Poland's post-election political scene

You're the e-creep, not me, so finding something on the web is far less effort for you. But here goes anyway:
prostozmostu.pl/mswia-bierze-pod-lupe-bartosza-kramka-z-fundacji-otwarty-dialog,8751.html

Yes you are, and all you could find is a dodgy website.

So another lie.

Everything you disagree with beocmes dodgy. Well, there is nothing dodgier than the Kosher Courier, the rag of the Soviet stooges' son who's got a blood-stained judicial murderer as a brother. Nice family!

Like that website. Can you maybe find a credible source, or is it just insinuation?


Very hard to know how that weird outburst is relevant to anything.

It's relevant to dodginess and you can't find dodgier soruces than the Michnik rag.

No it isn't.


Their readership, well above average intelligence and with well above average levels of educational attainment would disagree with you.

And they're certainly quite discerning about who they turn down for a job, eh, Po...

Whoever said that crooks, scamsters and ex-commies are stupid? In fact they're very clever and crafty and masters of self-survival.


Spreading your guru HB's lies again? BTW is he on an extended assignment out Belarus way, since he seems to have fallen off the PF radar.

Don't be silly, Po. Ordinary Warsovians.


True, po, true...

Poland's post-election political scene?

Answer is simple and comes in a form of one word. That is - confusion.

What you call a rag is still Poland's best selling non-tabloid newspaper. But then what you probably call 'quality reporting' is the kind of tosh that used to fill the "News from the Old Country" pages of the likes of the Podunk County Polish Pig Farmer's Gazette and was placed there on the orders of the Party.


And the bitterness about that is as unlikely to go away as the bitterness felt by the PIS hardcore supporters about the way they have failed in free Poland.

But its circulation has fallen gramatically over the recent years. Also the paper has become much thinner over the recent year and at the same time the price has gone up substantially.

And respected too.

[moved from]


Which won't happen anytime soon.

Just for reference, the latest polls have:

PiS: 36.4%
PO: 20.3%
N.: 10.5%
K'15: 6.8%
SLD: 6.6%
PSL: 6.3%

Broken into a split between 'right' and 'centre', we have:

Right: 43.2% (PiS+Kukiz'15)
Centre: 43.7% (PO, N., SLD, PSL)

Advantage opposition. Even Kukiz himself is now turning against PiS.

PiS ALONE is 47% according to October 2017 CBOS
2nd place losers PO is at 16%

wyborcza.pl/7,75398,22509312,cbos-47-procent-poparcia-dla-pis.html?disableRedirects=true

In August PiS was 42% and PO at less than half at 20%. So since August, PiS went up another 5% and PO down another 4%. Poles will never forgive PO for agreeing to take in 4k migrants of whom and put the safety of the citizens at risk.

rp.pl/Polityka/170829385-Sondaz-CBOS-PiS---42-procent-PO---20-procent.html


That's not up to me. That's up to Poland's elected officials and the EU. Over 80% of Poles support the EU for economic reasons, but they reject the forced migration and sticking its nose into our affairs like telling us what our abortion laws should be. Thankfully, unlike during the PO years, we have a government that actually listens to what the citizens want.

Not up to me. It's up to Poland's democratically elected government and the EU. We follow 99% of EU rules but certain things are a red line - especially the migrant issue. The EU was not established so Germany and Brussels can inflict far leftist laws into countries that do not want such laws. The more the EU pushes far left agendas onto socially conservative countries like Poland, the more tension there will be. It's not us that are the problem - it's the EU that's pushing a very specific far left agenda. That's why Brexit happened, that's why the V4 is stronger than ever before under PO, that's why Poland and EU butt heads - it first started with the migrant issue. over 50% of PO voters and over 90% of Pis voters (74% of all Poles) reject migration from 3rd world, yet PO didn't listen to its citizens and agreed to take 4k in. That honestly is the main reason why they lost the election and have since been unable to recover their popularity and support. They now regularly poll at 1/2 to 1/3 of PiS' support.

Found the newest polls
PIS - 45%
PO - almost 1/3 of PiS support at only 17% rofl

2-12.11.2017: preferencje partyjne w potencjalnych wyborach do Sejmu - PiS (+SP+PR) 45% (-2pp), PO 17% (+1pp),Kukiz'15 8% (=), Nowoczesna 5% (-1pp), PSL 4% (+1pp), SLD 3% (+1pp), Razem 2% (=), Wolność 1% (-1pp). Inna partia 1% , trudno powiedzieć 13%, odmowa odp. 1%

Nope, it's not the newest poll.

ewybory.eu/sondaz-ibris-04-12-2017 is the latest poll, which confirms that the right wing is losing. If you include parties that won't reach the threshold, then the numbers look worse for the right wing -

Right: 44.2% (PiS+Kukiz'15+Wolność+KNP)
Centre/left: 46.1% (PO, N., SLD, PSL, Razem)

Cbos > Ibris

Plus even wyborcza confirmed with an article that's about 2 3 months old that po has around 1/3 of pis support. They're irrelevant now... and thats wyborcza lol

Psl sld razem don't count they don't even have a single person in the Senate, sld has no one in either sejm or senate while psl also has no one in the Senate and only 15 in parliament.

Either way it doesn't rly matter. Poland is such a socially conservative country that even our larger leftist parties like po would be considered more right/center right. That's even the label they're given on wiki. The fact that cbos shows 74% of poles reject migratuin and over half of po/nowoczesna supporters reject migration illustrates this further.

One things for sure, you won't see any large Antifa gathers in pl nor will you have idiots cheering migrants as they get off a train and embark on a campaign of violent cultural enrichment

I gather Jarosław Kaczyński has been taken into hospital now, and it is considered to be serious.

If anything happens to him it could well mean that PiS will lose the next election.

They'll tear themselves apart if Kaczyński is no longer able to control them. Even the right wing media reports on how people go to Nowogrodzka to settle their internal disputes, and people such as Morawiecki simply don't have the power base in the party to maintain their position without his endorsement.

from what I can gather Kaczyński has some problems with a joint in one of his knees, nothing life-threatening

Exactly. I suspect there will be some complicated times ahead. BTW, it's actually a bit more than just 'knee problems', to say the least.

Well, well, well.

PiS have been comprehensively defeated in Warsaw, Łódź, Wrocław, Poznań, Lublin and Białystok, where their candidates have all lost in the first round. They're well behind in Kraków and Gdańsk, and they're down over 5% on their 2015 election result. The opposition are ahead in terms of percent, and the only province I've seen so far (Świętokrzyskie), they're projected to tie 15-15 with the opposition.

In short, they've failed. To come in at 8% less than PO/PSL is terrible news for them, and even the votes from Kukiz'15 still put them 2% behind. They're not likely to win control of most regional parliaments, so voters have dealt a clear rejection to them.

The government-controlled CBOS opinion polls were claiming PiS would win 40% vs PO/N.'s 19%, so it just shows how badly falsified those polls are. They also had the PSL on 5%, yet the real result was nearly 17%.

Krakow is very interesting. That is a PIS town. Also there was a concerted smear campaign led by PIS against the mayor of Gdansk, so I'm glad to see that they got it slung back in their faces.

Unfortunately this doesn't really change anything in as far as the country is led, and where our tax money is spent.

So you are reading exit poles, the ones I am reading show that they have won in nine provinces, time will tell hey matey

polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2018-10-21/pis-wygralo-wybory-do-sejmikow-w-9-wojewodztwach-koalicja-obywatelska-w-7-exit-poll

For Krakow it's not over yet. Second poll in two weeks and we'll see for whom those who didn't vote today for that old incompetent bag Majchrowski will vote now.

I hope Wassermann wins.

They might have won the most votes, but there's proportional representation in these elections. Final results will come in a couple of days, but it's definitely not a victory for them.

The most important thing is that big cities are essentially PiS-free zones now.

At first glance it seems that maybe the old East-West divide is being replaced by a countryside-city divide, for PiS to lose in Lublin and Białystok is kind of bigger news than in Warsaw (capital) or Poznań (always the city with the least amount of support for PiS)

The fact that PiS has won 32,3% of the provincial elections, as opposed to its 26,8% in 2014, probably shows that PiS will most likely win absolute majority vote in the upcoming 2019 parliamentary elections. Apparently they have become more populare amongst the Poles in general.

Also, regional elections should always be taken with a grain of salt, since many Poles do not bother voting for them. There are many Poles working abroad that don't bother coming to Poland to vote for the regional elections, whereas they definately will for the parliamentary's.

Personally, I believe that mostly the PO voters showed up, since they are extremely upset with PiS being at power. I think most PiS voters either didn't bother voting, were abroad or just simply didn't care for some reason. But I have no proof to back that up, so I might be wrong there haha.

But I think PiS I doing quite well in the suburbs - their message definitely resonates with young families who have some spare money for the first time