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Poland's post-election political scene


poganin - | 58
5 Feb 2016 #841
Yup, the catastrophic fall in the value of the WIG20 and the value of the złoty confirms that it is lifting Poland from her knees and throwing her straight down on her face.

Good, it's good sign, stocks comprising the index are mostly foreign owned not Polish. Poland's common people did not gain anything from it for years, it is time for change.
jon357 66 | 17,077
5 Feb 2016 #842
they are very dangerous - totally inexperienced, profoundly cliquey, confrontational and should not be let anywhere near the economy, education or infrastructure or foreign policy.

Spot on - and the effect on the markets shows how little trust people have in them.

stocks comprising the index are mostly foreign owned not Polish

I wonder if you know that the WIG20 contains only Polish stocks, traded only in Warsaw...
smurf 39 | 1,981
5 Feb 2016 #843
stocks comprising the index are mostly foreign owned not Polish

fail
poganin - | 58
5 Feb 2016 #844
A company that has headquarters in Poland is regarded as Polish company and ends up on WIG20 but it may be owned by foreign investors, example is Biedronka.
jon357 66 | 17,077
5 Feb 2016 #845
Looks like you don't know too much about stock exchanges. Aside from the fact that very few people outside Poland trade WIG shares, anybody can buy shares on any exchange, including people in Poland who choose to invest in NYSE or LSE traded shares.

fail

A level of inanity entirely normal for PiS supporters.
poganin - | 58
5 Feb 2016 #846
Let's hope PiS's new tax plan for foreign companies inserts some life into Polish stocks, no more privileges for foreign owned companies, no more cheating.
polishinvestor 1 | 362
5 Feb 2016 #847
Jernomo Martins, the owner of Biedronka, is listed in Portugal. The government has large and often controlling stakes in the majority of the WIG20 stocks, certainly the largest ones bar the odd example auch as Pekao. The rest such as PKOBP PGNIG PKNOrlen PZU KGHM PGE are all essentially controlled by the government. Thats wellover 50% of the whole mkt capitalisation of the WIG20. This is why the CEO's have all been fired and talks started to create conglomerates between PGNIG PKNOrlen and Lotos, another government controlled oil company.
poganin - | 58
5 Feb 2016 #848
Former government's companies were crooked, PiS did well to get rid of them.
Dougpol1 32 | 3,245
5 Feb 2016 #849
they plan to spend billions on creating sea access for Elbąg.

But to make the Wisla navigable is of utmost importance going forward Harry, wouldn't you agree?
OP Polonius3 1,000 | 12,446
5 Feb 2016 #850
lifting Poland from its knees.

That's what the KOD creeps do not want -- they want a cheap-manpower Poland catering to foreign interest groups with tax breaks and other preferential treatment. But the złoty has rebounded to 3.94 = $1 today, whereas 2 days ago the greenback was fetching 4.03 złots. That's probably because the rabble-rousers didn't raise a rumpus on the streets last week -- that kind of commotion always causes market jitters.

As Jarosław Gowin put it, the leaders of the KOD movement are "people rooted in the former system". In other words nomenklaturites, their KOR-ite collaborators and Solidarity "fellow travellers"-- the main winners of the roundtable bamboozle!
Dougpol1 32 | 3,245
5 Feb 2016 #851
PiS did well to get rid of them.

Yawn. One of my clients who is in the media has to go to Warsaw on Monday to beg for his contract with a new boss at TVP, who of course has been appointed because of his pIS membership.

I suggested it would be a worthwhile round trip just to see the TVP man's face when the contractor tells him to go and **** himself.
polishinvestor 1 | 362
5 Feb 2016 #852
But the złoty has rebounded to 3.94 = $1 today

The zloty has rebounded because interest rate expectations in the US have been cut back. When US rates go up, people move out of emerging market investments, such as Poland. When they go down, people move back in and we have seen interest rate expectations cut back strongly over the past couple of weeks. This is why the zloty has recovered against the dollar and the stockmarket has recovered a bit too.
OP Polonius3 1,000 | 12,446
5 Feb 2016 #853
TVP

Unlike the PO/KOR-ite clique that dominated the airwaves with the tired old Lises and Kraśkos under the thankfully now defunct Tusk/Kopacz regime,under pro-Polish PiS rule TVP are opening opportunities for fresh, young, aspiring jourmalsits. They are asked to send a short self-made video to twoje@tvp.pl (from memory, I think that's right).
Harry
5 Feb 2016 #854
it may be owned by foreign investors,

More likely by Polish pension funds.

example is Biedronka.

Perhaps you'd like to read a little about Poland?

to make the Wisla navigable is of utmost importance going forward Harry, wouldn't you agree?

It is navigable, by the craft that should navigate it.

TVP are opening opportunities for fresh, young, aspiring jourmalsits.

Do they have any openings for those who loyally trotted out the Party line back when the Party was PZPR? PIS has made it clear it values those who are 100% loyal to the Party.
delphiandomine 88 | 18,858
5 Feb 2016 #855
Let's hope PiS's new tax plan for foreign companies inserts some life into Polish stocks, no more privileges for foreign owned companies, no more cheating.

Their tax plan has already destroyed the WIG20. PKO BP are in freefall, and the latest news about putting yet another inexperienced puppet (his previous expertise involved being the deputy director of finance in some village) in charge of KGHM will destroy the WIG20 further.

This is why the CEO's have all been fired and talks started to create conglomerates between PGNIG PKNOrlen and Lotos, another government controlled oil company.

Ah, Putinism at its finest. Witness how the Russian economy is flour...oh.
OP Polonius3 1,000 | 12,446
5 Feb 2016 #856
already destroyed

So which plan of theirs was it that has given the złoty a new lease of life. From 4.04 to 3.94 to the dollar two days is impressive.

But herd the KOD chanter-ranters into the streets again and the Polish currency will take another pounding.
Dougpol1 32 | 3,245
5 Feb 2016 #857
From 4.04 to 3.94 to the dollar two days is impressive

A correction? Aka profit-taking.
delphiandomine 88 | 18,858
5 Feb 2016 #858
From 4.04 to 3.94 to the dollar two days is impressive.

Not really, because the złoty and the WIG20 are still significantly weaker than they were before the election.
OP Polonius3 1,000 | 12,446
5 Feb 2016 #859
weaker than they were before the election.

But stronger than a week ago. Things fluctuate. But just herd the PRL-rooted trough-defenders into the streets of Poland again, and the złozy will weaken. The sight of disgruntled, ranting, palacard-waving crowds streaming through the streets of Athens, Warsaw or wherever looks far more formidable on TV when viewed abroad and is a definite business turn-off! ALL WE ARE SAYING IS: GIVE PiS A CHANCE!
polishinvestor 1 | 362
5 Feb 2016 #860
When considering smaller nations, what most governments do has almost of no postive consequence to growth. There is very little room for manoeuvre. All economies are now linked and move to the tune of what happens in the USA China and Europe. Local governments can however hinder growth by creating unfavourable conditions for investment. You have to play the game the way the rest of the world plays it or you will ultimately be worse off.

As I said before, the zloty and Polish investments got a break due to improved sentiment towards emerging markets, thanks to a change in US interest rate expectations. But note that against the euro its still above 4.40 despite clear signals for Europe that it will cut interest rates in March and devalue its currency further.
mafketis 24 | 9,387
5 Feb 2016 #861
ALL WE ARE SAYING IS: GIVE PiS A CHANCE!

Didn't they have a chance already and royally screw things up? Why will things be better now?
OP Polonius3 1,000 | 12,446
5 Feb 2016 #862
have a chance

Two years were hardly enough. Any party that had a choice of a minority govt or two dodgy coalition partners would hardly fare any better. Now PiS are beign attacked for their outright win. I know the Delphs et al would love to have PiS saddled with with junior partners Petru and PSL.
cms 9 | 1,271
8 Feb 2016 #863
Polonius you say to give PiS a chance. I think many people were willing to - my reaction on election night was that this is a democracy, that there are enough safeguards and that there are enough intelligent people in PiS not to do anything drastic to dismantle a story that while far from perfect has been constant growth. Since 2004 this is the highest living standards and freedom that Poland has ever enjoyed. I have a lot in common with PiS - I'm a once a month churchgoer, small kids, have a small farm, and I also think Polish internal politics is no business of the EU.

But what they have done in 3 months is dissipate all of that goodwill - they have chosen confrontation wherever possible, they have wasted time and energy on trivial issues of identity politics, they have appointed people with zero experience to run huge corporations, they have favored ideology over common sense time and again. Worst of all I am amazed at the extent to which Duda and Szydlo are puppets of the fruitcake wing of the party. I think that Szalamacha and Morawiecki won't last long and then it will be difficult to recruit a finance minister who wants to hitch their reputation to this crowd - that could be seriously risky for the zloty and Poland's ability to finance itself.
OP Polonius3 1,000 | 12,446
8 Feb 2016 #864
many people were willing

But the disgruntled PO losers and other trough defenders weren't amongst them. Not onyl did PiS not get a 100 day period fo grace but were attacked even before the got their cabinet in palce. They did not have a moment of peace and quiet to calmly develop their legislative potrfolio, but were under constant disctracting fire. That may have contributed to the climate of contingency and fast-track legislation.
delphiandomine 88 | 18,858
8 Feb 2016 #865
Polonius, stop making excuses. They have the Presidency, the Sejm and the Senat. There's no excuses for not implementing legislation - it was their choice to focus on destroying the SC and TK as well as executing the TKM plan.

We all know the real reason they haven't implemented their promises is because they were completely unrealistic. They're struggling to find the money for the 500zł project, the retail tax law has resulted in Solidarność getting upset as well as many small business owners and they're showing that they simply weren't prepared despite the claims otherwise. We're seeing the cost of the PiS policies so far, the WIG20 is down over 200 points, exchange rates are in the toilet (today, 1USD = 3.99zł, 1CHF = 4.03zł, 1EUR = 4.45zł, 1PLN = 6.08CZK), insurance prices have gone up considerably, PiS are attempting to force import taxes on EU goods, and more.

By the way, latest polls :

PiS : 30.3%
Nowoczesna : 26.2%
PO : 15.2%
Kukiz'15 : 6.9%
SLD : 5.7%

ewybory.eu/sondaz-ibris-dla-onetu-05-02-2016/
OP Polonius3 1,000 | 12,446
8 Feb 2016 #866
not implementing legislation

Some say they are passing too much legislation too quickly, for you it's not enough. In other words, PiS cannot win. Whatever they do, a flock of disgruntled, mean-spirited nitpickers and fault-finders will crawl out of the woodwork...
delphiandomine 88 | 18,858
8 Feb 2016 #867
They had plenty of time to pass legislation that would make people's lives better, but all they've done is focus on TKM as much as possible. The latest scandal with Macierewicz's 'commission' (with no aviation experts whatsoever!) all being paid 25k a month says it all - the goal is to milk the country for as much money as possible while it lasts.

At the end of the day, the hard numbers don't lie - the złoty has collapsed and the WIG20 has collapsed.
polishinvestor 1 | 362
8 Feb 2016 #868
Announced today that tomorrow or in one week (?) Morawiecki, the finance minister, will announce his plan to regenerate til now underdeveloped regions of Poland.

bankier.pl/wiadomosc/Morawiecki-o-strategii-rozwoju-Ma-sluzyc-mieszkancom-terenow-mniej-zadbanych-3482183.html
OP Polonius3 1,000 | 12,446
8 Feb 2016 #869
regenerate til now underdeveloped regions of Poland.

It's about time 26 years on! Morawiecki is also to only one talking about building up Polish entrepreneurship, designs, innovations and brands.
polishinvestor 1 | 362
8 Feb 2016 #870
Policing is what is most important with these projects (once you have of course selected projects that have a chance of reaching their aim). Poles werent keen on policing dispensed EU funds as it was EU money and Germans didnt want to push the issue of forcing their officials into Polish territory, so much money badly spent at best, embezzled at worst. One town in dolnyslask got 3 million to do water mains a few years back. 1 million went missing while local council decided to put up water rates claiming the need to pay for the project depsite majority of funds being from EU. Resulted in having highest water rates in dolnyslask.

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