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Demand for apartments low in Poland's main cities


peterweg 36 | 2,316
19 Oct 2011  #1
Demand for apartments low in Poland's main cities

Apartments anyone? That's a question being asked by a group of six large Polish municipalities, including Warsaw, Kraków, £ódź and Poznań, after the stock of unsold apartment buildings shattered records developers would rather not know about.

Rzeczpospolita reports that more than 48,000 newly built apartments in Poland's largest cities are still sitting unoccupied, awaiting eager buyers.

The next logical question asked by analysts is whether this flooded market will cause residential prices to drop significantly. At present, prices have only fallen slightly.

wbj/article-56556-demand-for-apartments-low-in-polands-main-cities.html

And there is this, Polish 2012 growth forecast slashed:
Wedle 16 | 496
19 Oct 2011  #2
Great if property prices go down it will be a good time to buy again.
PWEI 3 | 612
19 Oct 2011  #3
At present, prices have only fallen slightly.

No, they've gone down by as much as 20% in some sections of the market: you can't call that 'slight'!

Are they going to go down more? In some sections of the market I would expect so, and in other sections of the market there will be rises in prices. Fortunately for me, prices for what I want to buy haven't bottomed out yet, so I can wait another year or so and save up more for the deposit.
rt3d 10 | 46
19 Oct 2011  #4
No, they've gone down by as much as 20% in some sections of the market:

where did you gather your source of
info from... PWEI
PWEI 3 | 612
19 Oct 2011  #5
where did you gather your source of info

Comparing the prices in a particular development I was interested in a couple of years ago with what places there are going for now.
milky 13 | 1,657
19 Oct 2011  #6
No, they've gone down by as much as 20% in some sections of the market: you can't call that 'slight'!

In some places like Lublin, prices have 'not' gone down 'at all' yet; the sh1t has yet to hit the fan,big time.
Denial has sunk deep___ but!!!, without the government's phony grants(interfering with the market when it suits Banker-developers), Prices will go down +20% this year, is my bet.
PWEI 3 | 612
19 Oct 2011  #7
Prices will go down +20% this year, is my bet.

Money where your mouth is!
Specify:
city (or cities) in which prices will go down by more than 20%;
price per sq. m bands in which prices will go down by more than 20%;
flat size bands in which prices will go down by more than 20%;
the period which you refer to by "this year".

I'm willing to bet you 100zl at odds of ten to one (i.e. if you win you get 1,000zl but if I win I get only 100zl) that not even one city in Poland will see falls of more than 20% in all price per sq. m bands and all flat size bands this year and I'll bet you 500zl at even money that no city in Poland will see falls of even 10% in all price per sq. m bands and all flat size bands this year.
rt3d 10 | 46
19 Oct 2011  #8
supply and demand will determine theses prices..
any way the article was written on the bases of newly built apartments..
are the any realistic figures for newly built houses

also PWEI, where the development which you Compared depend greatly on locations
could you state those locations..
Avalon 4 | 1,068
19 Oct 2011  #9
Prices will go down +20% this year, is my bet.

Another prediction? Not a very good track record so far.
PWEI 3 | 612
19 Oct 2011  #10
my bet.

Come on, place the bet you want to make! You have the odds now and the details.

also PWEI, where the development which you Compared depend greatly on locations

I am talking about three specific developments in Warsaw offering flats of about 80 to 90 metres in which prices have gone down by 20%.
gazzaroon - | 36
19 Oct 2011  #11
What have been the last 5 year drop or gain figures out of interest does anyone know?
scottie1113 7 | 898
19 Oct 2011  #12
Talk to me about Gdansk. Newly built blocks of flats have have down a little, but not in the Old Town. Care to talk about that?
gazzaroon - | 36
19 Oct 2011  #13
I would suggest that some cities will see a fall and some will not depending on geographic and so on.
PWEI 3 | 612
20 Oct 2011  #14
No major city is going to see falls in all price per sq. metre and size bands. Most will see falls in some band and rises in others. A select few will see rises in almost all bands, perhaps even in all. However, I have very little idea which will be which or where.
milky 13 | 1,657
20 Oct 2011  #15
the period which you refer to by "this year".

Whoops, sorry I meant the next 12 months, however I can't see the prices going down too much in Poland B as the purchasing is largely done by Poles working abroad . Gamble??no thanks that's a developers game. Time is on the buyers side.

Not a very good track record so far.

says a developer hahah

No major city is going to see falls in all price per sq. metre and size bands.

nonsense and you know it.
Avalon 4 | 1,068
20 Oct 2011  #16
says a developer hahah

Exactly, someone that actually does this. Not someone who guesses, makes stupid predictions and who has no knowledge of the property market.

As regards the so say lack of demand for housing, I have my own theory. Until the banks sort out their liquidity problems and what percentage of capitol they are supposed to keep in reserve then any major lending will be put on hold. The banks feel safer lending small sums of 3,000PLN to 100 individuals than 300,000 to one person for a mortgage. Why settle for 7-8% interest when you can charge 12-19% for a short term loan that will not be on the books for 30 years. Its no different than the banks in the UK that are refusing to lend to small businesses, yet are pushing personal loans and credit cards.

Once the fate of the "Euro" is sorted, out one way or the other, life and trade will go on, it might take a while but the demand will return.
OP peterweg 36 | 2,316
20 Oct 2011  #17
Once the fate of the "Euro" is sorted, out one way or the other, life and trade will go on, it might take a while but the demand will return.

In Poland it maybe sooner, but in the UK and other western countries you are looking at FIVE years at least before a recovery.
Avalon 4 | 1,068
20 Oct 2011  #18
but in the UK and other western countries you are looking at FIVE years at least before a recovery.

If not longer.
LwowskaKrakow 28 | 431
20 Oct 2011  #19
Bubble in Spain, Bubble in Florida,Bubble in China, Bubble in Ireland, and now Bubble in Poland.
Less than 3 months ago we had a debate on PF about Polish Real Estate falling down and i with some others had the same opinion this article is reflecting now in October 2011.

If thousands of newly built flats are sitting empty in Poland the bubble will burst in less than 2 years.
Avalon 4 | 1,068
20 Oct 2011  #20
[quote=LwowskaKrakow

Bubble in Spain, Bubble in Florida,Bubble in China, Bubble in Ireland, and now Bubble in Poland.

If thousands of newly built flats are sitting empty in Poland the bubble will burst in less than 2 years[/quote]

And this is your quote from July, 2008

"So now we have this bubble , normal correction but if the Polish Government continues to attract speculation it will be worse"

Is this a 3 year bubble now or will it be a 5 year bubble in 2 years time?
pip 10 | 1,661
20 Oct 2011  #21
there is no bubble. why does everybody keep saying there is.
there is a saturated market and the prices are leveling out. they are not going to fall drastically- which is the definition of a bubble. They will level out and developers will finally have to charge fair market value- not the inflated prices they have had.
PWEI 3 | 612
20 Oct 2011  #22
there is no bubble. why does everybody keep saying there is.

Because:
a) they do not know what a bubble is; and/or
b) they believe that by talking down the market prices will go down and they will thus be able to afford the properties which are currently out of their reach.
Ziemowit 12 | 3,401
20 Oct 2011  #23
Is this a 3 year bubble now or will it be a 5 year bubble in 2 years time?

In 10 years time it will be a 12 year bubble, and in 15 years time it will be a 17 year bubble. This bubble will never ever stop as it is an ongoing bubble. That's what it really is.
Avalon 4 | 1,068
20 Oct 2011  #24
there is no bubble. why does everybody keep saying there is.

Because pip, by the law of averages, one day they might be right. Just like people who buy lottery tickets, somebody has to win.
PWEI 3 | 612
20 Oct 2011  #25
This bubble will never ever stop as it is an ongoing bubble.

Which by definition means that it is not a bubble.
BRS 2 | 48
20 Oct 2011  #26
While I agree you aren't going to make any money on Polish real estate, 48,000 empty new flats may not be that many in a country that actual has a need for new flats.

Spain has a similar population, less need, and over 700,000 new flats empty and signficantly more new & used flats sitting empty.

Additionally, at least part of the reason for the fall in prices is developers are building cheaper flats intentially, as that is what the market wants, in often less desireable parts of the cities to a lower standard (but still of reasonable quality).

Having said that, I'm interested in seeing how long it takes to sell some of the projects currently being built, eg. ul.Twarda at an average price of PLN 20,000 and zlota 44 at an average price of PLN 30,000 - I have a hard time believing the Polish market will absorb such flats at such prices even over a period of 5 years, will be fun to watch.

Let's hope prices crash accross the board, I would love the possibility to purchase quality apartments in Mokotow at a fraction of the current price, sadly it is unlikely to happen - maybe there will be some good deals in Białołęka if anyone would like to move out there
PWEI 3 | 612
20 Oct 2011  #27
maybe there will be some good deals in Białołęka if anyone would like to move out there

From what I'm seeing and hearing, prices out there are very stable or actually going up (in large part because city centre and outer centre stuff has become unaffordable for many people).
milky 13 | 1,657
20 Oct 2011  #28
there is no bubble. why does everybody keep saying there is.

because you 'keep saying' that there is no bubble even though prices tripled in many places over a three year period.

they do not know what a bubble is;

Oh yes we do..............en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish_property_bubble

Because pip, by the law of averages,

yeas the law of averages definitely states there is a bubble(wages-Prices)

From what I'm seeing and hearing, prices out there are very stable or actually going up

hhhahahahahah
I hope all you rational people out there are laughing at the above statement... Do you get paid per word or per letter from that developer you work for.
JonnyM 11 | 2,621
20 Oct 2011  #29
tripled in many places over a three year period.

examples of prices 'tripling' then this 'bubble' bursting, please.

prices out there are very stable or actually going up

In some parts of Poland this is certainly happening.

hwikipedia.org/wiki/Polish_prop...

Is it just me or is the style of writing on that wiki page somehow familiar.
pip 10 | 1,661
20 Oct 2011  #30
a wikipedia source. you can't be serious. and from 2007.

some added info.
in 2007 and 2008 the prices of homes were hugely inflated- builders were making crap loads of money. then 2009 the world wide crisis hits and banks are making it more difficult to borrow money.

so now we are at a point where the prices are leveling out. buyers are able to be picky about what they buy and builders need to provide quality products. the market is saturated and it works on the side of the buyer.

because the banks are not lending large amounts- a first time buyer may only be able to afford 50 m2.
people are still buying, prices are leveling out.
there is no bubble.


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