I was about to post to this as its close to me as I live in Krakow but my blog tells it better.
I have to say that there are many very dubious "facts" reported in your blog concerning the Polish real estate market.
"Real estate costs 7000 pln a square meter for a flat in Krakow. The average in the EU is 3000 pln a square meter."
I don't dispute the average price for Krakow, but you really think this is accurate for the EU? Give me a break.
"Speculators are pulling out of the Polish real estate market for greener pastures, ie rising price real estate markets, for example Bulgaria and other new land rushes"
Sorry, but this is incorrect. May have been true a year or two ago, but right now there are no greener pastures. The fact is, there are gathering stormclouds on the economic horizon in many CEE countries - Hungary, Baltic States, Romania, Bulgaria. Poland has a much healthier economy thank these countries, and it could be regarded as somewhat of a safehaven in the region.
You can read a very interesting article from the Economist here about the region:
"In the Polish real estate market, I would not pay more than 2000 pln a square meter. Really. I could build a house in the countryside for that or have a beach front property in Florida for the same price, why would I pay 3.5 times the price for a flat in Krakow?"
Rubbish. Did you factor in the cost of buying the land to build your house on? And you are building it yourself?
Good luck getting a house on the beach front in Florida for $700 USD per m2. Property may be depressed in the USA, but not that much.
"Polish banks 1 year ago gave out 110% credit, no money down. Now they require 30% down. Their rejection rate 1 year about was 2 in 10 people, now they reject 8 in 10 people for a loan."
Again, this is incorrect information. We are still dealing with banks who will loan up to 90% LTV, and that is to Poles and foreingers. You are presenting your opinion as facts which is very misleading.
OK, I am an agent in Krakow and also assist foreigners to get mortgages in Poland.
I am biased, no doubt about it.
But no-one intelligent is going to believe your assertion that prices will fall by 50% in Krakow based on these 'facts' you have come up with.
No European property markets are looking healthy at the moment, and you dont need me to tell you why. Having said that though, the fundaments of the Polish economy remain strong, and there is still strong demand from Polish buyers. There is a wait and see approach from buyers at present, which is fair enough. But I can see that when good properties come on to the market at realistic prices, there are buyers for them. I know this from recent experience.