I find it interesting that the prices in Warsaw declined significantly according to RICS when ALL other sources of information on the Polish market list the opposite.
I'm not so sure that you are interpreting the graph correctly. It is strictly mapping the acceleration of asking prices
, by developers, on new-build apartments in Krakow and Warsaw. They appear to only have one reading for each year. In 2006 it was Q2, and in 2007 Q3. So the chart shows that between July 2006 and October 2007, the asking price on off plan apartments in Warsaw declined by about 15% points (53-28 points).
As RICS stated, the quality and quantity of data that they have to work from is poor. The 15 month spread is no help either, as it does not show when prices started to decelerate.
I haven't seen anyone else with comparable data. What I have seen from Szybko and Rednet is data on the Selling Price of the primary and secondary markets
, which is not an accurate snapshot of the market. For example, if I bought an offplan apartment in 2006 in Warsaw for 6500zl/m2, the final contract would be signed in mid 2007. This distorts the data, as there is no way in mid 2007 you could buy something comparable at 6500zl/m2, but Rednet and Szybko would let the 6500zl/m2 influence their Q2 2007 numbers.
It is arguable if measuring the market by looking at asking prices is any better, but it is a different way of looking at the market, and is just another way for an interested investor to get a handle on what is happening.
Perhaps I am reading the RICS data wrong, but it seems that it could not be too far off target. I wonder if it is inflation adjusted as well?