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How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis?


pawian 170 | 11,349
29 Mar 2020 #1
Rumour has it that in autumn 2020 Poland will face an economic collapse, with 10% unemployment. Allegedly, the current government has ordered analysis which predict a catastrophe. Of course, the results are kept secret not to cause panick.

Many people are already jobless, especially those employed in services. And the prospects are very gloomy for them. The government has passed "the anti-crisis shield for economy" but it is widely critisized as not sufficient and with too many loopsholes.

pap.pl/en/news/news%2C608264%2Cpoland-launches-economic-package-counter-virus-effect.html
jon357 63 | 15,214
29 Mar 2020 #2
Inflation is rising here, almost 5% now!
OP pawian 170 | 11,349
29 Mar 2020 #3
Yes, and it is not the end of the increase. The National Bank has just "printed" 19 billion zlotys to get the anti-crisis shield running.

comparic.pl/nbp-finansuje-tarcze-antykryzysowa-wydrukowal-juz-niemal-19-mld-zl/
Cargo pants 2 | 476
30 Mar 2020 #4
I think and hope the curve has started here.4 deaths today already.
Torq 32 | 2,999
30 Mar 2020 #5
The National Bank has just "printed" 19 billion zlotys to get the anti-crisis shield running.

...and out of over 200 billion that the government is going to spend on "the shield", 70 billion will go directly to various banks. :-/
OP pawian 170 | 11,349
31 Mar 2020 #6
with 10% unemployment.

Poles returning from abroad are looking for work which is no longer here.

businessinsider.com.pl/firmy/koronawirus-w-polsce-czeka-nas-gigantyczne-bezrobocie/jmyey3k
Rich Mazur 4 | 3,752
31 Mar 2020 #7
work which is no longer here.

The rest of that iceberg being automation and AI. People are obsolete.
OP pawian 170 | 11,349
1 Apr 2020 #8
Talking about traditional industrial countries, of course. But now we have moved to postindustrial era, or even further, but I forgot the name of it.
jackrussel
1 Apr 2020 #9
Big open layout offices where getting infected is easy are obsolete. Hopefully corps like HP, Citi, SAP, IBM etc. will start offering work from home to their desk monkeys (I am one so no offense intended!)
OP pawian 170 | 11,349
1 Apr 2020 #10
Various experts predict the Polish GNP will fall from 2.5 to 4% this year.

rp.pl/Gospodarka/303319899-Recesja-jest-juz-faktem-Skale-zniszczen-dopiero-poznamy.html
BritboyByd 7 | 45
1 Apr 2020 #11
I think Poland will be enormously hit. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if Poland doesn't go back to Communism! Nothing is getting done, extremely limited commerce. There will be a flood of unemployment to come. The tap will be switched back on very slowly, when it gets switched back on, but it wont help those made unemployed as a result of it.
OP pawian 170 | 11,349
1 Apr 2020 #12
Let`s make a list of branches which are going to suffer the most:

tourist industry - hotels, guest houses, airlines, travel agencies,
shopping malls and smaller shops
restaurants, bars etc
theatres, cinemas concert halls etc
sport clubs, gyms etc
transport
spas

Shyt, that`s millions of people.
Cargo pants 2 | 476
1 Apr 2020 #13
list of branches

@pawian
Urzad Skarbowy
Landlords.
johnny reb 23 | 4,518
1 Apr 2020 #14
which are going to suffer the most: tourist industry -

This will make for an excellent time for me to visit Poland then.
Fewer tourist, lots of choices, lower prices with people competing, lower hotel rates, no over crowding on the trains or restaurants, my U.S.D. will go further.

Perfect unless everyone else is thinking like me.
cms neuf - | 1,589
1 Apr 2020 #15
People you never think about - IT consultants for example as companies will cancel their projects when they are short of cash.

Same for cars and house builders, people won't have cash

It's been an employees market for about 5 years and the sudden swing will come as a shock to young people especially

Russian trolls will. be in trouble too - low oil price will bankrupt the gangster state and Putin will have to concentrate on home affairs
PolAmKrakow 1 | 434
1 Apr 2020 #16
@johnny reb

Bringing USD over here in bunches since March 3. Love getting over 4 pln for 1 usd

Where there is problems, there are also opportunities. I almost bought a restaurant in January, but owner would take my offer that was 20K less than asking price. Funny now when its still on the market for less than what I offered three months ago. Cant wait till May to go back to him.
dolnoslask 5 | 2,871
1 Apr 2020 #17
Just shifted £10000 to zl got a exchange rate of 5.19, not bad. not been that good for a long while.
cms neuf - | 1,589
1 Apr 2020 #18
Try and get the rent down too before you buy a restaurant - if it's a good location you could do well as more people will stay in Poland for holidays. But try and get that fixed cost low !
Crow 139 | 8,609
1 Apr 2020 #19
Very hard, being vassal state of western Europe. Better to have closer ties with Central and Eastern Europe. Money is on the East.
OP pawian 170 | 11,349
1 Apr 2020 #20
I almost bought a restaurant in January,

I almost bought a flat but decided to wait a little more. That was a good decision. Now the prices are going to drop really huge.
PolAmKrakow 1 | 434
1 Apr 2020 #21
Cash is always king. Good times or bad. Those who prepare for these kinds of opportunities come out far ahead.

Fixed costs of rent will plummet in Poland. Prices already going down. Several places I looked at months ago, the real estate people are emailing begging for an offer. The over saturated housing market is about to get deeply cut. Developers who are not prepared are going to get killed. Here in Krakow it will be a buyers market come May 1.

Being a real estate agent, or holding a bunch of vacant property at this time is about the worst position you can be in. The longer this goes on, the more people need to sell to survive personally.

Some people call me a negative person because I always look for a bottom or worst case scenario. This is worst case scenario like never seen since the Depression, and will make 2008 look like a carnival.
OP pawian 170 | 11,349
1 Apr 2020 #22
I am afraid so.

The over saturated housing market is about to get deeply cut

That is good. The loss of part of my income will be compensated by lower prices of real estate. There is always balance in nature - that is why I love nature. :):)

Being a real estate agent,

Last year I remember you mentioned being also involved in real estate market. Do I remember correctly or mistook you for sb else?
Cargo pants 2 | 476
1 Apr 2020 #23
Price will not go down of prime properties and some owners who had/have outrageous prices will still be asking the same.Some who are stuck with loans etc might want to cash out.Poles usually never cut price until they seriously need money.Yes developers will be in trouble with residentials thats why I stick to commercials.
OP pawian 170 | 11,349
1 Apr 2020 #24
Price will not go down of prime properties

Like in the Old Towns, for example?
PolAmKrakow 1 | 434
1 Apr 2020 #26
I will use Krakow as an example because I have been tracking the over saturated market for two years. Prices were stagnant until this event for the last 18 months. Zero growth in retail pricing. That alone, will eventually trigger an downward trend. Prime properties on rynek or something will always remain high. There is a new building in my neighborhood that is all but empty. Other buildings a few blocks away with serious vacancies for rental market, and prices already coming down.

Krakow has far too many buildings under construction that are scheduled to finish this year. Couple that with about 2 million Ukraine leaving Poland rental market to head home in the last three weeks, and you have a a crater forming that can not be filled.

Most of these rental properties are mortgaged by their owners, and renters are paying the mortgage. That is until there are not enough renters, and people cant afford the rent. In Krakow it will be worse than 2008. I will bet on a 15 to 20 percent market correction on non commercial real estate in the next 12 months. Commercial will go down too, but not as much. That said, if investors arent spending money, commercial other than retail space is going to take a beating.
Cargo pants 2 | 476
1 Apr 2020 #27
Knowing Poles,coming here 20 years they will never sell at loss.Yes from developers you can get cheaper..Most of my tenants asked for 1/2 rent for April as they had already paid for March and I gladly agreed.Honestly if they even just paid spodzelnia and asked for whole month I would have agreed.I feel bad for them as most are restaurants and beauty salons and most are totally shut down.Even backhome in States I have been getting mails for 1/2 rent and I am agreeing.

In Krakow it will be worse than 2008

There was no such thing in Poland then,prices were going up constantly even then.Poland has never seen a down trend in real estate price for the last 20 years that I know of and I doubt I will in near future.
OP pawian 170 | 11,349
1 Apr 2020 #28
Urzad Skarbowy
Landlords.

Thanks for adding them.

Generally, most services will suffer. When going shopping, I drive past a large car garage where I have had my car serviced. They have been closed for two weeks now - I don`t know if for fear or lack of customers.
Cargo pants 2 | 476
1 Apr 2020 #29
I guess both.Getting my car serviced will be the least of an idea in this crazy time and exposure to China virus is scary.
PolAmKrakow 1 | 434
2 Apr 2020 #30
@Cargo pants

You may be right. Maybe they wont sell at a loss. I will look at it the other way though. While this virus rages on in other countries and Europe recovers, tourism will not come back for months. Unemployment will continue to rise for at least three months after this event, on this continent and North America. Migrant Ukraine workers will not come back right away to fill the rental market. They will have spent their money on living in Ukraine, so service industries will also have a hard time recovering.

There is no quick stimulus that rescues a global economy. When a global event happens, this will take a year or years to recover from. When that happens, and people need money to eat and pay their own bills, they get rid of investments. Gold and valuables will come first. Real estate will come too. When there are only a few buyers, and too many sellers, people will bring prices down.


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