Poland's apartment prices continue to fall

Correct.

Going down alright.

The data is based solely on asking prices rather than purchase prices.

Hardly reliable, given that most of those countries don't have any sort of professional valuation system. I'm sure, as a Polish property expert as you are, that you know all about how sellers just make up prices in Poland.

Is that a serious figure Harry? If so, then I am astonished any flat could be had in Greenwich for that amount. What's the catch?

It's not based on asking prices. The asterisk only applies to brazil.

Knight Frank are a very respected source and other consultancies like REAS are showing similar figures

Wages are made up ,house prices are made up.

I'm having trouble with the math.

Assuming it was a 25 year mortgage paying down to zero, I ran some quick calculations.

To pay down the mortgage by only PLN 100 the interest rate would have to be 24% and they would have to pay PLN 3910 per month.
If the interest rate was 10% they would pay PLN 1772 a month and pay the mortgage down by PLN 1847 in the first year.

Could it be that the payments they were making were going to the fee to arrange the loan first and then to principle?

If you give me their monthly payment and the rate they pay I can run an amortization schedule and make them feel better.

Its Thamesmead, they abandon property there. Very poor transport infrastructure, so only good if you are long term unemployed and into stabbing, shooting and shooting up.

Thamesmead competes for being one of the worst places to live in the UK.

I assumed that it was, like about 80% of mortgages in Poland, in Swiss frank and that the fall of the zloty made it look that way today.

I could be wrong.

ok, understood, it was the exchange rate that killed them

Stanley Kubrick shot A Clockwork Orange there. And that was when it was new. I grew up near Thamesmead and it was acknowledged to be a ghastly mistake before it was even completed. Now it's crack central and a place to avoid like the plague.

So........anyone got the prices for Jan and Feb 2012
LInK???

Interesting article about the overheated Toronto market - I know this board loves statistics like "61% of the household income".
While the article may indicate that Warsaw is better off than Toronto; one important difference I believe is that the Toronto market is relatively liquid at the various price levels.

theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/rob-carrick/homebuyers-beware-market-sucker-punch/article2374242

The Toronto market may just cool off on its own. Royal Bank of Canada's latest data on housing affordability shows that mortgage payments, property taxes and utility costs for a standard two-storey home in the city were equal to 61 per cent of the median pre-tax household income at the end of 2011.

Three possible measures have been discussed as ways to slow the housing market:
-Reduce the maximum amortization period back to 25 years from the 30-year option introduced back in 2006, along with a 35-year option that is now defunct.
-Raise the minimum down payment from the current 5 per cent;
-Use tougher stress tests on new mortgage borrowers that would measure their ability to carry mortgages at the higher interest rates we'll see eventually.

why do you keep asking for something so ridiculous. What intelligent developer would ever make public their sales numbers??

Pip, he does this to keep the thread alive, then, when he gets caught telling lies and giving dodgy stats, he leaves for a couple of weeks and then comes back. You get used to it after three years.

man, enough already. no matter how many times you say it- it doesn't make it true. no property bubble.

I don't see the problem with asking for a link, we got them for all the previous months, which clearly show the bubble to be deflating.

Actually I found this but no Jan Feb stats

Although local consumption is expected to slow, it is also expected that exports will help compensate for this week demand, reducing the budget deficit from its current 5.3%. Houses in Warsaw have lost 13.63% of the value since the economic crisis began, while in Kraków prices are down by 17.87% and by 25.22% in Tri-City.

The number of new, unsold homes rose by 11% last year, even though the number of homes completed fell by 3%. The market also saw an increase of distressed sales and housing inventory levels have risen considerably.

Poland has benefited from nearly two decades of 5% annual growth, and since it joined the European Union in April 2004 there has been an enormous housing boom.

Prices in Warsaw increased by 23% in 2005, by 28% in 2006, by 45% in 2007 and by 13% in 2008, and some cities saw even larger price rises. EU membership encouraged foreigners to buy property in the country, even though they are limited to only one home each, and it also encouraged Poles working abroad to send money home.

Although the Polish property market is now seeing a price correction, it may be largely protected due to the fact that its economy is still growing and unlike most of Europe is less likely to suffer from a double dip recession.

Published: 7 Mar 2012

but property bubbles don't deflate. They pop. There has never been any disagreement with the fact that prices are lowering. In fact your post proved it. But they are lowering and leveling off- they are not popping which is what a property bubble is.

So no property bubbles around the world have deflated lol

Is this the part of the artical that you do not understand?. Many people have told you on this forum that there was/is a price correction as the rise in prices was unsustainable. Yet, you still insist on this mythical so called property bubble in Poland. If you are going to use this to prove a point, at least read it first. Even if you allowed for people buying at the top of the market in 2007, you are not talking of hundreds of thousands of buyers, the market in Poland is not that big so it would not affect the majority of people. If foreign investors got their fingers burnt, tough, that is not going to hurt the local market.

Here is another artical from today's newspaper. A survey by Lloyds TSB did a survey of house prices/increases over the past 10 years in different countries around the world. Poland does not even warrant a mention, yet you keep going on that prices increased by 300% here:-

dailymail.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-2116034/Lloyds-TSB-Global-Housing-Market-Booming-India-leads-world-house-price-league.html

Considering how the Daily Mail likes to print derogatory stories about Poland, I am surprised that there was no mention of prices here..

Even Germany has problems:-

spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,822473,00.html

No country is perfect. I'm the first to admit that I sometimes get angry and frustrated here but that is with the system, not the country itself

no they haven't. because by definition it is not then a bubble. It is a change in the market. a bubble is a different thing. there are definitions in real estate that are standard around the world and you are making a "property bubble" into something it is not.

Yes and we are still waiting for your definition.

This is a bubble and its popping rapidly.

Jan and Feb price data can be found e.g. on Oferty.net, falls of circa 6-8% per sqm in most towns.

The definition of a bubble has been posted here many times if you care to read the entire thread. There is no bubble in Poland.

From the average wage even in cities, I am to say the least surprised that some here think property prices are sustainable. If they are not set to fall, then wages must be set to very sharply rise. It seems to me it has to be one or the other.

My comments are directed towards Warsaw, but may be equally applicable to some other key cities.

More likely a combination of both.

Also I suspect where prices fall most, many of us won't want to live.

In the most desireable locations I don't think we will see people willing to sell at lower prices unless they are forced (eg. transferred to another city), even then they may choose to rent out instead.

Yes, the wikipedia definition is posted on here and would support the fact that there is a bubble.

many times I have posted links to real estate sales in Poland. I am not doing it again because many choose to ignore them. I posted a link to an article that discussed country wide stats- nobody gave it a second look.

no matter how many times I post links there are those that will choose not to accept the truth. Using a wikipedia link to prove a point is nothing more than a joke.

there is no bubble. sorry. go back and look at the links I have provided in this post and another one that has just gone off the radar. a slow down is not a bubble. a decrease in prices is not a bubble.

a bubble doesn't deflate- it pops. simple, done. over.

She is giving a personal opinion, all links and definitions by all non members(her husband is involved) of real estate pûrn would prove her 100% wrong.


You didn't read it so,or are you easily persuaded by the coercive philosophy of the car salesmen.


Yes I would accept it as well.


Why is Wikipedia a joke to you.. Do you never use it so??


Oh maybe you are talking in the literal sense as in bubble gum etc "I get you now sorry we were talking about real estate bubbles"

no- I never use wikipedia.

my husband deals with commercial- nothing to do with residential. at all.

however, interestingly enough- commercial has not slowed down, they are still leasing like crazy. so all of these companies that are leasing and setting up shop are hiring people.

can you agree to that?

your theory and so called facts do not support what is actually happening in Poland.

Which theories: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish_property_bubble