News / Polexit? Almost half of the Poles believe that Poland would be better off outside of the EU [548]


Just basic math. Few births, young people move away and old people die out. Demography is predictable, the only onforseeable aspect are huge migration movements.


Germany is far from the only one with demographic problems, Poland's predicament is just as severe, if not more so. The simple truth is that having children is both a financial and time-consuming burden and many people simply want to spend their time differently. Not that children are not lovely, but it is understandable why not everybody wants them.

News / Polexit? Almost half of the Poles believe that Poland would be better off outside of the EU [548]


The jobs available in small villages are in fact often different from big cities. Many villages have lost their local bakerys, supermarkets close because they do not find anyone to help out. You dont really need a higher education for that, and what you don't know, you can be taught. There are already several good examples for this.

nytimes.com/2019/09/19/world/europe/germany-golzow-syria-refugees.html


It makes sense once you consider that migrants assimilate quicker when they are forced to engage with locals, instead of gathering in big cities and forming gated communities. Adding to the fact that refugees will find it easier - as I mentioned - to find a job there, and we have a healthy chance for success there At this point, it is up to thw villages to either adapt or die. And every forecast predict that those communities who won't be open to migrants will be dead in 30 years.

News / Polexit? Almost half of the Poles believe that Poland would be better off outside of the EU [548]


Maybe to people who have been forced to people who left their home due to violence and poverty. But this is not the group I was refering to. If you are a highly skilled engineer, or a famous scientist, you might consider it very different if only because you can choose freely where to go. Sadly, it also looks like East Germany has also squandered the chance to benefit from the refugees. There are many stories of dying villages in the West, who applied for refugees to be distributed to them, and evidence suggest that their integration goes overall pretty good (because there are more jobs available to them and they get to interact more with the local population). In the end, it is simple math. Shrinking villages will see a decrease in tax revenue, thus public spending decreases and calculations are made according to which fewer people need fewer infrastructure, which causes more people to leave. A vicious cycle. Be it as it may, I only brought that up to explain why the former GDR is still lagging behind economically.


The usual cited figure is 2tn € until now.


As BB already said, the people forced the hand. They threatened to leave for the West, and who was going to stop them? The wall was already gone.

Additionally, it is also important to remember that we have a lot more information than the people back then. There was little expertise on how the economic harmonization between East and West could be achieved, and those that now exist were yet to be written. Furthermore everybody in and outside of Germany was mislead by the SED propaganda over the true state of their economy (or as the SED liked to boost, the "9th largest" of the world). Kohl and Co. initially believed that only a stimulus and some investments were needed to bring the East German economy up to date, not knowing that many companies operated under working conditions that were untenable by Western standards. This is significant, because if e.g. the Kohl government had allowed exceptions for those companies who e.g. did not meet Western safety standards -moral issues aside - it still would have left Western managers open to lawsuits and personal legal consequences if something happened to the workers because of it, because basic safety is not something the government can tell the courts to ignore. This also goes a long way to explain why rebuilding East Germany became so expensive. The government had to often sell companies for next to no money to private investors, because the money needed to make the company both competetive and safe often exceeded the worth of the company itself.

News / Polexit? Almost half of the Poles believe that Poland would be better off outside of the EU [548]


Well, stagnation is relative. There are some highly succesful areas e.g. around Leipzig, Dresden and Berlin. The biggest problem present and future for East Germany is its' catastrophic demographic situation that slows its' economic growth. It already had a very low birthrate, then it lost a lot of people to the West, and now it has great difficulties attracting foreigners that could help fill the void. That includes highly skilled ones, which sad, because particulary Dresden was getting quite a scientific reputation. But as the director of the Max-Planck-Institute once said: "If you are free to choose many different cities, you are not going to the one city in which 10.000 are going on a weekly march against foreigners."

But yes, Poland did rather well overall. Let us hope it continues like thia.

News / Polexit? Almost half of the Poles believe that Poland would be better off outside of the EU [548]


I disagree. Maybe in hindsight it would have avoided some of the problems we are now aware off, but the people back then had other concerns and acted accordingly. The biggest problem in maintaining the GDR in some form was that it completely lacked legitimacy. People had overwhelmingly voted in a free election for parties that promised quick reunification, which would only have been possible by the dissolution of the GDR, since otherwise a very complicated a long constitutional process would have been required. Furthermore, there was little love in the continued existence within the structures of the GDR among its' citizen, as e.g. the change of the borders between e.g. Brandenburg and Saxony prove.


As we discover with the Euro, you can't have those two without a political union. Keep in mind that the political union made it much easier for the Kohl government to grant those unprecedented structural funds.


That happened in large because those Western managers had a) better experience in dealing with market economies and b) more importantly often had the money for crucial investments. Of course those who pay the money want control on how it is spent. Personally I think the quick reunification also allowed us to purge SED and Stasi-loyalist from important positions which had overall a positive development on East German society. Though of course like the Allies after 1945, there were many cases in which people received hardly an consequences, it was still the right thing to do.

News / Polexit? Almost half of the Poles believe that Poland would be better off outside of the EU [548]


The GDR still had some companies that produced highly sought after products, like Foron home appliances. Mind you those were heavily subsidiarized, but still.

Of course, the GDR economy was imho doomed even then, because the cuts and reforms that might have prevented the GDR from collapse would never have been accepted by the population.

News / Polexit? Almost half of the Poles believe that Poland would be better off outside of the EU [548]


From how they used to be in the 80s. This probably would have meant longer working hours (with the same wage), more focus on export to the West and thus less products for the citizens, less holidays, lower pensions and so on.

News / Polexit? Almost half of the Poles believe that Poland would be better off outside of the EU [548]


Enforced austerity would have happened if he had followed the advice of his comission and cut living standards by 30%. Because that was calculated to be necessary for the GDR to financially survive the 1990s. The GDR lived under Honecker from its' bone marrow, and what you rightfully experienced as dreary was actually more lavish than what the GDR could afford.

News / Polexit? Almost half of the Poles believe that Poland would be better off outside of the EU [548]


Difficult to say. Erhard thought that debts were potentially dangerous, but he never had to deal with a debt crisis, and during his time as economy minister and later chancellor, governing spending and the welfare state increased significantly.


What makes you think that? Honecker made never any attempt to reform the GDR's budget even when it was only saved from bankrupcy by loans from West Germany (via Strauß). Nor did he ever implement any structural reforms. The man's entire economic policies can be summed up as "If I ignore a problem, it will go away."

@CJH


Because they are not treated as refugees by the Polish government. Only a few hundred (if that) are recognized as refugees, the others are treated as economic migrants without any privileges that come with being a refugee. Poland can consider itself lucky to have them in order to adress its' labour shortage, but they are not anything to brag about when we talk about the acceptance of refugees by different government.

News / Polexit? Almost half of the Poles believe that Poland would be better off outside of the EU [548]


This is hardly contradictary. Countries like Greece received an unprecedented amount of solidarity, so that they could remain in the EU and Euro. Austerity was the price they had to pay for it, because naturally other countries would have been hesitant otherwise to help them. Not only because Greece obviously needed reforms, but also because poorer countries like the Baltic states would have seen it as unfair.

News / Polexit? Almost half of the Poles believe that Poland would be better off outside of the EU [548]


Look at the international scene. You cant habe agreements without forceful rules, otherwise the stronger would just abuse their position. And why wouldn't they, not like there would be anything to stop them or give them pause.

News / Polexit? Almost half of the Poles believe that Poland would be better off outside of the EU [548]

Well, unlike the Uk Poland is not a net payer, and Warsaw has not been particulary helpful partner since 2015, so I suspect the fallout of a Polexit would be much smaller than Brexit. As long as there is a strong core consisting of the Benelux countries, France, Germany, Austria and the Nordic ones the EU will survive, since those countries would still benefit from its' existence. A core EU might actually be the way forward, truth to be told.

News / Polexit? Almost half of the Poles believe that Poland would be better off outside of the EU [548]

The impact of Brexit will be felt over time, not instantly. The UK is getting less attractive as an investment target, and international companies will start redirecting their investments to other EU countries, reducing their presence in the UK.

Tesla builds its' giant battery near Berlin, not in the UK. And this is just the tip of the ice berg.

google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/bdc9f940-bb92-11e9-b350-db00d509634e

Less investments =fewer jobs tax income in the future. No doubt Brexiteers will celebrate it in 5 years that their country is still alive, ignoring how much better they could have been off if they had stayed in the EU. But then again, they have no idea of economics or how the world actually is, otherwise they would not have voted for it.

Off-Topic / DALMATIA - How much Poles love Dalmatia ? [123]

Which is why more than 55% of them voted for independence?

Off-Topic / DALMATIA - How much Poles love Dalmatia ? [123]

Looks like he does not even recognize Montenegro's independence.


Still better than the rogue state Serbia used to be in the 90a before it got properly scolded by Nato.

News / Polexit? Almost half of the Poles believe that Poland would be better off outside of the EU [548]

They are hardly creating anything. They are just mindlessy repeating nonsensical slogans they red on conspiracy sites.

Though I must say I find it in poor taste doing this on a forum dedicated to a country that has suffered so much under both Nazi Germany and the SU.

News / Polexit? Almost half of the Poles believe that Poland would be better off outside of the EU [548]


Did you just mix Star Wars, Nazi Germany and the UdSSR together?

News / Polexit? Almost half of the Poles believe that Poland would be better off outside of the EU [548]


People can villify anybody and anything. Which is why even people like Gandhi got murdered.

The EU is the greatest political project of peace and prosperity ever undertaken. But that doesn't stop people from hating it. Hatred is never rational nor sane.

News / Polexit? Almost half of the Poles believe that Poland would be better off outside of the EU [548]

Last year, Mohammed was not even among the top 50.

beliebte-vornamen.de/jahrgang/j2018


Just compare how the Ukraine and Poland have developed since the end of the Sovietunion.


A single market like the European one does not work without political integration.


Maybe not CO2, but I think it would be good for the Polish people if the EU forced Warsaw to do something against air pollution in cities. The smog you regulary see on television (and one Polish friend told me about) can not be healthy.

Law / Prostitution in Poland, is it legal? [24]

I suppose the key question for most here is: Can I get into legal trouble if I have sex with a prostitute in Poland?

News / Polexit? Almost half of the Poles believe that Poland would be better off outside of the EU [548]


This is just a claim that has been refuted numerous times already. Germany has in fact a lot of soft power by any indication.

softpower30.com/country/germany/

Cultural soft power is more than just who has the most netflix series. Otherwise no country except the USA and maybe the UK would have any. It includes the numer of people who learn a language, listen ro music and read literature. And in that regard Germqny has a lot to offer.

News / Polexit? Almost half of the Poles believe that Poland would be better off outside of the EU [548]


This nonsense again?

softpower30.com/country/germany/


You are confusing Germany with Poland here. Thanks to PiS, Poland plays little to no part in the creation of European policy making. Whereas Germany is still involved in all initiatives.

News / Polexit? Almost half of the Poles believe that Poland would be better off outside of the EU [548]


I am not surprised, since you also see Gulags in the EU and probably a lot of other crazy stuff. Poland faces no military threat from the West, but it does from the East, and thus asks for Western support. If it were to leave the Western alliance system, it would naturally lose this help without any compensation for it.


Naturally both sides would suffer, since both sides benefit from the current status. But if we just talk about bilateral negotiations, there would be so many ways for the economically larger country to hurt the other without the latter being able to retaliate. Poland has a huge logistic industry, with trucks driving through Western Europe, with Germany as the central hub. It would be simply for Germany to introduce poll taxes for them. After all, if Polish drivers use German autobahns, they can pay for their upkeep (which Polish drivers are currently protected against by EU law). Germany could introduce measure to have Polish workers pay more taxes in Germany, and prevent them from claiming social benefits. (again against EU law). We could implement rules like Macron suggested to prevent polish plumbers from undercutting the minimum wage in Germany. What could Poland do against this? It depends after all on its' many expats, and like with the UK, Warsaw would adopt a conciliatory tone. Poland is also important as a work bench for Germany, but how long would it take for other countries trying to lure German companies away to them by offering better conditions? And that leaves out the possibility of closer economic relations with Russia, once Berlin does no longer need to show any consideration for Warsaw. Again, both sides would likely suffer, but unlile Germany, Poland would not have anything to lessen the pain.

And again, what is the strategic benefit of this for Poland? It does not gain anything by it.


I would consider them as Poland's big friends. Friends because they are willing to treat them as equals, but sadly this only works if the Polish sides is willing to act in good faith.

News / Polexit? Almost half of the Poles believe that Poland would be better off outside of the EU [548]


Maybe not enemies to the West, but probably no friends. It is really puzzling to me how some Poles are so dead set on repeating past mistakes. It would be one thing of they said "We want to closely align with Russia instead", but it as evident that many of them deem Russia as a threat. Which means they are intent on weakening Poland's position without any tangible benefit. Do they really want to see their country into another Ukraine, constantly in danger of interference from Russia? Because NATO will likely not be around to protect them for much longer.

In short, they dream off a kind of independence that is not possible anymore. Smaller countries need to rely/ally with bigger ones if they feel threatened. And even military threats aside, bigger countries can dictate trade conditions to smaller ones, if the latter have no one to back them up.

Off-Topic / DALMATIA - How much Poles love Dalmatia ? [123]


Fixed that for you.

History / Occupation of Eastern Poland in 1939 [98]


Indeed, the Western allies handed over most of the power to the newly founded FRG, and surrendered the rest de facto in the 1950s. Afterwards the Allies treated the FRG as an allied country and did not try to influence its' domestic or foreign policy anymore than they would do to another country. Meanwhile the Warsaw pact countries remained puppets of the SU until the very end.

History / Do Polish people in general dislike Russia or Germany more? [369]

Putin has in fact tried to downplay the atrocity by claiming that they were retaliation for previous imaginary massacres against Russians... .

History / Do Polish people in general dislike Russia or Germany more? [369]

Reading the Wikipedia page about the killing of Russian journalist (that they even need a page just shows how significant the situation is) really paints a bleak picture. Especially parts like this.

When the death was not related to the journalist's work the conviction rate exceeds 90%. When the journalist's death was certainly [related to his work] the rate of acquittals rise sharply to around half of the total.

And that even ignores that in cases which have conviction, those who likely ordered the murder are not properly investigated.

News / How could PiS better spend billions instead of 500+ ? [280]

Invest it into education, and more specifically, invest it into education for gifted children from poor families. Few investments pay off as much as in education, and as in every society, there are likely many children who can not live up to their full potential because their background makes this impossible.

Moreover simply handing out money is not a good idea, because there is no guarantee that the money will be used for their children. Instead grant them free food in schools, scholarships, bus tickets et al.

Off-Topic / DALMATIA - How much Poles love Dalmatia ? [123]

And yet Netanyahu claimed that the mufti inspired Hitler to kill them all.