Predictions about Poland for 2013

In the absence of this person who you've strangely introduced to the discussion, you'll have to go with the official figures.

I would expect someone like you to be aware of wiktor.

As I say, the official figures are given on the previous page.

Interestingly, nowhere in the short YouTube clip you've dug up does he say


Better to stick with hard facts.

Jon357 how many Poles are in the Great Britain as of Jan 2013?

Are there any published figures for Jan 2013? Jan 2013 isn't even half way through yet! I'm surprised you need to as though, since I gave the latest figures here about an hour ago. Perhaps your short term memory is impaired. Or just selective.

Now how about something other than a journalist's private opinion to back up your assertion that


By the way, what do you regard as 'recently'? We know more or less how many came between census day 2011 and Sept, 2012. I would call that fairly recently.

Do you have figures from November 2012?

As I say, check out the previous page. But first, back up your assertion that

I have drafted an email to Wiktor and i will find the latest figures and sources circa 2013. Just for you - old boy.

You'll probably have to wait for a while to see figures for 2013. Out of interest, what made you think that:


?

Census statistics help paint a picture of the nation and how people live in the UK. They provide a detailed snapshot of the population and its characteristics, and underpin funding allocation to provide public services. Whie it is a legal requirement for everyone to complete the census, which takes place once every 10 years, with the last national survey conducted on 27 March 2011. The results are used to help plan public services, including school places, hospitals, and transport.Persistent refusal to complete the form can lead to prosecution and a fine of up to £1,000. But the Office for National Statistics, which organises the survey, admitted that while three million people failed to complete the 2001 census, only 38 were convicted.

Glen Watson, ONS census director, said the cost of the exercise was projected to reach £480 million this year, twice the total for the previous census in 2001.

This was largely because of inflation and the fact that there will be an estimated 3.5 million more people to count, largely as a result of immigration. "There has been as much population growth in the UK in the last 10 years as there had been in the previous three decades," he said. "It will have been the biggest 10-year growth that the country has ever seen. Two-thirds of that growth has come from migration, either as a direct result of migration or an indirect result of migration, with different fertility rates in migrant communities.

telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/8339114/UK-census-expected-to-cost-nearly-500m-due-to-translation-fees.html

In 2001, the population of the United Kingdom was recorded at just under 59 million people, according to the ONS 3 million people did not complete the census. Based on the ONS figures we have to consider the census to be inaccurate by at least 5% across the board, it is probable to accept in the migrant communities in the UK the percentage of people not completing the 2011 census could/will be higher than the national average of 5% in 2001. Also taking into consideration transient and seasonal polish workers, it is probable that there is or has been 800,000+ Polish born workers in the UK recently.

Jon357, what information do you have to prove there has not been 800,000+ Polish born workers in the UK recently other than the census 2011 from March 27, 2011. Which according to the ONS is not fully accurate. If you could provide a figure of Polish passport holders who have entered the UK and have not left the UK as of June 2012 that would be an paint an accurate picture in my opinion.

You've forgotten (or deliberately omitted) a couple of small but key words from that sentence. You originally said:


So, do you mean "have recently arrived" or "have been"?

There is a big difference.

This is the type of brow beating you are infamous for Jon357.

As a English teacher you want to hold onto one wordand squirm like a slippery pig, you have completely lost this debate jon35,

Now if you wish to discuss the difference between


and


be my guest, although at this point you start to become anal.

I have given you facts to back up the the possibility of the 800,000 + figure. You will need more than a figure which has been suggested by the ONS as being non - accurate.

Brow beating? I think there's a bloody big difference between "have been" and "have recently arrived". You don't need to be an English Teacher (by the way, I'm not one) to see the difference.

So, were you wrong when you said


or when you started to backpedal today and pretend you'd said


??

As for winning or losing a debate, I don't see a debate. Just a hugely incorrect statement that you made and were not prepared to retract, even when called out on it

The aforementioned is my quote.

The following is your cut and paste.


Give me accurate numbers and a qualified source as of june 2012 - stop avoiding the question.

Warszawski, your original claim, as you well know, was


Do you still stand by that rather wild assertion, or admit it was a mistake?

Re. your question, as I've said twice before and am quite happy to repeat, the official Home Office figure for the number of Polish citizens who arrived between Spring 2011 and Autumn 2012 is already on the previous page.

By the way, re. your "anal" comment, you do realise we're talking about economic statistics? Precision and clarity of thought are paramount. If you think accuracy is "anal", you may as well mix up GDP, QE, BoE, USD etc. After all, they've all got letters in them

A post already showed that 40000 Poles moved to the UK in 2012. The Polish population is still growing in the UK.
The actual figure of Poles in the UK is obviously much higher than official stats show.

from that article:


(editing error my ass)

It was also written by a Pole - Agata Pyzik


Recent in the context of that article means over the last few years, how many Poles in the UK John in your opinion? fcuk the official figures.

The article was written on the Wednesday 12 December 2012 , you disagree with 800,000+ as the Number of Polish passport holders living in the UK at the time of print. As you disagree with this number Jon357, I would like to know the number of Polish passport holders you believe to be living in the UK as of Wednesday 12 December 2012.

Time to put up or shut up jon357....

Zetha Ltd, an ethnic media agency from London, has just begun a survey among Polish community living in the UK. The survey, which is available online and in press is to be the largest-ever study of Poles in the UK conducted so far.

The aim of the “Poles in the UK 2012” survey is to gain insight about Poles living in the UK.

If I contact Agnieszka Jarosz, of Zetha Ltd and ask her to give her qualified opinion about the number of Polish passport holders living in the UK at the time of print. of the article, based on the research of “Poles in the UK 2012” survey. Jon 357 will you accept this?

Just a simple yes or no answer will suffice - then I will move into action mode.

please do

im very curious personally

could easily be well over a million and growing

As you well know, we aren't interested in the number of Poles in the UK. Nor are we interested in the number who moved to the UK since EU accession 8 years ago. We are interested in your statement


The Home office says 45,000 came between April 2011 and September 2012. Less than a tenth of the figure you said had recently arrived. The mistake you made is obvious. You included the entire post-EU entry figure.

Rather sad that you can't admit your error.

What that survey would add to more thoughtful census.

Question of interest:
Do worshipers of the legendary two millions have something to prove their beliefs other than gut feeling?

You are clutching at straws Jonboy, the article written in the guardian, it is obvious to all except you ' recently' means in recent years.


I guess it's your ball too....

The main problem I find with you Jon357 is you consider yourself to be some authority on all things Polish, you do not even live in Poland you are a transient who stays here in rented accommodation a few moths of the year. Now people like Harry,Pip, Richfilth are people who live in Warsaw. Wroclawboy also lives in London and he considers the number of Poles living in the UK to be above 800,000+.

Although I don`t agree with Jon many times , I have to admit that he is right . You , Warszawski , are quite wrong on the subject . The article refers to all Polish immigrants arrived in UK after 2004 . I do not understand why you are so willingly denying this obvious fact. What is the meaning of your senseless dispute over obvious data .

What data?

Re read the thread and then you will realize you are agreeing with me. Jon357 in his typical fashion is attempting to ' brow beat' the meaning of the word ' recently'.

He is not disagreeing with the number 800,000+ only throwing out - outdated census figures from 2011. The only way to know the number of Polish passport holders currently in the UK is quite simply to look at the number of Polish entrants and exits from the UK. The UK is not part of shengen and has closed borders therefore all entrants and exits are registered unlike Poland.

For the record I do not dislike Jon357, although I do find his ' brow beating' methods unacceptable and with out class.

not so

the uk only occasionally implements exit controls
API does not count such statistics
at least not available to the public

it has been said many times that they simply do not know who is in the country
not least because the irish, manx and channel islands frontiers are open and without checks

We are not discussing people smuggled to the UK, Polish passport holders are part of the EU 27 and can visit the UK freely without visa's. The UK is an Island and the UK border agency controls all inbounds and outbounds, when you buy an airline, train, coach, boat ticket for inbound or outbound to the uk all of the information you provide with your passport details are monitored, therefore the UK border agency have access to this data, I would also expect HMRC to have access to this data also.

no need to smuggle
the common travel area borders are wide open
ireland does not share information with the uk
no controls on the land border

one can easily enter the uk without being checked by the uk authorities
nationality is not checked at the uk internal borders

interestingly ireland does not even collect API on internal EU flights
and their border controls are a joke
for eu citizens


hmrc relies on cameras at the borders as far as i know
for tax purposes
it is your obligation to prove your residency status
not theirs
so you should produce plane tickets etc if questioned

Predictions for Poland 2013?

More People coming to the UK/Ireland
More Benefit scroungers in the UK
More Single Mothers coming to the UK
More Disabled people coming to the UK
More Criminals coming to the UK
More and more Polski Businesses and Shops setting up shop primary to service the vibrant Polski communities in this country.
More overcrowded schools
Overcrowded Hospitals

Oh wait scrub all that.. it's all BS.. All Poles are hard workers and we need an infinte supply of them :D

We are being side tracked here Polish passport holders have no need to use other routes than legitimate routes into the UK. This debate is brought about by Jon357 disputing the figure of 800,000+ Polish passport holders residing in the UK as of Wednesday 12 December 2012. He has given the Census 2011 + 40,000 as the current figure of Polish passport holders in the UK. There are other sources who suggest the number of Polish passport holders in the UK to be 800,000+ Jon357 disputes this number as fantasy.