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Poland economy is slowing down - how does it affect you?


TheOther 5 | 3,716
28 Sep 2012  #31
And 12% isn't that much by European terms - the 25% in Spain (with a giant welfare bill to match) is much more damaging.

You forgot to add the people who left Poland since 1989. I bet that the country would have about the same unemployment rate as Spain if they would've stayed.
delphiandomine 84 | 17,703
28 Sep 2012  #32
Not really - the worst that it ever got in the III RP was 20% - from around 2002 to the start of 2004 when the SLD really stopped funding the loss making state owned businesses. At least in Western Poland, there's still plenty of jobs available if you just want to work. But again - even if it was 20%, it wouldn't matter - Poland doesn't have a 'welfare state' and is based upon household rather than personal income.

Curiously, I met a Spanish guy handing out leaflets in Poznan - that was very very very strange.
milky 13 | 1,657
28 Sep 2012  #33
f stop:
Why the US unemployment, at 8 %, is all doom and gloom, while Poland, at 12% unemployment rate is a toast of Europe?

and! if the Poles abroad returned as surveys show that they want to , well then,, we might see the actual unemployment of Poles sky rocket. Also anybody on 1300 zloty or less is as good as unemployed economically.
pantsless 1 | 267
28 Sep 2012  #34
I'm pretty certain you won't be able to provide empirical evidence for this, just "word on the street".

Well you caught me, it's was a made up story for me to post something on PF as I've got nothing better to do. I said in my first post that what I was about to write is "general sounding" and it's what I saw/heard/experienced at a local level and I something I saw affecting more and more people and outside of one or two industries I've already been seeing massive problems (construction and manufacturing, primarily exported goods) and the entire automotive market including used/new car sales and repairs. Werid though... since when did anybody on this forum care about empirical evidence and things like facts?
Harry
28 Sep 2012  #35
Also anybody on 1300 zloty or less

The minimum wage in Poland is more than 15% higher than that.
TheOther 5 | 3,716
28 Sep 2012  #36
Poland doesn't have a 'welfare state' and is based upon household rather than personal income.

Tell me, are families really willing to support unemployed relatives over a longer period of time? What about families in which all adults are without a job? They don't have the opportunity to support anyone besides themselves. The family support system you were describing sounds more like a short term solution. Long term? Not really an option. So what do people do? Yup ... leaving the country ...
cms 9 | 1,287
28 Sep 2012  #37
Surprising thing happened to me this week. Advertised two bog standard jobs for which pay 2000 to 3000 zloty and got over 500 applications. This time last year it would be 40 or 50. I think youth and graduate unemployment is actually showing really damaging trends.
InWroclaw 89 | 1,915
28 Sep 2012  #38
Thanks for posting that observation, would you be prepared to say whereabouts these jobs are, perhaps state the region if not the town?

I hear the same thing about jobs being scarce here in Wroclaw yet the shopping malls are really busy and everything seems quite "buzzing". Some of the entertainment venues have been doing cheap tickets to fill seats. They still had a disappointing response if my visit was anything to go by. Around the city, am seeing a fair few for sale signs on property. I think a bit more than before. The mall tenants might be doing more sales to encourage footfall, of course.

The English teaching ads here - you see posters at bus stops and ads on websites - hourly rate in one case is now 20. Just a few weeks ago I'd not seen lower than 30.
landora - | 199
28 Sep 2012  #39
Surprising thing happened to me this week. Advertised two bog standard jobs for which pay 2000 to 3000 zloty and got over 500 applications. This time last year it would be 40 or 50. I think youth and graduate unemployment is actually showing really damaging trends.

I imagine 95% of them would be straight to the bin, too?

I've noticed one distinct trend - youth unemployment among graduates of private universities must be incredibly high. Like you, I advertised for a simple entry level job and got almost 200 replies. 90% of them went straight in the bin, though. I think it doesn't help that there's such incredible stigma against private universities, even if the course is actually good - I know for instance Allegro won't hire anyone who graduated from one, irrespective of experience/qualifications.
Grzegorz_ 51 | 6,163
29 Sep 2012  #40
If there is a slowdown- I don't see it.

Hmm but you know, Warsaw's middle and upper class have hardly anything to do with average joe in this country, If they are significally hit, half of the country will be already starving.

while the government needs money NOW.

Priceless :)) Governments always need money, our money, so they can buy votes, hand out contracts to their buddies and so on.

Because in Poland, that 12% aren't much of a burden.

The final proof that you are totally out of touch with reality in Poland.

At least in Western Poland, there's still plenty of jobs available if you just want to work.

Right, especially in and around Koszalin, Gorzów or Zielona Góra. Your stereotypical thinking about Poland is cartoonish.
delphiandomine 84 | 17,703
29 Sep 2012  #41
Hmm but you know, Warsaw's middle and upper class have hardly anything to do with average joe in this country, If they are significally hit, half of the country will be already starving.

No, nothing at all, apart from the fact that without much of them, the country wouldn't be ticking at all. Then again, who was it that didn't have a bank account and ridiculed others for shopping in certain shops? Ah, that would be Jaroslaw Kaczynski - a man who is the definition of out of touch.

The final proof that you are totally out of touch with reality in Poland.

I think we proved a long time ago that you're the one who hasn't got a clue about what's going on in Poland. 12% unemployment means nothing - how many of them are actually working on the rather large Polish black market?

Right, especially in and around Koszalin, Gorzów or Zielona Góra. Your stereotypical thinking about Poland is cartoonish.

There's plenty of work there for people if they want it. Someone from Gorzow can easily commute to Szczecin these days.

Your view of Poland as being some sort of oppressed state where only Jaroslaw Kaczynski can lead Poland to salvation (well, Communism) is cartoonish here.
p3undone 8 | 1,135
29 Sep 2012  #42
Delphiandomine,have you really felt a difference in the Polish economy in the last year or two?
MooIl
29 Sep 2012  #43
yes p3 i did I come to poland every other month and see the change people are changed..there attitude is moving back like it was in 2003 "niema pinenza" trend is coming back,finalyy admitting that Poland is getting poorer.
p3undone 8 | 1,135
29 Sep 2012  #44
Mooli,have you noticed a decrease in the amount of people frequenting shops,restaurants etc.Other than people's attitudes,what is the most tangible results you have noticed?
cms 9 | 1,287
29 Sep 2012  #45
Jobs were in torun and in Poznan, both relatively prosperous towns.

Negative indicators are obviously wages, unemployment and things like shopping centre visitation. Positive things are that there is still outside investment and still thevinfrastructure getting better.

There are plenty of other sectors showing either real or actual wage falls - construction, retail, finance and I would guess manufacturing in light industry
InWroclaw 89 | 1,915
29 Sep 2012  #46
Thanks CMS

FWIW in Wroc, I believe they are to massively expand the Bielany retail park here. The retail park is part of Wroclawskie but its catchment area is Wroclaw itself as its only on the boundary. New cinema, bigger Ikea etc.
delphiandomine 84 | 17,703
29 Sep 2012  #47
Jobs were in torun and in Poznan, both relatively prosperous towns.

Doesn't surprise me in the slightest - graduate unemployment from the numerous private universities is awful. People keep telling me that they're getting presented with papers and no skills - a consequence of the "education for all" policy.
InWroclaw 89 | 1,915
29 Sep 2012  #48
People keep telling me that they're getting presented with papers and no skills - a consequence of the "education for all" policy.

Sounds like the UK, where many can't even do basic maths or spell everyday words (according to many employers).

Might be work for them as teachers in some small Polish towns, apparently.
Avalon 4 | 1,068
29 Sep 2012  #49
Sounds like the UK, where many can't even do basic maths or spell everyday words (according to many employers).

It was the same in the UK 10 years ago when I left, nothing has improved.

Might be work for them as teachers in some small Polish towns, apparently.

They will never know unless they get off their backsides and try but I would have thought it would be much easier for them to claim benefits.
milky 13 | 1,657
29 Sep 2012  #50
. I think youth and graduate unemployment is actually showing really damaging trends.

I think employers are looking for the cheapest person,not the best. People are willing to work for pennies, as the dole is only 35 Euro a week. Even minimum wage is nearly 3 time higher. Poland needs to raise standards or it will implode. Double the dole and increase minimum wage by 20-50%. Off course this will not happen.
SeanBM 35 | 5,808
29 Sep 2012  #51
I think employers are looking for the cheapest person,not the best.

I think employers like that go out of business pretty quick.
Pay peanuts, expect monkeys.
As an employer, you waste more money employing inexperienced, incompetent cheap labour than if you paid well and demand quality, it makes work more productive, better environment for all and the clients appreciate it.

Double the dole

that's all well and good Milky but where exactly do you think the Polish Government is going to get the money?

increase minimum wage by 20-50%

I get the feeling you haven't thought this through, if you increase wages, commodities go up, exports go down and if it is their tax that is paying for the doubling of the dole, products will be so expensive that you'd have a wheelbarrow of money to buy a loaf of bread.
Avalon 4 | 1,068
29 Sep 2012  #52
that's all well and good Milky but where exactly do you think the Polish Government is going to get the money?

Easy one SeanBM, they simply borrow the money from the ECB and the IMF. Every one can live well in a socialist paradise until it has to be paid back, simple.

I mean, Ireland, Greece, Spain, Italy, Portugal, all have a higher standard of living and higher salaries, it works in those countries so why can't the Polish government do the same here.
milky 13 | 1,657
29 Sep 2012  #53
so why can't the Polish government do the same here.

I often ask myself that question. But socialist paradise.?. a nation full of indebted workers is a neo-liberal paradise.

I get the feeling you haven't thought this through,

well ,, i said it wouldn't happen. I would be very pessimistic about the economic world situation, not just Poland.

“We're in a giant car heading towards a brick wall and everyones arguing over where they're going to sit”
Avalon 4 | 1,068
29 Sep 2012  #54
“We're in a giant car heading towards a brick wall and everyones arguing over where they're going to sit”

According to you, we are all in a Polonez, so it not going to matter.
OP pawian 155 | 8,612
29 Sep 2012  #55
People keep telling me that they're getting presented with papers and no skills - a consequence of the "education for all" policy.

Long gone are the times when people finished high schools with matura exams and were immediately employed as clerks in administration or even teachers of English. Today I run uni classes for adults who graduated in 1980s and now need papers of higher education. They work in courts, offices, banks etc.
MooIl
29 Sep 2012  #56
Mooli,have you noticed a decrease in the amount of people frequenting shops,restaurants etc.Other than people's attitudes,what is the most tangible results you have noticed?

yes p3 I even started a thread but was put down by harry and other brits that it was off season even now I go to clubs by me and one can easily find a seat unlike 3 yrs back when it was a long wait.
p3undone 8 | 1,135
29 Sep 2012  #57
Mooli,what industry do you think was hit the hardest in Poland?
Grzegorz_ 51 | 6,163
29 Sep 2012  #58
12% unemployment means nothing

There's plenty of work there for people if they want it.

Someone from Gorzow can easily commute to Szczecin these days.

No words :)))))

I think employers are looking for the cheapest person,not the best.

First of all, there is very little demand on skilled labour in Poland (in comparision to size and education of work force) due to pathological structure of Polish economy, which is largely based on assemly lines of foreign companies, call centers, foreign owned retail chains etc. Huge mistakes were made at early stages of transformation from communism and now it's very difficult to get over them, the problem is that current gov is not even trying to do that.

Double the dole and increase minimum wage by 20-50%. Off course this will not happen.

Thank God not, even Tusk is not so stupid to do that. That would totally finish off this country.
OP pawian 155 | 8,612
29 Sep 2012  #59
Huge mistakes were made at early stages of transformation from communism and now it's very difficult to get over them,

You say mistakes?

Probably you are too young to remember those times but I know that Polish economy was totally devastated by the dying communism of 1980s. Everything what Solidarity experts, economists and politicians tried to do after 1989 can be called one giant improvisation. Mistakes were unavoidable because it was the first time that a communist economy was to be transformed into capitalist one. Besides, we had to take what was offered to us without nitpicking. Assembly line? Fine, as long as decrepit communist production lines were modernised and people had work. Isn`t it simple?

But we still fared better on those assembly lines than Ukraine or others without them, come on.
Grzegorz_ 51 | 6,163
30 Sep 2012  #60
You say mistakes?

Yes, I do.

Probably you are too young to remember those times but I know that Polish economy was totally devastated by the dying communism of 1980s.

I was a kid back then but not a 2 years old one, I saw what was going on then, private small businesses popping up on every corner... ok, I didn't make myself clear enough, what was going on in 89-91 was really fine (especially under under those complicated circumstances) terrible was what happened later, increasing bureaucracy blocking development of domestic companies and at the same time blind love for "foreign investors" and "the west" without thinking if it is good for us or not.

Assembly line? Fine, as long as decrepit communist production lines were modernised and people had work. Isn`t it simple?

No, it isn't simple. Take a look how those few good Polish companies (Asseco, Solaris, Pessa, Adamed or Kopex) are organized, where the profits go and so on. Now take a look at assembly lines. +90% are unskilled or semi-skilled jobs, profits go abroad, when state owned companies were sold to "foreign investors" in most cases the brand disappeared, R&D depertments were shut down, marketing/export etc. departments were reduced to a few clerks, it's all organized the way that hardly any taxes are paid, people are expolited to the limits, investments in human capital are as small as it is possible.


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