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How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis?

delphiandomine 88 | 18,455
2 Apr 2020 #31
Knowing Poles,coming here 20 years they will never sell at loss

Was it you that posted about how most apartments are bought for cash in Poland?

I don't remember where I read it, but they were saying that real estate is likely to be quite fine in Poland as the combination of cash buyers and a need to protect against inflation will keep prices where they are.

About Poles not selling at a loss - yep, they won't.

There is a new building in my neighborhood that is all but empty.

It's quite likely to have been sold regardless. There's still not enough property to meet demand in Polish cities, as Poles don't really like to commute far.
PolAmKrakow 1 | 804
2 Apr 2020 #32

Actually I looked at the building and plenty have not been sold.

When looking at the current inventory, some of which have been listed for 6 or more months, those prices have been coming down. I have been tracking this market for two years, and the growth was and remains completely unsustainable. Coupled with a mass exodus of transient workers over this crisis and you will have owners with investment property scrambling in a few months.

Remember, most investors don't own dozens of properties, they own one or a few to create a nice monthly income. Many are bought on mortgage by younger people speculating in the market. Those people are now unemployed.

All I know is realtors are calling and emailing. They know inventory is very high, and buyers are few. Eventually those with cash will break those without it, it happens all the time. This will be no different the longer this crisis goes on.
Vesko Vukovic 1 | 155
2 Apr 2020 #33
Russian trolls will. be in trouble too - low oil price will bankrupt the gangster state and Putin will have to concentrate on home affairs

What does this have to do with the Polish economy? Try to cure your inferiority complexes, delusions and obsessions somewhere else.
cms neuf - | 1,585
2 Apr 2020 #34
But the rest of my post did - you never mention Poland at all because you are only interested in worthless trolling
Vesko Vukovic 1 | 155
2 Apr 2020 #35
A good part of the PF servers are loaded with your anti-Russian propaganda that is really getting boringly repetitive and that nobody is interested in reading over and over again. My posts are based on facts, which you don't like for obvious reasons, because they interfere with your neoliberal agenda here. Find something better and more productive to do with your spare time other than writing pointless hallucinations that are based on your wishful thinking as well as accusing people of being imaginary Russian trolls that you have no evidence whatsoever to prove.
cms neuf - | 1,585
2 Apr 2020 #36
No - they are loaded with your bs about grave diggers, crammed emergency wards and zombies in Haiti.

Have you ever set foot in Poland ?
Vesko Vukovic 1 | 155
2 Apr 2020 #37
Yes I have, the last time I was there was last November. Some of my relatives live and work there and I have many Polish friends and business associates so I am well aware about what is going on at all times. Look, I understand your frustrations are not really small because as long as people like me are around you will no longer be able to deceive Polish people with your outright lies, deceptions and false propaganda and neo-marxist agenda. ;)
OP pawian 178 | 15,893
2 Apr 2020 #38
I have many Polish friends and business associates

The record number of businesses legally suspended or terminated their activities in March (starting from April). I did it too.
johnny reb 30 | 5,172
2 Apr 2020 #39
as long as people like me are around you will no longer be able to deceive Polish people with your lies, deceptions and false propaganda

More like as long as there are people like me around to correct your hate towards America, in ever one of your Russian trolling posts, with your sensationalism of half truth to deceive people with your hateful propaganda.

It was not "Covid-specific," noting that prisoners have been digging graves on Hart Island for years.
A little Russian propaganda sensationalism lie goes along ways dunnit.
You go through all the news headlines in America and pick out the worst one every day and sensationalize it.
Just like I picked out the headline in your Belgrade newspaper about Belgrade having the most toxic and deadly air in Europe to show you how that game can be played.

Your Russian Troll game is over Vesko.
I did see that Putin sent America a care package though to help us with the virus.
Thanks to Russia.
Poland won't be hit as hard by the economics of this virus because Poland knows how to live on a dime without the bling if they have to.

The Polish have always been a tuff bunch of survivalists.
Vesko Vukovic 1 | 155
2 Apr 2020 #40
Look Johnny no offence, you take any criticism of US government policy as personal, just because PF website is hosted on a US based server doesn't mean that I won't express my opinion and what my thoughts on the US of A are.
Cargo pants 2 | 937
2 Apr 2020 #41
Was it you that posted about how most apartments are bought for cash in Poland?

Yes,infact before 2006/8 most properties bought were in cash.Banks kicked in afterwards.

Many are bought on mortgage by younger people speculating in the market. Those people are now unemployed.

Yes,but those people might loose there property to komurnik,who will auction them off for the bank,and trust me I have been to those auctions in Poland and States,no newbees are entertained there.You might get a ******** of a property thats it,good ones of interest are taken by the old timers in the system.I think you are comparing the system to the one in States here,I tell you the mentality is totally different.Most people loosing properties usually have no equity in them and the bank wants the max out of it.

I have seen properties in market for over 8 years and the owners have not changed the price.They are sitting vacant with for sale sign on them.
OP pawian 178 | 15,893
2 Apr 2020 #42
restaurants, bars etc

The graph from this article shows the falling income of eateries in Poland - 70-80% lower after their closure.

cms neuf - | 1,585
2 Apr 2020 #43
Estimated that 80 percent of Polish businesses would be unable to function with zero income for more than 3 months. Most people will be paying March wages but at the end of April it will be very tricky for some to meet payroll, so that really is the govts timeline for getting some parts of the economy up and running again.
OP pawian 178 | 15,893
2 Apr 2020 #44
Can you imagine the crisis even struck mice supply? I had to check several pet shops before I bought a few last mice that were in stock. The owners told me those were the last supplies and they had no idea about the next ones.

I read scientists need mice and other lab animals like that for experiments on the virus.,nId,4373721
PolAmKrakow 1 | 804
2 Apr 2020 #45
@Cargo pants

If property sits vacant that long, then they are not very good business people. I like making money, not sitting on investments that aren't turning profits. When asked by a real estate agent why I was so passionate about buying a restaurant, I responded I am not passionate about restaurants, I am passionate about opportunity and making money. People with cash on hand, who are ready, will be able to take advantage of this market.

Sure, banks will reposes as soon as they can. But young people will want to get some of their investment back before they lose it all. Young people think differently than the people my age and up. They are a little quicker to cash out. The NASDAQ and DOW have proven that to be true. I suspect the same will prove true for those who look hard enough for deals here.
Cargo pants 2 | 937
2 Apr 2020 #46
I agree with you,but people have different thinking here.If you are looking for restaurant in Warsaw,I can show you 2 which are closed and for sale by owners,1 in Ochota & 1 in Mokotow,all ready and fully equiped.The owners got tired and just closed it,but will not change the price.They are in market for the last 3 years or so.Beautiful restaurants but the owners want the price they ask.I also bought one all ready to go and rented to a Korean restaurant(and sold them all fixtures for 40k) in Mokotov and paid only 7700 a sq m for fully furnished.
PolAmKrakow 1 | 804
2 Apr 2020 #47
@Cargo pants

Not interested in Warsaw market, but thank you for the offer. Going to stick in the south, Krakow or Katowice. I have 4 places I am keeping an eye on now. All turn key. The longer they sit the better IMO, and 3 have already dropped in price in last three weeks, two owned by Italians in Italy. Though the recovery will be slow, people always eat and drink, and eventually the tourists return.
Cargo pants 2 | 937
2 Apr 2020 #48
lol so they were Italians not Poles.Poles will sit on it for years esp if it is paid off before reducing a dime.
PolAmKrakow 1 | 804
2 Apr 2020 #49
That's the problem I think. Real estate here is largely price dirven by the real estate agents telling these owners the "value". So owners in certain markets have unrealistic values placed on certain properties. The real estate market here IMO opinion is very inexperienced when it comes to judging market values and what is actually a salable item and what isn't. When an apartment is listed for about 14000/M2 and it has not been remodeled in 30 years, but the agent determines the value on "comps" in the new buildings around this apartment, you have unrealistic values in many places. This is simply a disservice to the current owner. Its done this way because the buyer is paying the agent, so the agent tries to soak the buyer. When it should be the seller paying. Backward.

For instance; I laughed at a guy who wanted to try to sell me the "ventilation" he had installed for his restaurant to open. Even though it couldn't be removed he thought the completion cost was actually the value of the required equipment for him to operate previously. No depreciation, nothing. Completely ignorant that the hood was over 5 years old, and a replacement could be bought new for less than 2000 pln. The restaurant is currently closed, making no money, so its not even an ongoing concern. I actually laughed in the realtors face not his, but he saw me laugh. Now the same guy is trying to trade his restaurant, and over priced lease for a used car!

There will be a lot of empty store fronts and restaurants in Krakow this summer that's for sure.
Cargo pants 2 | 937
2 Apr 2020 #50
I believe you,this is Poland.It is so much fun when I shut up and listen to the agent or sellers sales pitch trying to screw a foreigner(not all but some).I tell you there is lots of opportunity here but I dont want to work hard anymore.80% of Mcdonalds franchisees are Ukranians in Poland.Ukranians are coming to Poland with lots of money here esp from Odessa.
BritboyByd 7 | 49
2 Apr 2020 #51
I am in the market as a cash buyer for property too, but obviously the timing has to be right. I think buying anything now is too soon, as most people are sheep and are in the "it will be over by summer", bit like the mayor in Jaws. I reckon the nadir will be in about a year to 18months time. The long-term ramifications will be enormous, and ultimately Poland is an emerging economy (or will be perceived as one) and will get hammered with falling domestic prices, and a run on the currency. So I can actually see falls of 30-40% real estate, and for a double-bubble 30-40% falls in the zloty.

So mid poland, a nice 80m2 furnished flat at 7k/m2 now could potentially go from 560,000PLN (£107k) to 400,000PLN (£57k) assuming 30% real estate falls, 30% currency falls. What a time to be alive.

On the polish mindset thing about selling at a loss - the mindset would be to firstly try and rent the place, and then subsidize rent to live with relatives etc, until reality has set in. I have seen property not sell, but listed, for 6 years, who does that? do they want to move or not?
dolnoslask 6 | 3,074
2 Apr 2020 #52
30% currency falls.

Do you really think the zloty will fall 30% against sterling ? if so why?
cms neuf - | 1,585
2 Apr 2020 #53
Prices didn't fall that much in the last crash - was more like a 10 percent fall.

A 30 percent fall against the dollar is possible but unlikely. It's about 7 percent down now. Against the pound then that kind of fall is very unlikely - has not happened since the late 90s when Poland was far more unstable.
Cargo pants 2 | 937
2 Apr 2020 #54
@BritboyBvd,which town are you talking about?In Warsaw 7k a Sqm never going to happen.Yes some towns like Bytom in Silesia,a friend of mine bought a 90 sq m for 112500pln.Poles living in Poland dont care about if currency falls,that is good only for a foreigner bringing money from out of the country.Your estimate of 60 to 80% fall in price is a dream never coming real.Residential sellers are worse sellers,they cling to every grolsh they can as they are on a budget already.Commercial ones are flexible still.
BritboyByd 7 | 49
2 Apr 2020 #55
Do you really think the zloty will fall 30% against sterling ? if so why?

Flight to quality, basically. So as an international investor (bank, sovereign fund) you are going to position your funds with the least risk, so (dollar, euro, gbp, yen etc)

Prices didn't fall that much in the last crash - was more like a 10 percent fall.

Different ball game, as completely under-estimated so far. The ultimate consequence will be less aggregate demand, high unemployment, less cash to chase goods etc.
Methinks, for a few years at least, there will be a paranoia in the autumn of what viruses the winter will bring. Each year will named something new like they do with hurricanes in Florida.

@Cargo pants
Bydgoszcz. I can see 60-80% in my own currency like I illustrated, but 30-40% in zloty terms. Banks wont issue mortgages, or restrict them to very credit worthy borrowers.

Anyway, its just a theory of mine how it will play out, but as discussed earlier in the thread, if you have cash, there will be some great opportunities. If you were highly indebted in the good times, its judgement day.
Cargo pants 2 | 937
2 Apr 2020 #56
You know what,When $ was 2 pln or less,people were all saying how USA is going down and while driving there I would think that all the new cars around would be dumped by the owners and they will walk away without paying for them.NO nothing of that kind happened.Only 30 mil people lost houses etc,then again who cares,we do have 10% not so bright financial planers so what>>>?We went back on track.Same goes with poles.Trust me my man there is no free lunch.
BritboyByd 7 | 49
2 Apr 2020 #57
Good points. Fed reserve and other central banks came all out in that one though. Could slash interest rates, quantative easing etc. This time rates are low, and the stimulus package is just enough for a couple of months of lockdown, by which time a lot of businesses will just shut, jobs lost. What unemployment insurance/state assistance does Poland have if your business folds, you have debts, or lose your job?
Rich Mazur 4 | 3,159
2 Apr 2020 #58
Fed reserve

You mean the thieves who managed to buy the US Treasury notes with the money they found in America's savers' accounts because they have none of their own? Those "feds"?

You don't have to answer as that was a rhetorical question.
BritboyByd 7 | 49
2 Apr 2020 #59
Those "feds"?

Agree they are scum, and the politicians just bailout their big buddy mates like Richard Branson etc, whilst the little guy gets shafted. Every economic crash is the same: banks and large corporates win, due to being "too big too fail" etc.
cms neuf - | 1,585
2 Apr 2020 #60
Sterling won't be included in any flight to quality this time round - too much govt debt, Brexit, too volatile over the last 5 years. There are some upsides but your average sovereign fund manager won't want to stand up and spend hours justifying to his bosses why he is taking the risk.

Yes in Bydgoszcz you might get some good value at the moment. but I wouldn't have thought there are too many furnished places on the market ?

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