Would Russia really send troops if pushes come to shove?
That's a good question. If they do, then we got two Russian military actions going on at the doorstep of Poland and the EU, and this one would be at the invitation of the Belrussian gov. One would think such friendliness would allow Russian operatives to roam anywhere in Belarus, even, say ,at the Polish border--might even take a day trip across the border.
The EU (Poland too) is not recognizing the outcome of the latest Belarus election...meaning Lukashenko.
Canada also has officially refused to recognize and the US has said it wasn't a free and fair election, so pressure is mounting. I don't see Lukashenko ceding power, so that Russian support looms even larger day by day.
Today, the EU has to solve other problems than worry about Belarus and their European aspirations.
But, what about Russian inetrvention within Belarus? Wouldn't that change the equation for Poland? If so, then Belarus is worthy of a solution now so as to blunt any such intervention from happening in the (near) future wouldn't you say?