News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

I'm wondering exactly that. Is it possible that he's losing control of them? PiS as a party are normally so disciplined, but they've walked straight into the trap that the opposition set for them. TVP propaganda is only reaching what, 2-3m - but I'd say that virtually every Polish person has experiences with family/friends and cancer.

Grzegorz Braun also laid into them for the 2 billion to TVP, so you really have to wonder if Konfederacja are going to support Duda or not.

Perhaps the other key point is that Gowin yet again appears to have blackmailed PiS into giving him what he wanted - more airtime for his mob.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


It's only getting worse. This time, we've got a MP from PiS giving the opposition the middle finger after PiS voted to give 2 billion złoty to TVP instead of giving it for cancer treatment.

polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2020-02-13/srodkowy-palec-poslanki-pis-dziambor-twierdzi-ze-poprawiala-sobie-oko/


Hard to say, to be honest. PO supporters were desperate for the party to actually fight back after years of abuse, and the enthusiasm that they now have for meeting Duda at every step of the way is encouraging. PiS have been fighting dirty for years, and it's obvious that they're rattled by this.


It's a disaster for him, especially as Agata Duda also made a horrendous mistake earlier in terms of PR.

I'm shocked by how many bad moves PiS have made in the last week. For a party normally so disciplined, they seem to be completely all over the place.

News / Why is Poland so hostile against Germany? Do they realize how their reparations rubbish damages relations? [510]

Nazism and Communism didn't try to replace them at all. They might not have gone to churches, but they were very much built on religious dogma.

They should serve as a warning as to what happens when you try and impose a single ideology on society. Part of what made the Croatian Ustashe so wicked was that combination of fascism and Catholicism, after all.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


PO are outplaying PiS so far. They clearly predicted this reaction, and PiS walked straight into the trap that was set.

News / Modern F-35 bought by Poland. Good decision? [288]


That's an interesting fantasy. America is in decline, as witnessed by the fact that they betrayed their Kurdish allies in such a disgusting way.

News / Dodgy PRL-holdover judiciary finally reformed [420]


Sounds like a Polandball fantasy. Or did you already forget about all the Poles who collaborated with the Communists?


It's more likely that the Konfederacja goons will be imprisoned for cooperating with Russians.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


They didn't even bother to conceal their contempt for him, did they? The comments I've seen were all thinly veiled 'oh look, how convenient', with allusions to various... rumours about him.

News / Why is Poland so hostile against Germany? Do they realize how their reparations rubbish damages relations? [510]


I read this paper a while ago, and it was pretty interesting - kellogg.northwestern.edu/faculty/spenkuch/research/religion_nazis.pdf - for me, the key point was that local priests held a tremendous amount of influence at the ballot box, and those who supported the Nazis influenced Catholics into voting for them. The Catholic hierarchy was against the Nazis until they took power, but it seems that the same problem existed then as exists now in Poland - priests have their own agenda, instructions from the bishops be damned.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


Which would be more bad PR for him. Even a loss of 0.5% as a result of such an action could be the difference between winning and losing for him.

News / Modern F-35 bought by Poland. Good decision? [288]


I like your optimism, but I don't share it. It's hard to imagine people in Western Poland supporting an intervention if ethnic Poles were left alone, particularly if there was a very real risk of the war moving onto Polish soil after Poland intervenes.

News / Modern F-35 bought by Poland. Good decision? [288]


Are they actually strengthening things? I'm highly skeptical about the WOT forces, unless you consider that their main job would be to act as cannon fodder while NATO got themselves together. Add the widescale purging of experienced officers (Stalin, anyone?), and you have to wonder how capable Poland actually is right now.


I have to say - I have my doubts about whether Poland would intervene if Lithuania was invaded. Realpolitik would say that the Baltics aren't particularly important from a strategic point of view, and they aren't particularly important economically as well.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

It's already happening - wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,25685338,duda-wygwizdany-w-pucku-sobolewski-kidawa-blonska-powinna.html

I'd say that this is a critical moment for Kidawa-Błońska - if they can keep up the pressure in public on Duda, then they might just cause him to do a Komorowski and only turn up in PiS heartlands. It's obvious that PiS have been rattled by this, because the media was full of "Duda got heckled" and not "Duda said xxx" - which is what they desperately want to avoid.

What's interesting is that PiS are behaving like crybabies over this, accusing Kidawa-Błońska of behaving like Jachira and crying about how unfair it is.

News / Modern F-35 bought by Poland. Good decision? [288]


From a military point of view, why would they run through there when Lithuania would offer far less resistance, especially as the Poles in the Vilnius Region can't be relied on to support the Lithuanian state? I'm not saying that they would support the Russian invasion, but I suspect they simply wouldn't get involved.

News / Modern F-35 bought by Poland. Good decision? [288]


Meanwhile life expectancy is actually falling in Poland. Every PLN spent on military matters is one less spent on schools and health.

It's amazing how alleged free marketeers are so keen on supporting the procurement of highly expensive military hardware without any sort of tendering process to achieve the best possible price.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


I think this might be the key to the whole campaign. If they keep pressurising him in the sane way as the Italians did to Salvini, then it will become harder and harder for him as the campaign goes on. Salvini didn't break, but there's no denying that it hurt him and Lega with such organised resistance.

They could try to do it to Kidawa-Błońska on return, but that could backfire badly, especially as it would be seen as the government abusing candidates. It's why I think this election is going to be much harder for PiS, especially as Duda is prone to doing stupid things.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

It's why the courts issue is so strange - Duda is mired in it, and idiots like Nawicki tearing up documents will make it even harder for Duda to repeat the "President of the Poles" trick.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


I don't think he stands a chance. The centrist-left voters would be disgusted by him, and Duda would win by virtue of centre/left voters not bothering to vote.


I think he would have had a chance if Schetyna was still leading PO, but that moment has gone. Never say never in Presidential elections, but Kidawa-Błońska is doing the right thing so far, and PO have the ability to spend the entire 1.9m allowed on this campaign.


It's on a knife edge, I think. Duda's strange behaviour is being noticed, and now the opposition have figured that the Italian Sardines tactic also works.

What Kidawa-Błońska needs to do now is to hanmer home some simple points where PiS are failing badly - housing, education, health and international relations. Focus on those, and Duda will struggle, esoecially if she holds press conferences outside schools and hospitals closed in the last 4 years.

I've seen something where apparently Duda's people have mentioned 9m votes as bring the magic number. Will 75% of Konfederacja voters really support Duda?

News / Why is Poland so hostile against Germany? Do they realize how their reparations rubbish damages relations? [510]


America doesn't have allies, it has interests. If you follow that rule, America is perfectly fine, but no nation should ever rely wholly on the Americans.


I wouldn't say leave, but I think there's a definite appetite among Germans for a NATO that's less dominated by the US and more about European partnerships. Makes sense, especially as the US is putting themselves first now.

News / Dodgy PRL-holdover judiciary finally reformed [420]


Or what was it with failing to publish the legally binding judgement of the TK in the first place?

Gumishu, what would you say if PO did the same as PiS are doing? Would you be appalled and outraged by them filling the Constitutional Tribunal with their cronies, including the Communist prosecutor Piotrowicz?

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


He's not afraid of debate, and he seems to understand that you have to maximise every minute on TV. The latest ploy of challenging Ziobro in debate was fantastic - it forces the author of the legal deforms to answer for them. Ziobro won't agree, and WKK comes across as the winner by default. Savvy.

But one thing about Kidawa-Błońska - PO are starting to wake up under Budka, and she has the advantage of being able to spend 3 months campaigning.

PiS are making mistakes, such as Kempa's latest idiotic comments, and Duda isn't going into this election from a position of strength.

News / Why is Poland so hostile against Germany? Do they realize how their reparations rubbish damages relations? [510]


It's nothing but that. PiS supporters need enemies, and Germany is a convenient one.

Remember the Two Minutes Hate from 1984, or the anti-American propaganda in the PRL?

News / Dodgy PRL-holdover judiciary finally reformed [420]


Law is not only what gets published in the Journal of Laws.

Gumishu, let's put it another way. You mentioned before that you live in/next to the forest. The local PiS man comes and decides that your house would make an ideal cabin for his daughter, so he brings a lawsuit using faked documents to prove that your house actually belongs to him.

The judge appointed to the case was appointed by PiS, and you lose the case quickly. Same happens with the appeal, and the Supreme Court (led by a PiS appointee) refuses you the chance to appeal there.

The court orders you to leave, enforced by the police. You complain to the PiS public prosecutor, who decides you have no case as it was all legal.

That's exactly what was happening in the PRL, and it's why independent judges are so important. The system isn't perfect, but having judges dependent on politicians is the worst possible outcome.

And please, don't tell "it won't happen to me" - that's the same thing that many other people believed before bad things happened. When it happens, you'll be the biggest supporter of the opposition, but it won't bring your house back.

Why do you think having one political party in control of the legal system is a good thing?

News / Dodgy PRL-holdover judiciary finally reformed [420]


You really are a communist, aren't you?

Certainly the idea of locking up people over contradicting the will of the Party is from the worst days of Stalinism.

News / Modern F-35 bought by Poland. Good decision? [288]


I would argue that if you're Russia today, there's not much to gain from occupying Poland as a whole. It would be better to invade Lithuania around Marjiampole, create a land corridor and heavily reinforce it against Poland.

Poland would have a difficult question then - do they attack Russian forces to try and keep the land corridor open, or do they look for a settlement? I don't believe NATO intervenes if the Russian intention is to create a corridor along the sparsely populated border of PL-LT, as it would be incredibly difficult to sell a war with Russia over that.

From a Polish point of view, it would also be a very hard sell domestically, especially if the corridor doesn't infringe on Polish territory and if local Poles aren't bothered by the occupying forces.

However, I'd also argue that Russia is playing the long game, and their interests are just as well served by useful idiots like PiS and Konfederacja.

Genealogy / Ancestors from Galicia - does this mean you are Polish? [19]


Galicia was an integral part of Austria-Hungary. The official language remained German until 1918, after all.

TheOther, remember that this is our old friend known by some as "Roggers", a guy with a pathological obsession with the modern Polish state not awarding him citizenship.

Law / The right to own guns: would you support such legislation in Poland? [2237]


Anyone mentally stable would stay well away from WOT.

News / Poland economy is a financially drained economy of suppliers? [33]


They essentially are. They have an aging fleet, and LOT were the only aviation company interested. For LOT to underwrite Condor's loans, pensions and employees is financial insanity, which is why there were no serious offers from IAG, Air France - KLM, etc. In short, Condor would have been finished if LOT didn't buy them, which means that its hardly a great purchase.

News / Poland economy is a financially drained economy of suppliers? [33]


Yup, it's essentially the best possible outcome for Condor. The other proposals were from asset strippers, so instead of Condor simply being slowly liquidated, the Polish taxpayer will now shoulder the burden of their liabilities.

It says a lot that no other airline saw any potential in this purchase.

News / Poland economy is a financially drained economy of suppliers? [33]


It's amazing how financially illiterate most nationalists are. This purchase comes with significant and serious liabilities, not only with the repayments to Germany, but also the need to take on Condor's pensions and other liabilities.

Condor's fleet is aging and needs replacing, which means LOT will have to shoulder the costs of new planes - effectively, Polish taxpayers will be taking on the risk of operating a German airline that wasn't exactly a desirable purchase. The operation has been relying on a 380m EUR bridging loan, and the only other players in the game were asset strippers. That alone is a good reason to stay away, and the only end result is LOT having to subsidise Condor.

The method that LOT are using in Poland won't work in Germany (widespread abusive use of self employment contracts), and Lufthansa are already responsible for the short haul feed into Condor's long haul network. If Lufthansa stop cooperating, where will they get the short haul feed from?

Look at Condor's fleet: planespotters.net/airline/Condor - it's an aging fleet which is highly vulnerable to fuel costs. If Norwegian are struggling with a modern 787 fleet, what hope does Condor have with the 757/767?

At the end of the day, LOT were the only airline in the running for a reason: the purchase makes zero sense if the goal is to make money.

It is, however, funny to see Spike advocate for socialist solutions for private businesses. Whatever happened to "free market", I wonder?

News / Coal-Powered Poland Refuses to "Go Green". EU Ain't Happy. [304]

There's a lot of EU money available to help, for a start. Any serious programme that exists to make a difference (and not to act as a way for the government to employ cronies for 25,000zł a month) will get a lot of funding.

Ask yourself why the life expectancy figure is now falling in Poland...