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What should Poland do with the problem of Belarus?


AntV 2 | 273
21 Aug 2020 #91
so when Lukashenka...calls for Russian troops to deal with too much unrest...society will not oppose it. They will be unhappy but won`t fight...

And, that's the point of concern. If Russia did intervene, they wouldn't do it for free. They'd make demands that would help further their desire for regional supremacy. Belarus would (if Russia desired) become the launching pad to attempt to invoke some kind of turmoil in Poland, Estonia, Lithuania, and/or Latvia. So, it'd seem that it is something Poland should be concerned about and prepare some kind of deterrent or response. I wouldn't over-react but I sure as hell wouldn't be cavalier about it either.
Crow 139 | 8,302
21 Aug 2020 #92
If Russia did intervene, they wouldn't do it for free.

Russia was content with UKRPOLBAT project. Russia never confronted Visegrad have closer ties with Ukraine, Serbia and Belarus. Then, NATO continued encircling Russia and EU continued to serve as tool of German supremacy. Balance was destroyed in Ukraine, as previously in Yugoslavia and that was end of UKRPOLBAT that was defectively canceled by pro-German banderist regime in Ukraine. Then happened Crimea and deepening complications with EU. Parallel with it goes Kosovo, Syria, etc global areas of conflicts.

Now, Belarus. How I see things, if things escalate, Russia would react lethally. Russia do it to show that it is able to stop NATO and EU. What else Russia can do? They are pushed too far.

With it, I don`t advocate Lukashenko (far from it) but, for sure, we all knows how EU, Vatican and NATO works. Dirty. This isn`t about `democracy` for EU. Its about control and Geo-strategy.

I would later give you YouTube link of that video.

video on 15:51 >>>> Where Serbian FM Ivica Dacic connects Belarus opposition Tichanovskaya with her support to Grater Albania >>> youtube.com/watch?v=nXhFgLzsIq4
Crow 139 | 8,302
21 Aug 2020 #93
And when Russia react utterly lethally, NATO and EU collapse in an instant. Then there would be wide region full of countries and Russia. In Multi-Polar world.

What then?

Let me tell you what then. Countries reform, cease to exist, new countries are born. New map of Europe.

We can love it or not but this is it. Do we want it? Do EU, Germany and western Europe ask us when they push things? No, they don`t ask us.

Why do you think Trump distancing himself from NATO, EU and western Europe? He knows that USA won`t go to nuclear war when things escalate. USA won`t bleed for Germanic greed.
AntV 2 | 273
21 Aug 2020 #94
@Crow

Uhhh...well, you definitely get points for thinking outside the box.
Bratwurst Boy 7 | 10,434
22 Aug 2020 #95
He knows that USA won`t go to nuclear war when things escalate. USA won`t bleed for Germanic greed.

So...Russia could threaten Poland with nukes and you think it is better when the US do nothing when things escalate?

Btw....Nawalny is on his way to Berlin, so I've just read...
Crow 139 | 8,302
22 Aug 2020 #96
So...Russia could threaten Poland with nukes

Russia won`t threaten Poland. I don`t see it as reality. Why threaten Poland? Poland isn`t leading EU or NATO country, don`t creates politics and don`t make crucial decisions. Plus, its a Slavic populace. Didn`t Putin said, Russia's military doctrine is to hit decision makers if come to nuclear conflict.

Be realistic regarding possible scenario. Belarus is close and have strategic value but its not Russia (not yet anyway). So, if these days happens EU/NATO provocations, if some troops enter Belarus, what is very unlikely scenario, Russia would use conventional weapons only. Just then, if hostilities escalate, nukes running for great centers. Brussels have symbolic weight and I think Brussels will be first to learn how it was in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. That could be solid warning and that is the moment when NATO and EU cease to exist (in that hypothetical scenario).

Now, I don`t believe EU/NATO push things that far to enter Belarus, like they entered Yugoslavia. Or, what we know about entering? Countries can send soldiers in different uniforms. Hitler himself started war with the deception. Is NATO-Russia war really that unlikely scenario?

Btw....Nawalny is on his way to Berlin, so I've just read...

Interesting, isn`t it. Russia do need reforms. And those reforms have to be orchestrated from Germany? Like Lenin?

Isn`t it little bit risky to try similar scenario again? Germany also needs reforms. Again.
Bratwurst Boy 7 | 10,434
22 Aug 2020 #97
Russia won't threaten Poland. I don't see it as reality.

Poland IS in EU and NATO, Crowie....

When you talk about a conflict between Russia and EU/NATO (and their consequential collapse of course) you talk about a conflict with Poland (and its consequential collapse of course). There is no other way.

If the US stays out of it they will let Poland hang out to dry....special relationship with Trump or not!

Like Lenin?

As far as I see it Nawalny is on its way OUT of Russia, not on his way IN to Russia! :)

Germany also needs reforms.

Surely!

Both, Russia and Germany (and Belarus come to think of), need to limit the time someone is allowed to rule the country...
Crow 139 | 8,302
22 Aug 2020 #98
Poland IS in EU and NATO, Crowie....

Let me remind you, Poland is older then EU and NATO.

As far as I see it Nawalny is on its way OUT of Russia, not on his way IN to Russia! :)

Morning news says flight is postponed. Supposedly on demand of German syndicate. How hilarious.

Both, Russia and Germany (and Belarus come to think of), need to limit the time someone is allowed to rule the country...

Exactly. Many in Europe, even more then Belarus. Just think of Greece or Italy. Mind blowing, even to think of them, isn`t it, if we are to be honest.

Now, speaking of Belarus, I think that ALL need peaceful fall of Lukashenko. He too often had conflicts even with Putin.

Why then we talk about global conflict over Belarus? Because its not about Lukashenko or democracy, as I said. Its about what after Lukashenko.
Bratwurst Boy 7 | 10,434
22 Aug 2020 #99
Morning news says flight is postponed. Supposedly on demand of German syndicate. How hilarious.

Well...he is already landed in Tegel and on his way to the Charitè...

I think that ALL need peaceful fall of Lukashenko.

Agreed! Especially the people in Belarus....and they should decide who comes after him, nobody else, not Putin and not the EU!
mafketis 24 | 8,743
22 Aug 2020 #100
One video pointed out that unlike Ukraine there were no (or extremely few) EU flags in the Belarus protests... I hadn't noticed but when I checked, that was indeed the case.

Some interviewed strikers were painfully naive (reminding me of the attitudes of some in places like Poland in 1989 who assumed that after dumping communism they would reach prosperity in a few months...).

I wish the Belarusians well and hope they can avoid being reasorbed/annexed by the rapacious Russian empire...
Bratwurst Boy 7 | 10,434
22 Aug 2020 #101
One video pointed out that unlike Ukraine there were no (or extremely few) EU flags in the Belarus protests

Yeah....the EU was no big player in Ukraine, and she won't be a big help in Belarus either. The people there seem to know that...
mafketis 24 | 8,743
22 Aug 2020 #102
the EU was no big player in Ukraine

Well the 2014 protests began with the government snubbing the EU in favor of Russia (though I've heard EU enthusiasm has cooled a lot since then).

The difference is that Ukraine has .... European (if not EU anymore) aspirations while Belarus.... doesn't.
Crow 139 | 8,302
22 Aug 2020 #104
What aspirations? Visegrad, of course. Maiden disrupted this process but, that`s it. Ask majority of Belorussians and they will refuse EU (and NATO) and give chance to Visegrad. If Visegrad have potential to be on its own, out of EU and NATO.
Ironside 49 | 10,481
22 Aug 2020 #105
What aspirations do they have?

Who exactly?
Those who can take over the country are rather pro-Russian. The thing is there is not some unfired strong forces that would take the country into other direction. As for keeping it in the middle Lukashenko was the best. Why try to topple him?

It is not in Poland's best interest.
Unless there is some cunning plan at hand I don't know about but somehow I doubt it.
Most likely there was some unrest - a large one in Belarus and bureaucrats just automatically jumped to execute some half-baked a long forgotten plan to support it.

The worst part is that politicians must have given it a green light.
Meaning clueless morons are in charge or a the very least reckless pen pushers.
--
Talking more about Poland here as for Germany it is not a big issue one way or the other.
mafketis 24 | 8,743
22 Aug 2020 #106
What aspirations do they have?

Good question..... I know enough to not trust mass media reports (or what gets said to western reporters and I can't read Russian* to get a direct picture) and I haven't known enough Belarusians to get a fix.

The Belarusian economy has essentially been held in a Soviet bubble with huge swaths in publicly owned companies and any move toward the west would have an initial very hard landing....

*I like the Belarusian language, especially in the version written in latin script but Belarusians are a lot less enthusiastic...
Bratwurst Boy 7 | 10,434
22 Aug 2020 #107
Ask majority of Belorussians and they will refuse EU (and NATO)

I really don't think any of it is on the cards for Belarus anytime soon....(even if they wanted to).

Why try to topple him?

I can only think that a lot of Belorussians had been just put off by Lukashenkos latest election fraud...he must have overestimated his people's humour...

Talking more about Poland here as for Germany it is not a big issue one way or the other.

Agreed! The reactions in Berlin to the happenings in Belarus are only lukewarm and halfhearted blah at best...

and I haven't known enough Belarusians to get a fix.

...same here!
mafketis 24 | 8,743
22 Aug 2020 #108
a lot of Belorussians had been just put off by Lukashenkos latest election fraud...he must have overestimated his people's humour...

Stupidity and hubris.... had he faked a 52 % or so win a lot of people would be angry and there would be some protests probably but they would die down. Had he been really smart (since Belarus has a 'first past the post' system) he'd have faked a result where he had 47 or so percent, not a majority but more than anyone else.

But he's fixated on the 80% number (some early election which he probably did win by that margin)

Every population has their breaking point and he found the Belarusian breaking point. I'm sure he has some level of support (around 40 percent or so judging from several sources) but he humiliated the public.

The younger generation is a lot more western (in general) leaning than the older Russian leaning population so if he manages to hold on to power then Poland might reap the benefit of a non-trivial number of smart young Belarusians (unless there's a crackdown on the border which I can see a Soviet fossil like Lukaszenka going for).
Crow 139 | 8,302
22 Aug 2020 #109
If Poland could be Poland, reformed, then, Poland would be interesting.
Bratwurst Boy 7 | 10,434
22 Aug 2020 #110
But he's fixated on the 80% number...

I think such numbers are giving most people goosebumps (and bad memories)...
pawian 173 | 12,728
22 Aug 2020 #111
Belarus would (if Russia desired) become the launching pad to attempt to invoke some kind of turmoil in Poland, Estonia, Lithuania, and/or Latvia.

That wouldn`t be only a clash with the aforementioned countries but with the EU and NATO as well. At last we could check out what NATO`s promises to defend their members are worth. hahaha

If Belarus, instigated by Russia, causes any turmoil, NATO will have to react somehow, e.g., by increasing its forces in Poland. Then, Russia will feel compelled to answer this move and so on.... I don `t think The Kremlin is ready for such a confrontation. The sanctions imposed on them in 2014 for invading Ukraine have been quite painful.
Crow 139 | 8,302
22 Aug 2020 #112
The sanctions imposed on them in 2014 for invading Ukraine have been quite painful.

Yes, so painful that in the meanwhile occurred Brexit and people ask who is next to Exit. Not to mention that Trump happened and the USA giving up from NATO and EU.

Poland should make Polexit, distance itself from Vatican, move out from NATO, declare neutrality on global military alliances and work more on Visegrad. You want Belarus to come to you? And not only Belarus. You want a New Commonwealth and Poland as global power? This is the only way. All other ways are delusional.
pawian 173 | 12,728
22 Aug 2020 #113
distance itself from Vatican,

Some members of top Polish Church are already doing it - they openly resist certain guides from the Pope, e..g, the ones about fighting pedophilia etc.
AntV 2 | 273
22 Aug 2020 #114
The sanctions imposed on them in 2014 for invading Ukraine have been quite painful.

But, that's what makes them so dangerous. A rat is most aggressive when cornered. History has plenty examples of cornered rats causing a dustup that wasn't in their best interests. Best to keep reminding the rat of the danger its in and how it could get worse. Worse thing you can do is ignore the rat, IMO.
pawian 173 | 12,728
22 Aug 2020 #115
But, that's what makes them so dangerous. A rat is most aggressive when cornered.

yes, indeed, when cornered, dictatorships do crazy things. E..g, Argentinian junta, cornered by an economic crisis, started the war about the Falklands in 1982. The Kremlin might also try to divert their society`s attention from internal problems by another "Crimea recovery."

Shyt, we are stuck in this fekking part of Europe and can`t get out. hahahaha
Crow 139 | 8,302
22 Aug 2020 #116
You will get out when Muslims rebel on the west of Europe. Use your time and initiate Polexit when western Europe is preoccupied.

Some members of top Polish Church are already doing it

Thank God to that. Poland needs to separate Catholicism from the Vatican. Its not the same.
Ironside 49 | 10,481
22 Aug 2020 #117
I can only think that a lot of Byelorussians had been just put off by Lukashenko's latest election fraud.

Even so, that is their interval problem. Why bring sanctions and diplomatic action into the fry? To do nothing is actually in Poland's best interests. As Lukashenko's regime keeps things in balance. Once they kick the table Belarus can go either way, there is no way they can control it or predict it.

Unless 'they' have things under control - which I doubt.

Poland should make Polexit,

yep!

"distance itself from Vatican,"
dude let me tell you something you are a stubborn tool. F off from the Vatican it is not issue at all, beside in Poland only commies, soviets and all kind of processive trash would agree with you and those are totally against Polexit and Serbs and all things you spam PF with. So wake up and smell the coffee will you!!!

move out from NATO

sure but not just yet ...

Beside there are other way to bring Belarus into the fold. Thing is in Poland there are wrong kind of peps in power.
Crow 139 | 8,302
22 Aug 2020 #118
@Ironside

I see that you disagree with me in a very few things. Give yourself time.

there is no way they can control it or predict it

Do you say that things in Belarus won`t go as it is agreed between Russia and USA? There is no point on the globe where they aren`t in agreement. Or where they won`t be in agreement before dust settle down. And it is good. For all of us.

@call1n

Am I sensing that you worry for Poland because of events in Belarus, dobri brate? But why worry? My country continuing to receive shipments of most heavy weaponry from Russia via Poland`s air space. Not a single disruption since started tensions in Belarus. Even shipment of weaponry from Belarus that we bought are confirmed via Poland`s air space. So, no worry. Forget daily politics. Will be peace on Poland`s eastern borders. Non would upset children of Poland.
Bratwurst Boy 7 | 10,434
23 Aug 2020 #119
Next step in the game:

Blaming NATO for calling up his own military!

Possible step after that:

Using his own troops to "rescue" Belarus from foreign invaders (NATO) / aka forcefully suppressing protests...asking comrade Putin for help (optional).

Claims by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko that "foreign powers" are organising a build-up of troops on the country's border are baseless, says Nato.

bbc.com/news/world-europe-53877953
Mr Grunwald 23 | 1,662
23 Aug 2020 #120
Thanks @Crow
Let us not derrail the topic at hand tho, I honestly hope for Belarus to be independent. However, who could provide that for Belarussia? It's people alone? The opposition leader? I have a hard time picturing a women being able to keep Putin at bay


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