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Posts by nierozumiem  

Joined: 18 Jan 2008 / Male ♂
Last Post: 16 Jul 2010
Threads: Total: 9 / In This Archive: 0
Posts: Total: 118 / In This Archive: 0
From: Małopolska
Speaks Polish?: trochę
Interests: Property

Displayed posts: 98 / page 3 of 4
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nierozumiem   
2 Nov 2008
Life / Deadly Roads - "Are polish roads really THAT dangerous?" [139]

Days of Death on Poland's roads

On Friday and Saturday, 32 people died on Polish roads during the weekend when Poles visit cemeteries all over the country to celebrate All Souls and Saints Days.

Police reported 334 serious road accidents with 32 dead and 421 injured in 48 hours, on what is the annual carnage on Poland's accompanying one of the most widely observed Roman Catholic holidays, All Souls Day, otherwise known as the day of the Dead.

In a special action - codenamed Operation Light - carried out by Poland's law enforcement officers, just under 1000 drivers were caught in charge of a vehicle while drunk.

The death toll is expected to rise significantly as Poles return home from visiting graves of loved ones, Sunday.

nierozumiem   
28 Oct 2008
Real Estate / Current state of the property market in Krakow [135]

Ash1972 – Using the numbers you provided and something called compounding you arrive at a 90% increase since the beginning of 2004. This qualifies as DOUBLING in my book.

Baseline Beginning of 2004 = 100%
92.5 close of 2004 (-7.5%)
118.4 close of 2005 (+28%)
157.5 close of 2006 (+33%)
181.2 close of 2007 (+15%)
190.1 close of 2008 (+5%)
nierozumiem   
23 Oct 2008
Real Estate / Estimate farmland value (9 miles from Krakow)? [4]

There are so many variables involved with agricultural land that you really need to have someone take a look at the plot. For example, soil quality, grade, dimensions, road access, drainage, etc...

If the land is zoned purely for agriculture and has no opportunity of ever changing zoning status to something that could be built on, then it could be fairly low value, perhaps even down to a few zloty / m2.

What changes the game completely is the opportunity, or potential opportunity, to change the zoning status to "budowlana", allowing you to develop the property. There is a great deal of speculation involved in that area, and your question becomes how long is a piece of string?. You could then be looking at 100's of zl/m2.

You need to be aware that there are a lot of investors looking to take advantage of the Babkas in the village by purchasing cheap agro plots and having them converted to developable land. There are "expeditors" who know the "system" and specialize in having land converted for a fee.

Take a look at these guys, maybe they can help: plotspy.pl/the-investment.htm
nierozumiem   
17 Oct 2008
Life / Are Russian fireplaces or kachelofens in use in Poland? [4]

The piec kaflowy masonary heater is still in wide use throughout Poland (much like the German kachelofan), not just in rural areas, but in towns and cities. Most are still functional and the only means of heating houses and apartments. Many people keep them for their decorative value after installling central heating.

In cities people retro-fit them with electric elements, and use cheap night tariff electricity to heat them. I have one in my house in a small city and in my apartment in Krakow. They are fitted for electricty, but I don't use them.

You can buy antique piec kaflowys on Allegro, some go for over 100,000PLN.

My dream is to install a large 2 story Finnish style masonary heater in my house to replace my central heating. Just have to find someone alive who knows how to build one.
nierozumiem   
17 Oct 2008
Real Estate / House ownership as a EU citizen [4]

Sobieski, I'm quite certan that you cannot have meldunek in two places at once, that would defeat the purpose of it. You should be able to transfer the Meldunek from one gmina to another, but as GASK pointed out, you don't have an address on the new house.

Regarding your share of your wife's flat - there are no restrictions on EU citizens purchasing flat's in Poland this is why you did not need to provide any documentation.

As of May 1 2009 you will be free to purchase a 2nd home without restriction, the same as with a flat. If all other avenues fail, perhaps you can delay purchase for 6 months, or just place the property in your wife's name for the time being and she can gift you the 50% share in May.
nierozumiem   
15 Oct 2008
Real Estate / How much to build a house in poland [7]

About 2500 - 3000 zl/m2 for a typical "normal" Polish new build of 90 - 120m2 of habitable space. That's everything from the foundation to the paint on the walls and tiles in the bath. Larger houses will have better economies of scale and you may get down to about 2000zl/m2.
nierozumiem   
15 Oct 2008
Real Estate / What is a "jard" [10]

Be aware that many Poles mistranslate "Ar" as "Acre". For example, someone may tell you that they bought 10 acres of land to build a house on, when in fact they mean 10 Are, or .25 acres.
nierozumiem   
12 Oct 2008
Life / Deadly Roads - "Are polish roads really THAT dangerous?" [139]

Kazikowski:They said that somewhere around 40-50 ppl die weekly from road accidents.

More like 100 per week:

And here is a "list of countries by traffic-related death rate":

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_traffic-related_death_rate

Poland does not show its death rate per kilometer driven. I imagine this number is through the roof (there must be a more sensitive way to phrase that) as there are so few roads in Poland and car ownership is stil relatively low. I read something somewhere a few years ago that had Poland with the highest death number of deaths per km driven in the world, second only to Russia.
nierozumiem   
18 Sep 2008
Law / Coal Alternatives in Poland: The new electricity market [21]

Qacer: Does Poland have an abundance of gas resources?

See the following article from Interfax, "Poland may have much more gas than confirmed 100 bln cm owned by gasmonopolist PGNiG":

Regarding solar, my plumber was pushing me to install solar hot water (not electric) in my house in Małopolska and gave me a lot of brochures from a Polish company that would supply the panels and related hardware. At that time, 2 years ago, it just didn't make sense - a 10 yr payoff. If the price of gas continues to accelerate, I may need to rethink, or take shorter showers...
nierozumiem   
18 Jun 2008
Real Estate / Expected Rent in Białołęka [2]

Your competition is here: dom.gratka.pl/mieszkania-do-wynajecia/lista/,warszawa,bia%B3o%B 3%EAka,2,50,60,2,dz,lp,mo,md,s.html

Those are just the asking rents, so they just reflect the hopes of other owners. The latest Szybko report (Q1 2008) says that the average rent for a 2-room (1 bed) apartment in Białołęka was 1571zl. The average selling price for a 2 room was 7367zl/m2. So all thinge being equal, about 400,000zl for your apartment.

Of course all of these numbers are market averages and do not reflect your exact situation. The market is very sluggish right now and you may have difficulty offloading your apartment for the next 12 -18 months.

Of particular concern is the latest REAS / Gazeta report which advises that prices for new off-plan apartments on the primary market in Warsaw are actually 10 - 20% cheaper than those completed in 2006 - 2007 and now placed on the secondary market by speculators attempting to cash out.

dom.gazeta.pl/nieruchomosci/1,73497,5310123,Upusty_cenowe_na_ry nku_wtornym.html
nierozumiem   
12 Jun 2008
Work / Course on Polish Taxation [3]

I have not heard of any, but a few points:

1.) get a better accountant
2.) Download the E&Y reports, which will give you a good high-level view of the tax situation for personal income and rental income:

ey.com/global/content.nsf/Poland_E/Publications_-_Doing_Bus iness_in_Poland_2007

ey.com/global/content.nsf/Poland_E/Real_Estate_-_The_Polish __Real_Estate_Guide_2008

3.) See point no. 1
nierozumiem   
9 Jun 2008
Real Estate / United States Tax Laws for sale of property inherited in Poland [10]

Ben, You are a US citizen, correct? You are therefore taxed on your worldwide income by the IRS, and will need to pay long-term capital gains tax on the sale of the property (currently 15%). This will be offset by any tax you pay to Poland on the sale (perhaps none).

You may have difficulty assesing the capital gain on the property. Normally (in the case of US property), some sort of assessment would have been done for the tax return filed by the estate to the IRS when the property was inherited. A value to the property would have been assigned at that time. Your situation may be different, unless you inherited the property from US citizens. It may be the case that the Polish notary act that gave you title to the property has a value that the IRS will find acceptable.

I think you have a fairly straightforward case on the IRS side of things. Any family / estate planning lawyer should be able to sort you out.

good luck
nierozumiem   
20 May 2008
Real Estate / Market Report - RICS 2008 Poland Housing Review [25]

andy b/ LondonChick, Thanks for the links.

The Interfax Real Estate rerport is handy, but a subscription is £595 Annual. Take a look at the REAS Market Review reports (monthly /quarterly / city based). Most are free and very good. reas.pl/publications.html

but with the still existing deficit of thousands of flats it wont go down. I work for a real estate agency and had met with many of developers, all the buildings which are to be completed in lets say 6 months, almost all apartments are sold.

Please see yesterdays WBJ article: "Decelerating Demand - Poland's residential market has entered a period of relative stabilization after three years of rapid growth. The supply of new homes has outpaced demand, making it unlikely that the market will see new home prices accelerate again in the near future"

wbj.pl/?command=article&id=41232&type=lim

And take a look at the late REAS Q1/2008 report which predicts a growing supply of exposed units on the market and a growing supply of completed yet unsold units well into 2009
nierozumiem   
19 May 2008
Real Estate / Poland Property Boom Spills Over to Poorer Neighbouring Country - GERMANY [39]

And another article with the same theme:

"For us it's cheap here."- Polish assessment of Germany

"The price of real estate in Loeckwitz, 25 kilometers away, is also creating a lot of interest on the other side of the border. Some 200 of the town's 3,000 inhabitants are Polish citizens.

Project manager Jan Rybski moved here a year ago from Szczecin. He is currently overseeing the development of a "German-Polish settlement" targeted at middle-class Poles from nearby metropolitan areas as well as German retirees looking for the quiet life."


dw-world.de/dw/article/0,2144,3342041,00.html
nierozumiem   
19 May 2008
Real Estate / Market Report - RICS 2008 Poland Housing Review [25]

Good point. Has anyone else noticed that RedNet have yet to release a Market Report for April 2008? They've been pretty reliable on these things month-on-month for some time.

If their numbers for April are particularly bad, it would be in their best interest to just not issue a report. RedNet and their friends at Property Secrets have brought a lot of speculators into the market who are still locked up in offplan deals that have yet to complete.

We'll have to wait and see. I don't know of anyone else issuing monthly market reports in Poland. Anyone?
nierozumiem   
7 May 2008
Real Estate / Market Report - RICS 2008 Poland Housing Review [25]

I find it interesting that the prices in Warsaw declined significantly according to RICS when ALL other sources of information on the Polish market list the opposite.

I'm not so sure that you are interpreting the graph correctly. It is strictly mapping the acceleration of asking prices , by developers, on new-build apartments in Krakow and Warsaw. They appear to only have one reading for each year. In 2006 it was Q2, and in 2007 Q3. So the chart shows that between July 2006 and October 2007, the asking price on off plan apartments in Warsaw declined by about 15% points (53-28 points).

As RICS stated, the quality and quantity of data that they have to work from is poor. The 15 month spread is no help either, as it does not show when prices started to decelerate.

I haven't seen anyone else with comparable data. What I have seen from Szybko and Rednet is data on the Selling Price of the primary and secondary markets, which is not an accurate snapshot of the market. For example, if I bought an offplan apartment in 2006 in Warsaw for 6500zl/m2, the final contract would be signed in mid 2007. This distorts the data, as there is no way in mid 2007 you could buy something comparable at 6500zl/m2, but Rednet and Szybko would let the 6500zl/m2 influence their Q2 2007 numbers.

It is arguable if measuring the market by looking at asking prices is any better, but it is a different way of looking at the market, and is just another way for an interested investor to get a handle on what is happening.

Perhaps I am reading the RICS data wrong, but it seems that it could not be too far off target. I wonder if it is inflation adjusted as well?
nierozumiem   
6 May 2008
Real Estate / Market Report - RICS 2008 Poland Housing Review [25]

I'm somewhere in the middle on this. The RICS report is backed up by a lot of data, and it does a thorough job of covering all of the key inputs and influences on the market. I haven't come across a better assessment in English. Combine this with the RedNet Reports, Szybko Reports, independent advice, and current macroeconomic data (see recent concerns from central bank about strengthening zloty) and develop your own opinions. Do your own homework!

RICS is a well respected institution and I don't believe that the report is biased one way or another. However, forecasting housing markets is not an easy thing. So much of it is driven by sentiment, not rationality, and as property is not nearly as fluid as bonds or equities these sentiments take a long time to work through. As the RICS report pointed out, market psychology led many people to continue to buy as prices seemed they would go up forever. The same could happen in reverse due to the high number of foreign speculators on the market, who are not just speculating on Polish property but also the zloty.

I think alligator_s is spot on. Falling prices for the next year or so on new builds, a stand-off in the secondary market with sellers reluctant to accept the new math, and a lot of small developers will go under. And perhaps a few opportunities on deals from nervous investors cashing in on the zloty, especially if the central bank ends the rate hikes.

Another read from the Polish side of things: warsawvoice.pl/view/17325
nierozumiem   
6 May 2008
Real Estate / Market Report - RICS 2008 Poland Housing Review [25]

A realy well put together review of the current state of Polish housing. Best report in English that I've seen with some great supporting data to back up their assessment.

RICS general sentiment seems pretty glum - "The sheer scale of recent price rises suggests there is now a high risk of price correction of substantially greater proportions than a soft landing"

rics.org/Newsroom/Economiccommentary/ehr2008.html

(download "Chapter 12 - Poland")
nierozumiem   
4 May 2008
Real Estate / Legal question about Real Estate and Protocol zdawczo Odbiorczy, help [3]

Am I missing something? You would like to paint / tile / floor an apartment that does not belong to you (as you have not signed a final purchase document).

I am sure that it must be legal, but certainly not wise. (you can paint and tile my house as well, no problem). What if something were to extensivley delay the hand-off of the apartment? What if someone were to destroy / damage your new installations prior to hand-off.

Right now you have the upper hand in this. You owe the developer money, and he is not getting it until he delivers the apartment/building to you in the spec agreed in the contract. Once you start throwing your own, un-recoverable, cash into the Developer's Apartment you are at a serious disadvantage.
nierozumiem   
19 Apr 2008
Real Estate / Global Housing Collapse Spreads East [8]

have been telling forum members for the last 2years that the Polish Real Estate is over priced

I second eleanoroconner on this. Property markets are cyclical. Over the past 2 years all first – third tier cities in Poland have seen increases of 50 -100%. Proclamations of boom and bust are easy. Genius is in the timing.

the housing market in Poland will crash

Crash? Really. I’ll eat my shorts if we see that. A crash would be the result of a gross over-supply of housing units (ex. Ireland, Arizona, Spanish coasts), or a significant number of owners in negative equity that were unable to meet their mortgage payments (US Subprime – Detroit, Ohio, etc). The first instance clearly does not apply to Poland and the second instance is extremely unlikely as Polish lending standards are tight, very few owners are in negative equity positions, and strong wage growth should compensate for rate increases in PLN / EUR / CHF during this period.

lack of money coming in from a depressed US economy

Only 2% of Polish exports are to the US. US FDI is a component of the Polish economy, but not significant. What could be significant is the effect of a US slowdown in tempering the global commodities surge. My sentiment is that the biggest story in regards to the direction of the Polish property market over the next 36 months is the cost of building materials. The Tusk government has already suggested that they will need to start importing cement from China in order to utilize all of the billions of EU funds and to meet Euro 2012 obligations in infrastructure upgrades. Can you imagine being a small developer in Poland in 2 years times trying to get hold of concrete, or iron re-bar?

Without causing a scare campaign some well known property developers are on the verge of bankruptcy

I suspect you are right, but scare campaigns are based on rumours and fear-mongering. Can you name these Developers?

developed structural damage as a result of faulty workmanship and will have to be demolished

There is probably some truth to that. Can you share the names any of these developments?

lot of speculators will have burt there fingers in Polish Real Estate

Indeed. If you take a broad look across the major Polish cities from 4/2007 – 4/2008 you will see a 5% drop in prices. From 4/2008 – 4/2009 I forecast flat prices. From 4/2009 – 4/2010 a few percentage points increase. During that period Poland will have seen 12-15% compounded inflation, IMHO. So a drop of 10 – 15% in inflation adjusted terms. This would be called a “correction”, not a “crash”

heading straight to the cupboard for another stiff drink

A win-win!

No doubt the next few years will be tough on the Polish property market, but good investing is about doing better than the mean. Do your homework, stick to the fundamentals and buy what is undervalued or what you can add value to. If you don’t believe in Poland in the mid to long-term, than get out now. Otherwise keep an eye on inflation, commodities, the zloty, GDP, FDI, wage growth, employment figures and invest accordingly.
nierozumiem   
14 Apr 2008
Real Estate / Poland top overseas property hotspot [29]

To whom you will sell them ?

To me

For how much money ?

10 zł

Why they will buy ?

Because 10zł is a really good deal
nierozumiem   
14 Apr 2008
Real Estate / Global Housing Collapse Spreads East [8]

Really good summary on the global situation:

iht.com/articles/2008/04/13/business/housing.php

With some props to Poland:
"That reality is spreading. Once-sizzling housing markets in Eastern Europe are cooling rapidly, as nervous West Europeans stop buying investment properties in Warsaw, Estonia and other former real estate Klondikes."

"Ireland has the most overvalued housing market in the developed world, according to the IMF. In its recent economic outlook, the fund calculated that prices are 30 percent higher than they should be, given Ireland's economic fundamentals."
nierozumiem   
13 Apr 2008
Real Estate / US Citizen with Polish spouse buying in Poland? [6]

I will be buying land

Ok, that is a different story. Foreigners cannot buy land before 2012. The exception is up to a total of .5 hectare (1.25 acre) of land for residential building purposes. Agricultural and forest land is out of the question. Your Polish spouse should be able to buy any land she wants, but not the 2 of you jointly.

I am already pre-qualified for a mortgage by a UK mortgage company.

It is very difficult to get a mortgage in Poland for pure land. So typically if you find a nice plot of land to build a house on you must pay for the land in cash, then get the mortgage to build a house. So make sure that the UK mortgage will allow you to buy land.

I am looking through allegro

Try gratka.pl/dom

Permit process - for the apartment / house permit it should not matter that you are not resident. Pretty much just a formality

Estate Agent - Poland is a big town. What region are you planning to buy in? If you are still serious about buying land, you may want to contact these guys: plotspy.pl I have never used them, so I can't vouch for them.

Good Luck
nierozumiem   
13 Apr 2008
Real Estate / US Citizen with Polish spouse buying in Poland? [6]

Short Story:
Your Polish spouse - can buy whatever she wants
You - will need a permit for apartments (simple process) and will not be able to buy a house unless it becomes your permanent residence

Process - get pre-approved by Polish bank for mortgage, find a property, get permit, go to notary, bring translator, sign the papers. If you are not a cash buyer then you will probably do a pre-contract and later the final contract.

Mortgage - if self-employed will be impossible for US resident. Otherwise if good stable documented source of income then you will go through a long arduous process with the banks and should receive the credit.

Suggest you get pre-approved for mortgage from the US (may take a few months) and then travel to Poland for the purchase. Expect to spend a few weeks in Poland if buying with mortgage.

You should not jointly buy any property with your non-US citizen spouse for IRS estate purposes, no matter if it is in the US or abroad. She will pay inheritance tax from the first $1 if you are hit by a bus. (Consult a lawyer) So if the property is purchased solely in spouse's name, then the process is simplified on the Polish side, but you will need to be careful of gift-tax if you are helping to fund. If bought solely by you, again no problem, you just need the permit.
nierozumiem   
7 Apr 2008
Real Estate / Poland Property Boom Spills Over to Poorer Neighbouring Country - GERMANY [39]

From today's International Herald Tribune:

iht.com/articles/2008/04/07/business/polecon.php

"Szczecin is our trump card," said Lothar Meistring, the mayor of Löcknitz (GERMANY), where real estate agents say property prices are as much as 20 percent lower than in the Polish city.

But unlike many bleak towns in the former communist East Germany, where birth rates have slumped and apartments stand empty because jobless workers have moved to wealthier western states, brightly painted family homes have mushroomed in Löcknitz, and the town now needs a bigger kindergarten.

Who woulda thunk?
nierozumiem   
26 Mar 2008
Real Estate / Managing Buy-to-Let Properties in Poland [27]

Maybe this is what your advisor was talking about:

"CEE Property Group has simulated rental investment in Poland, assuming 100 percent mortgage finance. The rent will fully cover the monthly capital installment provided the loan is denominated in Swiss francs. It will also cover maintenance and taxes in cities like Wrocław, Katowice and £ódź. The monthly interest payment is treated as the investor's sole contribution. Once the mortgage is paid off, the investor will own the apartment after paying only zl.200-400 per month."
nierozumiem   
26 Mar 2008
Real Estate / Buying land in Bochnia (near Krakow) in five years... [6]

It really depends on how close you want to be to Bochnia, and whether you want land for building, agriculture or recreation.

A plot zoned for building within 400 meters of the rynek will cost about 1000 -1300zl/m2. Within 2 kilometers from the rynek will cost you about 125 - 300zl/m2. The next "ring" out of about 2-5km will cost about 50-100zl/m2. After that, you are into the different outlying villages and can expect 30-50zl/m2, or cheaper. All of these prices depend on access to gas/water/sewage/electricity/etc.

Having said that, you will be very hard pressed even today to buy anything within that 5km zone as it seems that every plot is already a building site, with very few plots listed on the market. I can't imagine that there will be much left in 5 years time.

I both agree and disagree with HELLO's comment about the prices going down in 5 years. On one hand, you will have missed out on any opportunity central to town, on the other hand, I don't think that plots in the outlying villages will retain their long term value. This isn't the UK or Ireland. There is plenty of land, and people are leaving the villages in droves.

However, Bochnia will be directly connected to the new Autostrada A4 (directly in to town) by the UEFA Euro 2012, so things could be a bit frantic in Bochnia at about the time you are looking to buy.

Bochnia has become very trendy over the last 2-3 years with young professionals raising families outside of the city. It is a good sized city with access to shopping/services/good schools/etc. The express train will get you into the centre of Krakow in 30 -35 minutes. The A4 will only make it more attractive.

Try this link (just type in "Bochnia" in the "Miejscowość" field):
gratka.pl/dom/dzialki-grunty-sprzedam
nierozumiem   
10 Mar 2008
Law / Financing in Poland [12]

Property development is always about creative financing, but I suggest 2 basic ways of financing such a project:

1.) Find a partner with equity prior to purchasing the property, somebody with a big enough bankroll to finance the purchase and development and willing to part with their cash for 2-3 years while the project is realized. You would need to give up a significant stake in ownership and control. I don't think you would be able to find a bank in Poland to finance this way, just private equity.

2.) Buy the property yourself, get planning permission, put together plans with an architect and then sell the apartments "off-plan". Use the staged deposit money from the buyers of the apartments to fund the development.

My thoughts on this particular property:

The price/sqm seems amazing, and I can see why that may make it look tempting at first glance. But what would you do with the property? Factory / Manufacturing? - No, it is 1940s architecture w/ infrastructure unsuitable for modern production. Warehouse / Distribution? - No, it is in the middle of the sticks with no major road infrastructure. Hotel? - No!

Okay, so 3000sqm of apartments like the Advert suggests? Purchase + Project/Planning + Renovation/Building + Sales/Marketing = a minimum 1500zl/sqm. So what would an apartment sell for in Żagań? About 1500zl/sqm. Would the local market be able to absorb 60 new apartments? Probably not. Profit = 0 zloty and you are stuck with 50 unsold apartments.

Bear in mind that many regions of Poland are deeply impoverished and rapidly de-populating. If Germany is any lesson, these regions are unlikely to change soon. Read this article from the weekend about German poverty:

news.yahoo/s/afp/20080310/lf_afp/germanyeconomydemographysocial_080310032444

I think that even if you were given the building for free you would be unable to make a profit turning it into apartments. There may be something creative things you could do with the property without investing any more cash in it? Film production? Artist studios? If you could rent the entire building out for 5000zl/month you would have a very comfortable 10% yield after covering costs.

Sorry for being so negative, but right now the property market in Poland is just a story of cash chasing cash. There are certainly deals out there, but you may be best waiting on the sidelines for a few years.