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The current property boom in Poland is a bubble


InWroclaw 89 | 1,915
26 Jan 2013 #211
Will this give the NPB reason to cut interest rates further in March?
MoOli 9 | 484
27 Jan 2013 #212
we opted for the second choice and it proved to be the wiser.

Honestly,why you think was wiser?During that time in 2000 i bought a flat in centre paid 2500zl a sq mtr for 39odd sq metres.I wish someone would have guided me and I wouldve bought a house there.But I underestimated Poland and no one to guide me until in 2004 i woke up and started buying.After that till 2008 I kept on buying...but right now the prices vary so much in centrum that its unbeleiveable from 3k a sq m to 24 k a sq m.I wish I could post links here to prove but I dunno how to.....just to proove look at otodom commercials on allegro.pl,infact im now looking something for 10% return which i did but dont know yet till i meet the realtors who freeking lie to get people calling them to show another fuked up property.
poland_
27 Jan 2013 #213
3k a sq m to 24 k a sq m

I only invested in new builds with personal invites.
peterweg 37 | 2,321
28 Jan 2013 #214
a bubble bursts, it doesn't steadily decrease- this is the world wide definition, not mine. we are experiencing a steady decrease, not a burst.

No, its not the definition of a bubble, Can you show me this definition, I've never seen it before. This is wiki's definition -

An economic bubble (sometimes referred to as a speculative bubble, a market bubble, a price bubble, a financial bubble, a speculative mania or a balloon) is "trade in high volumes at prices that are considerably at variance with intrinsic values". It could also be described as a trade in products or assets with inflated values.

What happens after to a bubble is irrelevant. You argument that prices will fall gradually - not crash - may or may nor be true, however a bubble describes the rise in prices, not a fall.

Time will tell what happens to prices.

Commiserations on buying in 2010. I bought in 2009, at the peak of the market apparently.
pip 10 | 1,661
28 Jan 2013 #215
Definition of 'Housing Bubble'
A run-up in housing prices fueled by demand, speculation and the belief that recent history is an infallible forecast of the future. Housing bubbles usually start with an increase in demand (a shift to the right in the demand curve), in the face of limited supply which takes a relatively long period of time to replenish and increase. Speculators enter the market, believing that profits can be made through short-term buying and selling. This further drives demand.

At some point, demand decreases (a shift to the left in the demand curve), or stagnates at the same time supply increases, resulting in a sharp drop in prices - and the bubble bursts.

Read more: investopedia.com/terms/h/housing_bubble.asp#ixzz2JJFEdr7F
f stop 25 | 2,513
29 Jan 2013 #216
pip
the graph on the link below, that's not a bubble?

globalpropertyguide.com/Europe/Poland/Price-History
MoOli 9 | 484
29 Jan 2013 #217
I only invested in new builds with personal invites.

Bro can you hook me up? Im seriously looking for something at the moment.
pip 10 | 1,661
29 Jan 2013 #218
pip
the graph on the link below, that's not a bubble?

House prices in Warsaw are down by 13.1%
In Cracow, house prices are down by 17.9%
In Poznan, house prices have fallen by 28%
In Gdańsk, house prices plunged by 27%
In Lodz, property prices plummeted by 35.7%

I wouldn't say these numbers from this article are showing that there is a bubble.
milky 13 | 1,657
29 Jan 2013 #219
This woman is claiming prices will return to pre-boom prices.
pip 10 | 1,661
29 Jan 2013 #220
I doubt that. However, a study just came out, I think it is Price Waterhouse, I could be wrong though, saying that Poland is not set to show real signs of major slow down until 2035. Of course, there is no way of ever knowing this is true until we reach that year- there will be highs and lows along the way.

What are pre boom prices considered to be?
InWroclaw 89 | 1,915
29 Jan 2013 #221
What are pre boom prices considered to be?

Roughly a third of what they are now.

Anyone able to translate or give a brief transcript of the report and say who it was with that pessimistic analysis? thanks
milky 13 | 1,657
29 Jan 2013 #222
saying that Poland is not set to show real signs of major slow down until 2035

hahahahahahahahahaahahahahhaahahahah

What are pre boom prices considered to be?

before the bubble lol
pip 10 | 1,661
29 Jan 2013 #223
pip: saying that Poland is not set to show real signs of major slow down until 2035
hahahahahahahahahaahahahahhaahahahah
pip: What are pre boom prices considered to be?
before the bubble lol

and this is probably why you don't any property while a few of us here own a few. Keep going, you are having great success.
Ziemowit 13 | 4,063
29 Jan 2013 #224
Pip, you don't understand one basic thing: if someone repeats a thing a thousand times, this becomes a sacred true. If someone says there is a bubble a thousand times, that buble exists and that is all there is to it !!!
MoOli 9 | 484
29 Jan 2013 #225
saying that Poland is not set to show real signs of major slow down until 2035.

Maybe they are right in there own way,its like22 years to come.There are ups and downs in 2 decades,and maybe they are predicting the worse slow down then.The current slow down I think will continue till 2015/16 when it will bottom out,but the slow down now will be gradual(I think),until banks choke,people will collect money and cant wait to invest(like its happening in states now) and slowly the market picks up.
InWroclaw 89 | 1,915
29 Jan 2013 #226
Roughly a third of what they are now.

I should say I base that on what Wroclaw Boy posted the other day about a house near Partynice. I could be wrong of course, I could be way, way out. Perhaps for flats, it's almost half what they are now and for houses perhaps 60% less than now. Adjusting for inflation, however, I ain't got a clue. I should add that unlike perhaps some of the posters on this thread, I am in no way a trained economist or property professional -- so take my remarks with a pinch of salt :o)

Anyone able to translate or give a brief transcript of the report Milky posted and say who it was with that pessimistic analysis? thanks
poland_
29 Jan 2013 #227
Bro can you hook me up? Im seriously looking for something at the moment.

You have to be part of the Spółdzielnia. This was done by buying a share in the company many years ago, now they are not taking anymore investors on as they have a large enough client base. Approach developers and ask them to put you on the list for new builds.
InWroclaw 89 | 1,915
29 Jan 2013 #228
people will collect money and cant wait to invest(like its happening in states now) and slowly the market picks up.

Because of the risk of inflation?
pip 10 | 1,661
29 Jan 2013 #229
Pip, you don't understand one basic thing: if someone repeats a thing a thousand times, this becomes a sacred true. If someone says there is a bubble a thousand times, that buble exists and that is all there is to it !!!

I think I have to stay away from this thread because I end up banging my head against a brick wall.
milky 13 | 1,657
29 Jan 2013 #230
Because your unconscious mind is telling you something that is creating dissonance in your mind.

The theory of cognitive dissonance in social psychology proposes that people have a motivational drive to reduce dissonance by altering existing cognitions, adding new ones to create a consistent belief system, or alternatively by reducing the importance of any one of the dissonant elements.[1] It is the distressing mental state that people feel when they "find themselves doing things that don't fit with what they know, or having opinions that do not fit with other opinions they hold." [4] A key assumption is that people want their expectations to meet reality, creating a sense of equilibrium.

and as for bubble denial
Likewise, another assumption is that a person will avoid situations or information sources that give rise to feelings of uneasiness, or dissonance.[1]
peterweg 37 | 2,321
29 Jan 2013 #231
and this is probably why you don't any property while a few of us here own a few. Keep going, you are having great success.

You lose more off the value of your property each year than Milky will ever earn, he's such a loser!

Latest REAS report is out.

media.reas.pl/en/pr/232656/residential-market-in-poland-in-q4-2012?rss=true
Avalon 4 | 1,068
29 Jan 2013 #232
A key assumption is that people want their expectations to meet reality

I still don't see new apartments for sale at 1,500 zloty m2 in the city centres yet, do you? Have you managed to save a deposit after four years? The only expectations you are likely to have is a novel written by Charles Dickens.
poland_
29 Jan 2013 #233
However, a study just came out, I think it is Price Waterhouse, I could be wrong though, saying that Poland is not set to show real signs of major slow down until 2035

Here is the WBJ's write up on the PWC report wbj.pl/article-61672-steady-then-slower-growth.html

It si not exactly hoe you have described it Pip it states the Polish economy will grow on average by 2% per annum until it comes into line with Germany. In essence it is saying the heady days are over and we are back to reality.

Here is another article from the WBJ on the same day wbj.pl/article-61661-nearly-half-of-polish-companies-in-bad-financial-shape.html
ismellnonsense - | 118
30 Jan 2013 #234
It si not exactly hoe you have described it Pip it states the Polish economy will grow on average by 2% per annum until it comes into line with Germany. In essence it is saying the heady days are over and we are back to reality.

thats ok
i can accept 2% per annum
but wont it take a long time at that rate

you never know how 2011-2018 financial settlement will look too
could be that the eu will be booming and poland will gain lots
Ziemowit 13 | 4,063
30 Jan 2013 #235
The theory of cognitive dissonance in social psychology proposes that people have a motivational drive to reduce dissonance by altering existing cognitions, adding new ones to create a consistent belief system, [...]

Having read your lecture in social physiology directed at Pip, I strongly find that the contents of this lecture matches yourself to a much greater degree than Pip or anyone else taking part in the discussions of this thread
daisy109 - | 2
30 Jan 2013 #237
with all the respect....well it depends ...as u said the market is not blooming it is in crisis...and yes it is true...wages are low and jobs insecure but speaking about English housing people here in their blocks of flats may feel like bathing in luxury...there s a world of difference ....between nice warm snug and cosy Polish flat and mouldy musty x-bed in the Uk...and there are milions of Poles who invest in Poland saving each single penny on a flat or house here...
peterweg 37 | 2,321
2 Feb 2013 #238
Definition of 'Housing Bubble'

Like this?

/img/poland-house-prices.gif - Not a bubble, not popping
Avalon 4 | 1,068
2 Feb 2013 #239
We have agreed in earlier posts, that between 2004-2008 prices increased by some 243% (100% in one year) and yet, the graph you are using to illustrate your point, only goes up to 50%. I'm sure you will explain it to me.
pip 10 | 1,661
2 Feb 2013 #240
and me, please.


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