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Predictions about Poland for 2013


poland_
8 Jan 2013  #1
Here are my predictions for 2013 in Poland.

1. 2013 will be another year when the Polish public debt will be edging on 55% of the GDP. The threshold will probably not be surpassed (according to the bean counters)

2. Risk of a budget amendment resulting from a slowdown deeper than assumed by the government, together with the end of the interest rate cutting cycle by the MPC may prompt some holders of the Polish bonds to take profits.

3. The FX market sees a correction of the Polish currency. This risk is real in 1Q2013 with the average annual EURPLN rate projected at 4.15.
4. Polish real estate prices will deflate further.
5. Poland may also offer a similar residency incentive as Spain for investors in the Polish real estate market.

Try to keep your predictions real and achievable _ let the game begin.
ismellnonsense
8 Jan 2013  #2
2. Risk of a budget amendment resulting from a slowdown deeper than assumed by the government, together with the end of the interest rate cutting cycle by the MPC may prompt some holders of the Polish bonds to take profits.

could be as the government could gain a lot by emergency constitutionally mandated measures

such as cutting krus

pln eur exchange is interesting
i personally think its undervalued and should be at 3.7/8

poland may become a place to invest for those with cash under the table if prices keep falling

2013 is not an election year
jon357 63 | 14,122
8 Jan 2013  #3
such as cutting krus

I think there's a good chance this will happen. It certainly should happen.

Re. the currency. I'm not sure it's overvalued and as a major agricultural and light industrial exporter it's in everyone's interest that it doesn't happen. Should global food prices substantially increase though, they will have to try very hard to stop the zloty rising and I doubt in that circumstance that they'll try too hard.

I suspect that the number of foreclosures will increase this year. There will also be chaos after the meldunek system ends.

The gap between rich and poor will increase slightly and there will be an increase in people below the poverty line. Nevertheless, due to food exports and shale gas, there will be a slight increase in GDP per capita.
OP poland_
9 Jan 2013  #4
What about the economic migrants overseas?

Research from international money transfer service, Azimo.com, has uncovered that the average transaction sent to Poland each month totals £350]. In total, over £3 billion was sent to Poland from the UK in the last 12 months alone.
smurf 39 | 1,982
9 Jan 2013  #5
Chairman Jarek and Anna Grodzka will announce their public engagement in May 2013.

This will lead to the Christian right imploding and Poland will become a haven for gay rights activists & gay tourists wishing to get married here, tourism will boom and while at first people will be against it, soon the in flood of.millions of zlotys will change attitudes.......indeed there are plans afoot that will see Zabrze become the gay capital of Central Europe, much like San Francisco is in Western USA but with more coalmines.
milky 13 | 1,657
9 Jan 2013  #6
Unemployment predicted to reach 15% according to this week's Angora magazine.
gumishu 11 | 5,012
9 Jan 2013  #7
Chairman Jarek and Anna Grodzka will announce their public engagement in May 2013.

heh :) may's the month of love in Poland ;)

There will also be chaos after the meldunek system ends.

this is an idiotic move tbh - meldunek is not a major pain in the ass
milky 13 | 1,657
9 Jan 2013  #8
There will also be chaos after the meldunek system ends.

Why?
gumishu 11 | 5,012
9 Jan 2013  #9
you don't know Poland enough milky - when any major change is made in Poland there is a chaos - there is a fresh good example of introducing Koleje Śląskie instead of PKP Przewozy Regionalne in Śląsk

A SEVERE shortage of rolling stock has led to widespread replacement of train services with buses by Slaskie Railway (KS) which only started its new concession in the Polish province of Silesia with the start of the new timetable on December 9. Within the first of couple of days,

railjournal.com/index.php/main-line/train-shortage-plunges-new-polish-operator-into-chaos.html
Zibi - | 336
9 Jan 2013  #10
you don't know Poland enough milky

Another prophet of doom, aren't you?
gumishu 11 | 5,012
9 Jan 2013  #11
Zibi

how are courts and bailiffs supposed to find people when there is no meldunek any more.
Zibi - | 336
9 Jan 2013  #12
Let's wait and see. How do they do it in other countries? In my opinion institution of "meldunek" is unnecessary.
jon357 63 | 14,122
9 Jan 2013  #13
What about the economic migrants oversea's?

I doubt their remittances will increase, especially since the work situation in other places is bad at the moment.
OP poland_
9 Jan 2013  #14
About 800,000 Poles have recently arrived in Britain, and the total Polish population in the UK is on the rise. With little prospect of work back home and a free NHS in the UK, more Polish women are choosing to stay there to have children. You can now hear Polish on the streets of nearly every British city.

I was recently discussing the subject of Polish economic workers with business owners in both Spain and the UK. All informed me Polish workers have a good reputation in their industries. Moreover they are prepared to employ Poles equally to locally employed on the same salary and fixed period contract. They appreciate Polish workers are there to make money and work hard. In 2012 both Spain and the Uk have seen an increase of in Polish migrants. Based on this I believe the remittances will increase in 2013.

My prediction - In 2013 the Polish economic migrant will become a more treasured commodity for Pol Gov figures as remittances increase from overseas workers.
Cali - | 56
9 Jan 2013  #15
the total Polish population in the UK is on the rise

According to Manpower, Poland has a shortage of qualified labor. If properly re-trained, close to 600k jobs could be created. This might hold the flood to the UK, but, again, tha's a lot of people to retrain...plus the cost that could go along w/ that.
ismellnonsense
9 Jan 2013  #16
how are courts and bailiffs supposed to find people when there is no meldunek any more.

always thought the best solution was to have the meldunek
but
do away with the stupid bureaucracy attached

turn up, show ID, declare new address
job done and no messing around
like in finland and estonia

Let's wait and see. How do they do it in other countries? In my opinion institution of "meldunek" is unnecessary.

most countries do have it
except its much easier to deal with

one should be able to declare a permanent address and a current address

you don't know Poland enough milky - when any major change is made in Poland there is a chaos - there is a fresh good example of introducing Koleje Śląskie instead of PKP Przewozy Regionalne in Śląsk

anything is better than przewozy regionalne

Kolele Slaskie is doing well
other provinces will follow

then finally bye bye to przewozy regionalne
ruined by the unions
LEICA 4 | 18
9 Jan 2013  #17
The 3 billion pounds sent to Poland last year,was it sent by private people or does it include import costs ????????
OP poland_
10 Jan 2013  #18
This might hold the flood to the UK, but, again, tha's a lot of people to retrain...plus the cost that could go along w/ that.

Not to simplify, if you are Polish and wish to be part of the real estate boom -m would you choose 4 years in the Uk or 16 year's in PL to achieve your dream.

It is a lot of people to retrain, with a transient workforce you retrain and then the next wave are off. Poland have adopt rules on making grads work in PL for a set period or paying for their education.

The 3 billion pounds sent to Poland last year,was it sent by private people or does it include import costs ????????

It is Polish economic migrants sending money back from the UK. There are no import costs only transfer fees.
ShawnH 8 | 1,498
10 Jan 2013  #19
I predict "more of the same".

Some interesting comparisons with Latvia:

I'd like to do is briefly compare Latvia to Northern Europe's "soundest" and most resilient economy: Poland. While substantially different in size, Poland and Latvia, apart from being close to one another, both inherited woefully deficient institutions from communism and have struggled with many of the same economic ills over the past two decades. They have also adopted staggeringly different approaches to the crisis, one of which was a lot more effective than the other.

forbes.com/sites/markadomanis/2013/01/10/if-austerity-is-so-awesome-why-hasnt-poland-tried-it
Maybe 12 | 409
10 Jan 2013  #20
The fact that Poland has not yet adopted the Euro has been its saving grace.
rybnik 18 | 1,462
10 Jan 2013  #21
.......indeed there are plans afoot that will see Zabrze become the gay capital of Central Europe, much like San Francisco is in Western USA but with more coalmines.

Really???
got a link? (I've got family in that town)
jon357 63 | 14,122
10 Jan 2013  #22
About 800,000 Poles have recently arrived in Britain

I doubt that.

more Polish women are choosing to stay there to have children

They won't be sending much back, will they?

The job situation in the UK isn't good and with the forthcoming ConDem attacks on the welfare system and the low paid things will be harder for most migrant workers. I believe that remittances will decrease.
OP poland_
10 Jan 2013  #23
I have to take into consideration facts not gut feeling

case-research.eu/sites/default/files/publications/2012-12_Barbone.pdf

I doubt that.

Take it up with Agata Pyzik of the Guardian
jon357 63 | 14,122
10 Jan 2013  #24
Unfortunately the facts are that most European economies are in recession.
It would be good if you could cite some proof that:

About 800,000 Poles have recently arrived in Britain

Given that there were already 625,000 Poles in the UK who had arrived since EU entry (according to the 2011 census) and an estimated additional 45,000 arrived between the census day and September 2012 according to the Home Office and of course the UK economy is still contracting, one wonders what you think they're all doing.

45,000 isn't 800,000.

I suppose for some people hard data just isn't that important.
alexnye 2 | 30
10 Jan 2013  #25
I think population figures are hugely underestimated in Britain.

600,000 in England and Wales?? Seriously?
These kind of figures are the same that were floating around in 2007.

People estimate there's 200,000 Polish in Dublin.. What does that tell you?

2-3 Million in the UK
OP poland_
10 Jan 2013  #26
About 800,000 Poles have recently arrived in Britain, and the total Polish population in the UK is on the rise.

Here is the source article Jon.
guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/dec/12/poles-britain-cultural-splash
jon357 63 | 14,122
10 Jan 2013  #27
Unfortunately your 'source article' just seems to have pulled that figure from nowhere - it even contradicts itself by the source it links to!
OP poland_
10 Jan 2013  #28
as I previously mentioned if you have got an issue with the figures take it up with Agata Pyzik of the Guardian. Let us know how you got on.
jon357 63 | 14,122
10 Jan 2013  #29
Unfortunately, her figures come from nowhere. I prefer the official figures, which I cited above. Hard facts, not just someone's opinion.

They don't fit your 'argument', however if you have got an issue with the real figures, take it up with the Government. Let us know how you got on.
OP poland_
10 Jan 2013  #30
They don't fit your 'argument',

Wiktor Moszczynski of the Federation of Poles of Great Britain and an expert on Poles in the UK, would be the person to contact. He has studied the influx of Polish migrant workers over the years, he is also very active in the Polish community in Great Britain.


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