59,000 per square meter,
respectively. Warsaw ranked 19th on the list, with an average price of zł.15,000 per
square meter. The capital of Moldavia closed the ranking, with a per square meter price
of zł.4,500. The comparison was made on 120 square meter higher standard flats.
Prices were calculated from euro using a zł.4.40 exchange rate.
Puls Biznesu,, Nov 22, p 7, MCO


and before you attack me, I assume they mean Chisinau, the capital of Moldova - not Moldavia

Real Estate / Banks in Poland selling fewer mortgages in 2011, down 49% [285]

Is it just me, or is this thread all over the map?

Poland has been doing well, but all good things come to an end (or at least a slowdown).

If we are talking about apartments, I would have an issue with anyone who says there will not be some good deals in the future - but it will be rare anyone will sell in choice location apartments at severely discounted prices. For the average Pole it is clear waiting for a good opportunity and desparate sellers is the best stategy.

Currently Poland is still ok, there is still investment (welcome back Dominos Pizza and Toys R Us is on the way) - small examples I know. Railway, road and metro construction will continue for years. American company Blout is looking at Poland (as well as a few other countries); this could create a 1000 jobs. There are even plans to move some production from China to Poland (due to quality issues and high cost of transport and rising wages). These investments won't allow the majority of the employees to buy their dream apartments, but the more money circulating , the better for everyone.

When I think of my city in Canada (o the majority of countries in Europe) compared to Poland, I'm definately glad to be here from an economics point of view.

Real Estate / CZYNSZ - payment issue - help [43]


It would anger me if someone agreed to something and never kept their side.
My friend in Canada promised to pay me back $1,600 20 years ago and still hasn't.

Please don't make this a country thing - i had a landlord in Poland for 10 years and can not imagine anyone better/more honest.

When foreigners claim an issue results from 'Poland' they make all foreigners look bad.

If anyone is not happy here, please leave quickly.

Real Estate / Banks in Poland selling fewer mortgages in 2011, down 49% [285]


Could you ask your friend where he 'heard' this - if he did say this, I wouldn't trust much of what his says (unless this is an isolated error).

While I believe market driven property taxes will come one day, it will never be 10%.

In Canada we were paying 2% years ago on my house and it was considered very high.

What is more likely to happend in the near term is increases in perpetual usufruct fees, I've heard of fees being increased substantially recently on re-assessment (as they are based on a 1% of the fair value of the land for residential property and have often never been increased to reflect current market values).

Real Estate / Demand for apartments low in Poland's main cities [89]

Wroclaw

one strategy may be to keep the price the same but add sweeteners (free parking spot, finish the apartment, free kitchen) - effectively the prior buyers may be a 'little' less upset

Real Estate / Demand for apartments low in Poland's main cities [89]

While I agree you aren't going to make any money on Polish real estate, 48,000 empty new flats may not be that many in a country that actual has a need for new flats.

Spain has a similar population, less need, and over 700,000 new flats empty and signficantly more new & used flats sitting empty.

Additionally, at least part of the reason for the fall in prices is developers are building cheaper flats intentially, as that is what the market wants, in often less desireable parts of the cities to a lower standard (but still of reasonable quality).

Having said that, I'm interested in seeing how long it takes to sell some of the projects currently being built, eg. ul.Twarda at an average price of PLN 20,000 and zlota 44 at an average price of PLN 30,000 - I have a hard time believing the Polish market will absorb such flats at such prices even over a period of 5 years, will be fun to watch.

Let's hope prices crash accross the board, I would love the possibility to purchase quality apartments in Mokotow at a fraction of the current price, sadly it is unlikely to happen - maybe there will be some good deals in Białołęka if anyone would like to move out there

Life / Car or no car to commute in Warszawa? (Warsaw) [13]

I lived here for 8 years without a car and didn't think it was necessary.

I've now owned a car for 3 years and realized life is noticeably better with a car than without in Warsaw.

New cars here are expensive, so you may want to consider bringing yours - I believe if you owned it >6 months you can bring it in tax free (you'll want to confirm this) and potentially there are modifications that would be necessary.

However if you are just here for a short time I wouldn't bring a car.

Regarding riding a bike, I don't find it that bike friendly here (in the center of Warsaw).

Real Estate / Mokotów (Warsaw) or other areas with kids? [4]

Will you drive to work? if not, a place in mokotow near the metro may be good (espescially in about 3 years when the Rondo Onz metro stop opens).

A friend of mine lives in żoliborz on gwiaździsta - there is a huge amazing park across the street (including a 5 km path around the park). If you drive to work it may be a good place - if you drive down the street you can't miss it on the right, I think you would be about 6 km from the center.

personally I would live in the center, there are some parks behind Grzybowska, but they don't compare to the park on gwiaździsta.

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

I've been enjoying this discussion for too long and couldn't resist giving my thoughts any longer.

To give some perspective, I purchased a new apartment in central Warsaw last year KNOWING it will likely drop in value, just a decision I decided to make after renting for so long; I just thought it was time to buy an apartment that I could finish and incorporate features you just won't find in 99.9% of the rental properties.

Regarding the press, even the negative articles seem to be overly optimistic. I espescially enjoy the articles about the so called 'luxury apartments' which is what they call the one I purchased. They definately are not a good investment, I could have rented the apartment I purchased for LESS than the interest I generated on the cash I used.

As interest rates rise, the number of vacant apartment rise, the 5 year period passes (related to taxation of sale of apartments), perpetual usufruct fees are increased (there are huge discrepencies in the rates paid between properties), 'new' apartments age and, god forbid, property taxes are introduced based on the market value of properties, the value of apartments will decrease.

There are of course positives, but I am confident that prices will fall (definately when inflation is considered, but likely ignoring inflation as well).

Do I care? A little, however as long as I am in Poland, if I sell the apartment I would expect to be able to buy a comperable apartment for the proceeds - therefore I would never 'realize' the loss (however wish I would have bought in 2004 when I started looking, although the apartment I bought at the time wasn't even designed yet).

Polsky/Milky will NEVER own anything however, as they have 'dream' expectations. Reality is if prices ever approached the amounts that they suggest the demand for apartments would absorb the apartments in the market.

Postings such as the below are ridiculous:

So about 1700 PLN/sq.m. will be te price at the end of 2011-2012
posted by polsky on Mar.02.2010

However I'm looking forward to the end of 2012 when we can reflect on this posting.

Ultimately I would say I support Polsky/Milky's views, however they are so unrealistic in their expectations they lose all credibility.

My suggestion would be rent, unless you find a 'perfect' apartment and have excess cash, then buy and make yourself happy if you are not concerned with the value dropping.

Now my question to all the posters, when you have cash, what should you do with it? There seem to be few, if any good investment alternatives in any currency, maybe someone would have a different view?

Work / Jobs for non Polish speakers? [24]

While it is not impossible, I work for a large company that had a large number of non-Polish speakers working for it 10 years ago. We are no longer interested in hiring individuals who do not have english as their native language. Additionally I have a large number of expats who have lost their jobs in Poland and have contacted me regarding any possible positions for them, unfortunately they have not been able to find jobs (even when they have learned the Polish language to a level where they are able to work in Polish).