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Poland's post-election political scene


Dougpol1 32 | 3,245
22 Oct 2018 #3,811
PiS has won 32,3% of the provincial elections, as opposed to its 26,8% in 2014,

Yes - it's actually a very good result for PIS - and shows again that the cities, where the wealth is held, are being held to ransom by the disenfranchised voter in the sprawling Polish countryside.

A lot of those city people would love to live in the countryside - but can't afford it, because they have to be where the work is.

So meanwhile, they have to subsidise those who have a more serene life outside the metropolises. It's high time we cut the Polish East adrift and go for a Citexit. But seriously, all this causes friction between the two different worlds, one of which wants it easy.
Atch 17 | 3,427
22 Oct 2018 #3,812
Very poor turnout though as always. Only 51.3% of the electorate. The irony is that the very people who are PIS supporters are also in many cases the least likely to vote. Thank God for that! Did you know that back in 2014 an astonishing 17.9% of the votes were declared invalid or 'spoiled votes' as we'd say in Ireland. In other words people made a pig's ear of their ballot paper. That's a lot of wasted votes. I wonder how it might have affected the outcome if they'd been pukka.
mafketis 24 | 9,361
22 Oct 2018 #3,813
One takeaway from this (maybe, subject to further analysis). While PiS still has a lot of support in abstract (500+) terms, individual representatives tend to be deeply uncharismatic and/or disliked. Can anyone think of a PiS politician that people actually like?
Moonlighting 31 | 233
22 Oct 2018 #3,814
PiS may have been beaten on the mayor election in several big cities and may have lost half of the voivodeships but if, as some of you say, many PiS voters didn't bother going to vote, and considering that the Koalicja is indeed made of parties having to unite for the occasion if they wanted to score, then PiS still definitely leads the charge. They may still well score in 2019 as I doubt that .N and PO will merge then, too many seats at sejm to be lost by ambitious candidates ;)... not to count Poles fed up with E.U. totalitarianism of which PO is the representative.
Dougpol1 32 | 3,245
22 Oct 2018 #3,815
Polish farmers will do well to watch what happens to their British counterparts post EU. Some years ago a Scottish agricultural conglomerate bought up a controlling interest in swathes of Pomeranian dairy land that was being advertised as under-capitalised.

If there was a better investment I'd be surprised. Poles can be fed up as they want with their "loss of sovereignty." Money talks, as Brexit is proving.
delphiandomine 88 | 18,858
22 Oct 2018 #3,816
While PiS still has a lot of support in abstract (500+) terms, individual representatives tend to be deeply uncharismatic and/or disliked.

Yes, it's a very fair observation. Their policies are popular, but that only works when you have a well known and liked face promoting them. In local elections where personalities are more important, they struggle because it's very easy for opposition candidates to pick them off. Look what happened in Łódź, where you had the immensely dislikable Suski trying to tell voters there that there's no point voting for Zdanowska, or in Warsaw where Jaki was trying desperately to pretend that he was a Varsovian despite not even knowing the result of the last Legia game.

About a likable PiS politician - Szydło, strangely enough. People like her, even though she's a screeching whining bureaucrat at best. She somehow connected with female voters, though I have no idea how or why.

The fact that PiS has won 32,3% of the provincial elections, as opposed to its 26,8% in 2014, probably shows that PiS will most likely win absolute majority vote

Nice propaganda, but epic fail. They've actually dropped back 5.5% from the 2015 election, and they've lost by around 8% to KO/PSL. The claim that the results should be taken with a "pinch of salt" is also laughable, because more people voted in these elections than in the 2015 parliamentary elections.

PiS voters never "don't bother to vote". They are older and less educated voters with little mobility, hence they vote without fail. If PiS could only win 32.5% despite three years of non-stop propaganda and social transfers, then they've a hell of a lot of work ahead of them if they want to win in 2019.

What this election tells us is that PiS, despite controlling public media and with vast financial resources at their hands - still couldn't win more than 32.5%. It's actually 0.4% more than they got in the 2007 election, which was an electoral disaster for them.
mafketis 24 | 9,361
22 Oct 2018 #3,817
they've lost by around 8% to KO/PSL

Depending on where that could be important. In the countryside where people would never vote for PO (can't blame them) when they're not happy with PiS the vote swings toward PSL.

About a likable PiS politician - Szydło, strangely enough

She definitely connected with voters in a way that few (of any party) did. I think it might be (hypothesizing a bit...) she reminded people of that bossy aunt who drives everybody crazy but knows how to get things done and when all else fails will help you straighten out your messes (applying a few stern lectures in the process).

Marcinkiewicz was also very likeable. I didn't get it, but he also connected with voters in a way that no other figure did at the time, people liked the scrappy underdog persona (IIRC some British writer used the term 'cheeky chappy' to describe him - I don't know exactly what that means so I'm just putting it out there).

Interesting that PiS tends to downgrade those politicians who actually connect with voters - a kind of anti-meritocracy that's very PRLish.... does anyone actually like Morawiecki? He has some political skills and some of his ideas aren't the worst but.... he has a great face for radio as they used to say.... he's the guy that you hope his seat isn't next to yours when he opens the compartment door on the train.
TWPOscar 1 | 10
22 Oct 2018 #3,818
Nice propaganda, but epic fail. They've actually dropped back 5.5% from the 2015 election.

You're talking about the parliamentary result. I was speaking about the regional elections of 2014. Please think before writing next time.
Atch 17 | 3,427
22 Oct 2018 #3,819
some British writer used the term 'cheeky chappy' to describe him - I don't know exactly what that means

A cheeky chappie is generally from a working class background, doesn't know his place and pushes boundaries a bit but usually with humour (frequently a bit double entrendre) and is considered non-threatening and harmless, frequently a source of amusement to the upper classes. It's a standard 'type' of English comedy. In real life it wears very thin pretty quickly :)
mafketis 24 | 9,361
22 Oct 2018 #3,820
A cheeky chappie is generally

Doesn't necessarily fit Marcinkiewicz as prime minister, if anything he was a likeable cwaniaczek (sneaky guy who always ends up getting what he wants through devious means) Jerzy Stuhr played a fair number of such characters (the lead in Miś too)

But after his split from his incredibly stupid and lazy second wife he just seems like a loser, when I see him on TV trying to make a serious point I think of the infamous video of him naked on the toilet yelling at her to get a job... his dignity is gone..... probably never to return.

I've noticed throughout the day on a couple of news portals that the idea that PiS has been weakened keeps getting stronger... IINM there's probably a game of thrones going on behind the scenes and I wouldn't be surprised if a number of high profile members end up out on their keisters, apparently Ziobro's becoming the scapegoal for Jaki's defeat in Warsaw....
delphiandomine 88 | 18,858
22 Oct 2018 #3,821
Interesting that PiS tends to downgrade those politicians who actually connect with voters

Yes, it's a common theme with Kaczyński. He did it to Marcinkiewicz, he did it to Szydło and even did it to Morawiecki within weeks of him becoming PM. There's a very common theme of them being humiliated in public, and it seems to be a form of Party discipline. My suspicion is that he knows that if anyone gets too powerful in their own right, then they might oust him if things aren't going the way of PiS. In any normal party, he would have been gone after the 2011 election.

IINM there's probably a game of thrones going on behind the scenes and I wouldn't be surprised if a number of high profile members end up out on their keisters

Wouldn't surprise me if Morawiecki is gone by the New Year. Ziobro going would be popular among people in cities, but I don't see it happening - they haven't completed the takeover of the Supreme Court, and Ziobro is needed for that as the perfect faceless bureaucrat. But yes, it wouldn't surprise me if several people lost their jobs, as Kaczyński will be well aware that politics can change very very quickly before elections.

Speaking of Marcinkiewicz's ex-wife, she's an acquaintance of mine (in the English context, not Polish context). Don't even ask how...

Incidentally, perhaps now the claim of "young people vote for PiS and right wing parties" can be put to bed.

Results from those aged 18-29:

PiS: 23,3%
KO: 18,7%
PSL: 17,6%
Kukiz'15: 13,6%
Bezpartyni Samorządowcy: 9,1%
SLD: 3,3%
Wolność: 3.3%
Ruch Narodowy: 2,8%
Zieloni: 1,6%
Local committees: 4,2%

Left/centrist parties: 41.3%
Right wing parties: 43%

Essentially nothing in it. The myth of the Polish youth becoming right wing has been completely shattered in this election.
Spike31 2 | 2,099
22 Oct 2018 #3,822
Essentially nothing in it. The myth of the Polish youth becoming right wing has been completely shattered in this election.

Not quite so. Those are local elections which results has never resembled the major [Parliamentary] elections in Poland.

And there's also an interesting thing about Silesia. Both: upper Silesia and Lower Silesia has voted on PiS in recent elections.

polls
delphiandomine 88 | 18,858
22 Oct 2018 #3,823
Not quite so. Those are local elections which results has never resembled the major elections in Poland.

Quite so. They offer a validated view of what current politics show in Poland, and that the myth of Polish youth being right wing has been shattered. If there was any truth to it, we'd expect to see a strong majority in favour of right wing politics. As it stands, that simply isn't the case.

And there's also an interesting thing about Silesia. Both: upper Silesia and Lower Silesia has voted on PiS in recent elections.

Not so interesting at all. In Lower Silesia, the Sejmik is divided between many different groups, more so than in other provinces. PiS winning a plurality doesn't mean much, because it's a five horse race. As for the rest of that map, what matters is who controls the provincial parliaments, not who won a plurality of votes.

Turnout was officially 54.24%, considerably higher than in 2014.
Spike31 2 | 2,099
22 Oct 2018 #3,824
When you look at the local elections of 2014 you can clearly see that "right wing" has, in general, gained popularity since then.
delphiandomine 88 | 18,858
22 Oct 2018 #3,825
Gaining popularity has nothing to do with the false claim that young Polish people are majority right wing.
Dirk diggler 9 | 4,718
22 Oct 2018 #3,826
Than why have more Polish youth voted for right wing than left wing parties? PiS/Kukiz is still more popular than PO and their partners

Also, 'left wing' isn't really a correct way to describe parties like PO. If anything they're centrist. The stuff that PO supports would be considered conservative, even right wing in most w European countries. Poles are conservative as a people and that reflects in both parties.
mafketis 24 | 9,361
22 Oct 2018 #3,827
why have more Polish youth voted for right wing than left wing parties?

Did they? PiS is essentially back down to it's default levels (the diehard supporters who have nowhere else to do). Younger people flock to cities if they can and PiS did not do great in cities....

I know a lot more Polish youth than you do, and hardly any of them can stand PiS....
Spike31 2 | 2,099
22 Oct 2018 #3,828
Did they?

delphiandomine has already provided the answer to this question:

Results from those aged 18-29:

Dirk diggler 9 | 4,718
22 Oct 2018 #3,829
Yes according to delphs post...

Results from those aged 18-29:PiS: 23,3%KO: 18,7%PSL: 17,6%Kukiz'15: 13,6%

Pis is 1st place... combione with Kukiz and you got 36%

I know a lot more Polish youth than you do, and hardly any of them can stand PiS....

Doubt it. For one, youre a lot older than me so why you'd even be hanging out with youth is highly suspect... I know plenty of Polish youth that are far-right and they don't like PiS either but as long as they're keeping the migrants and commies out they support them. If anything, youth tend to support Kukiz from what I've seen...
mafketis 24 | 9,361
22 Oct 2018 #3,830
already provided the answer

How are right and left and centrist defined here? Traditionally prawica and lewica don't mean the same thing in Poland as they do in most other countries, there's no real strong right party that can cross the threshhold and hasn't been since LPR's bried heyday.
delphiandomine 88 | 18,858
22 Oct 2018 #3,831
Pis is 1st place... combione with Kukiz and you got 36%

Combine KO with PSL and you've got the same. 1st place means nothing in a proportional representation system, it's about who has the most seats. Still in terms of percentage, left/centrist and right are all but equal and within the margin of error.

PiS did not do great in cities....

Latest news is that they've also lost control of the city council in Białystok. For the mayor and the city council there to be in the hands of the opposition is a clear sign that cities all over Poland have rejected PiS, not just rich cities. They really haven't won anything of note - I haven't checked for a couple of hours, but last time I checked, their biggest win was in Stalowa Wola.
Dirk diggler 9 | 4,718
22 Oct 2018 #3,832
Combine KO with PSL and you've got the same.

Combine pis and kukiz and you have over a third.... besides its parliament and presidential elections that are really what matters
mafketis 24 | 9,361
22 Oct 2018 #3,833
so why you'd even be hanging out with youth is highly suspect...

how so? I don't 'hang out' with Polish youth, but I live in Poland instead of being an occasional tourist....

Combine pis and kukiz and you have over a third.

Which is clearly a lot less than JK was counting on...
undercover
22 Oct 2018 #3,834
In short, they've failed. To come in at 8% less than PO/PSL is terrible news for them.

Christ on the bike ! Now the cword of "expats" with no clue about the Polish politics will be spreading here their "wisdom" for the next 20 pages.

Dudes, go check the past local elections results. They are never in line with the central politics. Do you seriously think that PSL suddenly jumped to +12% ? They used to have even +20% in the locals and still were praying to pass 5% for the Sejm. PSL is simply a local level party. Every decent village in Poland must have 2 things: OSP and PSL branch. It's more of a social club / local action group than a political party down there.

PiS on the other hand, despite the "village" outlook your crowd is trying to impose upon them, basically do not exist on the local level. It's a party focused on the central politics. They literally do not have branches in most of towns and one would have to try very hard to actually set-up one on that level, go and try it.

While PO is, as usual, a **** party, many of the "PO candidates" that won in the cities are actually independent, PO pays for their campaign so they attach that crappy logo to their face.

PiS is at solid 40-42% in the central politics and that's 50-55% of seats in the Parliament. That's a fact even If you keep masturbating about "rejection of PiS" for the next 20 pages.

The only thing they really messed up is Warsaw. Jaki couldn't win there or even get close. Should have created in advance the 2nd Duda If they were serious about it.

the cities, where the wealth is held, are being held to ransom by the disenfranchised voter in the sprawling Polish countryside.

Will I ever live to see a SINGLE post of yours that isn't utter rubbish ? Do you have a clue how the wealth is actually generated ? Or how the GDP is calculated ? Do you have any idea that the really rich, even those working in friggin Warsaw, usually live outside of the cities ? Seriously, is there any more clueless creatue on this planet ?
Dirk diggler 9 | 4,718
22 Oct 2018 #3,835
Which is clearly a lot less than JK was counting on...

And still more than po...

but I live in Poland instead of being an occasional tourist....

Plenty expats here live in poland yet they cant even communicate with the majority of the population thus making their knowledge of polish limited. Are you Polish? Do you speak polish? Were you born there? Raised in a Polish family? Have polish citizenship? Pay taxes in poland? If all of the above then i will concede you have the same ties to poland and knowledge about polish society as i do.

how so? I don't 'hang out' with Polish youth,

How do you know then what polish youths attitudes are? Let me guess, because someone on TV or the internet told you. And that means of course its true...

If you dont communicate or socialize with polish youth, by your own admission, then obviously you dont know what their leanings are. And even then itd only be representative of a small amount of poles.

I can tell you from experience that most polish youth esp males tend to be right wing. Thats why groups like nop, rn, the new volunteer militia even the rodzimowierstwo followers are mostly young people. Or even look at photos of the independence day march - tons of young people. Polish youth are more patriotic than ever. And the muslim invasion and eu pushing multikulti crap has everything to do with that.

Contrasts that with the KODerasts who were clearly mostly geezer pensioners as can be seen in numerous images taken of their events.
mafketis 24 | 9,361
23 Oct 2018 #3,836
Let me gues

Your guesses say a lot about you.... and nothing about me.

The young people I come into contact with on a regular basis are highly educated so I can see how that might confuse you....
Dirk diggler 9 | 4,718
23 Oct 2018 #3,837
Your guesses say a lot about you.... and nothing about me.

So again can you place a checkmark on 'all of the above?' Nope, no answer. Sorry mawkutas, you lose again.

highly educated so I can see how that might confuse you....

Education means nothing and thats coming from a grad student. Unless you have a grad level education youre below my attainment. And if you do congrats your on the same level. Not that it really matter though. Theres plenty of loons with fancy titles and those who dont have a shred of street smarts or are naive as all hell. They tend to overwhelmingly be leftists too.
Dougpol1 32 | 3,245
23 Oct 2018 #3,838
the really rich, even those working in friggin Warsaw, usually live outside of the cities ?

So you're saying that people who live in the cities are poor. So poor people can afford city housing prices? And the average rich family want to live in a village? Or in the country? You're off your face pal.

We all know why most live in the country - it's cheaper, and land is inherited. No one other than the moneyed and retired would actually choose to live in the Polish countryside if they could afford not to. Of course there is the paradox that people can lord it outside of the cities, but with families that gets rather tedious, trapped in some backwater.

Meanwhile the educated (and richer) people in the cities go on fighting against PIS because they are unhappy at subsidising PIS voters in the countryside.

That should be simple enough even for you thickhead.
mafketis 24 | 9,361
23 Oct 2018 #3,839
can you place a checkmark on 'all of the above?

I've never claimed to be Polish (I'm perfectly fine with my American cultural identity, thank you very much). But I live in Poland and speak and read Polish and have more daily contact with Polish people in Poland than you do Signore Polonia.

Therefore I know that PiS is not 'rightwing' in any meaningful sense, they are essentially socially conservative socialists (with some neoliberalism around the edges) and I also know there is no real equivalent to anything like a strong/far right party in Poland with more than a handful of supporters (sorry, I know you long for an iron cross and a big man to bend the knee to).

Unless you have a grad level education youre below my attainment

I am not below your attainment (just take me behind the barn and give me the Old Yeller treatment the day I fall behind you....)
TWPOscar 1 | 10
23 Oct 2018 #3,840
Dirk diggler

Mafketis

I'm not going to interfere with your personal quarrel, but Dirk is making a good point though. The whole narrative of lower educated people = dumb, and therefore they automatically tend to vote for populist parties, is a false narrative portrayed by the media.

Lower educated people are not necessarily dumb and short-sighted. They only thing it means is that they do not have a degree. That's it. It's just a title.

Most populist and right-wing voters are normal people. Of course, the media often likes to portray the extremely dumb and short-sighted individuals, but the majority are perfectly normal citizens. People who you probably wouldn't even notice that they don't have a degree when talking to them.

It's the same the other way around. We all know the crazy and lunatic liberals that are anti-trump. The ones who lay crying on the ground after he'd won. They're a minority too. The difference is that the media is doing its best trying to prove that all populist voters - all over the world - are plain dumb.

And don't forget that there are plenty of professors and high-educated individuals who vote conservative. But often universities are pro-Europe, pro-globalism and follow all its ideals in the curriculum.

My point is; it has nothing to do with intelligence, even though they're trying to link those two as much as possible. It's mostly a personal view on the world and how you believe things work best. Right-wing voters generally believe that multicultural societies can never work. Left-wing believes that they're far better than homogeneous societies e.g.

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