News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


Yet again, you're repeating what PiS are trying to claim. What's actually happening now is a repeat of what PiS did to Komorowski, and by charging a protester for "insulting" Duda, it makes him look weak and insecure. It doesn't help that Duda is driving around the country in large convoys, as it makes him look even more out of touch.

No-one will believe that Duda is a victim, not least because he's not a sympathetic figure. If he was an elder statesman who was dignified - yes. But he's not - he's a partisan President who has done plenty to divide people.


It really depends. There's now evidence that Duda is unwelcome in opposition heartlands, and these are places where Duda needs votes. If he now starts avoiding places because PiS are afraid of a hostile reaction, or if he knows that he's not able to deal with them, it's already a massive win for the opposition.

I think the trick now is to deploy this weapon sparingly, but randomly. A few more arrests for "insulting the President" won't hurt as well.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Duda got another hostile reception today in Łowicz, and a 65 year old man has been charged with "insulting the President" after he held up a banner that called Duda a fool.

But what matters more is what happened next: He turned up in Turek, but 50 minutes late. He also turned up somewhere that PiS has between 50-60% support, which means that he's repeating the Komorowski mistake of turning up in places where he's already well supported.

That's not all. Yet another film is now circulating on social media, showing how Duda is travelling around - with a cavalcade of cars, including an ambulance, and that other traffic is forced to stop. They also crossed a railway crossing without stopping.

Kidawa-Błońska is loudly demanding that Duda vetoes the TVP bill, and it seems like signing the bill now will be his death warrant.

News / Why is Poland so hostile against Germany? Do they realize how their reparations rubbish damages relations? [510]


Indeed. For me, it's a remarkable example of humanity and good will towards others.

Those words should be repeated during every historical commemoration, in my opinion.

News / Why is Poland so hostile against Germany? Do they realize how their reparations rubbish damages relations? [510]


"We forgive, and ask for forgiveness."

Beautiful.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


It's potentially a lot of lost votes for Duda, as KGHM miners can follow - which would be very, very bad news for PiS.


I think she's doing well so far to be approachable - and by not being afraid to go into PiS heartlands to campaign.

One thing that seems clear: Duda is not liked by young voters. It can be a disaster for him, as young Bosak voters won't vote for him, while the young Biedroń voters will vote for Kidawa-Błońska.

The TVP bill is waiting for him as well - and dithering won't help his cause.

News / Is the Polish-Polish war ending? Is the PiS-PiS war beginning? [14]


You have to wonder what Banaś is plotting. He's handing out black eye after black eye to PiS, and he seems to be remarkably effecient when it comes to conducting audits and hammering PiS with them.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


It doesn't bode well if he's losing by decisive margins in some of the more populous provinces. At a comparable point, Komorowski had a 25-30% lead, which shows how important a well run campaign is.

I think we'll see some knee jerk reactions from PiS with welfare, and it wouldn't surprise me if 500+ becomes 750+ or similar.


It is very, very strange. There are murmurings that part of this is related to the ongoing Ziobro-Morawiecki conflict, but either way, you have to wonder why PiS have started a campaign without any real slogans or platform beyond "vote for Duda".

News / Why is Poland so hostile against Germany? Do they realize how their reparations rubbish damages relations? [510]


Largely for the reasons that BB suggests. It would have been possible to formalise some of the more important rulings from Karlsruhe too, while also allowing the East German people the chance to shape their country too.

I'd also say that for legitimacy reasons, it would be good to put an all-German constitution to the popular vote.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


Exhibit #1, your honour.


It's amazing how Ironside has no problem with actual Communists, but has problems with people who identify with an older Polish political tradition.

News / Why is Poland so hostile against Germany? Do they realize how their reparations rubbish damages relations? [510]


I do think it was a mistake not to draft a new Constitution after 1990, though. The Basic Law is a great constitution, but I think a new document wouldn't go amiss.

But well, anyone who knows anything about history knows that the 2+4 agreement ended the occupation of Berlin.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


It's a marathon, not a sprint, but I'm sensing that things are much closer than Duda would like them to be. For example, in Wielkopolska, the latest poll gives Kidawa-Błońska a lead of 57-43, in Silesia 56-44, in Lower Silesia 53-47, in Pomorskie 58-42. It's clear that Kidawa-Błońska needs to pick up votes in Lower Silesia, but she also needs to limit the damage in Małopolska (currently, 62-38 to Duda).

(Torq, just to be clear, WKK is only slightly less popular than Kidawa-Błońska in the second round in all of those places.)

For me, I have great hopes that WKK will connect with voters in the East.

Work / Choice of Poland's OFE ( Open Pension Funds ) [30]


It's nothing but a cash grab.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

I love the fact that I cancel out Notty's vote :)

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


It's Kantar, so it's pretty reliable. Some of the pills are a joke, but the Kantar ones are fairly reliable.

Interestingly, I looked at the provincial polls yesterday, and Duda stands to lose in most of them vs Kidawa-Błońska. His narrow lead comes from winning by big margins in the East, nothing more.


Money issues, I think. I read one report where they were trying to raise the money needed, and there were questions over whether he could even get the signatures needed.


I think it shows how difficult it will be for Duda in the second round. PO are hammering PiS with simple viral videos showing PiS as arrogant and out of touch, and Kidawa-Błońska is doing the right thing by making her campaign about local issues.

It won't have helped that Duda has no programme so far, while other candidates are offering their vision of Poland already. WKK for instance is highlighting the damage done to Polish education.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


Maybe not though, because Duda has history - remenber those weird late night tweets? If he was more of a sympathetic figure, maybe, but I think it's hard for him to get any when you consider how he's behaved so far.


It's just enough to promote equality and so on, I think. Bosak is weak and uneducated, and he's not a match for Biedroń.

I still think the unknown here is Hołowina. If he takes some of Duda's electorate, then Duda will be in serious trouble.

Law / Parental Child Abduction (Indian man married to Polish wife) [32]


Probably a permanent resident.

Thanks Lenka and Oawian, I was looking in the wrong places :/ TVN24 is running with the story as well, and the Polish police are coming under criticism for not checking as to who the legal guardian was.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


She's already old news, but when you think about these incidents, they all add up. If every picture discourages 1000 people from voting for Duda, and there's 80-something days to the election, he stands to lose 80,000 votes from these mistakes alone. If he then refuses to meet people face-to-face while Kidawa-Błońska is going around and hugging everyone in sight (as she's been doing) - it will hurt him even more.

I'm more interested right now in what Biedroń will do. Will he torment Bosak in order to get a predictably disgusting reaction?

Law / Parental Child Abduction (Indian man married to Polish wife) [32]


Pawian, where did you read that? I can't find anything stating so...

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


They do. Look at Duda's support - it will come from PiS supporters and possibly Konfederacja supporters, with a very small amount from the PSL and Hołowina. Meanwhile, Kidawa-Błońska, Hołowina and Kosiniak-Kamysz are largely electable by each other's electorate. I can't imagine the average PO voter deciding to stay at home just because Hołowina or Kosniak-Kamysz made it to the 2nd round.

Duda meanwhile has firmly placed himself as the candidate of PiS, which will also sour some voters.

I only know for myself - I would have no problem voting for any of those three.


True, but what did Kukiz have beyond a bunch of small town mayors in 2015? Voters seem to like their maverick non-partisan candidates in Presidential elections, after all.


Love always defeats hate, after all.

News / Scandals, conflicts, tensions, arguments - real life examples from Poland [470]


For Ironside, the real problem is that PiS will lose control.

News / Dodgy PRL-holdover judiciary finally reformed [420]


You mean it appealed to the 5-10% of voters who are obsessed with Jews but who are incapable of reading laws.

News / Is NORD STREAM dangerous for Poland's natural enviroment? [516]


The problem is - if you stop buying from Russia, then do you do the same with countries such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia?


Exactly. It would be much better and far more honest if the Americans admitted that they simply want to force Europeans to pay higher prices for their gas. As for the Poles, the whole thing has always been about the loss of perceived power over the trainsit pipeline.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


Most importantly, these are the projected results from the 2nd round, based on a very large sample of 8000 voters.

Duda 50.3%
Kidawa-Błońska 49.7%

Duda 50.4%
Hołownia 49.6%

Duda 50.8%
Kosiniak-Kamysz 49.2%

Duda 57.0%
Biedroń 43.0%

Duda 74.5%
Bosak 25.5%

As we can see, Duda is only narrowly winning with three out of the five challengers, and he only decisively beats one of them (Bosak).

It's very hard for an incumbent to make up ground in an electoral race, which has to be cause for concern for Duda. This campaign looks to be putting his association with PiS front-and-centre, which is a strange tactic given that PiS received only 44.6% of the votes in the Senate. Perhaps this explains why Duda chose to surround himself with known fascists at the convention?

polskatimes.pl/wybory-prezydenckie-2020-sondaz-polska-press-grupy-i-dobrej-opinii-wynik-do-konca-bedzie-niewiadoma


Hahahaha. Yet you and Spike both post word-for-word what PiS politicians say, so what is it?

Law / Moving back to Poland - Healthcare [29]


They're not part of the EU, so that part of his plan is scuppered ;) There's no freedom of movement between them and the rest of the EU, same with the Isle of Man. If you're (for instance) from the Isle of Man and you and your parents don't have a connection with the UK, you get a special note in your passport saying that you can't benefit from freedom of movement provisions.

They can move to the UK freely, but I'm not even sure if they've got freedom to move to Ireland or not.

News / Modern F-35 bought by Poland. Good decision? [288]


That sounds like something straight out of TVP. It's laughable, because Germany couldn't care less - if Poland gets richer, they'll buy more German products. And anyway, the Polish economy is so heavily dependent on Germany, beyond looting people's pockets through state-controlled monopolies.


You mean the initiatives that were met with apathy by everyone except Hungary, and even then, they instantly went off and did some dodgy deals with Putin instead?

I remember distinctly how the Slovaks turned round and said that they wanted nothing to do with PiS antagonising Brussels, and the Czechs have made it crystal clear in the last few months that they regard the V4 as being additional to and not a replacement for the EU.

Poland has lost a tremendous amount of influence. It's very apparent that people how people like Babis go on visits to places like Estonia, but they don't bother coming to Poland.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


Tell us, how did they provoke her into giving the middle finger to cancer patients?

News / Modern F-35 bought by Poland. Good decision? [288]


He's right.

News / Coal-Powered Poland Refuses to "Go Green". EU Ain't Happy. [304]


In the case of Poland, the problem isn't even regulation, but actually accessing it. It's simply unprofitable, and the Polish government (already heavily subsidising coal mines) has no interest in subsidising it. The Americans are blessed with very favourable geological conditions, but in Poland, it isn't the case.

Furthermore, many deposits are in places where it would be a no-go to even attempt drilling.


Ironside is obviously cheering this on, because he's not the one paying for it.

Work / Excel Template For Faktury (invoices) in Poland [2]

Don't bother with that, use efaktury.org instead. It's in Polish and English, too.

You can create invoices for free, but it's only 50zł for a year if you create an account (first 100 days are free) and you can keep everything in one place. You can also generate requests for payment through the site, and you can be assured that the invoices generated are legally compliant.

News / Coal-Powered Poland Refuses to "Go Green". EU Ain't Happy. [304]


Poland doesn't have that much, and it requires heavy state subsidies for it to be mined. From a commercial point of view, most mines in Poland aren't viable.