Tell me, would Ireland have achieved all of this had it been OUTSIDE the EU? Probably not. The point is, once inside, Ireland's super low corporation tax rate made it an obvious location for foreign companies' European HQs. Poland is following a similar (though not identical) route with big personal tax cuts from Jan 2009.
Thats impossible to say, but why wouldnt it have achieved this growth OUTSIDE the EU ? Being in the EU had little or no consequence to our economic growth, we were one of the poorest countries in Europe for most of our membership and our new economic success has nothing to do with being in the EU. What do you mean 'once inside' ? We were the ones who broke away from the european taxation norm against their wishes. One of the reasons we rejected the lisbon treaty recently was also because we dont want EU interference in our taxation laws. The point is that Irelands low taxation rate has been challenged consistently by the EU who see it as very unfair to the other member states and want a unilateral taxation system throughout the EU. If it wasnt for one of our own at the helm there, it would have been gone years ago and its a constant fight to keep it in place. Its no secret either that Poland is copying Irelands role model but it can never be as successful as that train has passed to much of an extent.
Considering Germany is now head over heels in a recession, the plunging stock market and the weakening of the Polish currency I suspect its very naive to think Poland will be sheltered from the recession. The ironic thing is that if Poland were already in the euro, that would have sheltered them a little . The average mortgage has gone up about 1 fifth which is relatively a lot, and it isnt any secret that many poles have mortgages out in other currencies which leads them scaringly exposed to the markets swings and roundabouts.
Outsourcing is massively important to Poland, and the Polish goverments template is to prioritise its outsourcing potential (thus why they want to copy Ireland) Emerging market countries such as Poland are hardly a homogenous group, but they face similar challenges to us all and will shake, even if it isnt as apparent yet. The inevitable outflows of investor capital driving down your stock markets and pressuring your currencies even more is occurring just as the demand abroad for your outsourcing and exports, has begun to weaken in countries such as germany etc. Coincidently you also mentioned earlier that germanys downturn wont adversely affect Germanys economy as they have already agreed contracts with germany that will shield you from any problems there, Im intrigued ???? Tell me more about this please.
Migrants returning home are going to be a huge burden on Polands economy, most economists anticipate a huge increase in unemployment over the coming years and its not the "waitressing/cleaning/nannying" ones I speak of, but the millions of polish employed in the construction industries that have collapsed. In Ireland the charity soup kitchens and homeless shelters are bursting with Polish construction workers and trades men who have lost their jobs. Most will return home soon as possible, the Irish goverment has agreed to help them with flights home etc (well its not Irish tax payers choice, nanny EU makes them). Not to mention the waitresses who are out of jobs because people arent eating out as much anymore and their employers inevitably have to shut up shop, restaurants are closing, the cleaners in the hotels are getting let off because bookings are down 30% / 50%....these people are going home, they have no other option, home to Poland . . . I doubt they will be worried about gaining employment first, or even if they will be successful in doing so. Of all the Polish in Ireland, it is estimated that about 60 % of what is left here will be in Poland next year.
Is Polish unemployment increasing? No, it's still decreasing, and growth is both positive and strong
Polish unemployment was 20% in 2003 before they joined the EU and were able to seek work abroad. I suspect it will rise to in or around 10% within the next 2/3 yrs, its virtually impossible to predict after that but I would guess it will follow expected trends, upwards.
Sorry to contredict this optimism but according to this article from the Warsaw Business Journal , Unemployment IS increasing in Poland like everywhere nowadays.
True, and I think this optimisim shared by many poles isnt a true reflection of the reality of what is occuring
I totally agree.
The Poles and Baltic workers have earned a reputation for honesty and hard work that puts there UK workmates to shame.
Especially the under 25's.
Couldnt agree more, the poles in ireland have trmendous respect for their work ethic and honesty in general