As far though as Sweden is concerned, if only to return to the topic post, she is having a belly full of the whole migrant issue and might soon follow the conservative JOBBIK party, the PEGIDA and AfD along with the rest of the far-right groups on the continent of Europe before long.
Liberalism has been fraying at the edges for some time now!
Those are not the far right groups. The _Real_ and _scary_ far right groups are the ones that will emerge if groups like AfD are marginalized and artificially kept out of power by all the other parties ganging up against them (or phony measures like the delayed presidential electin in Austria).
The EU is going out of its way to signal that peaceful change is impossible.
Don't you dare act surprised if things get violent as a result.
Those are not the far right groups. The _Real_ and _scary_ far right groups are the ones that will emerge if groups like AfD are marginalized
Well put
The main reason BRExit and Trump occurred is economy/jobs. Is Greek 'Golden Dawn' not credited with being one of the first (actual) mainstream Far-Right groups. No surprise, economy was a big piece of the puzzle.
So when do these European nations currently practicing demographic replacement - hit their economic bar? Sweden, Belgium, and Germany. Merkel promises to not raise taxes because of the Migrant Crisis and has not yet so far. But my understanding is she is taking from a jar that accumulated "extra?" funds. The expectation was these would be spent on improving education and infrastructure. I imagine one could argue they are indeed helping education but I would remark it's not being used on those that paid to accumulate the extra funds
"The main reason BRExit and Trump occurred is economy/jobs."
No it wasn't. All analyses agree that Brexit occurred because of 'sovereignty' (nationalism) and 'immigration'. Those were the two issues that came highest in polls of leave voters.
The economy was actually a campaigning issue for Remain (arguing it would suffer with Brexit). Leave didn't campaing on the economy as all economists said that the economy would suffer after Brexit happens. At the time of the referendum the UK unemployment was at an historical low, there was a skills shortage and recored numbers of job vacancies unable to be filled - hardly a bleak economy driving people to the right.
Less than a third of Leavers primarily voted due to the economy, and less than a quarter because of inequality/poverty (i.e. jobs/wages).
Data here:
So the reason for Brexit was certainly not jobs or economy. It was immigration and nativism. These were also major campaigning issues for Trump, although the economy did feature in his campaign too.
he main reason BRExit and Trump occurred is economy/jobs.
Actually I think the common denominator for a whole lot of things from Occupy Wall Street, Bernie Sanders, Brexit, Donald Trump and Golden Dawn are a grassroots rejection of a certain type of technocracy that does not take human nature into account.
The terrible effects of neoliberalism and multiculturalism are symptoms of the technocratic mindset that people all over the west are rejecting.
All those things are just good old tribal identity politics, manipulating basic human emotions of territoriality and 'tribe'. It's a very simple tactic used by every rabble rouser and despot since the year dot: first identify your tribe ('us'), then identify people who are not you ('them'), define some sort of injustice that reinforces this identity and defines your tribe as the heroes/victims and the other as the enemy (they stole our land, they took our jobs, they don't believe in our god), then identify yourself as the 'chosen one' who will safeguard your tribe by fighting this 'enemy' you've created.
It's the same tactic used by Trump (Mexicans, the 'elite'), Brexit (the EU, immigrants, the 'elite'), Golden dawn (ditto), Occupy (bankers, capitalists, the 'elite'), the left (the right), the right (the left), Putin (the west), nazis (Jews), Israel (Hamas), Isis (everyone), Kaczynski (everyone who doesn't vote PiS), football fans (any other team but theirs), cowboys (Indians) and Indians (cowboys).
There is nothing special or unique about the current times, it's just some people using other people's fears and emotions to elevate themselves to some sort of power. Always an odd and ridiculous man, isn't it? Hitler, Stalin, Farage, Trump, Kim Jong-un, Kaczynski. And it works if enough of society allows it and the Dear Leader surrounds himself with weak but loyal lackeys (nazis, communists, Brexit, PiS).
But ultimately it always collapses because tribalism means warfare or blowing your economy on the threat of it (Soviet union), economic isolation and blockade (N Korea), and authoritarian oppression to maintain the tribe identity by crushing any dissent, which ultimately fails (e.g. Solidarity) or drags the country into war with these other tribes (Serbia, 1940s Germany).
Kaczynski's authoritarian project will also fail eventually, for the same reasons, because his narrow vision of Poland can only be imposed in full by oppressing the those Poles who don't share it (abortion, atheism, liberalism etc) and isolating himself further (EU, NATO), requiring ever more money to fund defence and increasingly desperate bribes of the populace. One can only hope that he fails before he takes Poland fully down one of the destructive paths of war, isolation or economic collapse.
Societies are generally safer when they are inclusive and form broad alliances (EU, USA, UK) than when they go so far down the road of tribalism and identity politics that they find themselves isolated by their own narrow ideologies (North Korea, nazi Germany).
You don't buy the destructive seduction of tribalism? Think of football. Ever seen footballs fans fighting over the 'pride' of their tribe (team)? What are they fighting over, exactly? Territory? No. Resources? No. Freedoms? No. Just the simple idea that they are one tribe and another tribe is an enemy. A meaningless identity. Scale that emotional manipulation up to a country, and you have Putin's Russia, Hitler's Germany, Orban's Hungary, Brexit Britian, Trump's wall, Soviet Poland...and maybe soon Kaczynski's Poland.
All those things are just good old tribal identity politics, manipulating basic human emotions of territoriality and 'tribe'.
aka "human nature"
tribalism means warfare or blowing your economy on the threat of it
while technocrats (like Merkel) are busy blowing their economies on migrants who will never be able to contribute economically the countries they live in...
Human nature is what it is and it's not easy to change according to the whims of technocrats.
The highest standards of living in the world (for the broadest portions of society) were all about prioritizing citizens over non-citizens (US, UK, Japan, Canada et al). If you can't prioritize citizens the why ahve countries?
And if you don't have countries that means no public education or healthcare just every dog for himself which leads to a return to clannish tribalism as groups of people band together to protect themselves.
There is no escaping the human preference for group loyalties.
Merkel's mismanaged the whole migrant question abysmally, and again, it'll probably cost her the election next year! Lofgren's also struggling with the same problems, I take it.
>The highest standards of living in the world (for the broadest portions of society) were all about prioritizing >citizens over non-citizens (US, UK, Japan, Canada et al). If you can't prioritize citizens the why ahve countries?
You're implying that non-citizens can't quickly becomes citizens. Three of those four countries you mention are immigrant countries, and the one that isn't has the worst economy that's been stalled for 10 years.
Think of the USA, or the Roman Empire, or even the British Commonwealth/Empire - they engender a sense of belonging that contains multiple identities - you can be a black muslim Scottish Briton, or a white secular Cornish English Briton. It's only when you aren't inclusive to multiple identities or pressure too hard for conforming assimilation that you create your own internal enemies. Or worse, when a majority decides to reject a minority from their tribe and then persecute them (German jews, Ugandan Asians, Serbian muslims, Iraqi christians). Kaczynski is heading down that road with his 'worse sort of Poles' comments, and the 'Poland for the Poles' rhetoric (which means white, Catholic, socially conservative - but what if you're an atheist liberal arab born in Warsaw?).
>And if you don't have countries that means no public education or healthcare just every dog for >himself which leads to a return to clannish tribalism as groups of people band together to protect themselves
Of course you have countries, but that basically defines the group that pays into the system and is looked after by the system (taxation, healthcare, public transport, citizenship). There's nothing in a country-based system that has to mean ethnicity, religion, social views (within the non-extreme standards). Leaders like Stalin, Hitler, Trump and Kaczynski reject plurality or identity. They and their follows aren't happy with just defining themselves, they want to impose that definition on others too, to appeal to one subsection of society at the expense of another - in other words setting up an enemy to knock down.
For example, what does it matter to Kaczynski if a non-Catholic in Poland wants to pay for an abortion? No, he wants to exert his power, his identity on all others, eradicating any type of plurality in society. To him there is only one kind of 'true Pole', his sub-tribe of white Catholic conservatives. By trying to 'purify' a country all you do is end up crushing dissent and oppress people's plurality of identity and freedom to differ. I'd have thought that Poland had enough of that under Communist times.
Yes, human nature is tribal, but human nature is also individualistic, and nobody wants to be told what they have to be in order to be a 'right kind of Pole'. Authoritarian systems always fail, because that too is against human nature. You need a balance inbetween, and currently PiS is swinging much too far in one direction.
>Merkel's mismanaged the whole migrant question abysmally, and again, it'll probably >cost her the election next year! Lofgren's also struggling with the same problems, I take it.
Yes, mismanaged, but that's not to say that closing borders like Poland and Hungary wasn't also mismanagement. That damaged their international reputation. Proportionately controlled immigration is an inherently good thing for any country, it makes them more dynamic and boost international trade and alliances. It's easier for two countries to trade and harder to go to war when some of your citizens have multiple identities that include both.
Although the (im)migrants perhaps oughtn't have been allowed in in the first place, allowed in they were and the countries simply must find a humane means of discouraging wanton abuse of the system!
What that solution would be, I honestly can't say unfortunately. I do know that glib answers to complex questions in the end help nobody:-)
Quite, it needed a coordinated and humane response. But becasue of the tribal identity politics running riot in some nations, such as Poland, Hungary the UK, it was left to others like Germany and Italy to try and manage a humane situation on their own. Hence the humanity of Merkel is her undoing. Maybe her conscience just wouldn't let her say no? It may be naive, but I think that makes her a better human being than it does Orban or Poland's Poison Dwarf. I know who I'd rather trust babysitting my kids.
Merkel's humanity is her generation's attempt to "undo" the unspeakably horrific past with which she has had to contend. Now, the pendulum has swung too far left.
Three of those four countries you mention are immigrant countries
The period of greatest prosperity of the US coincides with historically low levels of immigration. And becoming a citizen meant shedding most of your previous loyalties. Most importantly it meant that adult immigrants agreed to let their children be socialized in the values of the new environment and not in those of their homelands. That's over.
There's nothing in a country-based system that has to mean ethnicity, religion, social views
Yeah, sub-saharan African countries don't have those and look how well they work out!
that's not to say that closing borders like Poland and Hungary wasn't also mismanagement
Which city had a nicer New Year's Eve, Budapst or Cologne? A large majority of the Merkeljugend are low social capital economic migrants and not refugees in any real sense.
Yeah, but one mismanaged mass influx doesn't mean that the whole idea of immigration or even multiculturalism is a bad idea. Germany has its social problems resulting from some tensions, but then so does Poland from its authoritarianism and lack of diversity (of culture, people - ideas and dynamism).
Poland would clearly benefit economically and socially from a greater diversity of almost everything. Not that there's necessarily anything 'wrong' with what's already there, but there is a stagnation and risk of fossilisation and isolationism which might suit the Catholic church in maintaing its grip on the sheeple it considers 'theirs', but all those people and women (mostly younger generation) marching on the streets clearly want more choice and diversity of ideas in society.
Poland from its authoritarianism and lack of diversity (of culture, people - ideas and dynamism).
Poland can see the mess that multiculturalism has made in countries like Sweden, France, UK and Germany , the Polish people do not want to go down this road, nothing to do with racism , all to do about national identity and culture, some immigration can be useful, but we must be sure we do not create a clash of cultures as is plain to see in other countries
I must say from personal experience it is good to live in a country where we do not suffer multi culti racial tensions, riots and murders,
we do not have to cater for special dietary requirements or produce documents in multiple languages, we do not need a mass of translators in our schools, hospitals and government offices.
As a result life is very peaceful and straightforward here.
Poland can see the mess that multiculturalism has made in countries like Sweden, France, UK and Germany
How many Polish people have not worked in one of these countries or have friends or family members who have? Too many people think that Polish people are unworldly and xenophobic on the issue of multiculturalism - the truth is they've seen it (without the buffering that the chattering classes experience) and don't like it and don't want it come to Poland.
and don't like it and don't want it come to Poland.
If you look at the prison statistics in Sweden, France UK,Germany you will see a disproportionate amount of ethnic minorities in jail.
You may ask yourself why is this? ,I suggest it is wrong to simply say that ethnic minorities commit a disproportional number of crimes , I think it is due to the failure the successive governments of the host nations to manage and integrate minorities.
Until a solution is found to this kind of problem I don't blame Poland or the Polish people if they have their concerns, I do that's for sure.
I don't blame Poland or the Polish people if they have their concerns,
Because you're sane. It takes a person who is insane or lying to themselves to look at what's happened in Westen Europe and conclude that large scale muslim immigration was a good idea. Rampant ghettoization, dismal results in education and employment, overrepresentation in all sorts of crime, especially sexual violence - and some people want more or it and want Poland to join in.
>all to do about national identity and culture >As a result life is very peaceful and straightforward here.
Great so long as you fit in to that narrow identity, then you're happy. But what if you don't? What if you're a gay Pole, or a Tartar, or come from a mixed family and so have several identities? What if you're one those German-speaking Poles in the west? Who is to say what Polish "identity and culture" actually is? Kaczynski? He thinks he does, but then why are so many people protesting? They clearly have a different idea of Polish identity to him. But his govt is enforcing his identity onto them.
So even without immigration countries have to be very careful about trying to fossilise or enforce a social culture, but that inevitably means oppressing someone. And the stricter your definition then the more people are oppressed.
And I know quite a few Poles who love being in the UK becasue of the diversity of cultures and identities they can experience, from restaurants to music and festivals. In Poland it can be trouble even to say you're an atheist, and I know families where the relatives don't speak to a man/woman because they are divorced (against Catholic doctrine). Such narrow cultural identities ruins lives, and can be dangerous.
It does not have to be an all or nothing, there IS a middle ground. Arguably Merkel and PiS are both on the wrong sides of it.
> that large scale muslim immigration was a good idea
Do you think large scale Caribbean or Anglo or Irish immigration into Poland would be a good idea?
After all, you specify muslims, but Western Europe has also seen alrge scale Polish immigration, which was a factor in the Brexit vote (not muslims). Is it just muslims you and PiS don't want, or anybody? Who WOULD be welcome for large scale immigration (let's say on a similar level to the UK, around a million people)?
>Why don't you go to Saudi Arabia and preach them this kind of stuff?
Because Poland's closer, and I see little difference between Islamic and Catholic doctrines. They're really quite similar in their demand for obediance and social control.
Ill-informed that Poland's not closer to me? How can you possibly know.
Let's see: one religion is monotheistic, has a book as a holy text, stems from the Middle East, is male-oriented (run by men only), is against abortion and contraception, is socially conservative against homosexuality, likes a lot of gold in their temples, and tends to be dominant in countries with smaller economies.
I see little difference between Islamic and Catholic doctrines. They're really quite similar
So the penalty for leaving Catholocism is death? Catholic women aren't allowed to marry non-Catholics? Female catholics are only able to inherit half as much as men? Who knew?
There are various forms of islam, and various sects, they're not all of the Isis type. Plenty of muslims in mixed marriages across the world, plenty of ex-muslims too.
Just as you wouldn't want anyone to judge Catholicism by the Spanish Inquisition or paedophilia Priests in South America, so it wouldn't be sensible to judge all muslims by Iran and Saudi Arabia.
But islam and catholicism as doctrines do have a lot more in common than catholicism and secularism or Buddhism.
