House prices in Poland to drop more or rise again?

But thats not how we do business in the west bolek, despite what your country men may think.

We would rather create a business situation that is beneficial for all involved, rather than just ourselves. The purpose of this, which many Poles have yet to grasp, is that if business goes well today then this increases the chance of us doing business again tomorrow.

In business Poles tend to think about how much they can make today. And give very little though to tomorrow

And this isnt a bad habit they have picked up from the west

I agree, you probally need to understand that the average Pole is still under the influence of the communist past, poles love to big note and put others down because they have a few more zlotes, I think you know what I mean

Thank you for your input.

The plot is building land comes with a planning permission( with 30% allowed for building).

access to water and electricity.
next door plot owner is building a big brick house.

the owner sold already two plot for 85plz per sq mtr on Allegro website over a year ago.

WB, how about flats? Is it generally a better or worse time to invest? I wouldn't mind a 2-bedroomed place and I have to think about credit.

I wouldnt buy a flat for a while, best not to purchase on a down turn. You never know how long the curve will head down for, even when it reaches the bottom there will still be a six month period before prices start moving up again. That is of course if it really is at the bottom.

I dont think you'll have much chance of gaining credit at the moment anyway, certain banks are not even entertaining clients with exceptional credit history and 30% down payments.

Its one big shite cake im afraid and we all have to take a bite. If youre looking for investment properties id head out of town, some real bargains to be had. One of the problems in Poland is you cant make offers unless youve got credit in place, you cant gain mortgage 100% pre-approval till youve found a property.

I agree with you.
I would just add to the bit I quoted.
Banks only give money to the people who have it.

I thought that may be the case. SeanBM, sound bloke, recommended doing the same. My fiancee is gonna pass her driving test next month and I fancy a shot at driving again. Commuting could be a ballache in the winter months but the prospect of negotiating the snow and potholes ain't so bad.

The Polish market sounds unforgiving. How does it differ from the UK market in your experience, WB? I understand that this is specialist stuff which I should be paying for so just tell me what you want to. Anything would be appreciated :)

I wanted to drift into real estate after my first law course at Uni but decided to do my postgrad and then travel. For better or for worse.

Its 20 years younger.

Aha, and the property market is like whisky for the most part? :)

No the property market is not like wine or whisky.

An old property is degrading, the plumbing starts leaking,
problems over problems, needing renovation and so on.

For an old property, noone sane should pay more than 2500 pln/sq.m.

At the level of now prices, real estate prices still have to go down about 50-80%
before they can even stabilize.

That all depends on the definition of old, old as in communist blocks? wouldnt touch them with a barge pole, old as in kamieniec, those fantastic gothic rock solid buildings in the cities now theres a tempting prospect. Have you ever heard "they just dont make them like that anymore"? the same applies to build quality, developers are constantly looking for corners to cut in order to increase profit.

With the amount of cowboy builders sprouting up all over Poland over the past few years new often means expensive repairs within weeks of moving in. Leaking pipes in the walls, cracked ceilings, poor electricity installation. In any case its all about the sales sprice, old for less budgeting for renovation or new.


Not in a million years.

Let's see: we have about 600 000 poles selling their properties... and maybe about 200 buying (the ones that are totally airheads).

Prices expected to fall about 30% - 60%.

Do your own maths ;)

Certainly.

You can't afford to buy a property in Krakow, so in your somewhat damaged mind, you think that by spamming online about property prices falling, people might believe you and bring prices down to the point where you might be able to buy.

Or are you just bitter that you're going to be pushed out of your area as it becomes gentrified?

Same here in UK, Just wait till the Torys get in on 6th May,,

When exactly? And do you expect that to happen in Warsaw also, as that is where I would like to buy a flat. In the suburbs, not the centre. But I'm probably looking at one year from now.

Asset bubbles don't usually dramatically pop, they deflate...And usually slower than the inflation happened. Prices were going up 15-25% year on year from '04-'08, should drop by about the same amount (the biggest 20%, the first, is already gone). The interesting thing about this bubble though, is that the government will try to fight against it.


My apartment was built in the late 1800's, rock solid, no problems. I'd buy a place like this without thinking twice about it. As far as the panelaks, most of the ones that I have seen have been alright...Especially the low rise ones <6 stories. Biskupin has some really nice low rise buildings. I think they get a much worse rap than they actually deserve.

convex wrote:


it's great that your apt. is "rock solid" and that it can withstand scud missles and tank rounds, but honestly, a lot of people say that about apts./houses out here, and i just don't see the point of it.

my family, and all of my friends back home in Duhmerica have wooden houses. 2X4's, plywood, sheet rock, some insulation, i juz. dom. unless you're anticipating tornadoes or hurricanes, what's the point of spending all that money on brick and concrete and whatever else people use out here to build their........fortresses. i'd love a brick home, they look beautiful and I'd assume hold heat quite nice, but would I spend an extra $100,000 so I could have brick? no. as for hurricanes and tornadoes....i guess that's what home owner's insurance is for.

That is, rock solid compared to the new places that are having problems with walls and foundations cracking.


I guess it depends on where you place your priorities. Houses where I come from are brick... but then again, winters are cold and spring can get windy. It's nice to have a house that you can keep warm...and that won't have structural problems after 25 years.

There are builders and then there are builders. The foundations I put in for my two story apartments are much better than the standard used in the UK. There, they use a "trench fill" with a 600mm wide by 225mm depth of concrete. I am happy to give a 10 year guarantee on the structure, no problem.

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Sorry, didn't want to insinuate that all new constructions are sub par. But I think that you can probably agree that there are quite a few "builders" that hopped on the bandwagon and delivered a bad product...and that quite a few buyers were more interested in just getting into a place as opposed to buying into a quality place.

No offence taken Convex. I was a member of the Federation of Master Builders for over 30 years.
I know all about "cowboy builders".

Only for innner city apartments and houses, apartments will continue to drop in the larger cities but everything else should remain reltively stable..


Wouldnt they always in most countries?

Heres my prediction; virtually no movement with a possible drop of upto 10% on inner city apartments throughout the remainder of this year. Feb and March of 2011 prices will stabilise as the banks begin to start lending again, followed by a slow recovery in the property sector.

The bubble was in city property. The stuff in the countryside never went up at ridiculous levels, so it won't drop by ridiculous levels.


Yea, it's sad.


Recovery? There was a correction. Interest rates are going to go up, less people will borrow money...

Supply and demand, all inner city property went up but houses with gardens remain relitevly stable. Apartments are in over supply so they shoud drop a fair amount.


Sad perhaps, theres fors and against all depends what team youre batting for.


A market correction was long overdue, interest rates may traditionally rise in times like these but thats not going to stimulate the market? A new approach is called for, i think were witnessing that with the bailout packages. The property market needs to move, hiked interest rates arent going to help that so lets see what they come up with this time.

I read in a polish language web page that the property prices are now termed as abstract since they are extremely out of reach for the vast majority of poles(old news i know). The prices are as much as 50 % below the asking prices and the bubble property holders are in denial and waiting for a miracle return of growth, so they are holding back in a big game of bluff. This link describes the bubble in the USA but its the same scam as Europe.

chrismartenson.com/crashcourse/chapter-15-bubbles

After watching this link The question is.. what happens when the bubble is not even based on the workers in the country but by Polish working for wages 5 or 6 times higher in the west. I hear that the prices are very slow to drop in the eastern part of Poland as this is where there is the highest emigration and in countrys like Czech Republic the prices are crashing because they didnt have such mass migration to England and Ireland etc. Crashing back to normality for the average worker in the country.

What will happen to Poland will it stay abstract for years to come????

Yes that is true, to understand the property market in Poland is to understand the Polish mentality, ie you tell a pole that his property is worth so and so (of course more) he will believe you, if you tell him it has crashed you will be his worse enemy. The fact remains that properties in central warsaw and Krakow will increase, properties in the outer regions will decrease. Unfortunately this forum has been hijacked by speculators in the property and real estate market who have given a false and misleading assessment of what is happening in real estate in Poland. Fortunately less and less of these cowboys are responding as they have packed their bags and gone home.

Its a human mentality, everywhere is the same.

Warsaw Business Journal

Rebuilding demand

26th April 2010
Banks are increasingly active in home lending, but continuing restrictions on project loans mean that developers are having trouble keeping up with demand

Max 100 words + URL

If you read the above artical and recall my posts, warning that the banks witholding funds from developers would cause a shortage, which, will push prices back up. It is not in the Banks interest to have mortgages with negative equity, thus they and the developers will control the prices.

I fully expect to hear replies that developers will still be building and selling properties for 50% of the cost of building them, this has not happened yet. Perhaps Milky can explain to you all why property prices in the UK have risen by 10% over the past year compared to 2007 prices. (1.2% in the past month) Perhaps this means the the British property sellers have the same attitude as the Polish sellers?

I have been buying property in Poland during the past couple of years. My interest is in old country properties. I started out 'stary eyed', as most do. To have a dream can be quite intoxicating... the harsh facts of reality are very sobering!

The houses can be wonderful, but the locations, more often than not, leave a huge amount to be desired. And then, there is the 'culture' thing. You are not simply buying somewhere to live, but buying into a rural community where your every action will be observed and judged - with a fair measure of mistrust, resentment and even hostility. The locals/neighbours will almost without exception be poor peasants whose idea of neighbourliness will be to view you as a potential source of income. They will soon come knocking on the door offering to supply you with firewood or to cut the grass. Not a bad thing you may think - perhaps not, until you discover that every Tom, Dick and Harry (or whatever the Polish equivalent is of this saying) in the area expects you to pay them for the offer of some trivial service. Woe betide the owner of the big country house who turns away the locals!

You are not seen as simply a person wanting to buy a house to live in some comfort, peace and quiet - and maybe do a bit of gardening and painting on the side. You are given the title of INVESTOR (add the word 'rich'). Every pile of rubble is now described as having the potential to become a hotel, sauna, health spa etc - and what appears to be a favourite, that you could breed race horses there! And, of course, these 'wonderful business opportunities' (piles of rubble) have prices to match - anything up to eight million zloty!!!!

The rural villages where the historic properties lie suffer from a dreadful lack of investment and unemployment is high. Despite living at a subsistence level, the locals seem to find money for drink and cigarettes and old cars! The owner of the big house will be viewed as fair game! To stand any chance of survival in the small, poor community you will have to adopt the role of the benevolent rich uncle. You will have to learn to live with a community which has a mentality that they are doing penance because they are poor, and because you are not, you will be expected (for 'be expected', read 'have to') give to them.

And then there are the sitting tenants! The sitting tenant will not understand that neither you, nor the state, owe him/her anything. He/she believes that the responsibility for his/her life lies somewhere outwith him/herself. You will have to be her rich uncle. He/she will not understand why, if the rich uncle is so rich, you cannot simply go and live somewhere else. Why do you want to live in 'his/her' house. The fact that you are the new OWNER of the 'big house' will class you as the latest in a long line of capitalist oppressors!

The historic buildings konservator will also see you as a rich uncle. You will be expected to provide employment for numerous local 'craftsmen' (cowboys). And of course, you will have to engage a team of 'professionals' (more cowboys0 to ensure that everything is submitted, approved and completed according to 'regulations'. I have never seen such mind boggling volumes of paperwork required by a 'system'... and I worked in the Civil Service in the UK for almost 10 years!!

Unlike in the UK, where property is valued by a Chartered Surveyor, in Poland the 'price' is determined by the seller - or should I say, greedy seller. Old properties have more often than not been bought at auction (often Government auction) during the 'good old days' a few years ago, for next to nothing. Now the owners, after spending some time on the internet looking at prices in other countries, believe that they are property owning millionaires! They sincerely believe that their pile is suddenly now worth a fortune, and have no qualms in asking you for a few million!!!! If you try to point out that they are mistaken, they will get very upset and angry - accusing you of not being a 'serious buyer', and the like!

Despite all this, there are still some great properties out there - and most importantly, at the right price. These are becoming more and more extremely difficult to find.

So, in answer to the question 'will prices go up or down' - as in all aspects of buying and selling, it depends on one thing and only one thing.... the price you bought for in the first place. If you pay to much, you will be a loser.

Please excuse the rambling.

Dunno Mark, why don't you tell us why you don't own property if prices are so low?