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Predictions about Poland for 2013


jon357 71 | 20,346
13 Jan 2013 #61
disputing the figure of 800,000+ Polish passport holders residing in the UK as of Wednesday 12 December 2012. He has given the Census 2011 + 40,000 as the current figure of Polish passport holders in the UK

Once again, it looks like you've missed the point. I suspect deliberately.

You claimed that 800,000 Poles had recently arrived. Nothing to do with total number of passport holders. In fact 45,000 have arrived over the past year and a half according to the Home Office.

For some reason you don't want to admit your mistake and are now pretending that both you and I had said something entirely different - not a surprise, since lying is something we're unfortunately used to from you here.

Sad, really.
monia 3 | 212
13 Jan 2013 #62
Re read the thread and then you will realize you are agreeing with me. Jon357 in his typical fashion is attempting to ' brow beat' the meaning of the word ' recently'.

No , I still don`t agree with you , because it was you who said
warszawski:
800,000 Poles have recently arrived in the UK and him challenging you about the recent figures as 40 000. Recent doesn`t mean since 2004 .
OP poland_
13 Jan 2013 #63
For some reason you don't want to admit your mistake and are now pretending that both you and I had said something entirely different - not a surprise, since lying is something we're unfortunately used to from you here.

There is no mistake Jon357 and as for your ' lying' statement... each to their own Jon357.

Recent doesn`t mean since 2004 .

Recent can mean what you wish it to at the time of print. If you would like to contact the author of the article who is Polish I am sure she will advise you on her interpretation of the meaning of the word recent/ly in the context of her work.
monia 3 | 212
13 Jan 2013 #64
Recent can mean what you wish it to at the time of print. If you would like to contact the author of the article who is Polish I am sure she will advise you on her interpretation of the meaning of the word recent/ly in the context of her work.

This man awkwardly used a word "recent" in quite different context , but he meant recent number comparing with overall number as everybody knows that Polish immigrants were flocking to UK earlier ( before 2004 ).

Why can`t you admit this obvious fact . I don`t see the point of arguing any longer over this .
OP poland_
13 Jan 2013 #65
No , I still don`t agree with you

Look for where it all began. You are a lawyer are you not?

Jon357, questioned the 800,000+ figure and used the cenus 2011 + 40,000 as arriving in the UK since 2011 of course.

Jon357, did not like my following response

jon357: I doubt that.-

Take it up with Agata Pyzik of the Guardian

At that point he started on his usual ' brow beating' tac-tics'
jon357 71 | 20,346
13 Jan 2013 #66
No brow beating, no awkwardness - at least not from my side. But when you quote statistics, it's good to be precise. 'Recent', means recent.

If you'd clarified what you meant, instead of trying to pick an argument, all would have been avoided.
OP poland_
13 Jan 2013 #67
Jon357, I appreciate you bringing an end to this debate and I am not attempting to be personal in any way with you.

If you want to be consequential you should not have introduced the census 2011 as it had no meaning to your stand,

if you regard recent/ly as being in the the last 12 months then the figure of 40,000 Poles entering the UK would be your focus.

I will contact the media company in the Uk for their opinion and post on this thread, the amount of Polish born Passport holders in the UK always seems to be a debate on PF as well as in the media therefore it could be interesting to have a real source.

All the best.

This man awkwardly used a word "recent" in quite different context , but he meant recent number comparing with overall number as everybody knows that Polish immigrants were flocking to UK earlier ( before 2004 ).

Monia I believe this has been beaten to death on PF, the numbers of Poles moving to the UK gained massive momentum from 2004 onwards.
jon357 71 | 20,346
13 Jan 2013 #68
Crikey! I do see what you mean though, and think this could be a very good thread if it is on topic.

Re. numbers of Poles and economic predictions, I was wondering today whether their employment prospects will be affected much by Romanians and Bulgarians coming. Eric Pickles is refusing to give an official estimate (and the last administration got egg on their faces by saying that only 14000 would come after EU enlargement) but the Daily Telegraph are predicting hordes of them.

Will they drive down prospects (and remittances) for Poles by forcing salaries down? There are a lot of highly skilled people from those countries as well as people desperate enough for work at the bottom end of the market.

Or has the post-EU Polish community begun to stabilise? And do people remit from benefits etc? And will the benefits squeeze affect that?

Also, what will happen to the Zloty? A rise would suit Polish holidaymakers but be otherwise bad for a country that exports so much.
OP poland_
17 Jan 2013 #69
Immigration from Romania and Bulgaria could amount to 50,000 a year in the first five years. That is the conclusion of a study issued by Migration Watch UK today. 250,000 is the population of a city of the size of Plymouth or Newcastle. That number could be considerably higher if there were to be a movement of Roma to the UK or if some of the nearly one million Romanians in both Spain and Italy should transfer to Britain.

migrationwatchuk.org

migrationwatchuk.org/briefingPaper/document/287

I wonder how many Bulgarians and Romanians will be coming to Poland in order to find work.
Tim Bucknall 7 | 98
7 Feb 2013 #70
thanks for the link
i was thinking this thought last night, and then spotted it put into words in that interesting Guardian article:
"It is probably the closest to the central and eastern European cultural melting pot from between the wars. Let it stay that way."

we can build a new Lwow in England People!, (but with uglier buildings and more depressing weather!)

dragging my post back on to topic:
i'm keen to get your economic predictions for Poland, BBC Radio were praising the state of the Polish Economy. but Dziennik, Angora & FT are very concerned.

re: "Don't forget about Poland!" article

so i predict that Poland will allow Fracking, and the EC investigation into Gazproms pricing will free Poland of dependance on Russian Supplies.

Maybe Poland will become an exporter and can help Ukraine free itself from Gazprom?
Peter-KRK
8 Feb 2013 #71
migrationwatchuk.org/ [EXT]

migrationwatchuk.org/briefingPaper/document/287 [EXT]

They live in a very interesting Universe. Just compare real data and this BS.

Polish GDP$/cap
2008 = 16 200, not 13 800
2009 = 17 300, not 11 300 (Polish GDP have never decreased during last 20 years!)
2010 = 17 800, not 12 300
2011 = 18 800, not 13 400
2012 = 20 100
English GDP$/cap
2011 = 35 100
2012 = 35 900
20 100 / 35 900 = ~2/3 (it looks a little different than "five times")

I wouldn't afraid Romanians and Bulgarians in England so much.
At first, there are much smaller countries than Poland (even together they are smaller).
Second, Poles had many family relationships and they were soaked in Anglo-Saxon culture, especially in the time (and against) Russian occupation. They used to learn English language intensively, read newspapers, watch movies. May be that people weren't plumbers or carpenters looking just for better job conditions, but I am convinced that such orientation used to share all groups more or less. Bulgarians are more like Greek or Serbian orientated and Romanians are closer to French culture. Much less sinister.
jon357 71 | 20,346
8 Feb 2013 #72
There's something in that, however the elephant in the room is the Roma issue. Bulgaria and especially Romania don't see them as part of the nation, give them a very bad deal in society and would be very happy indeed if they all left for the UK.
Maybe 12 | 409
22 Feb 2013 #73
As usual the thread has been side tracked from the original OP, which is about Poland, not Polish migration to the UK.
So regarding the predictions for 2013, as reported online January 18, 2013,
UPDATE: IMF Approves New Two-Year $33.8 Billion Credit Line for Poland


The credit line established in 2009 between the IMF and Poland has been given another two year extension. This should help stabilise the markets and reassure investors. Due to the Eurozone contraction this affects the demand for Polish exports, however, the zloty is weak at the moment which encourages export, it is a very fine balancing act. Poland's economy is heavily linked with the German economy, the stronger the German economy the more vibrant the Polish economy.

Unfortunately Germany is having to deal with the PIGS and this strain is slowing the German economy down, ipso facto the Polish economy is going be experience less growth this year. But still will grow.
milky 13 | 1,657
22 Feb 2013 #74
Polish unemployment will reach 15% and the remittance from the west will be decimated by Romanians and Bulgarians, which are the only two countries poorer than Poland.

Unfortunately Germany is having to deal with the PIGS and this strain is slowing the German economy down,

Germany caused the problem by lending the money in the first place.
OP poland_
22 Feb 2013 #75
remittance from the west will be decimated by Romanians and Bulgarians,

As from 2014 Milky...

which are the only two countries poorer than Poland.

You may want to look at the list of countries by GDP in Europe it may enlighten you:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_in_Europe_by_GDP_(PPP)
Maybe 12 | 409
22 Feb 2013 #76
Germany caused the problem by lending the money in the first place.

hmmmm......... not so sure about that........
Peter-KRK
22 Feb 2013 #77
list of countries by GDP

May be this is more appropriate list:
(3xW)en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_countries_by_GDP_(PPP )_per_capita
jasondmzk
22 Feb 2013 #78
I wonder if 2013 will end with Poland still having her own airline. Will LOT still exist?
OP poland_
23 Feb 2013 #79
I doubt their remittances will increase, especially since the work situation in other places is bad at the moment.

With the weakness of GBP against PLZ remittances will certainly fall.
jon357 71 | 20,346
23 Feb 2013 #80
The pound is getting weaker which helps nothing, same withthe triple-dip recession. The loss of consumer confidence in cheap processed foods won't help PL either since they're a major exporter, but that may be balanced by increasing food scarcity that I gather has been widely predicted over the next year or so.

There is already shale gas activity which will have an effect - most of the jobs so far and the better paid ones in the near future won't particularly benefit Poles - they'll go to people who already have experience in shale gas extraction, but there'll certainly be work in the support sector.
pawian 189 | 18,938
20 Jan 2022 #81
Dear Stuff

Is it possible to remove the year 2013 and replace it with for near and distant future in the title? I would like to play this game of predictions but the title of this thread with the year would be misleading .

I don`t want to start a new one if it is going to be merged coz it would be senseless.

Looking forward to hearing from you.


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