Poland's apartment prices continue to fall

8 Mar 2012 #481

you will fine one more soon

Harry

8 Mar 2012 #482

I can only laugh when I see 'sheds' in small towns priced at GBP100,000. The same properties I remember being sold for GBP15,000 in the 80's

The parents of a friend of mine recently sold their house. They bought it in the early 1970s for the princely sum of £3,000. Admittedly since then they have done a bit of work on the place (and apparently spent nearly as much on acquiring more land as they did on the initial property), tastes have changed and so have movement patterns, but the fact they sold it for something in the region of £800,000 suggests that the British housing market has indeed gone nucking futs.

Avalon 4 | 1,067

8 Mar 2012 #483

What relevance does Britain in 1990 have to poland in 2012 ?

I totally agree with this statement, except for the part where you think "luck" came in to it. You decided to buy and took a chance at that specific time in the market, if you had rented, you would not have made any "good money".

You did what was right for you at the time.
You are now advising people not to buy because you believe that prices in Poland have a long way to fall yet but the majority of people on here and in the MSM think that the chances of prices going backwards to 2002 levels is very remote, there may be small percentage falls but to my mind, the market has reached bottom. I respect your opinion but I think you may have to pay Harry with your bet.

Harry

8 Mar 2012 #484

I think you may have to pay Harry with your bet.

Actually, now we're more than a third of the way through that bet, how are we getting on?

now we're more than a third of the way through that bet, how are we getting on?

Sorry to quote myself but it was too late to edit.

Looks like I'm in the lead at the moment!
According to tabelaofert.pl/ceny-nieruchomosci (i.e. the source which was agreed for the bet) prices are as follows:
Katowice: up 7.98% month-on-month; up 2.61% quarter-on-quarter; down 7.09% year-on-year.
Kraków: up 1.49% month-on-month; up 3.8% quarter-on-quarter; up 2.74% year-on-year.
Poznań: down 0.58% month-on-month; up 1.38% quarter-on-quarter; down 2.91% quarter-on-quarter year-on-year.
Warszawa: up 1.74% month-on-month; up 3.62% quarter-on-quarter; up 0.98% year-on-year.
Wrocław: up 2.5% month-on-month; up 0.15% quarter-on-quarter; down 2.41% year-on-year.
Trójmiasto: up 2.14% month-on-month; up 0.89% quarter-on-quarter; down 0.37% year-on-year.

OP peterweg 37 | 2,311

8 Mar 2012 #485

You did what was right for you at the time.

In fact the time to buy is obvious and determined by economic factor completly outside any one individual. The ability to buy at that time is down to the individual - i.e. don't be up to your neck in bad debt or unemployed when the market turns.

The point is that Peter used the surplus cash you say you'd have from renting as opposed to buying with a 100% mortgage (i.e. 1000zl per month) to calculate that after 30 years one would have 1.175 million zloty. But if one buys, one spend the same amount every month and ends up with a property worth (using a conservative growth rate) of 1.553 million zloty.

I agree the figures I gave are unlikely to continue - 7% interest rate is too high long term. Wages are like to rise significantly in real terms (in relation to Euro/Dollar/Yen) and with it rent and house prices. So long term property should be a better bet than saving as you can leverage the profit with a mortgage.

Harry

8 Mar 2012 #486

Wages are like to rise significantly in real terms (in relation to Euro

Not even God knows what is going to happen to the Euro!

with it rent and house prices.

Which is a real piisser for people like me who are looking to buy.

Avalon 4 | 1,067

8 Mar 2012 #487

i.e. don't be up to your neck in bad debt or unemployed when the market turns.

I think that applies at any time. Any hint of a bad credit score is going to to make obtaining a full mortgage impossible.

OP peterweg 37 | 2,311

8 Mar 2012 #488

Warsaw nabs no. 2 spot in Europe for property investment attractiveness

Warsaw is the second-most attractive city in Europe in the eyes of international real estate investors, according to the "Real Estate Investor Intentions" survey that CBRE announced at the MIPIM 2012 property fair in Cannes, France, last week.

The Polish capital (chosen by 12 percent of the investors polled) ranked only lower than London (37 percent) and higher than cities including Paris (nine percent), Munich (eight percent) and Berlin (seven percent).

According to Colin Waddell, managing director of CBRE in Poland, Warsaw has benefited from the resilience of the Polish economy.

"The position of Warsaw among the most desired property investment destinations in Europe reflects Poland's well-deserved perception of a market with strong underlying fundamentals, able to weather global and European economic volatility," Mr Waddell said in a statement.

"The number-two score of the Polish capital, right after London and before Paris, Munich and Berlin, presents an optimistic outlook for developers and investors engaged in the Polish market, as well as for those intending to make an entry," he added.

In terms of countries and entire regions, the UK is the most attractive real estate market for investment in Europe (31 percent of respondents), followed by Germany (27 percent) and Central and Eastern Europe (19 percent), the CBRE study said.

wbj/article-58347-warsaw-nabs-no-2-spot-in-europe-for-property-investment-attractiveness.html

cms 9 | 1,254

8 Mar 2012 #489

I don't remember agreeing to that source - thought it was oferty.pl. Bit I'm too pissed to look for the post.

Anyway, yes you are ahead at the moment.

Harry

8 Mar 2012 #490

^ Demand for apartments low in Poland's main cities

cms 9 | 1,254

8 Mar 2012 #491

Use you are quite right sir. But its early doors.

Krakman 4 | 58

9 Mar 2012 #492

Plenty of (well educated) people in Britain are on £6 - £7 per hour too. The balance between wages and housing, for the average person, is sheer lunacy in Britain. My example of GBP100,000 for a flat in Krakow, was for a new flat in a nice area. Plenty of older type 'kamienicy plu??' are available for lower prices. I'm not sure what relevance Britain in 1990 has to Poland 2012. I was comparing Britain 2012 to Poland 2012 and simply pointing out I think it's easier to climb onto the property ladder in Poland when compared to Britain. This must be true for British and Polish people.

The parents of a friend of mine recently sold their house.

I suppose they justified it by saying "We were on 10 bob/50p a week back then and you could have bought 10,000 Mars bars for that money". :) The old banknotes must have been huge!! Apparently, it was possible to buy a whole street, and still have enough money left to decorate for a fiver!!

ladykangaroo - | 165

9 Mar 2012 #493

The balance between wages and housing, for the average person, is sheer lunacy in Britain

There is a nice table showing how many sq m in the city centre can be bought with the average yearly salary:
egospodarka.pl/56012,Zarobki-w-Europie-a-metraz-mieszkania,1,39,1.html

(column 1: average salary p.a; column 2: average salary in the capital city; column 3: price of 120sqm apartment; column 4: how many sqm one gets with the average salary)

There isn't much difference between UK and Poland. And both countries score really bad.

Krakman 4 | 58

9 Mar 2012 #494

I believe the Polish average wage has risen since then (2008) alongside the property market taking a slight fall too. I wonder how updated figures would read.

delphiandomine 88 | 18,131

9 Mar 2012 #495

Wages have gone up considerably since then - an 8% rise in December was seen, for instance.

milky 13 | 1,656

12 Mar 2012 #496

In which sector, or overall?? Can you show a link??
Anyone got a link for sales in 2012?

cms 9 | 1,254

13 Mar 2012 #497

The year on year rise was 4,5% and that is the relevant figure.

The 8% is a month on month rise compared to November - of course its higher every year as people get their christmas bonus.

OP peterweg 37 | 2,311

13 Mar 2012 #498

Eight years of saving (earnings) to buy an apartment in Warsaw

Home Broker has compared apartment prices in various Polish cities with the incomes of their residents. The results are not too optimistic, especially for those who live in Sopot. The average citizen of this popular tourist destination earns nearly zł.2,800 per month. Such a person would need to save for 11.6 years before he or she could afford a two-room apartment at an average cost of zł.390,000, Rzeczpospolita reported, citing Home Broker's survey.

And this means saving every single złoty you earn. It gets slightly better in Warsaw where the average net salary is about zł.3,300 and the average cost of a two-room apartment is less than zł.320,000. Eight years of saving and you can have it.

Katowice turned out to be the clear winner of the ranking. Local residents, with their average income at zł.3,200 per month, would need to save for fewer than four years since a two-room apartment there can be bought for as little as zł.144,000.

wbj/article-58421-eight-years-of-saving-to-buy-an-apartment-in-warsaw.html

pip 10 | 1,658

13 Mar 2012 #499

In any tourist destination anywhere in the world the prices are inflated compared to the residents income. This is nothing new. Zakopane is also expensive. Why should Poland not follow trends that the rest of the world follows?

milky 13 | 1,656

13 Mar 2012 #500

Can you explain cms, I'm lost with your statement.

delphiandomine 88 | 18,131

13 Mar 2012 #501

The results are not too optimistic, especially for those who live in Sopot.

So in other words, people living in tourist destinations earning service industry wages can't afford to buy a property. And what is new there?

Harry

13 Mar 2012 #502

During the season a one-bedroom flat in Sopot will rent at 2,500zl per week. Outside the season more like 1,500zl per week.

OP peterweg 37 | 2,311

13 Mar 2012 #503

So in other words, people living in tourist destinations earning service industry wages can't afford to buy a property. And what is new there?

Nothing new, just utterly bonkers.

In Warsaw a small property costs eight times average earnings. In Katowice its four times earnings, so the cheapest town in Poland is comparable to the UK average P/E ratio, and Sopot has property three times the UK average.

London, the most expensive city in the UK and arguably Europe has significantly more affordable property (6.4x earning) than Warsaw, even though London is a safe haven investment for the world and much lower interest rates,.

mortgageguideuk.co.uk/blog/house-prices/house-prices-income

Harry

13 Mar 2012 #504

London, the most expensive city in the UK and arguably Europe has significantly more affordable property (6.4x earning) than Warsaw

Only because the average is dragged so far down by the inner-city sink estate toilets where packs of feral children roam.

Wedle 15 | 490

13 Mar 2012 #505

H, you can get a nice house for 500,000 GBP in London, try finding the same quality house in Warsaw for the same price within a similar middle class district?

OP peterweg 37 | 2,311

13 Mar 2012 #506

Only because the average is dragged so far down by the inner-city sink estate toilets where packs of feral children roam.

Utterly irrelevant, its why averages are used.

Besides, a two bed house in a 'feral' central London location still costs £200K

Avalon 4 | 1,067

13 Mar 2012 #507

Besides, a two bed house in a 'feral' central London location still costs £200K

Only because the rents are paid by the government.

Harry

13 Mar 2012 #508

Besides, a two bed house in a 'feral' central London location still costs £200K

But one can get a one-bedroom flat in Greenwich for £63,000.

Only because the rents are paid by the government.

Going to be very interesting to see how the new housing benefit cap affects property prices in London.

milky 13 | 1,656

13 Mar 2012 #509

London, the most expensive city in the UK and arguably Europe has significantly more affordable property (6.4x earning) than Warsaw, even though London is a safe haven investment for the world and much lower interest rates,.

You are 100% correct. It is crazy.

Avalon 4 | 1,067

13 Mar 2012 #510

I think the government has said that as from April, the ones in accommodation of more than 400 pounds per week will have six months to find alternative, cheaper, places to live. As you said, that should be fun, especially with the Olympics pushing the prices up.