News /
Israel opposing potential new Polish law to criminalise term 'Polish death camps' [1538]
any support that they would lose over it has already left them over Macierewicz / Szyszko getting the sack.
I agree, many of the PiS base are already disgruntled over Macierewicz and Szydlo, and are becoming more and more upset with Duda over his original judicial reform veto and what they see as his grovelling stance to Israel, such as his most recent lack of reaction to president Rivlin's comments about Poland and Polish people also being responsible for the Holocaust or how Poland was fertile land for the Nazis to go ahead with the Holocaust. Heck, he's even being nicknamed Andrzej Juda.
If there's a 10% vote for fascist parties, then only a fraction of that will vote for PiS
The point is, 10% of the electorate are not fascists. It was insulting for Gebert to say such a thing. There are actually very few fascists around in Poland. It's as marginal as a handful of people celebrating Hitler's birthday in the woods.
Nationalists however, there are a few more of, although I still wouldn't say anywhere near as much as 10%, and different nationalists define themselves differently [many for example, have no issue with people of different ethnicities in Poland as long as they accept a Polish cultural and traditional way of life]. It is true though, that some of the actions [or lack of them] by PiS and Duda may turn them away. Some of them probably didn't vote for PiS and Duda in the 1st place though, so PiS won't lose out if they don't vote again, but some did vote for them as their only hope of at least getting rid of PO, but now they're beginning to feel tricked and might not vote for them again. Even if it's a few percent, this could, as you say, make a difference.
PiS have definitely put themselves in a difficult situation with this IPN law. Right now they seem to be pissing off both the USA and the Jews, as well as the hard right in Poland and heck, not even just the hard right, but even soft right traditional PiS supporters, who are also beginning to see them as weak.
It's the worst possible scenario, although strangely, if they can be trusted, most polls still have them as leading comfortably.