The current property boom in Poland is a bubble

Will this give the NPB reason to cut interest rates further in March?

Honestly,why you think was wiser?During that time in 2000 i bought a flat in centre paid 2500zl a sq mtr for 39odd sq metres.I wish someone would have guided me and I wouldve bought a house there.But I underestimated Poland and no one to guide me until in 2004 i woke up and started buying.After that till 2008 I kept on buying...but right now the prices vary so much in centrum that its unbeleiveable from 3k a sq m to 24 k a sq m.I wish I could post links here to prove but I dunno how to.....just to proove look at otodom commercials on allegro.pl,infact im now looking something for 10% return which i did but dont know yet till i meet the realtors who freeking lie to get people calling them to show another fuked up property.

I only invested in new builds with personal invites.

No, its not the definition of a bubble, Can you show me this definition, I've never seen it before. This is wiki's definition -


What happens after to a bubble is irrelevant. You argument that prices will fall gradually - not crash - may or may nor be true, however a bubble describes the rise in prices, not a fall.

Time will tell what happens to prices.

Commiserations on buying in 2010. I bought in 2009, at the peak of the market apparently.

Definition of 'Housing Bubble'
A run-up in housing prices fueled by demand, speculation and the belief that recent history is an infallible forecast of the future. Housing bubbles usually start with an increase in demand (a shift to the right in the demand curve), in the face of limited supply which takes a relatively long period of time to replenish and increase. Speculators enter the market, believing that profits can be made through short-term buying and selling. This further drives demand.


Read more: investopedia.com/terms/h/housing_bubble.asp#ixzz2JJFEdr7F

pip
the graph on the link below, that's not a bubble?

globalpropertyguide.com/Europe/Poland/Price-History

Bro can you hook me up? Im seriously looking for something at the moment.

I wouldn't say these numbers from this article are showing that there is a bubble.

This woman is claiming prices will return to pre-boom prices.

I doubt that. However, a study just came out, I think it is Price Waterhouse, I could be wrong though, saying that Poland is not set to show real signs of major slow down until 2035. Of course, there is no way of ever knowing this is true until we reach that year- there will be highs and lows along the way.

What are pre boom prices considered to be?

Roughly a third of what they are now.

Anyone able to translate or give a brief transcript of the report and say who it was with that pessimistic analysis? thanks

hahahahahahahahahaahahahahhaahahahah


before the bubble lol

and this is probably why you don't any property while a few of us here own a few. Keep going, you are having great success.

Pip, you don't understand one basic thing: if someone repeats a thing a thousand times, this becomes a sacred true. If someone says there is a bubble a thousand times, that buble exists and that is all there is to it !!!

Maybe they are right in there own way,its like22 years to come.There are ups and downs in 2 decades,and maybe they are predicting the worse slow down then.The current slow down I think will continue till 2015/16 when it will bottom out,but the slow down now will be gradual(I think),until banks choke,people will collect money and cant wait to invest(like its happening in states now) and slowly the market picks up.

I should say I base that on what Wroclaw Boy posted the other day about a house near Partynice. I could be wrong of course, I could be way, way out. Perhaps for flats, it's almost half what they are now and for houses perhaps 60% less than now. Adjusting for inflation, however, I ain't got a clue. I should add that unlike perhaps some of the posters on this thread, I am in no way a trained economist or property professional -- so take my remarks with a pinch of salt :o)

Anyone able to translate or give a brief transcript of the report Milky posted and say who it was with that pessimistic analysis? thanks

You have to be part of the Spółdzielnia. This was done by buying a share in the company many years ago, now they are not taking anymore investors on as they have a large enough client base. Approach developers and ask them to put you on the list for new builds.

Because of the risk of inflation?

I think I have to stay away from this thread because I end up banging my head against a brick wall.

Because your unconscious mind is telling you something that is creating dissonance in your mind.

The theory of cognitive dissonance in social psychology proposes that people have a motivational drive to reduce dissonance by altering existing cognitions, adding new ones to create a consistent belief system, or alternatively by reducing the importance of any one of the dissonant elements.[1] It is the distressing mental state that people feel when they "find themselves doing things that don't fit with what they know, or having opinions that do not fit with other opinions they hold." [4] A key assumption is that people want their expectations to meet reality, creating a sense of equilibrium.

and as for bubble denial
Likewise, another assumption is that a person will avoid situations or information sources that give rise to feelings of uneasiness, or dissonance.[1]

You lose more off the value of your property each year than Milky will ever earn, he's such a loser!

Latest REAS report is out.

media.reas.pl/en/pr/232656/residential-market-in-poland-in-q4-2012?rss=true

I still don't see new apartments for sale at 1,500 zloty m2 in the city centres yet, do you? Have you managed to save a deposit after four years? The only expectations you are likely to have is a novel written by Charles Dickens.

Here is the WBJ's write up on the PWC report wbj.pl/article-61672-steady-then-slower-growth.html

It si not exactly hoe you have described it Pip it states the Polish economy will grow on average by 2% per annum until it comes into line with Germany. In essence it is saying the heady days are over and we are back to reality.

Here is another article from the WBJ on the same day wbj.pl/article-61661-nearly-half-of-polish-companies-in-bad-financial-shape.html

thats ok
i can accept 2% per annum
but wont it take a long time at that rate

you never know how 2011-2018 financial settlement will look too
could be that the eu will be booming and poland will gain lots

Having read your lecture in social physiology directed at Pip, I strongly find that the contents of this lecture matches yourself to a much greater degree than Pip or anyone else taking part in the discussions of this thread

Ha, ha, good one Ziemowit!

with all the respect....well it depends ...as u said the market is not blooming it is in crisis...and yes it is true...wages are low and jobs insecure but speaking about English housing people here in their blocks of flats may feel like bathing in luxury...there s a world of difference ....between nice warm snug and cosy Polish flat and mouldy musty x-bed in the Uk...and there are milions of Poles who invest in Poland saving each single penny on a flat or house here...

Like this?

/img/poland-house-prices.gif - Not a bubble, not popping

We have agreed in earlier posts, that between 2004-2008 prices increased by some 243% (100% in one year) and yet, the graph you are using to illustrate your point, only goes up to 50%. I'm sure you will explain it to me.

and me, please.