PO-PiS again neck and neck

Perhaps because that's where they really are?


None at all. The Sejm is heavily against them, the three other biggest parties all would refuse to do a deal with them - 33% simply isn't enough. Even 40% wouldn't be enough - the other parties would simply force another election.

Whatever helps this delph sleep at night

The statistics speak for themselves : Jaro has lost 14 elections as a party leader and won 2.

According to CBOS poll 26% would vote for PiS and 23% for PO:
tvn24.pl/wiadomosci-z-kraju,3/sondaz-pis-liderem-po-sie-stacza-w-sejmie-tylko-cztery-partie,326378.html


I agree.

Seems much more reliable to me - a lot of voters that are completely undecided.

The problem is that PiS need much more than that 26% - those undecided voters are probably ****** off with PO, but who would never vote for PiS in the current form. They might vote SLD, they might vote RP, they might vote PO - but not PiS. I know quite a few people like this who aren't PO voters, but who will probably vote PO because of the lack of an alternative.

The danger for PO is that they only get 30% of the vote or so, forcing them into a coalition with two (or more) parties. PiS are no threat - the biggest threat to PO is having to form a coalition that doesn't work.

And yet people like you, who can't stand Kaczynski or PiS, almost seem to get nervous enough, when there is talk of him being ahead, that you have to quickly shoot it down, much like TVN and Polsat bring in their experts to shoot down any possible hint that PiS is gaining in popularity, with their very far fetched explanations as to what is really going on. How PO can possibly win the next election, given what has gone on, is beyond me. I wouldn't be surprised if they did though. I mean, they won the last one, despite what went on before that.

Nervous? We've been telling the same story for years - that Kaczynski as leader of PiS has no chance.

How PO will win? It's pretty simple. Voters don't like PiS in the current form. Kaczynski is more or less unelectable after his performance as Prime Minister last time round, and the polls consistently show him to be one of the least trustworthy politicians in Poland. But he retains an iron grip on power within PiS, while the party lost much of the best talent that they had. Without Ziobro (a very, very smart guy - able to change his tune to fit the audience) - they really have barely any political talent left, and with it goes any chance of them getting elected.

PO aren't perfect, many voters are getting fed up with them (voter fatigue) - but there is no other choice for the centrist voter that dominates Polish politics. If you look at the history of Polish elections, the centre ground has won virtually every single one - yes, including 2005, when PiS fought a very centrist campaign. PiS are appealling to a minority of voters, and with it, they have no chance.

Not to mention that PiS have alienated every single possible coalition partner. They abused the PSL, they abused the SLD, they abused PO, they abused RP - who else is there?

Once Kaczynski goes (for real) - the party will change to a proper Catholic-Socialist party that doesn't care about Smolensk or Lech Kaczynski, and with it, they will flourish and probably win an election. But now? No chance.

It is unlikely for PiS to win outright, even though Kaczyński says he is aiming for that goal. But, so far, if I recall correctly, since 1989 no party has been able to rule alone and have a parliamentary majority.

But if PiS got 38% of the vote in the 2015 election (and it could well get more!) and PSL got 12 (PSL will team up with anyone to stay in power!), then they could form a coalition government. Other results might be: PO 27%, SLD 15%, Palikot 6%.

Even if the PO teamed up with SLD, it would have only a 42% coalition. That would cause great ferment in the PO ranks amongst Solidarity-rooted, anti-communist or otherwise conervative voters.

As it stands, already many PO voters feel 'warm tap water' Tusk is burnt out. Tehy see he is dredging up controversial ersatz topics such as 'homo unions' which the media are sure to whip into a frenzy. instead of the things most people are concerned about: unemployment, layoffs, trash contracts, low wages, high taxes, uncompleted motorways, collapse of the healthcare system and many more. Above all, he is absorbing the media with like cabinet reshuffles and party elections. Poles don't care if this or that minister is named Nowak, Kowalski or Sokołowski, as long as he gets the job done.

This is exactly why PiS are doomed to fail with Kaczynski. He has little to no understanding of political strategy - and I suspect that without Ziobro helping him, the party is even less likely to be able to form a viable coalition.


Correct. The best ever performance was 41% as far as I remember.


They could, but PiS have been very vocal in the past about the PSL - Kaczynski said some bad things about them, and they were accused of many things. The PSL without Pawlak are also incredibly weak - so 12% would seem to be unachievable for them. I'm also not convinced that PSL voters would be happy with coalition with PiS (with Kaczynski as leader).


That would be a disaster for PO, yet - I think you're actually right in saying that this is possible. I don't think PO have much of a chance of forming another two-party coalition after the next election, but a deal very well might be done in terms of pushing a liberal economic agenda and refraining from social issues.


Absolutely. It's been mooted that PO/SLD could form an electoral coalition, but it would certainly be controversial. It's worth pointing out that PO do have quite a few conservative voters that hate Kaczynski (and thus vote PO as a result).


Tusk isn't finished yet. Remember, Tusk is seen as the glue in PO - he somewhat successfully managed to bridge conservative and liberal voters. In fact, this assumption by the oppositon that Tusk is finished is very, very dangerous - they're making the same assumption as in 2007 - that they will win and that Tusk is no threat.

I've said it many times before and I'll say it again - PiS will never win an election again as long as Kaczynski rules the party. When he goes? Interesting times. Remember, people like Gowin absolutely despise Kaczynski and the people that he surrounds himself with (Macierewicz et al) - but they don't have any issue with normal Catholic-Socialist individuals.

Not happening. Certainly not with DuckBoy as leader. If they dropped the politics of bitterness, hate & envy, they'd have a chance of getting 38%; but then they wouldn't be PiS if they didn't have all that bitterness, hate & envy.


Bingo.


One does wonder why certain persons from the media are quite so obsessed with homosexuality. I'd say that a very high percentage of them are Friends of Aslan.


Given that banning Sunday trading will doubtless lead to more unemployment, more layoff and lower wages, perhaps we could start by having a very public statement that Sunday trading will not be banned under any circumstances.

Especially now that all their talented politicians have left for other pastures - they've been left with little more than sycophants. I can imagine Ziobro coming back and deposing Kaczynski after the next election, however.


Definitely so. They also seem to think about it far more than the average homosexual.


Indeed, I imagine plenty of supermarket workers are quite afraid that they'll lose 1/7th or more of their salary at the minute.

:)))

It's not just supermarkets, it's pretty much all retail industry staff who are worried. There would be reduction in staff by 1/7th and a reduction in wages by more than that (as Sundays are paid at a higher rate).

And it's not just retail industry, there are also all the leisure industry workers who work at venues that are part of 'shopping & leisure' developments, their hours, job and wages would also be cut; as would all the staff who work in the gastronomy sector businesses located in malls and the ones which rely on shopping-driven footfall. And then we can add in the cut in construction industry jobs as fewer shopping developments are constructed due to less shopping being done.

Lucky that PiS won't notice all those lost votes until after they're trying to work out how they managed to lose yet another election (even then they'll probably just put that lose also down to a conspiracy against them by the Jews in the media, just like the last times).


As a heterosexual male, I think about sex maybe a couple of times per day; we can probably assume that homosexual males are very similar. But judging by their posts here, our resident Friends of Aslan are thinking about homosexual sex at least several times an hour. Most bizarre.

Now please somethin about Kaczyński's father in PZPR and Jedwabne on top of that :)))

The know-all Three Stooges claim to be oh-so-western democrats who allegedly believe in judicial impartiality and that people are presumed innocent until convicted. Hiow then can they besmirch people (Kaczyński's dad for instance) on the basis of not even circumstantial evidence but conjecture and innuendo the way the Stalinists did. You had an aunt in Canada, so that would make you an 'enemy of the people'. Someone worked at the US embassy so he must have been in cahoots with the Bieruts, Bermans, Fejgins, Romkowskis, Zambrowskis, Minces and Szechters of this world. I reckon that's stooge logic for you!

And what does heterosexual or homosexual sex have to do with the title of the thread which is "PiS 33, PO 28 - survey shows"? I would understand it if either of the parties concerned reached 69 in a survey, but with only 28 or 33? Time to lit a cigar with a 50-zloty banknote now ...

Not a single word to address any of the issues and instead a post filled with insults, bitterness and hatred. Clearly you know that you're on the losing end of the discussion, yet again. But well done getting most of the hallmarks of PiS politics into your post.


You'd need to ask the poster who first saw fit to bring the subject up here.


Didn't you just ask a question about posting things which might not have much to do with the title of this thread?

I wouldn't be putting all eggs into one basket. If that corrupt the the core regime will case to be in power - good. However I wouldn't be expecting much from PiS.

I think that the national option given a time will mature enough to put its weight onto political scene.

am I missing something here... when was the last time it was up?

The question is: are we in that crucial moment when the future of PO is being decided or not? Most interesting are the political analyses of Roman Giertych, a former minister in the government of Jaro, but now a stringent opponent to the concept of the "Fourth Republic", but who at present distances himself from both parties. In his latest interview to the Rzeczpospolita" daily, he advocates that the so-called reconstruction of the Tusk government should begin with the stepping down of... Tusk from the the post of the PM. Otherwise, he argues, PO risks to loose even more voters and if that happens it is very likely that in the end Jaro will become PM and Antoni Macierewicz may become Home Secretary. A certain rift within the PO party has begun to show itself with Jarosław Gowin's recent famous letter to the members of PO in which he pointed out - among other things - to the arrogance of some party barons (litting cigars with 50-zloty banknotes may serve as a certain symbol of things which he describes in them). All this was preceded by the successful calling off of Elbląg's PO mayor and city council (a constituency in which PO reached above-the-mean results in 2007 and 2011 elections), and the results of the by-election in Rybnik where the PiS candidate, Bronisław Piecha, gynaecologist, has won securing 28,48 % of votes.


Is it a new name for the so well-known here on the PF "Anglo-Australian Gang of Three"?

Polonius, you seem to be rather well educated as to the chicanery of the PRL. Could you perhaps explain how you were able to remain as a foreign journalist at a time when many foreign journalists were expelled from Poland?


Nope. The party is still very strong, and minor acts of disobedience (such as this proposal for closing supermarkets) do not threaten the party as such.


I think - for all his dreadful past, he is a smart guy.


It won't happen - Macierewicz and Kaczynski are posioned goods. For that to happen, they need Kaczynski to be appointed as the Prime Minister - which won't happen in the current political landscape. The SLD/PSL/etc would demand his head as the price of supporting a PiS government.


Gowin is playing a much smarter game. He doesn't have the support of the party, but he knows that a lost leadership campaign will give him national attention - which will put him in the driving seat for winning the Krakow presidential election. He is strong in Krakow, he fits the conservative voters of the city - in short, it's all a game.

How do you know that, I assume he told you?

If that happens at least we won't need to worry about any Polish government members dying in plane crashes: they will all travel everywhere on the backs of squadrons of highly trained flying pigs.


Did it have something to do with faithfully reporting the latest 'internal surveys' which the Party had produced and which were more accurate than the word of God?

It was the private information I was asking about.

are you privy to such information?


Delphine the key world here is education. You could use some of it.


That dude is full of shyte and there is nothing interesting about his ramblings.


They all cemented by the collective responsibility.

Kaczyński has overdone the Smolensk thing and just for overall wear and tear may also be burnt out like Tusk. People get tired of seeing the same leaders over and over on the telly. But a PiS headed by Błaszczak or Hofman (or someone who has yet to come to the fore) might garner more than a mere 38% of the vote. Since in politics most anything is possible, a reconciliaton with the Ziobro group cannot be ruled out, also with PJN. Pożyjemy, zobaczymy!

Well PiS is one issue but there are other forces at play. I think National Movement would be a good thing.

A civilised national movement like that advocated by Dmowksi maybe, but the young tatoo-thug style street brawlers of the ONR and MWP are little more than the flip side of the anarchist scum. Both sides are mainly in it for the punch-ups and adrenalin rush, even thrtough their leaders may spout all sorts of pious platitudes as to what they're allegedly all about. Patriotism - yes, chauvinism and violence -- no! PiS comes closest to that ideal but it is far from perfect.

I think that a reconciliation with Solidarna Polska is more than possible. They might have gotten 'kicked out' of ****, but they're politics are still very close to PiS, so it would be the most logical option. As for PiS having a different guy in charge, I think this is needed. Not because I think Kaczynski is a bad leader, I just think that mainstream media basically ruined him to the point of no return. People are very against him. Not sure Hoffman would be a great choice. I don't mind the guy, but I think he is one of those PiS politicians that anti PiS people, or even neutrals, would dislike, because he pretty much says what he thinks, no sugaring, and lacks a certain diplomacy that politicians need to have [something Tusk has cunningly mastered actually, the sly one].

Sure it's nothing good but the choice is like between spending a weekend with Fritzl or with some random boring guy.