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Residential real estate values go down in Poland


wielki pan 2 | 250
14 Dec 2011 #91
If you have got euros to invest today, taking into consideration that the average EUR/PLN was about 3.80-1 over the last 2-3 years. At Euro/PLN 4.6-1 plus the decrease in prices 10-12% you are already close to - 30%.

Thats correct.... People who brought expensive homes say two years ago have certainly got their fingers burnt...30% plus and worse to come....if a person invested his 1m$ for the two years it would be 30% plus... The dollar 2 years ago was about 2.82 now its 3.50.
delphiandomine 88 | 18,475
14 Dec 2011 #92
Depends what currency they borrowed in.

But the Euro sitting at 4.6 certainly isn't normal or based on reality - it's likely to swing back to 4:1 very quickly.
Wedle 16 | 496
14 Dec 2011 #93
But the Euro sitting at 4.6 certainly isn't normal or based on reality - it's likely to swing back to 4:1 very quickly.

I was reading it would be at 4.85 in 2012 Q1, the PL gov have stated they would like to see it at 4.1, but thats all smoke and mirrors.
Avalon 4 | 1,068
15 Dec 2011 #94
Just to keep thing in context, check the price here from countries were the wages are 4 times higher.

"Property sales have fallen 70pc in the inland city of Changsa. Prices have reportedly dropped 70pc in the "ghost city" of Ordos in Inner Mongolia".

telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-business/8957289/Chinas-epic-hangover-begins.html

I realise that the link is not about real estate in Poland but it is about as relevant as your links to Irish property prices.
Massif
15 Dec 2011 #95
I've already nailed my own colours to the mast at 20%.

CMS must be British- he believes the Agora agenda, much like Britain's Daily Mail!
JonnyM 11 | 2,620
15 Dec 2011 #96
he believes the Agora agenda,

The what?
Massif
15 Dec 2011 #97
But the Euro sitting at 4.6 certainly isn't normal or based on reality - it's likely to swing back to 4:1 very quickly.

English teachers providing financial analysis... you know the world's gone mad...
JonnyM 11 | 2,620
15 Dec 2011 #98
Shame you don't provide any of your own credentials for commenting on the housing market. Speaking as someone who isn't an English teacher I would still agree with CMS. 20% is a credible figure.
Harry
15 Dec 2011 #99
Speaking as someone who isn't an English teacher I would still agree with CMS. 20% is a credible figure.

Speaking as somebody who also isn't an English teacher, I would say that 20% is too high for the average price drop (although it is entirely possible that some sectors in some places will see falls of more than 20%).
JonnyM 11 | 2,620
15 Dec 2011 #100
You're probably right. There are some interesting economic phenomena around the corner and we could all be surprised. I've a feeling the price of smallholdings will keep rising whereas suburbs will not keep pace.
milky 13 | 1,657
15 Dec 2011 #101
I realise that the link is not about real estate in Poland but it is about as relevant as your links to Irish property prices.

Well, England and Ireland are in the EU, wages are 4 time higher than Poland.

independent.ie/national-news/83647anhour-pay-gap-cost-1900-dell-jobs-1596439.html

So Mr free market economy, stop claiming that all is not connected. EU-Europe-Poland -Ireland-world recession-UK. Everything is relevant. The market will decide lol
wielki pan 2 | 250
16 Dec 2011 #102
There are some interesting economic phenomena around the corner and we could all be surprised

you mean a economic black cloud...no one wants to speak gloom and doom for obvious reasons, but when you speak to financial expects privately most agree a severe downturn is on the horizons....may not have a severe impact on Polish real estate as Poles don't sell at bargain basement prices, developers may have to wear the brunt..The government may have to cut spending etc....people on fixed income ie pensioners will have it hard..
JonnyM 11 | 2,620
16 Dec 2011 #103
you mean a economic black cloud

I mean exactly that - but something a bit longer lasting than a black cloud. We have boom and bust, but after this bust will the boom be in this part of the world...
milky 13 | 1,657
16 Dec 2011 #104
as Poles don't sell at bargain basement prices,

Since when?? I know lots of people who got massive bargains prior to late 2005. Maybe,you mean Poles haven't been selling at basement prices over the last (6)few years. This could not possibly represent a mutation in Polish traits over such a tiny period. The market, will decide, how people behave in relation to their economic decisions.

And, you know, there is no such thing as society. There are individual men and women, and there are families.
Margaret Thatcher, Conservative Prime Minister, 1987 wrong wrong wrong

In Ireland between 2000-08 the average Joe Soap was saying, "you have to get on the property ladder, the Irish are greedy, they'll never budge on prices",If I'd got a penny for every time I heard this I'd be a rich ..........

These same greedy people(Poles in Eire included) are now selling at up to 70% less.
My point! the conviction and backbone of a seller is a bluff;the market is King.
Avalon 4 | 1,068
16 Dec 2011 #105
In Ireland between 2000-08 the average Joe Soap was saying, "you have to get on the property ladder, the Irish are greedy, they'll never budge on prices",If I'd got a penny for every time I heard this I'd be a rich ..........

And if you had bought in 2000 and sold before 2007, you would have been rich.
pip 10 | 1,661
16 Dec 2011 #106
I visited on my first trip to Poland in 92.

that says it all, doesn't it. you don't live here and you don't get the mentality. people still buy less than 35 m2 flats. they have been selling all along. the retiree's are buying them as are singles and private investors.

I have worked with a good number of builders and this is what is selling- less than 40m2. When you have to fit out an apartment on top of the purchase of the place- it is expensive. A good purchase, in my opinion, is a resale apartment. Usually you can get bigger and it is finished so that you can live in it while you slowly refinish it when you get the money- instead of spending a lot for the initial purchase and then the extra for the fit out and cost of hiring a carpenter.

There are loads of resale places in blocks that are less than ten years old. the problem in this country is that residential agents are beyond a fcuking joke and have no clue how to sell a house or in fact have no knowledge of client relations or professionalism.
cms 9 | 1,271
16 Dec 2011 #107
you don't live here

I do live here.

92 was the first time I visited, as a student and I stay with some Polish relatives for a few days on edge of Warsaw. There were 3 generations in a flat I would guess to be 50 sqm. It didn't seem to be a lifestyle choice they had made themselves.
Harry
16 Dec 2011 #108
the problem in this country is that residential agents are beyond a fcuking joke and have no clue how to sell a house or in fact have no knowledge of client relations or professionalism.

You hit the nail on the head there pip. Agents here are usually utterly incompetent and simply expect to be given thousands of zloty for doing almost nothing.
milky 13 | 1,657
16 Dec 2011 #109
It didn't seem to be a lifestyle choice they had made themselves.

Exactly!!!!!!!!!!! and I'm sick of making this point to the like of pip and Co....
I hope there are people reading this,and laughing at the statements repeatedly made here, that Poles "actually" choose to live in such tiny accommodation

3 generations in a flat I would guess to be 50 sqm

Some people are just pathetic with their superiority complexes.
IT'S ALL THEY CAN AFFORD, NOT, IT'S WHAT THEY CHOOSE OR PREFER.
IT'S ALL THEY CAN AFFORD, NOT, IT'S WHAT THEY CHOOSE OR PREFER.
IT'S ALL THEY CAN AFFORD, NOT, IT'S WHAT THEY CHOOSE OR PREFER.
IT'S ALL THEY CAN AFFORD, NOT, IT'S WHAT THEY CHOOSE OR PREFER.
IT'S ALL THEY CAN AFFORD, NOT, IT'S WHAT THEY CHOOSE OR PREFER.
all that is selling is 35M apartments, because............................................................... ........................
ok
Harry
16 Dec 2011 #110
IT'S ALL THEY CAN AFFORD, NOT, IT'S WHAT THEY CHOOSE OR PREFER.

Speak for yourself. I live in a 50m flat because that is what I choose. I don't need anything bigger so why have anything bigger?
f stop 25 | 2,513
16 Dec 2011 #111
I think he was speaking for 3 generations living in 50m2 flat.
pip 10 | 1,661
16 Dec 2011 #112
I don't get what you are talking about. Never ever have I said anything with regards to Poles buying what they can afford. If you look back to what I have said it has never argued that point. My point is that there is no property bubble and I think that there is a resale market in Poland that is untapped. First time buyers are not looking at flats that are already finished they, for the most part, are looking at new. There is a reason for this. Resale homes are not sale ready- the pictures that the agents put on the web are stupid stupid stupid. messy and ugly. It is not difficult to stage a home for sale but agents don't do this.

I stand firm in my belief that agents in this country don't know their arse from a hole in the ground. They know nothing about the market, how to sell a house or client relations.

I don't have a superiority complex- but you have been spouting the dribble of housing bubble for quite some time and now you are saying that small flats have always sold? make up your mind.

now developers are offering perks because the market has slowed. this includes new cars, lower prices and bigger spaces.

there still is no bubble and 35m2 have always sold and will continue to sell- for more reasons than what Poles can afford. Polish people have different spacial concepts than those in the west.
f stop 25 | 2,513
16 Dec 2011 #113
It is not difficult to stage a home for sale but agents don't do this.

This whole 'staging' a home is an art of deceiving and covering up the shortcomings of the property.. I hope it doesn't work in Poland. It's for cheats and idiots.
Wroclaw 44 | 5,386
16 Dec 2011 #114
This whole 'staging' a home is an art of deceiving and covering up the shortcomings of the property.

nah! double aspect views. is a positive.

room for potential. would suit a confident DIY enthusiast. are negatives.

and fresh cut flowers on the table don't fool me.

not many would buy their first home without the opinion of someone with experience. besides that most folk make their mind up in the first five minutes of viewing.
f stop 25 | 2,513
16 Dec 2011 #115
I disagree. By the time we go to see the place, the location, size and price is usually a match, so what we want to see is what's wrong with the place. Attempts to cover stuff up is an annoyance.
pip 10 | 1,661
16 Dec 2011 #116
This whole 'staging' a home is an art of deceiving and covering up the shortcomings of the property.. I hope it doesn't work in Poland. It's for cheats and idiots.

actually it is anything but. I used to teach a course in home staging. the entire concept is getting rid of the clutter and all personal items and junk to show the entire space. Everything should already be repaired and in good working order. If somebody is trying to hide a leaky faucette or broken pipes then they are not staging a home for sale- they are cheating.

there is no lying- there is cleaning and painting and fixing. that is what home staging is. it is not lying or cheating to make a sale.

And it works. here in poland and elsewhere. I sold my home in 3 months in an osiedle where 6 other same models were for sale. the homes were not staged. In the spring I also helped a colleague stage her home- this involved a kitchen reno and new laminate flooring- the house sold in three days. And that is no lie. It was a resale home in an old 70's block that was sold to a retiree. He wanted to buy the entire contents of the flat- including the pictures and the sofa.

Space doesn't have to be big- but it has to be useful and in Poland so many people try to cram as much stuff as possible in a small space- leaving it full of clutter and no room to move.
f stop 25 | 2,513
16 Dec 2011 #117
yes, exactly! The essential furniture, such as dressers in bedrooms are taken out so the rooms "look" bigger.
I've done my share of staging for photographs, so I know what I'm talking about, too.
I assumed that Poles have enough imagination to overlook somebody else stuff and smart enough to bring a measuring tape. ;)
Wroclaw 44 | 5,386
16 Dec 2011 #118
I disagree

with me ? but i agree with you.
f stop 25 | 2,513
16 Dec 2011 #119
brand new coat of paint worries me as well, but I'm an exception here, I realize.

Wroclaw: I'm feeling stupid.
pip 10 | 1,661
16 Dec 2011 #120
I assumed that Poles have enough imagination to overlook somebody else stuff and smart enough to bring a measuring tape. ;)

actually they don't, nor do many people- not specifically Polish.

It doesn't have anything to do with tricking or deceiving somebody- it has to do with presenting a space to the best of its ability. It has nothing to do with imagination to look past somebody else's stuff. It is staging a home so that people can view it with the least amount of hassle and distractions. Being able to see a space with no clutter allows a buyer to be able to put themselves there. I am not making this sh*t up. It actually works. There are loads of books, courses, and clients to prove that it does. I can attest that it works here in Poland. If you have a look through oferty.net you will see loads of homes full of sh*t. They don't sell because people don't get past the pictures on the website- this is why people want new flats. They don't want somebody else's crap nor do they want to paint or clean somebody else's mess.

It doesn't matter if you think people can see past the crap. There is evidence that they can't. And beside that- most people don't know how to design or decorate in order to please the potential buyers.

the idea behind staging a home is to present it so that it appeals to the most amount of viewers. In Poland people don't get past the website pictures because they are so full of clutter and crap. don't believe me? look on oferty.net.


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