Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 17

Hey, Tacitus, did you catch THAT?

Novi, did you catch that Russia lost coz Putin didn `t achieve his main goals???

The proof of funds will be written on my dupa LOL

I will donate 50 euros to the Pf fund if this war is stopped by the 7th January - that is Christmas day in North Nigeria

@Novichok


No, because it is patently nonsense. Russia is - and those are just the official numbers - dedicating 40% of its budget in 2025 for its' war against Ukraine. It has already lost more men and material in this war than the USA has in all of its' wars since 1945 combined and may end up with more casualties than the USA suffered in WWII.


What? Some kind of proverb that is supposed to sound smart, yet only highlights' ones ignorance?

The plain truth is that as costly as the war may be for Ukraine, there is no alternative for Ukraine but to continue. You may say that Ukraine needs to negotiate, but Putin has made it clear seeks nothing but Ukraine's surrender.


Their bombers don't even dare to enter Ukrainian air space.

Which means death or gulag suffering to millions of patriotic Ukrainians captured by Putinists.

Similarly, Novi or Polam could argue that Poland should have surrendered in 1920 when Bolsheviks were storming the outskirts of Warsaw.

So why would russia want to negotiate?

Negotiations aren't something Ukraine can just decide to do, you have to get the russians to the table too.

The "leak" by an oligarch of likely russian preconditions to negotiations (mostly disinfo but probably with a kernel or so of truth hidden inside) is informative...

So, again.... how are they going to get the russians to the table?

And, what provisions are going to be made when russia breaks whatever agreement is reached through negotiations?

Without that all you have is unconditional Ukrainian surrender.... (and mass killings and a new refugee crisis).

@pawian
I am not only assimilating, but completely integrating. I speak Polish, not well, every day, and communicate with Poles in Polish. I have both US and Poland born children. The best of both worlds. I am only torn between Poland and the US when it effects my children, grand children or taxes, in that order.

@mafketis
Why would Russia want to negotiate? Simple, the money flows through the US, and Vlad knows it. When it comes to market manipulation, no one is better than the US for stocks or comodities. Russia will come to the table so they can sell oil above the sanctioned rate. That alone is enough.

We will see... my prediction is Trump will make a goodwill gesture and putin will try to humiliate him (cause that's how he rolls). Then the question is will Trump sack up or slink away like a whipped dog.... (50/50 odds).

Lots of Ukrainian kids in Polish schools, I've had Ukrainian students (been here a while) and some don't even have accents in Polish. So lots of variation, there are fewer where I am than in Krakow which might affect things some.

There were job adverts in Ukrainian long before the invasion.

My feeling is that r*SSia and China have planned the next few moves like a game of chess. trumpet is their bıtch and knows it. Putain's forthcoming visit to Modi is doubtless part of this.

If that "SMO" was all Russia could do, NATO arnies would already be as close to Moscow as yours were in 1941.


Because precision wars are more expensive than any other kind - especially the "bomb everything and everybody" kind.

Russia is entitled to two 10kt nukes and 200,000 dead enemies to match the US . Plus one Dresden...

Rounding up all Jews and killing them in Auschwitz was simpler and less expensive than investigating each separately and having a trial.

In that sense, you were a model of efficiency. The world was grateful to you for this MO. This and executing American POWs made killing Germans a lot easier.

I appreciate that you didn't complain about Russians making unauthorized love to German women in Berlin.

Russian soldiers are mutinying!

He will have to send in the NK troops as the Russians flee.

They are busy watching **** on their phones. In NK they don't have that.

When dust settle down or rather, as dust is still up high, Poland can hope to acquire Kaunas and Vilnus in continental Lithuania. Rest would go to Belarus and probably Kaliningrad itself as a reward. Lavov? Maybe. But, Slovakia, Hungary and Russia takes lavish chunks.

So, as I said, Poland will expand on its Western and up Northern borders.

In the meanwhile, we Serbians have to consolidate South, East, the South-East, then West. What to tell you. A lot of to be liberated from slavery and introduce to freedom and democracy.

Take this in the background.

A Serbian girl was picking flowers in Kosovo

Now, just over a month from Trump taking office, the UK is falling in line with big brother. Starmer now publicly saying that Ukraine needs to be put in a stron position to negotiate for peace. Where is all the cheerleading now that Ukraine must continue to fight until Russia is out? Every leader in the world see's the writing on the wall.

Peace in Ukraine will look like this; No NATO in Ukraine. A DMZ similar to NK/SK, Russia will maintain control of the territory it has captured, but it wont be recognized as Russian territory by the rest of the world. Sanctions on oil from Russia will be lifted and reparations will be paid to Ukraine for loss of life and property. Then the US MIC will turn its eyes toward Taiwan and the middle east for its next wars, and the rest of us in Europe can relax for the next ten years or so until someone else gets stupid.

Sir Keir to you. His position on r*SSia has not changed.


A strong position? Of course. r*SSia must be seen to lose.


They won't.

Now run along and contribute to society.

So... the dastardly MIC has been manipulating Xi into all that rhetoric about taking Taiwan? And it's been behind China redrawing its maps to include parts of other countries

Is this "MIC" in the room now?

Meanwhile in russia, with no other problems the Duma is set to tackle the burning issue of people walking and smoking at the same time....

x.com/wartranslated/status/1863863410259091831

Probably the motivation is to have an excuse to arrest young men then send them to the front to fertilize the soil...

Sounds pragmatic....such a treaty will surely be sweetened for Ukraine with re-construction help funds from the EU plus some more preferential treatment from the West, contrary to Russia!

@mafketis
The US MIC and economic policy toward China has absolutely pushed the Taiwan policy. Xi was praying for Harris to win and continue Bidens stupid policies toward Ukraine and Israel. Now, the war in Ukraine will end and Xi will have to deal with Trump. Delaing with Trump is problematic because a bipartisan group in congress supports facing off against China over Taiwan. Watch how Xi will back off come the end of January.

"With the bitter experience of the Budapest Memorandum behind us, we will not accept any alternatives, surrogates or substitutes for Ukraine's full membership in NATO," said the Ukraine Foreign Ministry. And this is exactly when NATO needs to tell Ukraine to FO its not going to happen. Who are these people to demand anything? Ukraine is constantly begging for more and more, and there is no end to what they want. NATO is not going to happen for Z, and Ukraine needs to rewrite their constitution to get rid of any mention of NATO.

Desperate people that want to protect their country?

There is "no end to what they want" ?

There is a very clear end

North Nigerian troops out of Ukraine
A return to 1992 borders
Security guarantees
Compensation for the destruction
Justice for the war criminals

That's it - 5 demands

@Lenka
Great, its not the responsibility of NATO. Thanks and good luck. If the EU wants responsibility, great, have at it.

@cms neuf
three of five will never happen.

It is not but your question wasn't about that, was it. Ukraine wanting/ seeking NATO membership is only natural

People have to make a decision. Either we openly say we don't care and leave countries being attacked face their fate or we try to help.
At the moment it's pretending that it would be done for Ukraine. It's like spitting in their face.

So if North Nigeria doesn't accept those perfectly reasonable requests, they better get used to permanent sanctions

Trump's guy says it will be more than just oil sanctions, but likely banking sanctions as well. In the end, if we do a peace deal with each other - it will be a total lifting of all sanctions. That seems far fetched, since I don't think Ukraine will ever sign a peace treaty.

Source: cnn.com/2024/11/29/europe/trump-new-ukraine-envoy-analysis-intl?cid=ios_app

Trump's Ukraine/Russia envoy - Kellogg - rolled out his draft peace plan a couple of months ago in a paper written for the America First Policy Institute.

People in Russia and Ukraine have been studying it, ever since his appointment last week. So far, it looks like it's much more favorable to us than it is for Ukraine.

Broken down in its component pieces, with direct quotes from a recent CNN article covering his plan:

1) The plan says it should become "a formal US policy to seek a ceasefire and negotiated settlement."

2) It says future US aid - likely given as a loan - will be conditioned on Ukraine negotiating with Russia.

3) The frontlines would be frozen by a ceasefire, and a demilitarized zone imposed. For agreeing to this, Russia would get limited sanctions relief.

4) Full relief only when a peace deal is signed that is to Ukraine's liking.

5) A levy on Russian energy exports would pay for Ukraine's reconstruction.

6) Ukraine would not be asked to give up on reclaiming occupied territory, but it would agree to pursue it through diplomacy alone. It accepts "this would require a future diplomatic breakthrough which probably will not occur before Putin leaves office."

P.S. Technically, we don't have a peace treaty with Japan, because Japan doesn't want to recognize our control of the Kuril Islands and South Sakhalin. This hasn't really affected life in any way.

@Novichok


Are those "NATO armies" in the room with you? Nobody in NATO wanted to relocate armies to Eastern Europe.

Thanks to Putin's initial invasion of Ukraine in 2014, there are now NATO soldiers in thr Baltic states.

Thanks to Putin's invasion of 2022, St. Peterburg is now in close proximity to a NATO member state.

Putin is currently busy ruining the Russian army and economy while fighting a non-NATO state (whose membership would not even be remotely thinkeable without Russian agression).


Nothing about the Russian conduct in these war is "precise". Not the sloppy initial push at Kiev. Nor the rockets and bombs dropped at civilians or how they destroy each and every village in their path. Russia just happens to have more men and material, so they can afford to spend them so carelessly, at least until now.


This isn't a rematch of the "Great Patriotic war". Russia is not fighting against a mighty agressor. They are the agressor, invading a much smaller country. And in a proud Russian tradition, they tend to do poorly when they can not wait for the enemy exhaust himself on their own soil while throwing serfs at them. Russia on its' own tends to do poorly. 1905, WWI, Finnland, Afghanistan, the examples are plenty. And China does not seem prepared to offer aid comparable to the American aid in WWII.

In 1905, hostilities began after a surprise Japanese attack on our Pacific Fleet stationed in Port Arthur, Manchuria.

In WWI we were again not acting "on our own", but it was your Wilhelm II that started that - because he was a goddamned retard.

Finland - we won. Open a book if you are in doubt.

Afghanistan we won literally within 72 hrs. I think you mean we had issues supporting the socialist government against an Islamist insurgency fueled by the Saudis and the CIA.

I think the biggest problem is the fact they wouldn't have any guarantees it won't happen again. And again. And again.

The biggest problem is that any Ukrainian president which signs a conclusive peace treaty with Russia, recognizing that those territories are lost forever, would be a political dead man.

That is, unless the political landscape in Ukraine doesn't evolve in some unpredictable new direction, where they begin to instead place the blame on the West and experience major "Stockholm Syndrome" like the Georgians now.

In 2008, I could have never predicted that following our war against them, that one day there would be a government in Georgia that:

1) Refuses to provide Ukraine with the very same weapons Ukraine provided them in 2008

2) Daily talks about how Ukraine's government led it down a path of ruin by trusting the West, and that Georgia must learn from it

3) That would be asking us daily to lift visa restrictions and open our markets to Georgian exports

4) That would put Mikheil Saakashvilli in jail

So... I guess anything is possible.

There's already some small signs that the Ukrainian electorate is losing faith in the West. Maybe this will only grow, until one day it turns into full blown resentment.