House prices in Poland to drop more or rise again?

6 months ago the dollar:zloty exchange rate was 2.0, now it's 3.7-3.8. When you consider real estate in Poland has decreased 20% and add the appreciation of the dollar in the last six months, you are getting properties at about 55-60% discounts from six months ago.

I guess if the eastern european economies do implode, 70-80% discounts are possible by the end of the year with the currency depreciation buying in dollars or euros.

Question about whether prices will drop further is interesting for me, since I'm about to buy an apartement in Poland.
I'm from Denmark.

I'm not an expert, but I beleive prices will drop further in coming months. 25% of polish apartemets/houses are financed in swiss franc. In Ukraine I think it is 60% and in some baltic countries up to 85%!!

Now everybody talk about the potential risk of a "swiss collaps", when owners of house in these countries, have to sell out (due to dropping value of PLN and financial crise).

It should be stressed that most 'house' price analyses for Poland and other countries in Europe are actually for 'flats' and not houses per se. It is a grave error to bundle the drop in 'flat' prices with that of private 'house' prices. Keep in mind, as I have often mentioned numerous times on Polish Forums, land exceeding 1 hectare has not been allowed for sale to foreigners without permission from the Polish government. That law will end in the year 2016. This pertains to private houses on such land, and small farms. This is where the real estate market in Poland still thrives and has the most potential. I can attest to that since I own a large small farm exceeding 7 hectares, with a new home, barn, two farm buildings, arable land and forests, well with spring water, plumbing, and electricity. Such property represents true ownership, rather than a cramped flat in a large concrete apartment building stuffed with hundred's of other families.

Give quotes or examples of this bravado and swaggering.
You sound bitter.


Again give some evidence.


What are you talking about?, do i care.


Wow, you really are a bitter little person.

and resentful

what happened jak - did you miss out on something you thought was yours...?

This is quite interesting. I hadn’t heard this before, not even in the thread about foreigners buying Polish properties.

That date is for ever changing

It is true. Foreigners are allowed to buy a flat without any permission, and as many as they wish. They can also buy a private home on a parcel of land less than 1 hectare also without permission, although, permission may be necessary under certain circumstances. Anything exceeding 1 hectare needs permission without a doubt until the year 2016. This mostly has to do with the status of being a 'farmer' and the special privileges they have when it comes to insurance, pension, and taxes.

To me it is clearly a hidden market in Poland that most foreigners don't pay attention to. Also, all of the property price reports focus only on flats, and not the houses on larger parcels of land. They tend to group everything into 'property' or 'houses', which isn't accurate at all. It is true that there are currently an abundance of flats on the market for resale. Small farms are much more scarce, although there are some still to be found at reasonable prices.


It really is. I remember at one time the date was 2012, and then got bumped up to 2016. I think Poland is trying to keep the date in sync with when Germany allows Poles to work in their country legally.

I like it. During the discussions about foreigners buying up Poland I was hoping to see some sort of government protections in place. But no one mentioned this provision.

A little protectionist nationalism is good, particularly during difficult times. A hectare is like an acre?

Agreed, I think this provision is a good one. Another theory behind this was to give some time for land prices in Poland to reach a near equilibrium with Western European countries.

1 hectare = 2.471 acres

Thanks. That is all very interesting.
Hey, you’re the guy that’s gonna open the outdoor/ off road adventure camp, right? How were you able to buy your property if you’re not Polish? Your wife?

You're very welcome.


No, that was probably Wildrover. I'm more into Agro / Eco Tourism, and hope to complete and open a pub in my barn along with activities in the other half of the building, like ping pong, basketball, and even dances every once in a while.


I was able to buy my property in Poland because my mother was born and raised in Poland and later went to the USA. I was born in the USA, but now I hold dual citizenship (USA and Poland). Poland has a great law which allows non-Polish born individuals to become a Polish citizen if one of your parents or even grandparents were born in Poland. If this is the case, in Poland's eyes, you are a native Pole. So, I was able to purchase as much land as I wanted, unrestricted.

Cool. Like Dwight! What else? Bed & breakfast? Weddings? Corn maze? Horse riding? Hay rides? Vineyard? Haunted barn at Halloween?
If I ever get over to Poland I’ll stop by for a beer and the Saturday night barn dance!
What part of P-Land?

What a great idea - good luck!

Why don't you sign up and become a member, JAK?

scorpio, lol, are you trying to edge people up for the next Polish boom and thus make yourself rich, forget it and don't delude yourself, stop trying to suck in people to loose more money in the real estate market. Unless Poland is different, in the States and elsewhere a country property is just a country property and is priced accordingly, If property prices increase it will do so in city locations. The country is where the natives live, take a drive to a country town and see for yourself.

Many thanks for that - good idea - I do plan to buy - for my family use - and I will no doubt find some tips from the good people here :-)

B&B, maybe horse riding and hay rides in the future. You are welcome to visit anytime. I'm about 30 km south of Tarnów in the mountains.


I'm quite comfortable financially already, so there is no reason to 'suck' people into doing anything. The fact is, parcels of land over 1 hectare haven't been exposed properly to any form of supply and demand 'Europe-wide', so prices haven't been determined according to true market value yet, which makes land / forest / meadows underpriced. It's no delusion.

You sound very bitter "Guest". Why hide behind a guest nick?

Extract from Bank Zachodni Bulletin "Macroscope" Feb 2009, "Housing Market Update".
December saw continuation of a fall in offered flat prices in Poland’s major cities. The exception was Poznań where a slight correction of the significant fall in two previous months took place. Looking at annual price change in December, the Warsaw market remains the relatively strongest with a mere 2% price drop. The worst performers are still Poznań (-7%) and Krakow (-11%).

In the near term, the unfavourable relation between demand and supply (the number of dwellings completed and offer of flats bought earlier for speculative purposes is clearly higher than the number of active buyers) will lead to further fall in prices during 2009, which in our view will top 10% on average in the whole country.

let me guess, youre an american with no experience of realestate, or life for that matter, anywhwere else in the world...

Your prognosis is fair and accurate, because you specify a component of the real estate market ("flats") instead of lumping the housing category into one. That's what more property analysts should be doing. They should be more specific as there are obviously various components comprising real estate.

Recently in my village, there was an old wooden home in inhabitable shape (no other farm buildings except for an outhouse) for sale down the mountain from me, near a stream and paved road. It sits on only 0.40 hectares of arable land with no forest and has electric and well water. A nearby local Polish family just purchased it for 120,000 zloty. In itself, this amount of land would not qualify someone to become a farmer. However, this particular family already owns over 3 hectares elsewhere in the village, so they can live there and maintain their farmer status. Overall, a good investment as opposed to dropping money on a flat.

i was wondering why no natives anywhere in Warsaw...

Houses and land seem to be holding their prices fairly stable, i noticed houses in some of big the cities are actually increasing in price due to the over supply of flats and apartments.

It's a good time to buy in Gliwice. Most property prices are dropping. Strike while the iron is hot I say.

misquote

do be careful dear fellow, it tends to cause the most unnecessary offence

Agreed, I notice that as well. There also seems to be an influx of people now longing to own their own house on a piece of land where they can breath a bit.

I'll give you some examples of the recent activity in my village. A Spaniard who has a Polish wife just recently purchased a large brick home here near the parish church. They have around 1/3 hectare of land surrounding their home and recently put in a new roof. We now have about 8 families from the Śląsk area that have bought wooden homes and farms here. One Pole from Tarnów bought a farm and now produces home made wine and sells rabbits. Another Pole from Tarnów bought vacant, unused farm land on top of the highest mountain here and opened up a very successful ski area. It's not large like Krynica, but people still swarm in to go skiing. Two villages away from me, the number of people from Śląsk is even higher. In an adjacent village, a German (along with his Polish wife) bought a charming farm exceeding 3 hectares and great views, before I moved into the area. He got a great price and that was in the year 2000. The family that sold it to him seems to be regretting the sale because they know they could have gotten over 15 times more for the same farm today. This is an unfortunate consequence for those locals who sold in the early 2000's (or even before that). Not many people really anticipated how much of a demand there would be for the simple rural life.

this is inevitable and hardly suprising

but i remember just a few years ago saying to friends who wanted to buy in the 3M that they would be so much better off looking just a little way out of the city - more for your money, fresh air, garden for the kids and dog, close to shops etc on the obwodnice, and only a short drive to Sopot, Gdansk or Gdynia

but would they listen...?

whatever

except for my business partner who took my advice, bought a good sized plot in rebiechowo for a bargain price, built a beautiful house and is now enjoying a much better life

If i remember rightly originally it was supposed to be 5 years after Polands EU accession. That'd be May this year.

You seem to know a great deal about the local transactions, Scorpio. Are you involved in local planning or tourist board? Are you and your friends trying to turn southern Poland into a rural tourist destination? Maybe this would require its own thread?

When living in a village and area with such a small population, how can you not know what is going on around you? Everyone pretty much knows about everyone else's business here. One doesn't even have to buy a local newspaper...just talk to your neighbors. This is very typical.

I'm not involved in any local planning or tourist board. I came here over 6 years ago by myself as a foreigner and built a new home. My nearest relatives are about 70 km north of me. This has been my primary residence ever since then. It really is beautiful. I'm not promoting this area in any "organized" way, however, I don't mind when tourists do visit and stay with me. It's also good to inform others who seek a similar lifestyle what's it's like here. I would also welcome opinions from others who have a rural lifestyle in Poland. This would provide a more balanced view on living conditions and the real estate market in a rural setting.