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How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis?


PolAmKrakow 1 | 433
4 Apr 2020 #91
Reading some forecasts for currencies over the last 24 hours. 90 day forecast for PLN is 4.6 to 5.15 on the USD. These are historical marks if reached. Currently nearing historical marks now. Looking at the last 30 years of exchange rates we are close to uncharted territory.
cms neuf - | 1,588
4 Apr 2020 #92
Well that is a pretty wide forecast and probably won't happen but if you think it will then buy some dollars and make some hay.
PolAmKrakow 1 | 433
4 Apr 2020 #93
@cms neuf

I am buying PLN. Maybe you misunderstood. 1 USD to 4,6 or 5.15 PLN. 1 USD is already 4.24 PLN today. Up from 3.8 PLN a month ago.
Sylvio 18 | 137
4 Apr 2020 #94
If you paralyze all econony except for government, there is little to hold up the currancy. Poland dont sell oil or arms.
cms neuf - | 1,588
4 Apr 2020 #95
Yes, so if you buy PLN now then why, because today you can get 4.16 for them and in 90 days you can get more 4.6, if you use your forecast (which I don't believe)

Myself I am just leaving it in the currency I earn it in - if a customer sends me Euro it is staying in Euro, if they send me dollars it is staying in dollars and anything I earn in PLN I am using for day to day expenses (which is not much as all the shops have huge lines in front)
PolAmKrakow 1 | 433
4 Apr 2020 #96
I am looking at it from an business standpoint. The PLN I bought yesterday at 4.2 goes into an account to buy other business opportunity as prices com down. Making my USD outlay lower. IF I dont find a good business opportunity and I am wrong, when the exchange rate is more favorable to PLN, I buy back USD and make at least 10% simply because I made the bargain purchase. This is simple math.
cms neuf - | 1,588
4 Apr 2020 #97
Ok - makes sense for you if you are thinking in dollars :) hope it works out
Cargo pants 2 | 472
4 Apr 2020 #98
1 USD is already 4.24 PLN today

In early 2000s it use to be 4.45 to 4,60.I wonder if it will pass that.If it does then not worth buying PLN.
PolAmKrakow 1 | 433
4 Apr 2020 #99
Hypothetically, I flip 100K USD to 450K PLN. At that point real estate is definitely coming down. That IMO is a smart time to buy. I just walked Rynek and some side streets. Some business's that were open a month ago we now empty with for rent signs on them. Most of them the smaller mom and pop shops, but some with good locations. I have to believe, that at the end of the month, when people cant pay rent on May 1, more deals will be there to be had.

While good for me as I look to diversify, this is clearly going to be devastating for young locals just starting out and older people who were just getting by. Its 4 weeks ago since warnings were given here, and in less than a week it will be 4 weeks that social distancing and other measures were instituted. While each day drags on for the most part, in business terms, time is flying, and time is money.
Cargo pants 2 | 472
4 Apr 2020 #100
Yeah,its tempting.I havent bought money in Poland for the last maybe 7 years or so,just play with what I make here.In States I was in a contract to buy Tim Hortons,but I backed out.Too risky to play now and better wait and see how the market flows.It will totally be a different world when this crap is over and will take a year at least.But I tell you Poles will not sell until they need money for food.Banks like in US will try to make a deal with defaulters then take the property.They might make the credit payable in 45 years then 30 years and lower the payments.

lol I just feel bad about all the good beer the restaurants will have to throw.Kegs and kegs.
PolAmKrakow 1 | 433
4 Apr 2020 #101
@Cargo pants

Can you imagine all the beer going bad?! I hadn't thought about that. Huge loss there, but I am sure local breweries will have some kind of programs to help owners that make it through this.

You may be right on Poles not selling until they need it. Those that have paid in full property will be the last. Its those that are mortgaged that will try to get something back from what they have paid in. Young people know when to take money off the table.

I am looking at a Zabka franchise now. One thing that isn't suffering is Zabka and other stores selling those items everyone needs and wants, and that will never change.
Cargo pants 2 | 472
4 Apr 2020 #102
Dude dont go for Zabka.Bad franchise.Its worse then 7/11.You are high priced manager thats all.Working yourself you might make 10/20k a month.I had a 7/11 but they took it away from me lol cuz i realised its a freaking leash on a loose dog. so I stole to take my investment out.If you want to,open your private one.Company controls your every freaking move and sells you the same thing that you can get in open market at 1/2 price.And dont forget the inventory shrinkage is on you which can be massive if you get a wrong employee,which is bound to happen.
delphiandomine 85 | 18,266
4 Apr 2020 #103
I am looking at a Zabka franchise now.

You don't want to do that under any circumstance.

It was in the media last month - tokfm.pl/Tokfm/7,103090,25731169,ajenci-chcieliby-wyjasnienia-skad-wziely-sie-ich-dlugi-spor.html - essentially, there's some major issue with Żabka forcing promotions on franchisees, but then the franchisees have to pay tax on the non-discounted price. As I understand it, let's say there's a "two hot dogs for 5zł" promotion. You have to run the promotion, but then you pay tax on the basis of having received 8zł (the normal price for two hot dogs) from your customers. It's very strange, but well documented. If you look in a typical shop, you'll see that these promotions are everywhere, so you can see how you end up in a mess tax-wise quickly.

There's also some racket involving the franchisee signing some sort of open-ended credit agreement with Żabka, and when the franchise ends, the franchisee gets hit with huge bills under very unclear circumstances. There are examples where franchisees have kept detailed records showing that they owe nothing, but Żabka presents them with bills for hundreds of thousands of złoty.
PolAmKrakow 1 | 433
4 Apr 2020 #104
@delphiandomine

Thank you, I will have attorney review.
Cargo pants 2 | 472
4 Apr 2020 #105
very unclear circumstance

No,Its the inventory shrinkage they ask for.Usually its in thousands.The employee theft is big issue in this game.Franchisee can only buy local produce and bread locally rest has to come from them including freaking napkins which is way over priced.

Like I said you are just a high priced manager.Franchisee thinks he owns the store and works hard like a dog while the company makes money.

@PolamKrakow: Attorney review means crap.When I signed my contract with Southland corp they told me to get attorney review.When my attorney mentioned lots of clauses they told me sorry thats what it is.I was all excited to own a 7/11 and I signed it.They even gave me 7 working day cooling of period to sign and re think there contract.I stole over 600k in 24 months for my investment and made a deal that I will hand over the store but they will not sue me.You definitely dont want to fight a big corp.Trust me its there way or highway.
PolAmKrakow 1 | 433
4 Apr 2020 #106
@Cargo pants

Better off just to have a small local place and buy at a little higher price from wholesalers. Thank you for the heads up.
Cargo pants 2 | 472
4 Apr 2020 #107
No you buy it cheaper.We ran a store in NJ for 22 years.Money is good.lol In Poland there are so many flats/households concentrated.1 store for couple of buildings is enough,where as in States to cater 250 household you need an area of around 5 miles.Still I see these guys dont know how to do business eg:Lottery,they will rent a place in a mall for 20k ,employ 3/4 employees just to freagin run the machine,but not in stores.I know a polish girl who was deported from states and she opened her zabka but couldnt work hard depended on employees they stole and she gave up.
cms neuf - | 1,588
4 Apr 2020 #108
It can work but the problem is that your four best sellers - bus tickets, cigarettes, alcohol and phone tops are all declining markets. That means you have to work your butt off to sell the groceries which is very labor-intensive and very competitive now that Biedronka and Lidl are saturating urban areas.

I think you can make a reasonable living in Zabka but you will have to work hard at it. Setting up on your own would be very difficult - why would people go to you or not to Zabka or Kolporter ?
johnny reb 23 | 4,497
4 Apr 2020 #109
I think a funeral home might be the most secure investment a guy could make right now.
We will always need funeral directors.
Cargo pants 2 | 472
4 Apr 2020 #110
why would people go to you or not to Zabka or Kolporter

It depends where you are and you will be way cheaper then zabka etc.Set up is the main thing,I have never seen a walk in cooler here except in gas stations.They get those free coolers from pepsi,coke etc raising electric costs.I tell you go look at the zabka owner and see how stressed he is with a pen and a pad and will rarely have a talk with you and a private store owner who is standing chatting away.

@ johnn

At one time I was thinking into it and also have the brochures of cremating machines.Those days in 90s they were sending bodies to NY to cremate.They are not cheap .those days they were over 75k for the lowest model.
johnny reb 23 | 4,497
4 Apr 2020 #111
That's cheaper then buying farm equipment to go into farming and a lot less work.
Farm land has always been a very secure investment as they don't make anymore of it and the price always goes up on it.
Cargo pants 2 | 472
4 Apr 2020 #112
lol and if you get the body of a PF member you dont like you can slow toast them:)
cms neuf - | 1,588
4 Apr 2020 #113
Not in Poland - due to Government rules farmland is very difficult to buy and even harder to sell. Banks are stopping accepting it as collateral and prices suffering accordingly. It's nice to walk around it in gumaki though that is about the only pleasure it brings me
johnny reb 23 | 4,497
4 Apr 2020 #114
Not in Poland - due to Government rules farmland

Gee, how convenient .......has anyone ever wondered why ?
Control the food - you control the people.......Control the oil - you control the country.
cms neuf - | 1,588
4 Apr 2020 #115
Yes - a number of reasons, was introduced by PiS in 2015 as a sop to farmers but in some ways has made life more difficult (in old times they could always sell a few ars if they needed a bit of cash)
PolAmKrakow 1 | 433
5 Apr 2020 #116
Was interesting yesterday I went to get some bread, and i went to the local outdoor market, and while it was no where near as crowded as it would be on a nice day, there were still plenty of people shopping in close quarters. Plenty of vendors. No one wearing gloves or masks. Some are clearly taking risk in order to keep cash flowing.


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