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Will Poland be badly hit by Recession ? I don't think so. [70]
@Bobko
1) Ukraine people for the most part are not helping to offset labor. I have seen very few working in any business other than Zabka a chain of convenience stores. The steak place had predominantly Polish staff that had been kept on through two years of pandemic. However in Krakow specifically, landlords with commercial real estate are now trying to gouge business owners or those looking to start up in order to recoup their losses from the pandemic. This strategy being driven by real estate agents is not working. I recently looked at another opportunity and laughed in the agents face when presented terms.
2) I bought an existing restaurant to diversify my portfolio. Nothing has had to change and though costs are up roughly 10% across the board on COGS, there is enough margin in food to not pass it along to the customer. Some restaurants are trying to take advantage of rising costs and raising their costs even higher than inflation, those are now suffering for their actions.
3.) As I said, rents are crazy if a realtor is involved. Private commercial rentals are realistic because the owners know that getting a lower amount is better than getting nothing. That said, I could take over 70 restaurants in Krakow right now if I wanted. It is a buyers, or renters market if you know what you are doing.
4.) This particular business is really reliant on Poles. The expat community is really the gravy of the business, and that has grown simply because having a real American as an owner helped get more expats in the door with a few menu changes.
5.) Inflation slowing? I would expect in the next 6 to 9 months inflation should slow, but the next 4 months or so will be difficult. Poland, with mental midgets running the country and the bank of Poland will struggle to come out of what I see as a recession. Bad economic policy before, during and after COVID coupled with the war and excessive spending will produce very difficult times for Poles this winter.
I limited my comments to Poland, I have different views on the US and still own business's there in different segments.
My comments regardless of like or dislike will always be honest. It is not a matter of like or dislike really. It is simply a matter of belief systems, ours are very different and directly opposed to each other.
